有一些数据是超出了大家的预期那么关于明年的这个中国经济啊如果排个序的话我觉得有三个数据是比较重要的第一个呢就是房地产特别是房地产的销售因为这个决定了明年中国经济的这个增长的一个中枢那么第二呢就是出口因为明年再一个 潜在这个贸易战放不回归加关税这样一个背景下出口的波动可能会比较大有可能会先面对一个强出口紧接着又是受到这个贸易的干扰出现比较大的波动那么 第三个比较重要的就是消费了因为消费和出口可能会在明年形成一个内需和外需的对冲的组合那么出口的压力大的时候通过消费的对冲平抑这种波动可能明年在房地产销售相对来说比较稳定的情况下明年今年压力我觉得基本上是一个比较温和的但如果说出口 受到影响比较大但是消费的对冲现在是来的比较晚那么有可能明年这个经济就会出现一些比较不正常的波动所以对于明年的整个经济按照重要性排序先从地产销售判断明年整个经济增长中枢继续围绕着5还是说会相对来说 会下一个小台阶然后再看这个加关税对出口的影响和消费的波动的意志那么决定在每个季度是高一点还是低一点那么从10月份的经济数据来看呢第一呢这个出口还是表现的非常的好的10月的出口增速12.79月12.4 那么短期有一个因素是9月份有一些台风这个影响了这 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of Donald Trump's re-election on various sectors, including the economy, trade, and climate change policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to Trump's Re-election** - Stock and corporate-bond markets are responding positively to Trump's re-election, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 44,000 for the first time. Tesla's stock valuation surpassed $1 trillion again, and Bitcoin surged by 30% to over $90,000 [29][30][39] 2. **Inflation and Interest Rates** - America's annual inflation rate increased to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again, following a recent reduction to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% [30] 3. **China's Economic Stimulus** - China's latest stimulus package of 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) disappointed investors, failing to significantly boost household spending. The package aims to support distressed local authorities [32][101] 4. **SoftBank's Performance** - SoftBank reported a quarterly net profit of ¥1.2 trillion ($7.8 billion), driven by strong performance from its Vision Funds and a push into artificial intelligence [33] 5. **Siemens Energy's Recovery** - Siemens Energy reported a net profit of €1.3 billion ($1.4 billion), recovering from a €4.6 billion loss the previous year, although the outlook for renewable energy remains uncertain under a second Trump presidency [35] 6. **Volkswagen's Investment in Rivian** - Volkswagen increased its investment in Rivian from $5 billion to $5.8 billion to develop electric vehicle technology, with the first VW cars using Rivian's technology expected by 2027 [36] 7. **Just Eat Takeaway's Sale of Grubhub** - Just Eat Takeaway decided to sell Grubhub for $650 million, a significant loss compared to the $7.3 billion paid in 2021 [37] 8. **Tencent's Profit Growth** - Tencent's quarterly profit rose by 47% year-on-year to 53.2 billion yuan ($7.4 billion), aided by the release of the "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" game in China [38] 9. **Netflix's Subscription Growth** - Netflix reported that 50% of new subscribers are opting for its ad-supported subscription, with 70 million monthly active users on this plan, up from 40 million six months ago [39] 10. **Climate Change and Technology** - The re-election of Trump is expected to negatively impact climate-related policies in the U.S., but the trend towards cheaper renewable energy technologies continues, providing hope for emissions reduction [81][82][87] 11. **Global Trade and Tariffs** - Trump's administration is likely to impose tariffs of up to 60% on China and 10-20% on other countries, which could harm global trade and economic growth [56][62] 12. **Bangladesh's Political Stability** - Following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina, interim leader Muhammad Yunus has stabilized the economy, but faces challenges including food inflation and demands for elections [108][109] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a global trade war under Trump's administration could have severe implications for developing countries, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S. [60][63] - The need for rich countries to assist poorer nations in transitioning to renewable energy is emphasized, as many lack the capital to invest in clean technologies [88][90] - The importance of establishing a clear plan for governance in Bangladesh to avoid a return to political instability is highlighted [115]

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Commanders come up short in 26-18 loss to Eagles. D1 RiCky CARioTi/The WAShingTon PoST Sen. John Cornyn (r-Texas) said he would like to have access to the House ethics Committee's findings on matt Gaetz. Prices may vary in areas outside metABCD ropolitan Washington. ESU V1 V2 V3 V4 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

"All the News That's Fit to Print' VOL. CLXXIV .... No. 60,339 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2 THE WEATHER Today, turning out partly sunny, in- reasingly windy, high 58. Tonight, mostly clear, windy, low 45. Tomor- row, partly to mostly sunny, windy, Weather map, Page B12 $4.00 Staff members cleaned out the office of Representative Matt Gaetz, who resigned after being nominated to be the attorney general. NEWS ANALYSIS Trump's Picks To the Senate A Warning to Confirm Or Be Elbowed Aside By KATIE ROGERS WASHINGTON — ...

住房交易全面降税，将如何影响房地产市场 20241114 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | • | 此次财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部联合发布的房地产市场相关税收 政策调整的主要背景是今年中央政治局会议上明确强调房地产市场 ...

国产替代迫在眉睫！半导体通信怎么看 20241114 摘要 • 台积电断供中国 7 纳米芯片事件引发市场对国产替代的预期，推动了芯片 板块上涨。长期来看，国产替代是大趋势，未来一段时间内，以半导体为 代表的科技板块将继续受到市场青睐，有望迎来新一轮行情。 • 今年政策对金融市场特别是证券市场的支持力度明显加大，国家对证券市 场全方位的关注。从基本面来看，目前周期位置较好，全球流动性需要重 新平衡，一些流动性可能会涌向国内市场。此外，全球制造业周期将在 2025 年重新开启，这将对我国出口经济产生积极影响。 • 本次 A 股中的科技行情中，以新增生产力为代表的科技板块受到高度关注。 投资者可以从两个维度进行布局：一是选择偏成长方向的宽基指数产品， 如科创 100 指数；二是关注具体细分领域，如半导体、新能源和机器人等。 • 半导体行业经历了长时间调整后，在当前宏观经济环境下迎来了新的发展 机遇。美联储降息带来的流动性改善，有助于提升资本市场整体表现；AI 技术的发展和应用场景拓展，对半导体需求不断增加；中美贸易摩擦背景 下，自主可控需求进一步提升。 • 半导体基金自 2021 年起经历了连续三年的下跌，但从去年 ...

抖音双 11 美妆&家电总结分析 20241114 摘要 • 今年双 11 期间，抖音整体表现优于预期，实际完成金额约为 3,054 亿元， 超出预估的 2,900 亿元。 • 美妆方面，实际增速为 33%，低于预期，主要原因是今年大促周期较长， 平台补贴策略更倾向于 C 端用户，导致国际品牌在抖音上的销售不增反降。 • 今年双 11 期间，抖音平台的整体销售额为 3,054 亿元，同比增速为 42%。 其中直播部分占比 57%，达播在直播中的占比为 67%。 • 抖音商城在双 11 期间的表现没有低于预期，但其在 C 端用户心智中的地 位尚未完全形成，未来将通过特定行业补贴来推动其增长。 • 今年国货美妆品牌表现突出，例如完美同比增速 73%、修丽可 38%、润本 84%、润百颜 50%、夸迪 51%。相比之下，一些外资品牌表现相对一般，如 欧莱雅减少 3,000 万元至 6 亿元、雅诗兰黛减少 8,000 万元至 5.2 亿元、 赫莲娜减少 4,000 万元至 4.1 亿元。 • 今年双 11 期间，达人的费用率有所提升，例如去年的佣金率为 15%，而 今年则上涨到了 18%-20%。平台计划将更多运营精 ...

固态--氧化物&聚合物固态电池专家 20241114 摘要 • 氧化物固态电池和硫化物固态电池在材料选择上存在显著差异。氧化物固 态电池以陶瓷材料为电解质，具有优异的绝缘性能和稳定性，但电导率较 低，固体接触界面性能不佳。硫化物固态电池电导率较高，但界面稳定性 和锂金属生长控制方面存在挑战。 • 正极材料研发方向主要集中在高能量密度，如高镍或富锂锰基材料。负极 材料主要有硅碳负极和锂金属负极两种选择，目前以硅碳为主，预计锂金 属负极将在 2028 年后成熟应用。 • 全氧化物固态电池预计在 2028 年之前实现量产。解决其电导率低和接触 界面不佳问题主要有两条技术路线：复合电解质和使用高分子材料固态隔 膜。 • 国内企业普遍采用复合型氧化镓聚合类全氧化物路线，短期内锂金属应用 难度较大。蔚来已实现 130 度半固态电池量产，副盟乙级项目计划于 2025 年上市，应用于中低端车型。 • 富锂锰基材料成本较低，主要是因为锰的成本相对较低。正极材料在电池 成本中占比较大，使用富锂锰基可以有效降低整体成本。 • 半固态电池的整体成本比普通锂电池高约 15%。电解质、正极和负极的成 本占比取决于具体材料选择和工艺。 • ...

供需双增，生猪后市如何选择方向？20241113 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...