交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 利率曲线更易呈现走陡格局。若"传统回归"成为其框架主线，则意味 着美联储对长端利率与风险资产波动的容忍度提高，资产负债表工具更 趋克制，从而期限溢价的压制力量减弱，长端利率中枢反而可能更 "粘"、甚至阶段性上行，最终更易呈现"短端下、长端不下"的曲线 走陡格局，美元在独立性叙事不被破坏的前提下，中期反而更易走强。 波动率中枢或会经历系统性抬升。随着美联储逐步退出微观管理，资产 价格将更多地由基本面而非流动性幻觉决定——未来的市场，尤其是权 益市场，将在更真实的波动中寻找新的平衡。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 年初至今 升跌% | | 恒指 | 26,560 | -1.23 | 2.50 | | 国指 | 9,031 | -0.68 | 1.32 | | 上 A | 4,263 | -0.25 | 2.44 | | 上 B | 263 | -0.28 | 3.59 | | 深 A | 2,772 | -0.04 | 4.69 | | 深 B | 1,244 | 0.00 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% AMD US 标普500 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 264.33 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (美元) | 78.21 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 325,917.33 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 106.02 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (6.52) | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 203.79 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 200.19 | 美元 275.00 | +37.4% | | | 超微半导体 (AMD US) | | | | | | 关注数据中心执行落地；维持买入 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomg ...

长城汽车(02333):料今年盈利弹性取决于提效,维持"买入"评级 交银国际(0.39,0.00,0.00%)发布研报称，长城汽车(13.08,0.00,0.00%)(02333)去年营收2,227.9亿元人 民币(下同)，同比增长10.2%，纯利跌21.7%至99.12亿元，主要受直营渠道建设及新品/品牌投放前置拖累。公 司去年第四季营收692.1亿元创新高，但纯利仅12.77亿元，按季跌44%，主因一次性计提年终奖(预提46亿元) 叠加直营与广告投入、新店爬坡。展望2026年，该行料长汽盈利弹性取决于提效，海外挑战60万辆与直营提效 带动利润修复。该行维持对长汽的"买入"评级，目标价22.5港元。 交银国际 ...

交银国际(0.39,0.00,0.00%)发布研报称，维持对荣昌生物(81.65,0.00,0.00%)(09995)的"买入"评级及 目标价136港元，今年看好公司泰它西普MGIII期入组和SSIII期启动、维迪西妥首个海外BLA申报和1LUCIII期 数据读出;内地泰它西普MG适应症纳入医保后的销售放量，以及SS、IgAN等大适应症的获批;早期品种 (RC148、RC118、新型ADCRC278等)更多适应症的推进，相关数据读出有望持续催化股价。 荣昌生物发盈喜，预期去年营业收入约32.5亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长约89%，净利润约7.16亿元，扣 非净利润约7,850万元，均同比扭亏为盈。该行认为是次业绩表现显著超出该行及市场此前预期，且盈利拐点 出现时点亦较此前判断明显前移。 剔除对外授权和公允价值收益对利润的贡献，该行预计荣昌生物去年第四季主业已实现或接近盈亏平衡， 早于该行此前的预期。随着泰它西普和RC148出海后、更多研发费用由海外合作伙伴承担，该行看好今年主业 利润率进一步改善的空间。 荣昌生物(09995):盈利拐点出现时点明显前移,维持"买入"评级 交银国际 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The automotive market in January 2026 experienced a seasonal downturn, with a notable decline in demand due to the impact of subsidy policies and adjustments in purchase tax. Most new energy vehicle manufacturers saw a significant month-on-month sales drop of 43.9% [3][4]. - Despite the overall weak performance in the first quarter of 2026, the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy is expected to support market recovery as local subsidy details are finalized [4]. - Companies to watch include: - Xpeng Motors (9868 HK/XPEV US) with new models launching and increasing overseas production [4]. - Geely Automobile (175 HK) focusing on internal resource integration post-privatization of Zeekr [4]. - BYD (1211 HK) benefiting from increased overseas production capacity and high growth in international sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - BYD's January sales were 205,518 units, down 30.7% year-on-year and 50.4% month-on-month. However, exports surged by 43.3% to 100,009 units, with overseas sales accounting for 47.6% of total sales [6][7]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a 96.1% year-on-year increase but a 43.5% month-on-month decline. The introduction of new financing options is expected to ease purchasing barriers [6][7]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, down 34.1% year-on-year and 46.6% month-on-month, with the new X9 model showing significant growth [6][7]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 27,668 units, reflecting a slight decline due to product cycle impacts [6][7]. - Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 39,000 units, marking a 95% year-on-year increase [6][7]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - The report includes various companies with their respective ratings and target prices, indicating potential upside: - BYD (1211 HK) with a target price of 133.00, representing a 36.06% upside [8]. - NIO (9866 HK) with a target price of 62.75, indicating a 62.48% upside [8]. - Xpeng (9868 HK) with a target price of 134.69, suggesting an 87.98% upside [8].

| 电池 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 11.54 | 港元 15.46 | +33.9% | | | 瑞浦兰钧 (666 HK) | | | | | | 公司更新 交银国际研究 | 52周高位 (港元) | 16.48 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 9.09 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 10,783.21 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 3.53 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (13.17) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 13.18 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 李柳晓, PhD, CFA 规模效应 + 集成化转型，2025 年实现扭亏为盈；维持买入 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 666 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 ...

Market Overview - The market is transitioning from strong expectations to a "data verification" phase as the Spring Festival approaches, with a focus on marginal improvements in fundamental data[3] - Southbound capital continues to flow into the market, supporting Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to experience a "stock-heavy, index-light" structural market[3] Key Variables for February - Attention will be on post-Spring Festival consumption data, including tourism, dining, and real estate sales, which may reflect the effectiveness of the "resident income increase plan" and domestic demand expansion[4] - The upcoming "Two Sessions" will provide insights into fiscal policies, particularly regarding long-term special bonds and "new productivity," which could influence market sentiment towards infrastructure and technology sectors[4] - The market's confidence in the Fed's interest rate cuts may be affected by resilient U.S. inflation data, necessitating close monitoring of the dollar index's impact on Hong Kong stock liquidity[4] Sector Focus - Consumer and internet sectors are expected to benefit from positive Spring Festival data, with a focus on policy-driven areas like hospitality and food and beverage[5] - Hard technology and overseas manufacturing sectors are promising, particularly in semiconductors and consumer electronics, as well as leading companies in engineering machinery and home appliances[5] - Upstream resource products, such as copper and aluminum, are anticipated to perform well due to a recovering global manufacturing PMI and post-holiday inventory replenishment expectations[5] Stock Recommendations - **Cheung Kong Property Trust (778HK)**: Target price of HKD 5.92, potential upside of 15.9%, with a strong dividend yield over 7%[9] - **NVIDIA (NVDAUS)**: Target price of USD 245.00, potential upside of 27.3%, driven by sustainable AI demand[13] - **Hesai Technology (2525HK)**: Target price of HKD 269.66, potential upside of 35.0%, benefiting from L3 autonomous driving advancements[20] - **Sangfor Technologies (1530HK)**: Target price of HKD 39.50, potential upside of 65.1%, with strong growth prospects from core products[27] - **Midea Group (000333CH)**: Target price of HKD 96.20, potential upside of 23.5%, supported by robust market leadership and dividend policies[32] - **GCL-Poly Energy (3800HK)**: Target price of HKD 1.54, potential upside of 37.5%, benefiting from developments in perovskite technology and commercial aerospace[38]

交银国际研究 行业剖析 2026 年 1 月 28 日 消费行业 行业前瞻洞察系列： 零食量贩行业——效率重塑的下半场 作为硬折扣模式在零食零售行业的成功应用，零食量贩业态顺应了消费者对质 价比与便捷购物的需求趋势，实现了对传统渠道的效率升级。我们认为，当前 行业发展将逐步从门店扩张为主过渡到以精细化运营和单店价值提升的高质量 增长阶段。当前"南很忙、北万辰"的头部企业格局已趋稳固，竞争焦点将逐 步从规模扩张和份额争夺转向效率兑现与业态升级。因此，业态演进和盈利能 力提升将是未来关注的重点。本报告中，我们聚焦零食量贩行业这一新兴业 态，拆解商业逻辑、前瞻行业发展趋势、以及剖析竞争格局，为把握该新兴业 态提供投资参考。 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 1/25 5/25 9/25 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 行业表现 恒生指数 肖凯希 cathy.xiao@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1856 钱昊, CFA Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1853 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 今日焦点 | 消费行业 | | | --- | --- | | 行业前瞻洞察系列： | | | 零食量贩行业——效率重塑的下半场 | | | 肖凯希 | cathy.xiao@bocomgroup.com | 以效率重塑零食零售价值链的硬折扣模型：零食量贩的成功在于对渠道 价值链的有效重构。它通过压缩中间流通环节、规模化直采的硬折扣模 型，将终端加价率大幅压缩，从而形成了较传统渠道便宜两到三成的可 持续的价格优势，充分顺应了当下消费者追求质价比的消费趋势。 未来增长动力将逐步从门店扩张转向单店价值提升：零食量贩行业的未 来增长依旧可观，驱动因素主要包括门店扩张与单店价值提升。我们测 算中期全国门店天花板约为 6.7 万家，较当前仍有超过三成的增长空间 ，下沉市场与空白区域将成为主要增量来源。之后，随着门店数量接近 中期目标，增长动能将逐步转向单店潜力的挖掘。 "双强"格局下的盈利释放周期有望逐步开启：行业已形成集中度较高 、且相对稳定的"双强"格局。对于头部企业而言，规模效应的进一步 显现将带来盈利能力的提升，净利率水平有可观的上行空间，主要依靠 采购成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 19.50, indicating a potential downside of 0.3% from the closing price of HKD 19.55 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in retail sales, but recovery momentum remains uncertain. The overall operations are still in a bottoming phase, with management indicating that the previously provided guidance for slight revenue growth and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be achieved [3][8]. - The company is benefiting from effective cost control and government subsidies, which support the maintenance of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The upcoming sports events in 2026 are expected to enhance brand marketing and market attention, potentially increasing long-term brand value [8]. - Offline channels continue to face pressure, with discount levels deepening to around 60%, reflecting competitive industry dynamics. The e-commerce channel's growth has weakened compared to previous quarters [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27,598 million - 2024: RMB 28,676 million (7.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 28,929 million (3.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 30,286 million (0.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 31,206 million (4.7% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,187 million - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,664 million - 2026E: RMB 3,007 million - 2027E: RMB 3,370 million [4][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: RMB 1.23 - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.03 - 2026E: RMB 1.17 - 2027E: RMB 1.31 [4][21]. Market Position and Strategy - As of the end of Q4 2025, the inventory turnover ratio has returned to a healthy level of 4-5 months, achieving the company's target. The total number of Li Ning stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 41 to 6,091 [8]. - The company is actively optimizing its store network, with the first "Dragon Store" model launched in December [8].