特朗普新内阁的基本面分析—特朗普 2.0 观察（一）20241210 摘要 • 特朗普新内阁总身家是拜登内阁的近 60 倍，成员多来自商界，这预示着 政府政策可能更倾向于商业利益和经济增长。 • 新内阁中 6 人拥有法学博士学位，凸显了美国'律师治国'的传统，这可 能影响法律法规的制定和执行。 • 新财长布森特的"333 计划"（赤字降至 GDP 的 3%，经济增长率达 3%， 每日石油产量增至 300 万桶）反映了政府刺激经济增长的政策倾向，市场 对此反应积极。 • 新政府对金融监管的放松，可能导致风险积聚，但短期内利好银行和金融 科技公司，并可能推动加密货币市场进一步发展。 • 在贸易政策方面，新政府延续了贸易保护主义倾向，可能加剧与其他国家 （如中国）的贸易摩擦，对全球贸易格局产生影响。 • 新内阁在性别和种族多样性方面显著下降，这可能影响政府的政策方向和 社会公平性。 • 新内阁成员主要由 X 世代组成，这与婴儿潮一代主导的拜登政府形成对比， 可能带来政策理念和执行方式的差异，例如对科技和创新领域的重视程度 可能更高。 Q&A 特朗普新内阁的主要特点是什么？ 特朗普的新内阁可以用"三个 6"来概括。首 ...

Key Points Summary Industry and Company Involved - **Focus on Information Technology (IT) sector, particularly in China** - **Specific companies mentioned**: 大梦数据 (Dreamdata), 金山办公 (Kingsoft Office), 普联软件 (Prosoft), 金蝶国际 (GoldenBridge), 中旺 (Zhongwang), 左成 (Zuocheng), 管他公司 (Guantecom), 明月云公司 (Mingyueyun), 华大酒店 (Hua Dajian), 盖伦店 (Gailun Dian), 税友 (Shuiyou), 焦点科技 (Focus Technology) Core Views and Arguments - **Triple convergence of innovation, cyclicality, and AI applications creates industry opportunities** - **Short-term opportunities**: Policy-driven new creation fields, such as government and public sector information construction, focusing on Dreamdata and Kingsoft Office. - **Medium-term opportunities**: Economic recovery-driven cyclicality, focusing on industrial software and high-end management systems (such as central and state-owned enterprise ERP), recommending Prosoft and GoldenBridge. - **Long-term opportunities**: Industrial revolution brought by AI technology, focusing on To C and To B directions, To C recommending Kingsoft Office, Exoplanet Technology, Cai Xun Stock, and科大讯飞 (科大讯飞), To B recommending GoldenBridge, Dingjie Software, etc. - **GoldenBridge has solid fundamentals and advantages in the innovation field, actively布局 AI applications, and has a cost-effective valuation**. - **Industrial software field, Zhongwang and Zuocheng are worth paying attention to, both focusing on Feidi and Feiyi directions, the market space in China is huge**. - **Construction and real estate IT companies benefit from national policy support for economic recovery, recommending to pay attention to Guantecom and Mingyueyun, both companies are at historical low valuations**. - **AI technology-driven is an important investment theme in the future, focusing on the application of AI in enterprise-level scenarios (code generation, marketing, finance, human resources) and innovative applications in the To C field**. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Computer board investment opportunities mainly focus on the following aspects**: - **Short-term**: Policy-driven new creation opportunities, such as government and public sector information construction. - **Medium-term**: Economic recovery-driven cyclicality. - **Long-term**: Industrial opportunities brought by AI technology revolution. - **Specific investment targets in the new creation field**: - **Government and public sector**: Dreamdata and Kingsoft Office. - **Key application scenarios**: Industrial software and high-end management systems (such as central and state-owned enterprise ERP), recommending Prosoft and GoldenBridge. - **GoldenBridge's advantages in innovation and other aspects**: - Solid fundamentals, double-digit growth even in an adverse economic environment. - Successful replacement of Weichai SAP system in the innovation field. - Active layout of AI applications in enterprise-level scenarios. - Cost-effective valuation, about 20 times next year. - **Industrial software companies worth paying attention to**: - Zhongwang and Zuocheng, focusing on Feidi and Feiyi directions. - **Company valuation and growth potential in the current market environment**: - Reasonable valuation, PS ratio about 13 times. - Expected to achieve 30% growth this year, but the uncertainty of military orders may affect this goal. - Business growth is real, similar to the situation last year, where the growth in the first quarter was significant. - Expansion of market share through mergers and acquisitions, and active expansion into humanoid robots and AI-related fields. - **Focus on varieties in the industrial software field**: - Hua Dajian and Gailun Dian, both with high potential in the EDA field. - **Impact of national policies on construction and real estate IT companies**: - Highly support economic recovery, especially through stabilizing the real estate and stock markets to promote economic development. - Construction and real estate IT companies benefit from this, as they usually adopt a light asset model and do not have huge bankruptcy or operating risks. - Recommend focusing on Guantecom and Mingyueyun, both with high cost-effectiveness. - **Prospects for the development of general software and AI technology-driven**: - GoldenBridge and Shuiyou are worth paying attention to. - AI technology is the most important theme in the future. - AI applications are in the early stage, but hardware infrastructure, front-end applications (ASP APP), and back-end data centers have been laid out in a certain amount. - Large model technology performance has improved significantly and the cost has decreased exponentially, indicating that in the future, 5 to 10 times of big bull stocks will be born. - Continue to closely monitor the development of this field. - **Significant progress and trends in AI technology in commercial applications in recent years**: - Many large application manufacturers have launched various AI intelligent products since September 2023. - Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other companies have launched their own AI products, which have shown excellent commercial value and productivity improvement. - In the next three to five years, AI applications will be an important field worth paying attention to. - **Specific directions and suggestions for investing in AI-related companies**: - To C direction: Potential return is higher, but the certainty is relatively low. Recommend focusing on Kingsoft Office, Exoplanet Technology, Cai Xun Stock, and 科大讯飞. - To B direction: More emphasis on stability and long-term development. For example, Focus Technology, its IMAX business has achieved significant transformation and realization of value since last year, and is expected to reach 450 million yuan this year. - Important innovative fields in enterprise-level application scenarios include code generation, large marketing systems (including marketing, customer service), financial scenarios, and human resource management. Recommend focusing on GoldenBridge, Dingjie Software, etc., which can access OpenAI's large model and achieve significant growth. - **Detailed introduction of specific companies and their performance in the AI field**: - Kingsoft Office is currently promoting its AI membership service, which is an important representative in the To C scenario. - Exoplanet Technology originally focused on video editing software, but now through the introduction of AI technology, it has achieved significant revenue growth, such as its Cat Shadow Drawing products have reached tens of millions of yuan in revenue, with an increase of three to four times compared to last year. - Cai Xun Stock launched a product named "Gele", which generates music from pictures, and charges about one yuan per song. The number of users has reached tens of thousands, and it is expected to reach a million next year. - 科大讯飞 mainly focuses on the education scenario, through many years of accumulation to form a scale volume, even if the basic model does not win in the end, it still has a strong position in the education field, which is an important variety that can attack and retreat. - Focus Technology as a representative in the To B scenario, its IMAX business has reached 200 million yuan in contracts last year, and is expected to maintain high growth elasticity this year, with an expected profit of 4.5 billion yuan. - In addition, in the enterprise-level application, GoldenBridge has achieved significant growth with its Athena platform, and Dingjie Software, due to some of its business located in Taiwan, can access OpenAI's large model and achieve rapid development. - These companies all show strong development potential and should be focused on. - **Successful cases worth learning from or referring to globally**: - American Snowflake Company achieved significant results through carpet English technology, which has made breakthroughs in IPC and accumulated a large amount of sales database. - Large cross-border e-commerce platforms also actively adopt AI technology for product introduction, marketing copy generation, and translation and customer service, which are important innovative fields of AI applications at present.

港股互联网(二)：本地生活与 OTA 投资机会梳理 20241210 摘要 • 2024 年本地生活和 OTA 市场表现强劲，美团和携程股价显著增长，反映 旅游业复苏和本地生活竞争格局变化。 • 本地生活领域到家业务（外卖）用户规模稳定，增速放缓，但即时零售（闪 购）增速显著高于普通外卖，客单价更高，变现潜力更大，下沉市场增长 强劲。 • 到店餐饮业务市场渗透率持续提升，预计未来 2-3 年内将有显著增长，新 兴平台的加入将加剧竞争，推动渗透率提升。到店综合服务市场也存在增 长潜力。 • 酒旅市场复苏强劲，2024 年国内旅游收入预计接近 6 万亿元，2025 年增 速有望超过 GDP 增速的 2-3 倍，线上渗透率持续提升，出境游市场恢复速 度快于预期。 • 美团在本地生活领域占据主导地位，核心本地商业板块盈利能力提升，即 时零售业务增长迅速；与抖音竞争中，虽然抖音 GTV 增长迅速，但由于核 销率差异，美团仍保持领先优势。 • 携程作为 OTA 龙头企业，在酒旅市场具有领先优势，出境游业务增长潜力 巨大，海外业务占比有望提升；同程旅行作为潜在竞争者，值得关注其估 值反转机会。 • OTA 行业整体表现优于 ...

深远海 海上风电更新与重点标的推荐 20241210 摘要 • 截至 2022 年底，中国海上风电并网容量为 38 吉瓦，占比不足 5%，未来 增长潜力巨大。 • 2023 年海上风电新增装机容量预计达 8-9 吉瓦，同比增长约 30%；2024 年预计达 13-15 吉瓦，江苏和广东贡献超过 60%。 • 近海风电资源有限，预计未来几年将逐步耗尽，深远海风电将成为新的发 展重点，资源总量约 1,300 吉瓦。 • 海上风电发展面临政府部门间资源协调困难，导致近海可开发资源远低于 理论储量。2022 年'330'方案旨在解决此问题，推动向深远海发展。 • 2025 年后，海上风电装机容量将持续增长，深远海开发成为重点。自然 资源部推动《深海管理办法》制定，但落地时间尚不明确。 • 深远海风电开发将显著影响产业链，预计 2027-2028 年大规模并网，带来 约 5-30GW 的装机容量增量，海缆、锚链、漂浮式基础等环节将受益。 • 深远海风电项目技术难度和成本高于近海项目，漂浮式基础技术发展和成 本下降将是关键。关注海缆、锚链、附体等产业环节投资机会。 Q&A 请介绍一下当前海上风电的发展现状和未来展望。 截 ...

政治局会议最新定调，有何深远影响 20241210 摘要 • 中央政治局会议强调适度宽松的货币政策和更加积极的财政政策，这是自 2008 年金融危机和 2020 年疫情以来首次，释放出政府将加大宏观经济调 控力度的强烈信号。 • 会议提出"加强超常规逆周期调节"，预示着未来将采取比以往更大力度 的政策干预，以应对当前经济下行压力，这可能包括大规模的财政支出和 货币宽松政策。 • 2025 年经济工作部署中，GDP 目标可能偏高，赤字率可能超过 4%，将通 过降准降息、发行特别国债和专项债等措施刺激经济增长。 • 会议首次提出"稳住楼市和股市"，表明政府将采取措施稳定房地产市场 和资本市场，以提振市场信心，这可能包括放松限购限售政策、增加房地 产收储规模等。 • 消费提振成为 2025 年经济工作主基调，政府将通过扩大以旧换新规模、 提高生育补贴、改善收入分配机制等措施，刺激消费增长，以应对需求不 足的挑战。 • 货币政策转向适度宽松，意味着降准降息将成为主要手段，这将增加人民 币贬值压力，但政府可能更容忍汇率波动。 • 财政政策将更加积极，赤字率可能达到 3.5%-4%甚至更高，专项债规模将 增加到 4.5 ...

Key Points Industry Overview and Investment Opportunities 1. **Sector Performance**: The Hong Kong internet sector is experiencing分化, with some companies like Meituan and JD.com rebounding after significant declines, while Alibaba and Tencent's performance aligns with the broader market. Alibaba and Meituan have underperformed recently due to platform economy regulations [doc id='1']. 2. **Core Logic**: The industry's core logic has shifted to enhancing user value (take rate) and user stickiness (up value), with monetization of traffic becoming crucial. Regulatory stability, overseas expansion, and shareholder returns are key factors driving valuation [doc id='1']. 3. **Game Sector**: The gaming sector is improving fundamentals, driven by new game releases and normalized license issuance. The mini-game sector has significant potential, with the market achieving year-on-year and sequential growth in Q3, with some games contributing billions in revenue [doc id='1']. 4. **E-commerce**: The top three e-commerce platforms (Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo) are seeing revenue growth. Pinduoduo's orders are growing steadily, and prices per order are increasing. Live commerce has formed a three-way competition, but monetization rates still have room to improve. The 618 data shows intense competition among the major players [doc id='1']. 5. **Short Video**: The short video sector is dominated by Douyin, Kuaishou, and Weixin, with significant potential for advertising and e-commerce monetization. Focus is on monetization rates and e-commerce performance growth, with platforms deepening their competitive advantages in niche areas [doc id='1']. 6. **Overseas Expansion**: Chinese e-commerce companies are actively expanding overseas, with Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and Tencent's gaming divisions demonstrating significant potential. This will open up new revenue growth opportunities and enhance valuation [doc id='1']. 7. **E-commerce Penetration**: China's e-commerce penetration rate has reached 30%, lower than that of developed markets in Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea. The low-cost advantage of domestic manufacturing offsets supply and demand imbalances in overseas markets, creating opportunities for cross-border e-commerce. Platforms like AliExpress have driven the growth of cross-border e-commerce transaction volume [doc id='1']. Company Performance 1. **Meituan and JD.com**: Both companies have seen significant declines in the past months, with Meituan and JD.com rebounding after significant declines. Their performance is driven by their strong fundamentals and growth prospects [doc id='2']. 2. **Alibaba**: The company's core business, Taobao, saw only 1% growth year-on-year, with direct sales and other revenue declining, but orders growing by double digits. The adjusted profit decreased by 5 percentage points. However, Alibaba Cloud achieved 7% revenue growth and adjusted profit increased by 89% to 2.6 billion yuan, becoming Alibaba's second-largest profit source. The company also completed a $4.1 billion share repurchase and plans to repurchase an additional $22 billion, enhancing market confidence [doc id='11']. 3. **Pinduoduo**: The company's revenue growth rate slowed to 44% in the third quarter, mainly due to increased competition in the e-commerce industry and increased investment in the ecosystem. However, its net profit reached 24.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%. The company's market capitalization PE ratio is 9.5 times, which is relatively low compared to its more than 60% growth rate, indicating potential for valuation appreciation [doc id='12']. 4. **JD.com**: The company showed strong profit growth, with its main highlight not being the e-commerce sector, but cost control and significant loss reduction in subsidiaries such as JD Logistics, significantly improving profitability. The company also completed its stock repurchase plan launched in March and initiated a new $5 billion stock repurchase plan, enhancing market confidence and the company's focus on shareholder returns [doc id='12']. 5. **Tencent**: The company's performance in the third quarter was impressive, with all business segments meeting or exceeding market expectations. Game revenue increased by 8%, advertising revenue increased by 17%, and financial technology and corporate services revenue increased by 2%. The gross margin remained stable. The fourth quarter is expected to be strong, driven by the launch of new games such as "Wangzhe Rongyao" and "Monster Hunter," as well as the growth of Weixin advertising. The company also actively repurchased shares, with an average daily repurchase of about 1 billion yuan, and plans to continue repurchasing, enhancing market confidence [doc id='9']. 6. **NetEase**: The company's overall performance in 2024 was average, with net revenue decreasing by 3.9% year-on-year and net profit decreasing by 16.6%. Although "World of Warcraft" and "Hearthstone" returned to China, and "Dahua Xianyu 2" and "The King of Fighters" achieved record-high revenues, the decline in revenues from old games like "Dream Journey" and "Dandan Party" affected overall performance. However, the company is expected to achieve growth in the fourth quarter through new games such as "Avengers Clash" on the PC platform and the upcoming "Yanyun 16 Sheng" on the PC platform. The company also showed its ability to control costs, and if it can continue to optimize its cost structure and marketing expenses, it will help improve profitability and achieve stable growth throughout the year [doc id='10']. Conclusion The Hong Kong internet sector is experiencing a period of transformation, with companies focusing on enhancing user value, monetizing traffic, and expanding overseas. While some companies have faced challenges, others have demonstrated strong growth prospects. Investors should pay attention to the performance of key companies and the overall industry trends to identify potential investment opportunities.

市场有风险投资需谨慎各位投资人大家早上好我是华商交易的吴承越欢迎大家收听我们周七月谈第三十七期的电话会议我们今天的会议主题是在意财政发力到航空表现如何传导首先我们的结论是站在当前时点可以对航空板块更加乐观其实我们在十一月初的时候发过一篇报告当时的标题就是财政发力到航空表现如何传导基于二零一八到二零一零年行情复盘的这样一个启示 那其实当时是我们这发这篇报告是基于在九月末一揽子政策出台之后呢我们是非常看好财政发力对于整个航空板块的一个催化所以我们对过往的这个08到101年相似环境下的这个船岛的这个节奏做了详细的复盘那最新呢我们也是看到在昨天12月的这个政治局会议非常积极的一个定调包括提出了实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 而上一次出现这个定调为适度宽松的货币政策正是在我们的布盘的这个08到09年出现以及昨天的会议呢还首次提出了加强超常规的这个逆周期条件以及全方位的扩大内需所以我们认为这一次其实从会议的这个政策方向上面是非常明确而且表态也是非常的稀奇的我们也期待晚些时候中央经济工作会议的这个进一步表述 所以整体来说我们站在当前的时间我们认为可以对于航空典型的内需顺周期品种更加的乐观尤其是在板块首先它当前还 ...

全方位扩内需，食饮如何选 20241210. 摘要 • 部分消费股基本面虽未完全恢复，但扩内需政策催化下，2024 年消费或 成经济主线，带来潜在投资机会。 • 白酒板块受淡季影响 10、11 月表现不佳，但春节旺季需求刚性，看好古 井贡、迎驾贡酒、今世缘等区域龙头。 • 长期来看，五粮液、茅台稳定性强，汾酒、古井贡、迎驾贡、今世缘等也 具有长期增长潜力，但需关注汾酒四季度潜在负增长风险。 • 大众食品赛道推荐三只松鼠等年货相关标的及港股华润饮料、农夫山泉， 乳制品板块明年有望向上发展。 • 餐饮供应链修复逻辑下，看好三只松鼠、青岛啤酒、保利食品、鲜味食品、 安井食品及海天味业等，尤其餐饮券发放将利好这些企业。 • 迎驾贡酒、今世缘、古井贡酒为推荐白酒标的，逻辑分别为：低库存、业 绩确定性强；产品结构升级，增长强劲；结构升级，省外市场稳健发展。 • 青岛啤酒受益于餐饮供应链修复及内需政策，业绩有望提升；速冻食品板 块 2024 年承压，2025 年取决于政策兑现情况，推荐安井食品；调味品板 块有望受政策刺激，推荐天味食品和保利食品。 Q&A 当前消费股的基本面表现如何？未来有哪些潜在的投资机会？ 尽管目前部分 ...

港股硬件：AI 应用升级背景下的港股硬件板块投资机会 20241210 摘要 • 恒生人工智能主题指数与恒生科技指数高度相关，相关系数高达 0.986， 核心成分股包括腾讯、阿里等大型科技企业，以及京东、快手等公司，反 映了 AI 在港股市场的渗透。 • 2024 年被认为是生成式 AI 手机爆发的元年，安卓厂商已实现 70 亿参数 大模型的本地化部署，预计到 2027 年，中国 AI 手机出货量将达 1.5 亿台， 占据中国 51.9%的市场份额。 • 2024 年也是 AIPC（人工智能个人电脑）元年，预计到 2027 年，中国 PC 市场将因 AIPC 装配比例攀升至 85%而结束负增长态势，并保持稳定增长。 • 小米是港股硬件板块值得关注的标的，其智能手机业务持续增长，并积极 拓展电动车和 IoT 业务，估值水平合理，未来新车型发布将成为催化剂。 • 比亚迪电子业务多元化，涵盖智能手机、汽车零部件、储能设备等领域， 在汽车电子领域表现积极，受益于母公司增长和液冷服务器业务，估值水 平较低，存在超预期机会。 • 瑞声科技核心业务包括光学、声学和结构件，光学业务转向盈利，2024 年全年集团预计营收同比增 ...

Summary of Conference Call on OPPO's SORA Model and Industry Impact Industry and Company Involved - **Company**: OPPO - **Industry**: Video Generation Technology Key Points and Arguments Launch and Features of SORA Model - OPPO launched the SORA model in Q3 2024, achieving significant advancements in video generation technology, optimizing costs, enhancing safety, and improving user experience [1][2] - The model supports three scenarios: text, image, sound, and video, along with five core functions that significantly enhance creative efficiency [1][2] Impact on Various Industries - The SORA model marks the maturity of video generation technology, deeply impacting industries such as film, education, and advertising, improving efficiency and sparking creativity [1][3] - AI-generated videos can reduce traditional filming costs and speed up production, transforming workflows in creative industries [3] Technical Limitations and Trade-offs - The current video generation length is limited to 20 seconds, which is a trade-off for maintaining video quality and coherence, not a regression in technology [1][4] - A time-dragging feature allows users to create longer videos by linking key frames from previous segments [4] Comparison with Domestic Competitors - Domestic large model companies face significant gaps compared to international leaders like SORA, particularly in video length, multi-angle switching, detail handling, and user experience [1][5][6] - Major domestic players include ByteDance, Kuaishou, and Tencent, but they struggle with data quality, computing power, and toolchain integration [5][7] Challenges for Domestic Players - Domestic companies face challenges in data volume and quality, computing power, and integration with professional user toolchains [7] - The need for improved synthetic data quality and increased computing power investment is critical for catching up with international standards [7] Impact on Video Editing Software - The SORA model poses a challenge to video editing software like Adobe Premiere Pro, but Adobe is actively embracing new technologies and may form partnerships with SORA for mutual benefits [1][8] Data Sources for SORA Model - The SORA model utilizes diverse data sources, including public data, social media, professional film materials, game engine-generated data, and CGI data, totaling millions of hours for training [1][9] Future Applications and Industry Impact - SORA is expected to have broad applications in both B2B and B2C sectors, including advertising, film special effects, and virtual reality content creation, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [1][10][11] - In the film industry, AI synthesis can significantly lower production costs and time, allowing for quicker approvals and style demonstrations [12] Educational and Other Sector Applications - In education, AI can recreate historical events for interactive teaching, enhancing student engagement and understanding [13] - E-commerce can leverage AI for personalized product displays, reducing costs and increasing flexibility in showcasing product features [15] - The gaming industry can use AI to generate 3D video data for scenes, improving development efficiency and enriching content [16] Key Issues Affecting Creative Industries - Current challenges include video length limitations, coherence, detail handling, spatial detail optimization, and generation speed [18][19] Technical Challenges in Frame Editing - Implementing frame-by-frame editing faces challenges such as effective frame recognition and ensuring natural transitions between segments [20]