各位投资者大家好欢迎来到我们两荣半月谈线上策略会我们每两周会举办一次邀请的是业内大咖以及行业专家为我们带来当下最热话题的参考和思考本期是第73期这期我们邀请的是我们中心箭头海外经济和大类资产手机分析师钱维老师这段时间也是美国大选结束后的一周 然后这一周的话是我们观察资产价格表现的一个最佳最佳的一个时期吧我们也可以看到呢就最近美元很强势然后像人民币汇率发生了一个回调像比特币大涨然后呢黄金发生了回调然后港股的话是全压状态 市场其实是在担忧特朗普执政可能会带来的一个高关税以及高通胀特别是港股市场更加博弈的是一个现实的问题我们A股市场前段时间可能是由于一个比较高的资金回报度走出了一个独立的行情但是最近这三天特别是今天大家也能感觉到A股出现了一个明显的回调 所以说当下阶段我们需要理清楚美国大选之后市场到底会怎么走然后我们可不可以以史为鉴比如说去参照一下1980年的时候包括参照一下2016年的时候这样的一个历史的一个状态去更好的预期未来的一个行情因此我们邀请了我们的专家秦文老师为我们进行一个解读秦文老师是 复旦大学的一个经济学博士然后2020年加入我们中文建筑研究所覆盖了海外的宏观大类资产出口然后汇率然后资金流动等一切的 ...

"All the News That's Fit to Print" PAGE BI murdered Gits frontwoman. THE WEATHER Today, some sun early then turning cloudy, chilly, high 48. Tonight, udy for much of the night, low 40. Tomorrow, partly sunny, windy, high 56. Weather map is on Page A20. | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

D DOM JONES What's News Gold Miners Steal 3 Tons and Counting s 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved ******** THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2024 ~ VOL. CCLXXXIV NO. 116 WSJ.com HHHH $5.00 DJIA 43958.19 À 47.21 0.11% NASDAQ 19230.74 g 0.3% STOXX 600 501.59 g 0.1% 10-YR. TREAS. g 5/32 , yield 4.448% OIL $68.43 À $0.31 GOLD $2,580.80 g $19.20 EURO $1.0565 YEN 155.49 Fed Rate Cut Remains on Track A 2.6% increase in consumer prices is unlikely to derail move in December change from a year earlier *Exclude ...

The experts Pest controllers on 17 ways to get rid of vermin - for good terrible Thursday 14 November 2024 III SDace £3.00 From £2.30 for subscribers Samantha Harvey on her Booker prize nning nov TIDITAl Israel 'committing crimes against humanity' in Gaza, warns report US-based Human Rights Watch condemns use of forced evacuation orders Peter Beaumont Israel is using evacuation orders to pursue the "deliberate and massive forced displacement" of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, according to a report by Human ...

Summary of Key Points from the Document Company and Industry Involvement - The document primarily discusses the political landscape surrounding President-elect Donald Trump and his administration, including key figures and their potential roles in government. It does not focus on a specific company or industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Republican Leadership Transition**: Senate Republicans elected Sen. John Thune as their new leader, indicating a commitment to work with President-elect Trump and support his agenda, including U.S. aid for Ukraine despite Trump's opposition [10][11][12]. 2. **Republican Trifecta**: The Republican Party has regained control of the House of Representatives, Senate, and Presidency, positioning them for significant policy changes, particularly in border security and tax legislation [10][11][12]. 3. **Trump's Cabinet Picks**: Trump announced controversial picks for his cabinet, including Rep. Matt Gaetz as Attorney General and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, which may face significant opposition during confirmation [15][16][17]. 4. **Elon Musk's Influence**: Elon Musk has emerged as a significant figure in Trump's inner circle, actively participating in discussions about government efficiency and spending cuts, which could benefit his business interests [22][25][27]. 5. **Judicial Appointments**: The document highlights the urgency for Senate Democrats to confirm judicial nominees before losing majority control, as Trump aims to fill vacancies with conservative judges [32][34][36]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Intraparty Dynamics**: The Republican Party faces internal challenges as it navigates between moderate and hardline factions, particularly regarding Trump's policies [11][12][26]. 2. **Public Sentiment**: There is a noted shift in public sentiment, with Republicans gaining support from working-class voters and Latinos, which could influence future elections [26][27]. 3. **Musk's Past Skepticism**: Musk's initial skepticism towards Trump has transformed into a close alliance, raising questions about the motivations behind his support and the implications for his businesses [22][25][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the document, focusing on the political dynamics surrounding Trump's administration and the implications for various stakeholders, including potential impacts on business and judicial appointments.

基础化工三季报梳理之轮胎 20241113 摘要 • 今年前三季度，轮胎行业整体需求呈现稳中向好的状态，但第三季度由于 海运和原材料成本的压力，盈利有所承压。全球配套市场需求有所回落， 但替换市场表现较好。国内半钢配套市场有所增长，而全钢配套端则主要 在发展中国家增长显著。替换市场方面，欧美地区半钢轮胎需求增长显著， 全钢轮胎在国内及南美地区表现突出。 • 今年前三季度，国内企业的开工率和进出口趋势表现出明显差异。半钢轮 胎保持高景气状态，全钢轮胎相对疲弱，但处于缓慢修复过程中。出口方 面持续创新高，而进口则相对平缓。欧洲市场对于国内基地的重要性非常 高，占比接近 40%。 • 美国对中国轮胎企业设置了较高的双反税，使得通过国内基地直接向美国 出口变得困难。因此，中国企业将生产基地转移至东南亚，以实现对美国 的批量出口。东南亚地区占据美国进口来源的一半左右，对美国来说，东 南亚仍是重要的供应来源。 • 第三季度海运费用处于高位，对订单产生负面影响，但从第四季度开始海 运费逐渐回归常态，不利影响得到明显缓解。今年第三季度原材料价格上 涨，但进入第四季度后橡胶价格开始边际回落，各家企业通过涨价函传导 成本压力。 ...

减税和降息，会带来什么？- 特朗普经济学系列 20241113 摘要 • 特朗普政府的减税政策预计将在未来十年内使 GDP 增加 2.5 个百分点，并 创造超过 200 万个工作岗位，但也会导致联邦政府财政收入减少约 6.8 万亿美元，加剧联邦赤字和政府债务规模上升。 • 由于财政政策不可持续，高利率环境下，美国经济难以承受，因此降息或 维持低利率环境是必要且必然的。特朗普具备推动降息的能力，可以通过 更换美联储委员会成员、公开批评美联储施压以及利用推特影响市场预期 等方式实现这一目标。 • 历史数据显示，美联储在应对经济危机期间通常倾向于低估实际所需降息 幅度。因此，我们预计当前形势下实际所需降息幅度可能远超预期，这为 我们理解特朗普政府未来货币政策提供了重要启示。 • 特朗普上台后对美联储产生了实质性的影响，这表明美联储并非完全独立 于政治因素。我们预计特朗普上任后，明年 1 月起，联邦利率可能会继续 下行，而且这一降幅可能超出市场预期。 • 美国债务上限问题需要分两个阶段来看。首先，在特朗普上任之前，美债 主要受到债务上限的影响。当前的债务上限暂停期将持续到 2025 年 1 月 1 日，届时两党需要重 ...

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongmin Resources focuses on lithium and minor metals sectors, with significant investments and strategic acquisitions enhancing its market position [2][3][4] Key Points Lithium Sector Investment Value - The investment value in the lithium sector is driven by the expected full production status of CATL in Q1 2025, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance and an increase in lithium prices from 70,000-80,000 to 80,000-90,000 RMB per ton, which could add 2 billion RMB to market capitalization [2][4] - Zhongmin Resources has strong geological exploration and execution capabilities, having conducted exploration in Africa since 2000 and made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its resource base [4] - The company holds two significant lithium mines, the Bikita and Tankou mines, which provide operational flexibility and potential for increased production [4] Performance of Minor Metals Sector - The minor metals sector, including brine salt and refined chemicals, has shown strong performance, with the company controlling two of the only operational brine salt mines globally, granting it significant pricing power [2][5] - A 20% price increase for brine salt in Q1 is expected to yield strong results in Q4, with additional growth anticipated as inventory levels normalize [5] - The acquisition of a copper smelting plant in Namibia and a reported 700 tons of extended family metal reserves bolster the minor metals segment, with rising prices for germanium providing a stable profit source [5] Future Development Directions - Zhongmin Resources plans to expand its portfolio across multiple metal varieties and enhance core competitiveness through acquisitions and self-development [6] - The company aims to optimize production structures to adapt to market conditions and strengthen its market share in minor metals through technological innovation [6] New Capacity in Namibia - The new capacity in Namibia is projected to yield an annual output of 30 tons of germanium, with a total gross profit potential of 600 million RMB, comparable to the profit from the brine salt business [7] Profit Contribution from Minor Metals - By 2026 or late 2025, the minor metals business is expected to contribute approximately 1 billion RMB in profits as the Namibian smelting capacity comes online [8] Copper Mining Developments - The acquisition of a Zambian copper mine has revealed 640,000 tons of copper resources, with plans to achieve a production capacity of 50,000 tons, potentially generating around 1 billion RMB in profits [9] - The average production cost is estimated between 5,000 to 6,000 USD per ton, with a projected profit of about 20,000 USD per ton at current market prices [9] Long-term Development Strategy - The long-term strategy focuses on leveraging geological exploration, with minor metals providing cash flow support, lithium as a price option, and copper as a foundational metal for stable growth [10] Market Outlook - The anticipated demand increase is expected to balance supply and demand by 2025, driving price increases and profitability beyond expectations, with a potential 50% price increase forecasted [11]

Key Points Industry and Company * **Company**:伊利股份 * **Industry**: Dairy Products Core Views and Arguments * **Third Quarter Performance**:伊利股份三季度业绩表现亮眼，行业需求与上半年基本持平，但供需层面出现积极信号。[2] * **Fourth Quarter Expectations**:公司预计四季度需求与前9个月持平，但将通过推出高质价比产品、开拓新兴渠道等措施实现环比改善。[4] * **Next Year Outlook**:公司对明年市场需求持谨慎乐观态度，预计与今年持平。[5] * **Product Strategy**:公司计划推出更多高质价比产品，以满足消费者对于质价比的追求。同时，在功能性和多元化消费趋势下，公司也会推出相应产品以更好地满足消费者需求。[6] * **Competition**:行业价格开始企稳，竞争更多是由供需矛盾引发的周期性变化，而非企业主动加剧竞争。[7] * **Supply Chain**:畜牧业产能去化进程仍在持续，预计明年供需有望趋于平衡，原奶价格也应能够企稳。[8] * **Business Segments**:四季度白奶表现最好，其次是乳饮料和常温酸奶。低温板块体量较小，公司聚焦低温白奶并保持良好增长。[10] * **International Expansion**:公司在东南亚的国际化布局已经有多年历史，并通过多种模式探索出适合的经营方式。[12] * **Asset Impairment**:四季度资产减值测试主要集中在几个方面：大包粉、生物资产减值、澳优商誉减值、信用减值。[13] * **Raw Milk Price**:原奶价格下跌确实对白牌产品造成冲击，但也促进了消费者饮奶习惯的培养。[14] * **Strategic Focus**:公司计划在2025年推出未来五年的战略规划，以更好地了解各品类的发展方向。[16] * **New Business**:公司在水业务和现泡茶方面已有三四年的培育，目前行业竞争激烈，公司希望通过差异化策略面向小众群体。[17] * **Capital Limitation**:公司对某些业务的资本限额有限制，例如水和现泡茶业务的亏损限额。[18] * **Revenue Target**:今年收入目标完成难度较大，但扣非利润表现良好，因此整体利润尚可。[20] * **Supply and Demand Balance**:上游供需平衡是一个动态过程，预计明年三季度将是全年中供需最为平衡的季度。[21] * **Production Capacity**:现泡茶业务产能建设是一个逐渐释放的过程，目前还无法确定具体量体。[22] * **Non-伊利姆 Brand**:伊利在非伊利姆品牌产品方面推出了两款产品，分别是山姆的 Note 和冬天牛奶。[23] * **Competition with Local Brands**:伊利在低温奶制品市场中的竞争策略主要依赖于品牌优势和渠道优势。[24] * **Synergy**:低温酸奶与低温白奶之间存在较高的协同效应。[25] * **Industry Demand**:根据尼尔森 POS 机数据，今年乳业行业需求基本平稳，但金额端有所下滑。[26] * **Impact of White-Label Milk**:一些中小品牌通过低价策略进入市场，对市占率产生了一定侵蚀。[27] * **High-Low Line City Consumption**:今年高线城市消费信心下降程度比三四线城市更严重。[28] * **Sales and Marketing Expenditure**:明年销售费用率预计将稳中有降，主要因为收入企稳回升以及规模效应带来的积极影响。[29] * **Cooling Channel Inventory**:冷饮渠道库存去化基本完成。[30]

股票被谁买走了？A 股投资者结构概览 - 俯瞰投资者结构系列 20241113 摘要 • 尽管机构化趋势在 A 股市场已经持续了十几二十年，但数据显示，机构资 金，尤其是主动管理的机构资金，在整个 A 股市场中仍处于弱势地位。目 前所有机构资金持有的 A 股市值约为 16 万亿元，而个人投资者持有市值 为 26 万亿元，机构占比仅为 22%，低于个人投资者的 36%。 • 公募基金目前整体持有 A 股总市值规模达 6.2 万亿元，其中被动管理和主 动管理各占一半。被动管理规模增长迅速，从 2021 年底的 2:8 上升到 2024 年第三季度的对半开。在被动指数型基金中，ETF 尤为重要，其持股规模 已达到 3 万亿左右，今年 ETF 规模同比增速翻倍，主要得益于国资机构、 场外联接基金和险资等增量资金推动。 • 私募基金是第二大持有方，截至 2024 年第三季度，其持股市值约为 3.5 万亿，占整个 A 股 4.8%。但由于去年底发布的新规及今年以来量化规模 缩减，其整体规模有所下降。 • 外资（北向资金）是第三大持有方，截至 2024 年第二季度，其持股市值 约为 2.7 万亿，占整体比例 3.7%。近年 ...