Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, 80,000 in 2026, and 160,000 in 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 19.5% by 2027 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for Kuaishou's AI capabilities, with a focus on increasing investment in inference computing power and R&D talent, which may impact profit margins by 1-2 percentage points [8]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025 are maintained at 12%, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 113.47 billion in 2023 to RMB 164.07 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit margins remaining stable around 14% [3][28]. - The report notes a decrease in the forecasted EPS for 2025 by 8% to RMB 4.60, reflecting adjustments in profit expectations [8]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the number of active merchants [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment showed strong growth, with monthly payment users and GMV increasing by 52% and 100% respectively [8]. Valuation and Market Performance - The report maintains a valuation premium for Kuaishou based on its leading AI video generation capabilities, applying a 13x P/E ratio for the 2025 estimates [8]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36%, with a 52-week high of HKD 66.35 and a low of HKD 38.15 [6][27].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 502.00 | 港元 583.00 | +16.1% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | 常青游戏贡献总收入 20%，MOBA/射击优势显著，海外增长领先行业 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7. ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 25.90 | 港元 25.00↑ | -3.5% | | | 药明生物 (2269 HK) | | | | | | 2H24 业绩复苏，RDM 三大业务端边际改善确定性较强，上调目标价 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2269 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 28.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 10.26 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 106,372.34 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 34.12 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 47.49 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 18.39 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 康诺亚 (2162 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 57.00, indicating a potential upside of 42.7% from the closing price of HKD 39.95 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - 康诺亚 is expected to achieve sales of RMB 500 million in its first year, driven by multiple competitive advantages such as multi-indication approvals and superior clinical data compared to competitors [3][7]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of RMB 2.16 billion, which is projected to support stable development over the next three years [7]. - The sales growth for 康悦达 (the company's product) is anticipated to be propelled by its approval for multiple indications, a well-established commercialization team, and effective market access strategies [7][8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 689 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.6% from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [6][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 478 million, with a gross margin of 69.5%, down from 74.4% in prior estimates [6][13]. - The net loss for 2025 is projected to be RMB 870 million, widening from RMB 840 million in the previous forecast [6][13]. Market Position and Strategy - 康诺亚 has established a commercialization team of approximately 300 personnel, effectively covering over 1,100 hospitals across more than 220 cities [7]. - The company is expected to submit applications for additional indications in the first half of 2025, which could further enhance its market presence [7]. - Despite competitive pricing pressures, 康诺亚 is positioned to leverage its superior efficacy data to capture market share [7].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 2.04 | 港元 2.46↑ | +20.6% | | | 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) | | | | | 2024 年经营开支控制优于预期，每股分红仍慷慨 财务数据一览 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 20,446 | 20,562 | 21,883 | 23,666 | 25,408 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.1 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 7.4 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 3,150 | 3,343 | 3,703 | 4,134 | 4,550 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0 ...

交银国际研究 今日焦点 宏观策略 | 宏观策略 | | --- | | 港股回调后的分歧与等待 | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com 短期利好落地后，资金在当前位置出现分歧，港股高位回调。上周初港 股在两厅印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》的政策利好带动下上攻，恒 指一度逼近 25000 点高位。随着短期乐观情绪逐步消化，且主要龙头公 司业绩公布后，港股回吐部分涨幅。 海外风险再定价，风险偏好料继续回落，市场情绪预计维持谨慎。过去 一个阶段，市场受乐观情绪驱动，对海外风险定价有所不足。随着近期 利好落地后，市场对海外风险的关注度预计将逐渐提升。4 月 2 号，美 国对等关税调查结果即将出炉，是否会有新一波的关税仍有不确定性。 若短期海外影响有进一步催化，港股或有望阶段性企稳。 基本面数据持续验证中，四月中央政治局会议或为重要政策新节点。 1Q25"开门红"效应下，内地生产、投资端数据表现强劲。进入四月， 后续消费、地产等各项基本面的增长数据、以及关税等外部影响将成为 市场关注重点，也是四月底中央政治局会议会否释放更进一步政策刺激 信号的关键。 | 快手 | | | 1024 HK | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 503.25, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current closing price of HKD 403.40 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, driven by export expansion and advancements in intelligent driving technology. The report emphasizes the dual engines of growth: increased exports and the democratization of intelligent driving features [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at RMB 777.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 40.254 billion, a 34% increase [7][8]. - The report highlights that BYD's sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 4.27 million vehicles, representing a 41.2% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 33.2% in the new energy vehicle sector [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 602,315 in 2023 to 977,249 in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 30,041 million RMB in 2023 to 52,460 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a CAGR of 30.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 13.33 in 2023 to RMB 23.28 in 2025E, indicating strong profitability growth [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.2 in 2023 to 16.2 in 2025E, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [3]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is expected to leverage its self-built roll-on/roll-off fleet and expanding overseas factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Hungary to boost export volumes significantly [7]. - The introduction of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system aims to make high-level autonomous driving features accessible in lower-priced models, enhancing market penetration [7]. - The report anticipates that sales will reach 5.23 million vehicles in 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in exports and intelligent driving technology [7].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 蔚来汽车 | | 9866 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 业绩不及预期，降本增效下 | 2 季度估值或迎来拐 | 评级: 买入 | | 点，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 35.90 | 目标价: 港元 48.96↓ | 潜在涨幅: +36.4% | | 陈庆 | angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 2024 年业绩超市场预期，阿美乐表现亮眼：收入和净利润分别增长 21.3%/33.4%至 123 亿/43.7 亿元，阿美乐全年销售额同比增长 29%。管理层 对于 2025 年的指引包括：1）全年收入录得双位数增速，其中创新药产品收 入 100 亿元，同比增长 25%以上；2）阿美乐销售达到 60 亿元；3）派息率 与 2024 年相似水平。 创新管线蓄势待发，长期高成长能见度强：1）两款已出海 ADC：GSK 计划 于 4Q25 启动 B7H3 ADC 的注册研究，B7H4 ADC 今年读出 I 期数据，2026 年 进入注册临床；2）GLP-1 系列管线：GIP/GLP-1 双靶 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 3 月 20 日 2025 年 3 月 20 日 全球宏观 滞胀预期下的降息挑战—美联储 3 月 FOMC 会议点评 2025 年 3 月 19 日，美联储 FOMC 会议连续第二次维持利率不变，符合市场及 我们的预期。 从当前特朗普及其财政部长等幕僚成员释放的信号来看，关税政策、减少支出 可能势在必行，市场先前所期望的"软着陆"路径的概率正在不断降低，而降 息的门槛也在不断提高。同时，硬着陆的经济和政治成本较高，也不会是特朗 普政府所看到的局面，因而浅衰退降息的概率正在上升。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 从本次会议后资本市场的交易变化来看，美股三大指数上涨、美债长短利 率回落、美元跌，因而市场对此次会议的解读相对偏鸽派。但从本次会议 的内容来看，我们观察到利率声明、经济预测摘要、点阵图都是相对偏鹰 的，而缩表方面则有意外放缓 ...