Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) with a 12-month target price of RMB 71.50 [4][5] Core Views - China Duty Free expects **stable sales in Hainan** and **positive year-on-year growth in airport sales** by 2025 [1] - The company is adopting a **"small batch + high frequency" procurement strategy** to maintain normal inventory levels [1] - If more South Korean duty-free operators cease cooperation with Chinese daigou (shopping agents), it could lead to **consumption repatriation**, benefiting Chinese duty-free operators [1] - The current **Hainan duty-free shopping policy**, including the RMB 100,000 annual shopping quota per person, is expected to remain unchanged for the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is increasing its **market share in Hainan**, and **consumption vouchers** are seen as an effective way to boost duty-free sales, with every RMB 1 voucher generating RMB 16-17 in incremental revenue [2] - **Chanel** is considering entering Haitang Bay, which could further enhance the region's appeal [2] - Airport duty-free sales are expected to grow positively in 2025, driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the boom in inbound tourism, though challenges remain, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms and slow introduction of luxury brands [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts **revenue growth** for China Duty Free, with revenues expected to increase from RMB 71.608 billion in 2024E to RMB 113.538 billion in 2028E [9] - **Net profit** is projected to rise from RMB 6.781 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.873 billion in 2028E [9] - **Earnings per share (EPS)** is expected to grow from RMB 3.28 in 2024E to RMB 5.26 in 2028E [9] - The **EBIT margin** is forecasted to remain stable at around 12.4% to 12.7% from 2024E to 2028E [9] - **ROIC (EBIT)** is projected to increase from 33.5% in 2024E to 45.2% in 2028E [9] Valuation and Market Data - The **target price of RMB 71.50** is based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 9.4%, implying a 22x/19x 2024/25E PE ratio [4] - The stock price as of January 15, 2025, was RMB 61.29, with a **52-week range of RMB 53.76 to RMB 89.68** [5] - The company has a **market capitalization of RMB 127 billion (USD 17.3 billion)** and a **free float of 25%** [5] - The **average daily trading volume** is 21,368 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 1.493 billion [5] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The **duty-free industry** faces structural challenges, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms, slow introduction of luxury brands, and the dilution effect of downtown duty-free stores [3] - The company is negotiating **airport pickup point fees**, and airports may become shareholders in downtown duty-free stores [3] - The **policy prohibiting individual shareholders** in duty-free entities remains unresolved, with individuals still holding over 30% of RiRi shares [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 51.48 for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The management expects overall revenue growth in 2025 to be in the high single digits to low double digits, with net profit margin improving by 20-30 basis points compared to 2024 [1]. - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to enhanced profitability from new business, cost reduction initiatives including multi-network integration, and the release of operational leverage [1]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio, which was 40% last year, expected to rise steadily by 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of RMB 258.409 billion in 2023, with projections of RMB 283.659 billion for 2024 and RMB 315.882 billion for 2025 [7]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024 [7]. Market Position and Competition - The company holds over 50% market share in the return logistics business on platforms like Douyin, with daily returns averaging 5 million items, representing 12-13% of total volume [3]. - The management believes that the recent integration of JD Logistics into the Taobao platform will have a limited impact on the company, as Taobao buyers can now choose to use SF Express for deliveries [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected stock price increase of 26.8% and a dividend yield of 2.3%, leading to an expected total return of 29.1% [8]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at RMB 202 billion (approximately USD 27.6 billion) [5].

商业中心和工业园区可以用燃气轮机给整个园区和商业中心提供冷热电我们叫冷热电三联供这种分布式能源这个需求一般是采用10兆瓦到20兆瓦的联合循环机组 这个呢大概我们行业内部就是叫啊6F级别啊6F01啊一直到03这个需求是比较旺盛的还有一个呢就是大型化的就是为基础电网为提供基本负荷的啊那就是最大型的我们就叫H级H级的大概这个出力的容量呢大概在 它是分全球是分两个频率的电厂的电网的在美国大概是60赫兹的电网那么我们国家是50赫兹电网像有一些特殊的国家它有50赫兹和60赫兹的电网共存的像日本所以60赫兹的电厂的ATG出力大概在500兆瓦左右 50赫兹的市场它的HG分两种一个叫H.01H.01的输力大概在650兆瓦左右H.02我们叫大H现在可以做到830兆瓦到840万瓦这个质量效率可以达到64%我指的是联合循环效率64%以上所以目前燃气轮机的这种团品系列基本上是这样子的而且我们现在看到 市场份额里边大H级已经占超过了50%的新增订单的份额所以目前看这个整个的大型燃机尤其是高效的这个粗利大的这个燃机的需求是占了市场的主要部分明白 然后我这边还有一个小问题想问一下就是您刚才提到其实现在你们出的很多AI数据单子都是这种大一点的 ...

大摩闭门会议-周期性行业 2025 展望-航空-工业-保险-物管地产 20250116 摘要 Q&A 2025 年航空行业的前景如何？ 我们对 2025 年的航空行业持乐观态度，认为这是一个十年周期的底部。自 2018 年以来，航空 业一直表现不佳，经历了人民币贬值、需求放缓、新冠疫情等一系列负面冲击。然而，我们认 为这些负面因素已经充分反映在市场情绪中，当前是一个较为激进的翻多时机。供给侧的问题， 如波音和空客交付能力受限、发动机维护问题等，将导致全球飞机供应增速放缓，而需求增长 回到正轨后，这种供需剪刀差将推动飞机资产回报率持续上涨。此外，中国市场预期低迷，但 其航空渗透率提升和结构性需求增长将使产能利用率显著提高。 • 2025 年航空业将迎来十年周期底部后的复苏，供给侧瓶颈（波音、空客交付受限）将 导致飞机供应增速放缓，而需求回升将推动飞机资产回报率上涨，中国市场尽管预期低 迷，但航空渗透率提升和结构性需求增长将带来产能利用率的显著提高，为航空公司带 来盈利增长机会。 • 中国航空业在当前通缩压力下存在涨价可能性，预计今年夏季票价将上涨，年对年涨幅 在 2-5%之间，春节期间可观察航空公司价格表现。产 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's policies are expected to accelerate in the first two years, focusing on immigration, trade, and fiscal measures, but aggressive policies may lead to economic disruptions, necessitating adjustments in policy implementation [2][3] - The potential for new tax cuts before the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025 is high, given Republican control of Congress, but this may further increase the fiscal deficit [3][5] - Tariffs may lead to short-term inflation but could also encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S., positively impacting the job market in the long run [3][8] - China's economy is adapting to reduced reliance on U.S. exports and is focusing on domestic demand, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs from the Trump administration [3][12] - The U.S. fiscal deficit could increase by approximately $5 trillion due to Trump's policies, stimulating short-term economic growth but potentially leading to long-term inflation and debt risks [3][6] Summary by Sections Trade Policies - Trump is likely to use tariffs as negotiation tools, with a gradual increase in tariffs to avoid immediate inflation spikes [4][3] - Increased tariffs could raise import prices, leading to short-term inflation but may also support domestic manufacturing [7][8] Economic Impact - The fiscal policies may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit significantly, which could stimulate domestic consumption and economic growth, but also raise inflation expectations [6][3] - The potential for labor shortages due to immigration policies could drive up wages and inflation, while easing high-skilled immigration could mitigate these effects [9][10] Global Economic Effects - The Trump administration's policies are expected to have significant implications for U.S. inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global economic activities [11][20] - China is expected to continue implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth despite potential tariff increases [12][13] Investment Opportunities - The A-share market presents attractive valuation opportunities, with certain sectors expected to benefit from policy implementation and economic recovery [17] - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios with high-dividend stocks and defensive sectors to balance risks amid market volatility [18][19] Market Trends - The U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks, may face valuation pressures, while other sectors could experience rotation as they align with overall economic growth [21][22] - Asian markets, especially Japan and South Korea, are highlighted for their growth potential, with a focus on high-yield strategies for stable returns [23]

**Summary**: This document provides an in-depth analysis of the Chinese automotive industry, focusing on key trends, forecasts, and investment opportunities. It covers various segments, including EVs, traditional OEMs, supply chains, dealerships, and OEM reforms. The report highlights the following key points: **1. EV Market Growth**: * China's EV market is expected to grow significantly, with wholesales reaching 28.3 million units in 2025. * Local brands are gaining market share, with a projected 70% market share in 2025. * PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular, with a projected 48% mix in 2025. * Global OEMs are losing market share due to intense competition and price wars. **2. Traditional OEMs**: * Geely is preferred due to its strong EV lineup and exposure to replacement demand. * SAIC and GAC are facing challenges, but reforms and partnerships could improve their prospects. * SOE OEM reforms are expected to gain momentum, with potential for improved profitability and efficiency. **3. Supply Chain**: * Smart driving technology is gaining traction, benefiting hardware providers like Horizon Robotics. * China suppliers are expanding overseas, driven by global EV supply chain decoupling. * Hesai is downgraded to Equal-weight due to its significant rally since November 2024. **4. Dealerships**: * Dealerships are shifting from global luxury brands to Chinese EVs. * Zhongsheng is preferred due to its strong bargaining power and customer base. * Yongda and Meidong are downgraded to Equal-weight due to their exposure to luxury brands and potential for margin pressure. **5. OEM Reforms**: * SAIC and GAC are undergoing reforms to improve efficiency and profitability. * Chang'an is a successful example of SOE reform. * SAIC and GAC H-share are preferred due to their unique advantages. **Investment Opportunities**: * **EVs**: XPeng, ZEEKR, Li Auto, and NIO are expected to benefit from significant operating leverage and potential profit turnaround. * **Traditional OEMs**: Geely is preferred due to its strong EV lineup and exposure to replacement demand. * **SOE OEM Reforms**: Chang'an, SAIC, and GAC H-share are preferred due to their potential for improved profitability and efficiency. * **Supply Chain**: Horizon Robotics is preferred due to its strong ADAS solutions and market position. * **Dealerships**: Zhongsheng is preferred due to its strong bargaining power and customer base. **Conclusion**: The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by the rapid growth of EVs and technological advancements. This presents both challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders. Understanding the key trends and investment opportunities is crucial for navigating this dynamic landscape.

Key Points **Industry/Company Involved**: - SK Hynix (000660.KS) **Core Views and Evidence**: - **4Q24E Earnings Outlook**: SK Hynix is expected to report better-than-expected 4Q24E operating profit (OP) of +W8.3tr, driven by robust HBM3E demand growth and a 4Q DRAM ASP increase of +9% QoQ. [doc id='1'] - **DRAM ASP Growth**: Despite a projected deceleration in overall DRAM industry ASP growth to -7% QoQ in 1Q25E, Hynix's DRAM ASP is expected to remain intact, with flat growth in 1Q25E. [doc id='3'] - **HBM3E & HBM4 Leadership**: Hynix is expected to maintain its leadership in the HBM market due to its 1bnm and advanced MR-MUF technology in HBM3E & HBM4 for high-end AI applications. [doc id='1'] - **2025E Outlook**: SK Hynix's 2025E OP is forecasted to be W39.4tr, higher than the market consensus of W31.8tr, driven by a HBM mix exceeding 50% of total DRAM revenue. [doc id='4'] - **Strategic Decision**: Hynix's decision to use 1bnm & advanced MR-MUF technology for HBM4 will solidify its HBM dominance and expedite the launch schedule of HBM4 in 2Q25E and mass production in 2H25E. [doc id='4'] - **Buy Rating**: Citi maintains a Buy rating on SK Hynix, expecting the company to stay resilient amid challenging pricing conditions in the conventional memory market. [doc id='5'] **Other Important Points**: - **Market Consensus**: The market consensus for 4Q24E OP was W7.9tr, lower than the expected W8.3tr. [doc id='2'] - **NAND ASP Decline**: Despite a projected +9% QoQ growth in NAND B/G in 4Q24E, NAND ASP is expected to fall -7% QoQ due to weak mobile NAND demand. [doc id='2'] - **2025E Valuation**: Citi's target price for SK Hynix is W340,000, based on a 2.5x 25E P/B and a 30% premium to the stock's historical average PB during a structural demand growth phase. [doc id='19'] - **Risks**: Downside risks include a downturn in DRAM demand, weaker NAND demand than forecasts, and a collapse in global consumption. [doc id='20'] - **Investment Strategy**: Citi believes SK Hynix is well positioned to benefit from the DRAM market recovery driven by limited supply growth and its technology leadership in DRAM. [doc id='18'] - **Valuation**: The target price is derived by applying 2.5x 25E P/B, obtained by applying a 30% premium to the stock's historical average PB during a structural demand growth phase. [doc id='19'] - **Risks**: Downside risks include a downturn in DRAM demand, weaker NAND demand than forecasts, and a collapse in global consumption. [doc id='20']

Haier Smart Home Co. (600690.SS): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: High-end leading domestic improvement, focus on tariff; Buy 10 January 2025 | 4:28PM CST We hosted Haier Smart Home's management for a virtual meeting at the Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jan 10. Key takeaways include: 1) Management commented revenue growth accelerated to DD% in 4Q mainly driven by domestic sales recovery (10%+ growth) supported by trade-in program, while overseas organic growth was largely stable vs previous quarters ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 Jan 2025 16:12:30 ET │ 18 pages Taiwan Electronics & Semiconductors Taiwan Technology Sector Monthly Tracking – AI-related Names Still Outperforming CITI'S TAKE Given solid AI demand and upstream semiconductor component restocking, foundry makers including TSMC, UMC and VIS all reported inline/upbeat Dec and 4Q revenue. Mediatek also delivered better-than- expected 4Q revenue. In downstream, server players' Dec sales were tracking ahead. Wiwynn and Accton both delivered record-high mo ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China SMID Internet** sector, which includes companies with market capitalizations between **$10 billion and $50 billion**. Key players discussed include **Trip.com (TCOM)**, **Baidu (BIDU)**, and **Tencent Music (TME)** [1][2][3]. Core Themes and Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: The China SMID Internet sector is characterized by two main themes: - **Single vertical platforms** (e.g., travel, mobility) that are structural winners in their categories. - **New media companies** (e.g., short-form video, streaming music) that face strong competition and have more tactical business models [1][2]. 2. **Consumer Spending Shift**: There is a notable shift in consumer spending from material goods to services and experiences, driven by post-COVID recovery and changing consumer preferences, particularly among Gen-Z [2][12]. 3. **AI and Product Innovation**: Companies are expected to focus on AI applications and product innovation, with a need for unique data ecosystems to effectively monetize these innovations [2][3][12]. 4. **Travel Sector Recovery**: The travel industry is anticipated to normalize in 2025, with robust growth expected in both domestic (approximately **10%** growth) and outbound travel (approximately **18-20%** growth) as the last effects of COVID recovery phase out [4][38]. Company-Specific Insights Trip.com (TCOM) - **Growth Projections**: TCOM is expected to maintain strong growth rates, with an estimated **18% revenue growth** for 2025, driven by international expansion and sustained domestic growth [40]. - **Market Position**: TCOM is gaining market share in the online travel agency (OTA) space, currently at **45% penetration**. The company is expected to continue expanding its offerings, including customized tours and car rentals [5][39]. - **Earnings Outlook**: The long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth is projected at mid-teens, supported by operational leverage and a strong competitive position [5][37]. Baidu (BIDU) - **Monetization Challenges**: Baidu is facing difficulties in monetization, with recovery expected to extend into **2026**. The company is struggling with lower ad rates and building an effective AI ecosystem [5][9]. - **Market Rating**: Baidu is rated as **Market-Perform**, with a target price of **$87**, reflecting a cautious outlook on its recovery trajectory [9][10]. Tencent Music (TME) - **SVIP Program Expansion**: TME plans to enhance its SVIP products, which could drive user growth and increase average revenue per user (ARPU) above current levels. The company is rated as **Outperform** with a target price of **$13** [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Implications**: The overall investment thesis suggests that TCOM is a long-term quality compounder in the travel sector, while Baidu's challenges may limit its performance relative to peers [9][10]. - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: The shift towards experiences is expected to continue, with increased spending on travel, entertainment, and dining, indicating a robust recovery in consumer services sectors [12][17][25]. Conclusion The China SMID Internet sector is poised for growth, particularly in travel and new media, with TCOM showing strong potential for long-term performance. Baidu faces significant challenges, while TME is positioned to capitalize on its subscription model. The overall market dynamics reflect a structural shift in consumer spending and a focus on innovation and unique content.