Group 1: Tongcheng Travel (同程旅行) - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 9% and profit growth of 13% in Q3, indicating stable growth despite weak performance in the travel industry due to overseas disruptions [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is set at HKD 25.50, representing a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 21.68, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Tmall International (滔搏国际) - For the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, Tmall International's revenue is projected to decline by 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 9.8% to RMB 790 million, which is in line with expectations [2][3] - The company aims to maintain a flat year-on-year net profit for the full year, with an improvement in net profit margin, despite ongoing sales pressure and increased discounts [2][3] Group 3: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,160, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 27.24% [4] - Major commodities such as Brent crude oil and gold have shown price fluctuations, with Brent down 11.53% year-to-date and gold up 56.64% [4] - The report highlights the performance of various global indices, with the S&P 500 up 15.47% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up 20.17% [4] Group 4: Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. durable goods orders for September, expected to decline by 2.7%, and China's manufacturing PMI for October, anticipated to be at 49.80 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.50, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price of HKD 21.54 [1][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a 9% year-on-year revenue growth and a 13% increase in profit for the third quarter, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 15% to RMB 4.6 billion [5][6]. - Adjustments have been made to the financial forecasts for 2025-2027, with total revenue estimates for 2025 set at RMB 19.232 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.9% [4][12]. - The report highlights that the travel industry is facing challenges due to weak demand for group tours in certain overseas regions, impacting overall performance [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 19,232 million, RMB 21,466 million, and RMB 23,703 million respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are RMB 3,390 million, RMB 3,813 million, and RMB 4,278 million, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with slight improvements projected over the forecast period [4][12]. Performance Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 49.996 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 18.35% [3][12]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 24.28 and a low of HKD 16.88, indicating significant price movement within the year [3][12]. - Daily average trading volume stands at 5.46 million shares, reflecting active trading interest [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 2.98, indicating a potential downside of 14.4% from the current price of HKD 3.48 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sales pressure in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, with a revenue of RMB 12.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8%. This decline is attributed to fluctuations in consumer demand for sports products and foot traffic in physical stores [6]. - Despite operational challenges, the company has managed to control gross margin and expense ratios effectively, with a gross margin of 41.0% and a net profit margin of 6.4% for the first half of the fiscal year [6]. - The management has set guidance for the full year, aiming for net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with expectations for improved net profit margins [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a decline from RMB 28,933 million in 2024 to RMB 25,856 million in 2026E, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.6% in 2025 [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to recover slightly from RMB 1,285 million in 2025 to RMB 1,299 million in 2026E, with a net profit margin of 5.0% [5][14]. - The company has a dividend yield of 6.6% for 2026E, which is expected to provide some downside protection for the stock price [6]. Brand Performance and Strategy - The main brand's performance has shown resilience, with a decline of 4.8% compared to a 12.2% drop in other brands. The company is focusing on optimizing brand structure and enhancing online and offline channel management [6]. - The company plans to deepen its focus on running and outdoor segments, with new brand developments and the opening of the first ektos running store [6]. Store and Online Strategy - The company continues to adjust its store structure, with a net reduction of 332 direct stores to 4,688 as of August 2025, and a total sales area decrease of 14.1% [6]. - Online retail business has seen double-digit growth year-on-year, indicating a shift towards a more integrated retail model combining offline and online strategies [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies at the ESMO conference, suggesting that Q4 2025 will see increased focus on policies, academic conferences, and business development catalysts [1][2] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market, with CXO, internet pharmaceuticals, and biopharmaceuticals showing better performance [1] - Institutional holdings in the pharmaceutical sector have seen fluctuations, with a slight decrease in domestic holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investments have also been declining since mid-year [1] Market Review - The report notes that since October, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant price volatility, but the overall trend remains focused on innovative drug investments, particularly in companies with clear pipeline values and cost-effectiveness [1][2] - Key companies such as Kangfang Biotech, Rongchang Biotech, Kelun-Botai, and others presented significant data at the ESMO conference, indicating a potential market revival as industry catalysts increase [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like 3SBio and DQ Pharma, which have rich short-term catalysts and whose valuations do not yet reflect the value of their core products [2] - It also suggests that CXO companies, benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, should be prioritized, with WuXi AppTec highlighted as a leading player in this segment [2]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of the ESMO conference, highlighting the achievements of Chinese pharmaceutical companies and suggesting to focus on catalysts such as policies, academic conferences, and business development in Q4 2025 [1][4] - The report indicates a potential market rebound due to increasing industry catalysts, including various academic conferences and favorable policies [4] - The report recommends continued attention to companies with promising clinical pipelines and their global commercialization potential [4][5] Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview of various companies, with all covered companies rated as "Buy" except for two rated as "Neutral" and one as "Sell" [3] - Notable target prices and current prices for selected companies include: - AstraZeneca: Target price 93.30, Current price 83.87 [3] - BeiGene: Target price 225.00, Current price 188.20 [3] - Innovent Biologics: Target price 48.00, Current price 36.42 [3] - I-Mab: Target price 105.00, Current price 86.10 [3] - China Biologic Products: Target price 9.10, Current price 7.43 [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 2.0% during the week of October 14-21, 2025, ranking fifth among twelve industry indices [4][7] - Sub-industry performance showed CXO leading with a 4.5% increase, followed by Internet medicine and biopharmaceuticals [4][7] Institutional Holdings - As of October 21, 2025, the proportion of domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased slightly to 22.1%, while foreign institutional holdings also saw a minor decline to 38.6% [34][38] - The report notes that both domestic and foreign investors are increasing their positions in innovative drug companies with clear pipeline values [4][38] Clinical Developments - The report highlights significant clinical trial results presented at the ESMO conference, including: - CanSino Biologics' promising data on its PD-1/VEGF inhibitor [5][6] - Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals' HER2 ADC showing significant survival benefits [5][6] - Kelun-Biotech's results indicating substantial improvements in progression-free survival [5][6] - The report suggests that these developments enhance the global competitiveness of the covered companies [5][6]

Group 1: Baidu (BIDU US) - The report anticipates that advertising revenue will bottom out in the second half of the year, with a reassessment of the value of cloud services and autonomous driving [1] - Revenue forecasts for Baidu's core business have been adjusted downwards by approximately 2-3% for 2025-27, with operating profit estimates lowered by 5-13% [1] - The target price has been adjusted to $147, reflecting a 23.4% potential upside, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [1] Group 2: Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - Innovent Biologics has announced a global strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical, involving two late-stage candidates, IBI363 and IBI343, and an early-stage project, IBI3001 [2][3] - The total transaction value could reach up to $11.4 billion, including an upfront payment of $1.2 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $10.2 billion [2][3] - The collaboration is expected to maximize the long-term commercialization prospects of the two products globally, particularly in the gastrointestinal and digestive tract oncology fields [3] Group 3: Kintor Pharmaceutical (6990 HK) - Kintor's ADC product, Sac-TMT, has shown significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in a Phase III study presented at the ESMO 2025 conference [7][8] - The median PFS was reported at 8.3 months compared to 4.2 months for the control group, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.49, indicating a statistically significant improvement [7] - The target price has been raised to HKD 549, reflecting a positive outlook based on the recent clinical data [8] Group 4: Pop Mart (9992 HK) - Pop Mart has demonstrated strong sales growth, with Q3 2025 revenue expected to increase by 245-250% year-on-year, accelerating from a 204% increase in the first half of the year [9][10] - The domestic market revenue is projected to grow by 185-190%, while overseas markets are expected to see a remarkable growth rate of 365-370% [9] - The target price has been raised to HKD 401.60, indicating a potential upside of 60.4%, supported by the company's strong growth momentum and upcoming product launches [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Pop Mart (9992 HK) [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sustained growth momentum, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts and target price, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [2][6][7]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 401.60, indicating a potential upside of 60.4% from the current price of HKD 250.40 [1][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been increased by 11%, with expectations of continued sales momentum into Q4 due to the retail peak season [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with 2025 revenue estimated at RMB 35,899 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 175.3% [5][16]. - Net profit for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 12,421 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 296.7% [5][16]. Market Growth Dynamics - The company reported a 245-250% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with the domestic market growing by 185-190% and overseas markets experiencing a remarkable growth of 365-370% [6][7]. - The domestic market's online sales grew by 300-305%, driven by effective live-streaming e-commerce and refined online membership operations [6][7]. - The overseas market, particularly the Americas, showed exceptional performance, with revenue growth of 1265-1270% in Q3 [6][7]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report anticipates an increase in profit margins, with gross profit margin expected to reach 70.8% in 2025 [8][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 24.5 times for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation given the expected growth [5][16]. - The report notes that the company’s ability to monetize its IP platform continues to strengthen, with significant contributions expected from new IPs and product innovations [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kolun Biotechnology (6990 HK), with a target price of HKD 549.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current closing price of HKD 471.00 [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant clinical advancements of the company's ADC products, particularly Sac-TMT, which has set a new benchmark for treating EGFR mutation-resistant NSCLC. The results from the Phase III OptiTROP-Lung04 study showed a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 8.3 months compared to 4.2 months for the control group, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.49 [2]. - The report also notes that the application for market approval for Sac-TMT was granted in October, further enhancing the company's growth prospects [2]. - The financial forecasts for the company have been adjusted upwards, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 increased by 0-5%, leading to a peak sales forecast of RMB 64 billion for Sac-TMT and RMB 11 billion for another product [7]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 2,050 million in 2025, with a gross profit of RMB 1,322 million, maintaining a gross margin of 64.5% [7][14]. - The net profit for 2026 is expected to turn positive at RMB 50 million, with a significant increase to RMB 751 million by 2027 [7][14]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 76.66 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 188.43% [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 116.38 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 549.00 [8]. - The model incorporates a perpetual growth rate of 3% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4% [8]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a strong performance over the past year, with a significant increase compared to the Hang Seng Index [3]. - The 52-week high for the stock is HKD 577.50, while the low is HKD 154.00, indicating substantial volatility and growth potential [4]. Clinical Data Highlights - The report emphasizes the clinical efficacy of Sac-TMT in treating NSCLC and HR+/HER2- breast cancer, with significant improvements in PFS and overall survival (OS) rates compared to existing therapies [2][6]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing ADC market, supported by robust clinical data and regulatory approvals [7].

Group 1: Chinese Economy - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience in the first three quarters of 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, and a quarterly growth of 4.8% in Q3, maintaining a reasonable operational range [3][4] - Domestic demand continues to contribute steadily to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 53.5% of GDP growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [4] - The total import and export volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with exports growing by 7.1%, highlighting the global competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing [4] Group 2: Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue for Q2 of FY2026 is expected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year, with the overall e-commerce business projected to incur a loss of approximately 37.6 billion yuan due to significant subsidies [5][6] - The cloud business is anticipated to accelerate further, with revenue expected to exceed 30% year-on-year, while maintaining stable profit margins [5] - The target price for Alibaba is maintained at $200, reflecting a potential upside of 15.3% from the current closing price of $173.47 [5][6] Group 3: Rongchang Bio - Rongchang Bio's core product has shown excellent clinical data for a major indication, leading to an upward revision of the target price to HKD 109, indicating a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of HKD 92.50 [9][10] - The data presented at the ESMO conference for the combination therapy of Vidisic and T demonstrated significant survival benefits compared to chemotherapy [9] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing international multi-center studies in collaboration with Pfizer [9] Group 4: CATL (Ningde Times) - CATL reported a robust profit margin of 17.8% in Q3, with revenue reaching 104.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and a net profit of 18.6 billion yuan, up 41.2% year-on-year [11][12] - The demand for energy storage is projected to be the largest driver of lithium battery demand in 2025, with a 104% year-on-year increase in new bidding scale for energy storage in China [12] - The target price for CATL has been raised to 458.75 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price of 366.50 yuan [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $200.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.3% from the current price of $173.47 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of Alibaba's AI and cloud businesses, emphasizing the company's comprehensive AI strategy and its efforts to restructure its e-commerce framework through instant retail investments [2][8]. - The financial forecasts for Alibaba show a slight increase in total revenue projections for FY26E to RMB 1,040,807 million, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5% [6][10]. - The report notes that Alibaba's stock price has recently experienced a pullback, with projected P/E ratios for FY25/26 at 23 and 21 times, respectively [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Total revenue for FY26E is projected at RMB 1,040,807 million, with a growth rate of 4.5% [6][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit for FY26E is expected to be RMB 117,622 million, with a net profit margin of 11.3% [6][10]. - **Segment Performance**: The report provides detailed segment forecasts, indicating that the Chinese e-commerce group is expected to generate RMB 572,000 million in revenue for FY26E, while the cloud intelligence group is projected to reach RMB 151,900 million [9][10]. Business Outlook - **E-commerce**: The report anticipates that GMV growth will align with market trends, with a focus on the impact of instant retail on user engagement and monetization capabilities [8][9]. - **Cloud Business**: Revenue growth for the cloud segment is expected to exceed 30%, with stable profit margins [8][9]. - **Other Ventures**: The report mentions the successful launch of AI products and their integration into various business lines, which may influence overall profitability [8][9].