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西巴尔干定期经济报告第26号,2024年秋季:保持增长势头(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:30
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Western Balkans, with an expected GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2024, up from 2.6 percent in 2023, suggesting a stable investment environment [21][22]. Core Insights - Economic growth in the Western Balkans is primarily driven by domestic demand rather than external factors, with significant contributions from consumption and investment [21][22]. - The labor market is improving, with employment rates reaching historical highs, although challenges such as labor shortages and skills mismatches persist [21][22]. - Poverty reduction continues, albeit at a slower pace, with an estimated annual decline of about 1 percentage point [21][22]. - Fiscal deficits are projected to widen in 2024, with the average fiscal deficit expected to reach 2.5 percent of GDP [23][24]. - Inflation rates are decreasing, with regional averages showing a decline from 4.4 percent to 3.2 percent by mid-2024 [23][24]. - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by sluggish export growth and elevated energy costs [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The Western Balkans economies are navigating a complex environment, with growth expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2024, supported by domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies [21][22]. 2. Growth Acceleration - Growth is driven by stronger consumption and investment, with Serbia projected to lead at 3.8 percent growth in 2024 [21][22]. 3. Employment Trends - Employment reached a historical high of 48.5 percent in June 2024, with significant job creation in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina [21][22]. 4. Poverty Reduction - Poverty reduction is ongoing but at a slower rate, with long-term unemployment affecting many households [21][22]. 5. Fiscal Policies - Fiscal deficits are set to increase, with the average expected to rise to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by broad-based spending increases [23][24]. 6. Inflation Trends - Inflation is decelerating, with a regional average of 3.2 percent by mid-2024, influenced by easing commodity prices [23][24]. 7. Financial Stability - Credit growth rebounded in 2024, reaching 9.4 percent, with stable asset quality in the financial sector [23][24]. 8. External Sector Dynamics - The current account deficit is projected to widen, with significant contributions from Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia [24][25]. 9. Growth Outlook - The growth outlook is positive, with consumption and investment expected to play a more significant role in the coming years [24][25]. 10. Spotlight on Migration - Migration remains a critical issue, with a significant portion of the population residing abroad, impacting labor markets and economic dynamics [28].
直面学习危机:201222年世界银行支持基础教育的经验教训——一项独立评估(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The World Bank has played a significant role in raising awareness and sharing knowledge about the learning crisis, particularly through its data and analytics, which have defined learning poverty and encouraged stakeholder engagement [17][30] - The World Bank is well-positioned to address the learning crisis due to its relationships with governments and its status as the largest external education funder, although its support could be more strategically focused [18][50] - The evaluation highlights the need for better monitoring and evaluation of learning outcomes, as many projects focus on outputs rather than actual changes in teaching and learning [19][40] Summary by Sections Overview - The World Bank has helped build awareness and convene stakeholders around quality basic education, emphasizing the importance of addressing the learning crisis [17] - The report identifies that the World Bank's financing for basic education typically tracks inputs and outputs, with limited assessment of changes in learning outcomes [19] Learning Crisis Context - Learning poverty was at 91% in low-income countries before the COVID-19 pandemic, worsening since then, particularly affecting disadvantaged children [21][22] - The report emphasizes that improving learning for all is more complex and costly than merely increasing access to education [23] Evaluation of World Bank's Contribution - The evaluation assesses the World Bank's support for basic education from 2012 to 2022, focusing on its systems approach and the effectiveness of its interventions [26] - The World Bank's portfolio for basic education operations during this period totaled $25 billion, with a concentration in the Africa Region [34] Recommendations - The report recommends developing country-specific education engagement plans that include systems-based enhancements to improve learning outcomes [58] - It also suggests collaborating with partners to close data gaps on learning outcomes and track progress in ending learning poverty [60][71]
欧洲和中亚宏观贫困展望:发展中国家的国别分析和预测,2024年年会(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust growth forecast for Albania at 3.3% in 2024, driven by private consumption, tourism, and construction [6][13][14] Core Insights - Albania's economy has shown resilience with a real GDP growth averaging 4.2% in 2022 and 2023, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies and proximity to the EU [7][9] - Key challenges include a declining population, poor labor quality, and rising fiscal pressures due to climate risks and debt refinancing [7][8] - The medium-term outlook hinges on the recovery of the global economy and the pace of structural reforms, particularly in the private sector [6][8] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Albania's GDP growth is projected at 3.3% for 2024, with private consumption and investment as main drivers [6][13] - The employment rate reached 66.7% at the end of 2023, with a decline in poverty to 21.7% [9][11] - Inflation averaged around 2.7% in Q1 2024, showing a declining trend due to lower import prices and currency appreciation [9][11] Key Conditions and Challenges - The economy's resilience is attributed to strong tourism and remittances from the EU, but challenges include a declining population and low-quality job creation [7][8] - Fiscal space needs to be created through a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy to address rising fiscal pressures [7][8] Recent Developments - In H1 2024, Albania's economy grew by 3.6%, with services and construction leading the growth [9][11] - The current account deficit widened due to increased imports, but net foreign direct investment rose by 8.5% [11][12] Outlook - Growth is expected to remain robust at 3.3% in 2024, with poverty projected to decrease further [13][14] - The primary balance is expected to improve, and public debt is projected to decline in the medium term [14][15]
莫桑比克通过蓝碳边界加强NDC雄心(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Mozambique's Blue Carbon ecosystems (BCEs) are crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation, with significant potential for carbon sequestration and resilience against climate impacts [16][26] - The upcoming 2025 NDC update presents an opportunity for Mozambique to enhance its commitments and address current shortcomings in its climate action plans [20][29] - International support in finance, technology transfer, and capacity building is essential for Mozambique to achieve its climate goals, with an estimated investment need of US$7.586 billion for 2020-2025 [18][30] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Blue carbon ecosystems, including mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, are vital for mitigating climate change and enhancing resilience [16] - The Global Stocktake emphasizes the importance of national efforts to protect ecosystems, with NDCs serving as key tools for climate action [17] Current NDC - Mozambique's current NDC includes a commitment to restore 5,000 hectares of mangrove forests by 2025 and aims to reduce 40 million tCO2eq from all sectors by 2030 [48][49] - The NDC lacks specific, quantifiable targets and monitoring mechanisms, making it difficult to measure progress [19][53] Implementation Status - Progress towards achieving NDC targets is limited due to vague commitments and insufficient data collection and monitoring capacity [53][55] - The report highlights the need for clear, actionable targets and robust tracking tools to ensure effective implementation of the NDC [22][24] Recommendations for 2025 NDC - The 2025 NDC should include specific targets for conservation and restoration of BCEs, as well as improved reporting mechanisms [22][23] - Mozambique should adopt market and non-market mechanisms to optimize financing opportunities for Blue Carbon initiatives [23][24] - Learning from best practices of other countries with successful Blue Carbon commitments can guide Mozambique in setting actionable targets [42][43]
莫桑比克蓝碳准备评估(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
ORLD BANK GROUP QB LUE 0 2024 IRBON S MOZAMBIQUE Public Disclosure Authorized ublic Disclosure Authorized ublic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorize © 2024 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 | Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group, with external contributions. "The World Bank Group" refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the ...
自然资源管理、脆弱性和冲突问题:国家气候与发展报告指导说明(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict-sensitive approaches in Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) to address the linkages between climate change, natural resource management, and fragility in conflict-affected situations [11][12][13] - It highlights the need for a holistic approach to tackle the impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence, particularly in relation to natural resource access and climate variability [12][13] - The report identifies untapped opportunities for enhancing climate change initiatives by adopting conflict-sensitive strategies early in program development [13] Section Summaries Section I: Key Natural Resource Management Considerations for CCDR Development in FCS - This section outlines key priorities for CCDR development, focusing on the nexus of fragility, conflict, environment, and natural resource management [17] - It reviews existing CCDRs from countries on the World Bank's FCS list, emphasizing the need to consider natural resource dependencies and vulnerabilities in climate change contexts [18] - The report discusses the impacts of climate change on food security, livelihoods, and social cohesion, highlighting the potential for increased conflict over natural resources [20][21][22] Chapter 1: Climate Change and Development - The chapter examines the relationship between natural resource dependency and vulnerability to climate and security risks, urging the identification of groups most affected by these dynamics [19] - It stresses the importance of understanding how climate disasters impact livelihoods and contribute to conflict risks [19] Chapter 2: Country Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities - This chapter addresses the weak institutional capacity in managing climate change impacts on natural resources, highlighting the need for coherent policies and resource allocation [32][33] - It emphasizes the role of non-state actors and the importance of community engagement in decision-making processes [32] Chapter 3: Sectoral Deep Dives - The chapter outlines the risks and drivers associated with different sectors and natural resources, including non-renewable and renewable resources [40][41] - It discusses the dynamics of extractive industries and the potential for conflict arising from resource mismanagement and inequality [42][43] Conclusion and Recommendations - The report concludes with recommendations for integrating conflict-sensitive approaches in CCDRs, emphasizing the need for inclusive governance and equitable resource management [25][30][39] - It highlights the importance of addressing the needs of marginalized groups and ensuring their participation in climate adaptation and mitigation efforts [30][36]
应对城市高温:世界银行城市高温议程的实施(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
WORLD BANK GROUP Combating Heat in Cities Operationalizing the Urban Heat Agenda at the World Bank Disclosure Aut Hyunji Lee, Jonathan Hasoloan, Hogeun Park, Terri B. Chapman, and José Siri lic Disclosure Auth 0 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretat ...
宜居太平洋城市交通指南:第1部分(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for Pacific cities to adopt a "car-lite" development pathway to reduce reliance on private vehicles and promote sustainable urban transportation options [8][13][12]. - It highlights that a significant portion of the population in Pacific cities lives within a short distance from city centers, making alternative transportation modes like walking, cycling, and public transit viable [12][10]. - The report outlines the expected benefits of reducing car dependency, including improved public health, reduced environmental impact, and enhanced social inclusion [76][86][85]. Summary by Sections Current Context - Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are experiencing rapid urbanization and increasing reliance on private cars, with vehicle registrations in Fiji growing by 254% from 2014 to 2022 [10][11]. - The historical high mode shares of public transit and walking are declining as car ownership rises, leading to potential congestion and infrastructure challenges [11][12]. Expected Benefits of a Car-Lite Development Pathway - The report identifies numerous benefits of reducing car dependency, including improved public health outcomes, reduced traffic-related fatalities, and lower air pollution levels [76][78][81]. - Active mobility is linked to better health outcomes, with physical inactivity being a significant public health issue in the region [80][81]. - Economic benefits include reduced fuel import bills and the potential for reallocating savings to other development needs [86]. Strategies for Implementation - The report outlines three main goals and nine strategies to promote a car-lite future: - **Goal A: Create Livable Streets for People** - Strategies include ensuring safe urban speeds and designing streets to prioritize walking and cycling [15][16]. - **Goal B: Promote Public Transit** - Strategies focus on making public transit the preferred choice for urban travel and using land use planning to support compact development [15][16]. - **Goal C: Manage Private Vehicle Ownership and Use** - Strategies involve controlling the quality and quantity of the car fleet and organizing parking to reduce chaos on streets [15][16].
冈比亚旅游业的性别评估(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
Tourism for Development Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness: from Crisis to Sustainability GENDER ASSESSMENT OF THE GAMBIAN TOURISM SECTOR Disclosure Authoriz June 2024 olic Disclosure Autho ic Disclosure Auth © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, nterpretations, and conclusions express ...
柬埔寨无障碍和负担得起的儿童保育服务的供需情况(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-11 20:25
AMBODIA CAMBODIA AND SOCIAL INCLUSION THE WORLD BANK GROUP blic Disclosure Authoriz Supply of and Demand for Accessible and Affordable Childcare Services in Cambodia ublic Disclosure Author ublic Disclosure ic Disclosure Auth © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this w ...