Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Overall Demand Background**: The real estate market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with new and second-hand home sales experiencing significant improvements. However, the growth rate of completed construction area remained significantly negative, exerting pressure on the construction materials industry [2]. 2. **Industry Outlook**: The construction materials industry is expected to see a positive outlook in 2025, driven by domestic demand stabilization and supply-side reforms. Some leading companies are likely to benefit from the industry recovery [2][9]. 3. **Policy Impact**: The positive real estate policies implemented in Q4 2024, such as special bonds and the relaxation of residential property standards in new first-tier cities, have effectively boosted home sales [2]. Segment Analysis 1. **Fiberglass Sector**: The fiberglass sector maintained stable profitability in Q4 2024, with both粗纱 and electronic yarn prices experiencing year-on-year growth. The demand for wind glass and thermoplastic glass sand increased significantly, supporting the industry's profitability [4]. 2. **Cement Sector**: The cement sector saw significant price increases in Q4 2024, with southern regions leading the way. Companies with a high proportion of southern production capacity, such as Anhui Conch Cement and Shanghai Fengsheng Cement, are expected to outperform the industry [5]. 3. **Consumer Building Materials Sector**: The consumer building materials sector faced challenges due to the decline in construction and completion. The revenue of waterproofing, gypsum board, and home improvement pipe industries faced significant pressure. However, some leading companies with channel transformation maintained relative resilience [6]. 4. **Float Glass Sector**: The float glass sector experienced a continuous decline in demand and prices in Q4 2024. Although profitability improved on a quarterly basis, the year-on-year pressure remained significant. The industry continued to promote cold repair and production reduction to seek a new balance between supply and demand [8]. Recommendations 1. **Recommended Companies**: The report recommends a list of companies with strong competitiveness in their respective segments, including Dongfang Yuhong, Anhui Conch Cement, Shanghai Fengsheng Cement, Changhai Stock, China Glass, Weixing New Material, Beixian New Building Materials, Tuzibao, Jianlang Hardware, and Sanke Tree. Additionally, Jidong Cement and Qibin Group are also recommended [9].

海外用户涌入，"小红书"产业链解析 20250116 摘要 Q&A 根据我们设计的产业链模型，小红书上游主要分为内容创作者、广告代理商、直 播技术、数据分析工具和 AI 算法五个大类。其中，内容创作者、直播技术和 AI • 小红书凭借其内容分享属性，在美国 TikTok 面临封禁风险之际，迅速成 为替代品，下载量飙升，登顶多个国家和地区苹果应用商店免费榜榜首。 • 小红书产业链上游主要包括内容创作者、直播技术和 AI 算法等，下游则 涵盖电商平台和直播带货等，这些节点对小红书的运营至关重要。 • 基于产业链分析，我们识别出与小红书概念相关的股票，包括一网一创、 博源科技等，以及在 AI 算法或直播带货领域与小红书相关的公司。 • 我们开发的领涨股识别模块，从量价特征角度对小红书概念股进行排序， 构建"小红书概念增强组合"，包含一网一创、博源科技、天下秀、天娱 互动和遥望科技五只股票。 • 通过 IT 技术检索相关新闻和研报，利用大模型结合提示词模板，从生产 或供需角度梳理小红书产业链节点，识别并筛选出相关概念股，降低大模 型"幻觉"风险。 • 小红书海外市场成功得益于其独特的社区生态、竞争对手不足以及用户逆 ...

TSMC 24Q4 点评 20250117 台积电 2024 年四季度的财务表现如何？ 台积电 2024 年四季度的营收为 268.8 亿美元，同比增长 37%，环比增长 14.4%。 此前公司预期为 261 至 269 亿美元，市场一致预期为 258.3 亿美元，因此实际数 据超出预期。毛利率方面，四季度单季度毛利率达到 59%，同比提升 6 个百分点， 环比提升 1.2 个百分点，公司此前指引为 57%至 59%。净利润方面，四季度净利 润为 116 亿美元，同比增长 55%，环比增长 15%。全年营收超过 900 亿美元，同 比增长 30%；全年净利润达 265.2 亿美元，同比增长 35.8%；全年毛利率达 56.1%， 同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 • 2024 年四季度，台积电营收达 268.8 亿美元，超出市场预期，同比增长 37%，环比增长 14.4%；净利润达 116 亿美元，同比增长 55%，环比增长 15%；毛利率达 59%，同比提升 6 个百分点。 • 先进制程方面，两纳米和三纳米工艺占比达 26%，五纳米工艺占比最高， 达 34%。台积电预计两纳米将于 2025 年下半年量产，性能提 ...

大国博弈背景下，半导体产业的发展趋势与变革 20250116 摘要 Q&A 半导体行业的特点、驱动力和发展趋势是什么？ 半导体行业具有显著的周期性波动特征，但长期来看，行业规模稳步上升。半导 体可分为集成电路、分立器件、光电器件和传感器四类，其中集成电路（IC）占 比超过 80%。集成电路又进一步细分为模拟逻辑、微处理器和存储器等。根据预 测，到 2027 年全球半导体市场规模有望突破 6,000 亿美元。集成电路产业链较 长且复杂，上游包括半导体材料设备和 EDA 工具，中游涵盖设计制造封测，下游 应用领域广泛，包括消费电子、通讯计算、工业汽车等。 目前，产业主要有两 种运营模式：IBM 的垂直整合模式和单位帮助的平均分工模式。最初只有 IDM 模 • 半导体行业周期性波动显著，但长期增长趋势稳健，2027 年全球市场规 模有望突破 6,000 亿美元，集成电路占比超过 80%。 • 产业链上游为材料设备和 EDA 工具，中游为设计、制造、封测，下游应用 广泛，主要运营模式为 IDM 和专业分工模式，芯片设计和晶圆制造为核心 环节。 • 2024 年全球半导体市场预计增长 19%达 6,270 亿美元，20 ...

大家好会议时间开始请您稍后谢谢 大家好会议时间开始请您稍后谢谢本次电话会议仅服务于国泰金安证券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰金安证券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰金安证券研究所审核后方可留存 国泰金安证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发均属侵权国泰金安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰金安证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策 大家好专参加国际系列研究东南亚篇会议目前所有的参会者均处于坚硬状态现在有请主讲人开始发言谢谢各位投资者朋友大家晚上好我是国际安全设备署的邱苗很高兴今天晚上一网独家的电话会议过去三天的话我们召开了美国日本印度三个国家的一些电话会议市场反馈普遍是比较良好的今天的话我们就召开第四场电话会议再次聚焦东南亚市场请几位小齐老师分享一下最新的东南亚市场的这个机会 首先的话我们就有请策略团队的田开轩基于策略的视角分享一下最新的行业观点好的谢谢青苗老师我是策略组的田开轩然后今天跟各位投资者分享一下我们前段时间写的关于东南亚的货币研究系列的专题报告今天主要分享的内容主要是有两个国家第一个是越南第二个是印尼 ...

整个玻璃的话呢它在组件环节里边是作为一个副材料进行展示的 目前来看的话整个玻璃双玻组件的占比大概是在8成以上目前是占到了总成本的16%左右这个占比相对来讲比前期是有所提升的因为从12月份开始由于产能促进以及成本支撑玻璃的价格是有小幅的一个上涨所以说在整个组件里面副材料的价格副材料的成本较前期也是有所增长成本占比的话较前期也是有2%左右的一个提升 截止到目前来看 归成本的话大概是只占到了40%左右这个在往期来比的话也是比较低的但是近期由于上游的一个限产以及行业自律那么整个归还节的价格也是有触底反弹的一个迹象 有一些传言说是光伏玻璃的产能可能会有政策上的导向所以说在后面的话呢我们也会展开聊一下这个产能方面的问题就近几年来看的话我们国内的光伏玻璃不管是从装机量也好还是从整个产能的增速来也好近几年的整个增速发展都是比较明显的 截止到目前来看的话我们国内的光伏各环节均存在不同程度的产能过剩像是目前来看终端的组件环节产能利用率的话大概是只有50%左右回归到我们光伏玻璃环节来看的话呢就是由于近几年快速的产能增加导致了供气的一个失衡的加剧进入到2024年下半年来来看的话呢整个亏损还是比较明显的 所以说从7月份以后这个产能进入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is Overweight (OW) with a price target of NT$1,388.00, indicating a 26% upside from the current price of NT$1,105.00 [4][60]. Core Insights - The 1Q25 revenue guidance is expected to decline by 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, which aligns with Morgan Stanley's estimate of a 5% decline, attributed to smartphone seasonality. This is below the consensus expectation of flat to down revenue [6][4]. - TSMC maintains a gross margin (GM) target of 53% or above, which is slightly disappointing compared to consensus expectations. The guidance for 2025 revenue growth is projected at mid-20% year-over-year in USD, slightly better than previous low-20% estimates [6][4]. - TSMC anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-40% for its cloud AI semiconductor business over the next five years, reflecting strong demand in this segment [6][4]. Summary by Sections 1Q25 Guidance - Revenue is projected to decrease by 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, which is in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate but below consensus expectations [6]. - Gross margin is expected to be around 57-59%, factoring in a 1% margin dilution from the US fabrication facility [6]. Financial Performance - The fiscal year ending EPS estimates are NT$32.34 for 2023, NT$45.60 for 2024, NT$59.93 for 2025, and NT$76.86 for 2026 [4][60]. - The projected P/E ratios are 18.3 for 2023, 23.6 for 2024, 18.4 for 2025, and 14.4 for 2026 [4]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for the upcoming year is set at US$40 billion, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of US$38 billion [6]. Market Outlook - The share price is expected to increase by 2-4% based on the 1Q25 guidance and positive comments regarding AI demand [6].

Taiwan Equity | Technology Company Snapshot Company Snapshot Fubon Research January 16, 2025 | Buy | | | --- | --- | | Price | Target | | NT$1,105.00 | NT$1300 | | ○ Initiating coverage | ○ Visit notes | | ○ Company update | ● Earnings revision | | ● Earnings preview | ○ Rating change | | Share outstanding (mn) | 25,932.7 | | Market capital (NT$mn) | 28,655,630 | | Market capital (US$mn) | 870,251 | | FINI holding (%) | 73.54 | | Local IM holding (%) | 1.85 | | Directors holding (%) | 6.52 | | 52-week high ...

随着 AI Agents 开始进⼊ physical world，投资⼈不断思考 TAM 的扩张，从双⾜类机器⼈到空 中⽆⼈机和武器装置等各种模式，现在⼜涌现新的概念。2025 年刚过去两周，⼤量投资⼈开 始关注 AI Agency 与机器⼈技术的融合——Embodied AI。投资⼈关⼼的话题有： • ABC（Anything But Cars：除了汽⻋，什么都⾏） 科技⽇报-20250116 市场关注的核⼼交易逻辑聚焦在 Embodied AI 和 AI 计算基础设施的加速发展。 随着 AI Agents 逐步进⼊物理世界，CES ⼤会点燃了投资者对智能机器⼈的热情，正在重新评 估 TAM 的扩张潜⼒。⼤摩认为 Optimus 机器⼈或成特斯拉最有价值的资产，但当前市场仍未 赋予其合理估值。 同时⼤摩也带来部分台湾半导体产业链消息，OEM AI 服务器订单的季度可⻅度仍然不稳定， GB200 服务器也⾯临着些许挑战。 苹果供应链也传来消息，2024 年 iphone 出货量在 2.21 只，全球 yoy -2%，中国区 yoy -6%； 折叠屏讨论度增加，有望 2026 年出货 ⽬录 | ⼤摩-机器⼈的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to TCL Technology with a target price of Rmb4.00, which corresponds to 1.3 times the expected price-to-book ratio for 2025, lower than its historical average by 0.7 standard deviations [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic demand for large panels is expected to benefit from government subsidy policies, leading to a potential improvement in profits in the short term [1]. - The company anticipates that the price of large-size LCD panels will continue to show a slight upward trend due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced supply from domestic manufacturers [2]. - Profit margins are expected to improve due to higher utilization rates, rising prices, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain maturity and local material substitution [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The company reported a significant decline in TV demand in the first three quarters of 2024, but a noticeable improvement in demand is expected in the fourth quarter due to government consumption subsidy policies [1]. - Large-size panel production is nearing full capacity, while small-size LCD utilization remains above 80%, and OLED production is at full capacity [1]. Price Trends - The company believes that the price of large-size LCD panels has started to recover since December, driven by government subsidies and limited supply increases since 2022 [2]. Profitability Outlook - The anticipated improvement in profit margins is attributed to increased utilization rates, price increases, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain efficiencies [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a gradual increase from Rmb174.446 million in 2023 to Rmb212.718 million by 2028, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb2.215 million in 2023 to Rmb7.959 million in 2028 [7].