Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Semiconductors** industry, particularly companies involved in AI infrastructure and related technologies. [1] Core Company Insights Analog Devices (ADI) - **Outlook**: Management maintains a constructive view, expecting high-single digit year-over-year growth in Industrial revenue for CY2025, which constitutes 46% of total revenue. [5] - **Revenue Drivers**: Strong demand in Test & Instrumentation and Aerospace & Defense sectors, along with robust EV demand in China, are key revenue drivers. [5] - **AI Revenue**: Currently generates approximately $400 million in annual revenue from AI-related products. [5] - **Valuation**: Despite a P/E of 31x, the stock is expected to grow into this multiple due to higher revenue and improved cost absorption. [5][6] Credo Technology (CRDO) - **Growth Drivers**: Positive outlook driven by the adoption of Active Electrical Cables in AI compute infrastructure and evolving network architectures. [10] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenue growth from $193 million in FY2024 to $796 million by FY2027. [9] - **Risks**: Customer concentration and competition are noted as potential risks. [11] Lam Research (LRCX) - **Market Position**: Expected to outgrow the Wafer Fab Equipment market due to advancements in technology transitions and strength in HBM. [15] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to grow from $14.9 billion in FY2024 to $20.9 billion by FY2027. [14] - **Risks**: Weaker demand in NAND and potential export restrictions are highlighted as risks. [16] Marvell Technology (MRVL) - **AI Revenue**: Management is confident in exceeding AI revenue forecasts of $1.5 billion for FY2025. [20] - **Market Trends**: Emphasis on networking solutions as hyperscalers transition to larger compute clusters. [20] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth from $5.5 billion in FY2024 to $11.9 billion by FY2027. [19] - **Risks**: Moderation in AI spending and increased competition are noted as risks. [21] Micron Technology (MU) - **Market Conditions**: Management expects normalization in customer inventory by spring, leading to improved business conditions. [25] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to grow from $25.1 billion in FY2024 to $46.1 billion by FY2027. [24] - **Risks**: Weaker demand for consumer electronics and lack of supply discipline are potential risks. [26] Nvidia (NVDA) - **Growth Drivers**: Investments in AI infrastructure by major hyperscalers are expected to drive growth. [30] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue expected to grow from $60.9 billion in FY2024 to $242.4 billion by FY2027. [29] - **Risks**: Decline in AI spending and GPU export restrictions are highlighted as risks. [31] ON Semiconductor (ON) - **Market Outlook**: Management expects sequential revenue growth to follow sub-seasonal patterns, with a focus on intelligent power and sensing technologies. [35] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to decline slightly before recovering to $7.5 billion by FY2026. [34] - **Risks**: Weakness in key end-markets and increased competition are noted as risks. [36] Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) - **Market Position**: Near-term fundamentals are tracking as expected, with potential for revenue growth in CY2025 and CY2026. [40] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenue growth from $4.2 billion in FY2024 to $4.8 billion by FY2027. [39] - **Risks**: Fluctuations in smartphone demand and market share are potential risks. [41] Texas Instruments (TXN) - **Market Position**: Despite a strong product portfolio, the company is rated as a Sell due to high valuation compared to peers. [45] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue expected to decline slightly before recovering to $19.1 billion by FY2026. [44] - **Risks**: Valuation concerns and potential weakness in key markets are noted. [46] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment among companies enabling AI infrastructure is optimistic, while others express caution due to demand uncertainty and inventory challenges. [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of adapting to evolving market conditions and technological advancements in the semiconductor industry. [1]

12 January 2025 | 6:19PM JST Japan Market Monitor: Re-balancing sector and thematic indices In this week's Japan Market Monitor, we discuss the re-balancing of our Japan Market Monitor indices. Over the end-of-year break, we have re-balanced our equal-weighted sector and thematic indices, and also added 2 new thematic indices: 1) AI Beneficiaries; and 2) Defense. Due to 6M adtvs falling below our US$20mn threshold for some names since the last re-balance, we have removed 30 stocks from our universe (Exhibit ...

January 12, 2025 10:39 PM GMT 5) Optics component design extension: Most smartphone OEMs didn't attended CES as they had another global event for new product promotion in 1Q25. However, smartphone supply chain companies such as AAC, Sunny Optical and Crystal Optech did attend. Major products were related to machine vision (Robot) and AR/VR optical solutions. In light of strong new products launching in those two industries, smartphone supply chain companies are participating in new product innovation, aimin ...

12 Jan 2025 15:35:30 ET │ 61 pages China Consumer Stock-picking in 2025 CITI'S TAKE In our view, it will take time for the government's pro-consumption policies to boost growth of most China consumer companies in 25E. With low expectations on the positive impact of government policies (especially in 1H25E), we have used a thematic approach to analyze the evolved industry landscape in recent years and identify investment opportunities in 25E. Our Top Buys: Mengniu, CR Beer & Giant Bio in staples; Haier, Mide ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group - **Industry**: Mining, specifically focusing on copper, gold, potassium chloride, and lithium production Core Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Plans**: Zijin is in discussions to acquire a 24.72% stake in Zangge Mining, which is the second-largest potassium chloride producer in China and a major lithium producer. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance Zijin's asset portfolio and achieve its production targets over the next five years [2][5][6]. 2. **Market Performance**: On January 10, Zijin-A and Zijin-H shares increased by 1% and 3% respectively, outperforming the HSCEI index which fell by 1%. This positive market reaction is attributed to the announcement of the potential acquisition [2]. 3. **Recent M&A Activity**: Since November, Zijin has announced two other mergers and acquisitions (Akyem Gold Mine and La Arena Project), although these did not significantly impact share prices due to their relatively small size compared to Zijin's overall operations [2]. 4. **Strategic Goals**: The acquisition aims to increase Zijin's holding in the Julong Copper Mine from 50.1% to 58%, which is expected to be the largest single copper mine commissioned since 2000. Additionally, it will enhance Zijin's lithium reserves, which are crucial for maintaining low production costs [5][8]. 5. **Financial Impact**: The acquisition is projected to increase Zijin's copper reserves and FY25 estimated output by 3.7% and 1.2% respectively, although it will not affect consolidated reserves and output due to existing controlling interests [5][8]. 6. **Investment Thesis**: Zijin is favored due to its strong performance in copper and gold, which contribute 47% and 32% to its gross profit respectively. The company is expected to benefit from improving demand and tighter supply in the copper market, supporting an 8-10% CAGR volume growth target through 2028 [8][11]. 7. **Valuation Metrics**: The price target for Zijin-A is set at Rmb21.00, implying a FY25E P/E multiple of 14.4x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.5x. For Zijin-H, the price target is HK$20.00, with a FY25E P/E multiple of 13x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x [9][12]. 8. **Risks**: Upside risks include stronger-than-expected commodity prices and volume growth, while downside risks involve potential overpayment in M&A, geopolitical risks, and weaker commodity prices [10][13]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Zangge Mining's Financials**: In the first nine months of 2024, Zangge Mining reported earnings of Rmb19 billion, with 72.96% derived from investment gains in the Julong Copper Mine [7]. - **Production Capacity**: Zangge Mining has a production capacity of 2 million tons per annum (mtpa) for potassium chloride and produced 715,000 tons in 9M24 [7]. - **Strategic Asset Locations**: Zangge Mining's key assets include Qarhan Salt Lake and Mamicuo Salt Lake, which are rich in potassium chloride and lithium chloride resources [5][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting Zijin Mining's strategic initiatives, market performance, and financial outlook within the mining industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **robotics industry**, with a specific focus on **humanoid robots** and their market dynamics [2][4][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The robotics sector has seen a significant rebound, with products managed by **招商基金** experiencing daily gains exceeding 6%. This indicates a high level of market interest in the robotics industry despite previous volatility [2][4]. - **Market Influencers**: Key factors affecting the market include **exchange rate pressures**, the **annual report disclosure period**, and the **pace of overseas interest rate hikes**. These elements have contributed to a substantial market pullback at the beginning of the year [3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual investment during market dips rather than chasing highs. This approach is expected to yield returns by 2025, as structural opportunities arise [4][7][36]. - **Production Expectations**: The humanoid robot industry is currently in a **small-scale production phase**, with expectations for mass production to begin in 2025. Key factors for this transition include improvements in **intelligence levels** and **cost control** [9][12]. - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Enhancements in humanoid robots' intelligence require advancements in understanding capabilities, generalization abilities, and execution efficiency. These breakthroughs are closely tied to developments in **artificial intelligence** [10][34]. Additional Important Content - **CS Conference Impact**: The **CS Conference** showcased cutting-edge technologies in AI and robotics, boosting market confidence and interest in the sector [6][41]. - **Investment Sentiment**: The market sentiment towards the robotics industry is optimistic, with significant returns observed in funds tracking robotics indices, indicating strong investor confidence [15][30]. - **Comparative Development**: The development trajectory of humanoid robots is likened to that of **smartphones** and **new energy vehicles** during their early stages, emphasizing the need for performance enhancement and cost reduction for widespread adoption [13][22]. - **Future Market Potential**: The humanoid robot market is expected to mirror the rapid growth seen in the new energy vehicle sector, with increasing applications in various fields such as cleaning and companionship [22][24]. - **Policy Support**: Government policies play a crucial role in fostering the robotics industry, with various economic entities implementing supportive measures to encourage technological advancements and market expansion [44]. Conclusion - The robotics industry, particularly humanoid robots, is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, favorable market conditions, and supportive policies. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach to capitalize on the emerging opportunities within this dynamic sector.

北交所系列：民士达：芳纶纸国产替代空间广阔，2024 年业 绩高预增 20250115 摘要 Q&A 请介绍一下名仕达公司 2024 年的业绩预告情况，以及相较于三季度，公司在四 季度有哪些重要变化？ 2024 年整体来看，蜂窝新材领域表现良好，特别是芳纶纸应用端的高端应用领 域，其门槛较高，毛利率也较厚。从一季度开始，该领域逐步放量，到四季度放 量效果更为显著。四季度的亮点之一是海外市场变压器需求量超出预期，这也是 电气绝缘领域的高端应用，毛利率较高。此外，公司子公司在 2024 年亏损约 1,000 万元，但在 12 月单月已达到盈亏平衡状态，预计 2025 年将实现稳定盈利。四季 度产能基本处于满负荷状态。 • 2024 年名仕达公司业绩预告向好，四季度业绩显著提升，主要得益于蜂 窝新材领域（尤其芳纶纸高端应用）和海外变压器需求的超出预期。 • 蜂窝新材领域对 2024 年业绩增长贡献最大，其中航空器应用贡献高于轨 道交通；变压器领域（高端芳纶纸应用）贡献次之；新能源汽车领域保持 平稳增长，与市场增速一致。 • 2024 年四季度，各业务板块延续全年增长趋势，变压器需求增长尤为显 著，主要来自海外市场， ...

氧化铝博弈反转，电解铝春节前后何去何从 20250115 摘要 Q&A 2024 年氧化铝价格为何出现大幅上涨？ 2024 年，氧化铝价格在 12 月逐渐见顶，全年最高涨幅超过 65%。主要驱动因素 包括两个方面：一是基本面供需矛盾偏紧，持续升级；二是市场情绪及资金的助 推放大了价格波动。行业集中度较高，使得氧化铝受海外宏观环境变化影响相对 有限，因此其价格走势主要由产业基本面自身变化决定。 2025 年初氧化铝价格为何急剧下跌？ • 2024 年氧化铝价格大幅上涨(超过 65%)，主要由于供需矛盾加剧和市场投 机行为。 • 2025 年初氧化铝价格急剧下跌(超过 28%)，因原料端利空释放、期货市场 资金撤出和看空情绪蔓延。 • 氧化铝供需矛盾因海外价格走弱、几内亚出口增加和国内产能释放而缓解， 预计 2025 年新增出口量同比增加 2,400 万吨。 • 春节前电解铝市场原料供应改善，需求相对稳定，出口压力释放，全国氧 化铝社会库存连续两周累库。 • 未来氧化铝供应增量预期明朗，但几内亚政治及突发事件仍存风险，新增 产能集中在 2025 年一季度及下半年。 • 投资策略建议：关注供应增加和需求稳定情况，密 ...

电网高景气持续，投资价值凸显 20250116 摘要 Q&A 近期电网设备板块的市场表现如何？未来趋势如何？ 近期电网板块虽然有明显调整，但产业公司层面仍处于高景气趋势，未发生改变。 目前重点公司的估值明显低估。2025 年国家电网初步规划固定资产投资接近 6,800 亿元，同比增速接近 8%，同比增量约 500 亿元。今年 7 月左右预计会继续 调增，预计今年的固定资产投资将达到 7,000 亿元左右，同比增速接近 12%。去 年年初预算的增速也是大约 8%左右，年中调整到双位数增长，今年与去年国网 投资预算提出的节奏和水平基本类似，维持双位数增长的高景气。 国网 2025 年的具体投资方向有哪些？ 国网 2025 年的具体投资方向包括以下几个方面： 平高清器业绩增长主要由以下几方面拉动： 1. 主网投资：增加约 150 亿元，不含特高压基建投资在 1,700 亿左右，同比 增速约 9%。西北主网下结构 750kV、330kV 等持续建设，以支撑大量电力 送出，满足保供电需求。 2. 特高压：预计与 2020 年相近，大约 900 多亿。特高压尤其是直流投资金 额主要来自上一年开工线路，不反映当年开工情况。 ...

生猪：关上一扇门，打开一扇窗 20250115 摘要 预计 2025 年整体景气度相对较低，但在 12 个月中某些月份可能会有较高波动， 例如春节后及 6-8 月。在这些时间段内，传统周期成长逻辑惯性交易仍可能存在。 此外，在经济下行背景下，不少公司从买位置角度看具有较高性价比。例如牧原 股份，其 2000 亿市值以下被认为是一个认同度较高的底部，因此当前时间点买 入牧原具有确定性的估值修复机会。 在当前市场环境下，有哪些具体标的是值得关注的？ Q&A 在当前市场环境下，牧原股份和温氏股份等龙头企业值得关注。牧原股份目前市 值接近 2000 亿，被认为是其价值认同度较高的底部。此外，从交易结构角度来 看，其 2000 亿以下的位置也是非常不错。例如去年 8-9 月及今年 10 月都证明了 这一点。因此，在当前时间点买入牧原股份具有非常好的确定性估值修复机会。 同时，其他具有明显优势和价值标杆地位的企业也可以考虑纳入投资组合。 请简要介绍一下当前生猪板块的投资逻辑及其变化。 对于未来农业领域的发展，有哪些新的部署计划？ 当前生猪板块的投资逻辑经历了三个阶段：在 2017 年之前，主要是周期驱动； 2017 年至 ...