28 May 2025 | 5:19PM BST Hennes & Mauritz (HMb.ST) Updating 2Q/FY25 earnings for recent FX trends and related opex gearing; PT remains SKr125, Sell HMb.ST 12m Price Target: Skr125.00 Price: Skr139.15 Downside: 10.2% Ahead of the H&M May 2Q-end, we have updated our earnings for FX, reflecting a stronger Swedish Krona and the related adverse opex gearing (opex FX exposure c.75% of revenue exposure). For 2Q25E, we have reduced revenue growth to -4.3% (from -2.6%) driven by an FX impact of -5.2% (from -3.6%) an ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on InPost with a price target of EUR 19.5, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% [1]. Core Insights - InPost's share price has decreased by 12% year-to-date and 8% following the 1Q25 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. The management's cautious outlook on parcel volumes in Poland is attributed to weaker consumer sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties [1][15]. - Despite the cautious tone, there are indications of potential volume upside as Allegro anticipates a slight acceleration in GMV growth in 2Q, and April retail sales showed marked improvement compared to 1Q25 [1][15]. - Operationally, InPost has demonstrated strong execution, with a 10% year-over-year increase in volumes in Poland and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 47.9% [2][16]. Financial Performance - InPost's revenue forecast for 2025 is PLN 14,893.6 million, with an expected EBITA of PLN 2,688.2 million and EPS of PLN 3.22 [4][12]. - The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8x for the next 12 months, which is about a 20% discount compared to its three-year average [3][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin in the Eurozone improved to 13.5%, driven by a 29% year-over-year increase in B2C volumes and a 70 percentage point surge in APM usage [2][16]. Market Dynamics - InPost's performance in Poland remains resilient, with a 10% volume growth year-over-year, supported by an 18% increase in SME volumes [2][16]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a shift towards B2C, with volumes growing by 11% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][16]. - The integration of Yodel is a key focus for InPost in the UK, with early results showing a pro forma volume increase of 4x year-over-year and significant improvements in cost-to-serve [2][16]. Strategic Initiatives - InPost is well-positioned to unlock synergies from the Yodel integration and expand its APM reach in underserved rural areas, which is expected to enhance both volumes and margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond [15][16]. - The company is deepening its cross-border and merchant ecosystem, with cross-border sales now accounting for 20% of Eurozone volume [16][17]. Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates that real retail sales in Poland grew by 6.4% in April, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment [18][21]. - E-commerce sales in Poland also showed growth, with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in April, driven by order growth and an increase in average order value [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Kingfisher with a price target (PT) of 305p [1][3][33] Core Insights - Kingfisher experienced a positive start to the year, particularly in the UK and France, with 1Q26 like-for-like (LFL) sales increasing by 1.8%, and 2.7% when excluding a negative calendar impact [2][3] - The UK & Ireland reported a strong LFL sales growth of 5.9%, driven by B&Q's 7.9% and Screwfix's 2.9% growth, while France and Poland faced declines of 3.2% [2][3] - The report highlights that some of the growth in the UK during 1Q may have been pulled forward from 2Q, and management remains cautious with unchanged earnings guidance [1][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance for FY26 is set between £480 million and £540 million, with an updated FY26E PBT forecast of £524 million [3][5] - Online sales grew by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 20% to group sales, and trade penetration, including Screwfix, increased to 29% from 26% in 1Q25 [2][3] - The report projects total revenue for FY26E at £12,661.7 million, with a slight decline from the previous year, but anticipates a growth of 3.0% in FY27E [5][16] Regional Performance - In the UK, sales are expected to grow from £6,456 million in FY25 to £6,689.9 million in FY26E, reflecting a growth rate of 3.6% [29] - France's sales are projected to decline from £3,883 million in FY25 to £3,746.3 million in FY26E, indicating a challenging market environment [31] - The Polish market is experiencing a decline, with LFL sales down by 3.2%, reflecting geopolitical impacts on the DIY market [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-derived price target of 305p, equating to approximately 12x FY27E P/E [33][34] - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E of 13.7 for FY26E and a free cash flow yield of 8.5% [5][11] - The report notes a dividend yield of 4.2% for FY26E, with a consistent dividend payout ratio [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%, with a median of 1.8%, after adjustments for weather and leap years [5]. - The top-down approach indicates a significant increase in total power demand, highlighting a divergence from the bottom-up approach due to the sample size of utilities covered [9]. Summary by Sections Bottom-Up Analysis - The bottom-up approach utilized earnings reports from various US power utilities, adjusting for weather and leap-year effects to derive a growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - Utilities such as Xcel Energy (XEL) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) reported demand growth in line with their annual expectations, with XEL maintaining a 3% growth forecast for retail sales in 2025 [9]. Top-Down Analysis - The top-down analysis, based on EIA data, shows a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - The report notes that the differences between the two approaches may stem from the sample of utilities representing only 25-30% of overall US power sales, as well as varying weather adjustment methodologies [9]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regional variations in demand can be significant, and the national weather-adjustment methodology may overestimate demand during extreme weather events [9]. - Large load customers are expected to continue driving demand, while residential demand is anticipated to grow due to customer increases and higher usage [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Big Yellow (BYG.L) with a 12-month price target of 1,110p, implying a 12.5% upside from the current price of 987p [1][33]. Core Insights - Revenue growth is expected to decelerate due to a subdued demand environment, with occupancy forecasted to remain stable at around 80.3% to 81% for FY26E and FY27E [2][3]. - The company's balance sheet is strong, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1x and a loan-to-value ratio of 12.8%, the lowest in the sector [3][4]. - Valuation appears fair, trading at a 6.3% earnings yield, above its long-term average of 4.6%, and at a 31% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) [4][28]. Revenue and Occupancy - Revenue growth is projected to slow, with occupancy rates expected to stabilize at 80.3% in FY26E and 81% in FY27E, compared to 79.1% in FY24/25 [2][36]. - The average rent achieved has declined to 3.2% year-on-year since its peak of 8.6% in FY23 [20][36]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS forecasts for FY26E to FY28E have been updated with a change of -2% for FY26E and a 0% change for FY27E [1][32]. - The forecasted total revenue for FY26E is £183.2 million, with a projected EBITDA of £133.9 million [14][36]. Development Pipeline - Big Yellow has a development pipeline of 14 sites, with 9 currently under construction, expected to generate a net operating income (NOI) of £36.6 million, yielding 8.7% [3][36]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that Big Yellow's valuation reflects both upside and downside risks, with a current earnings yield of 6.3% and a significant discount to NTA [4][28]. - The forecasted dividend yield is expected to increase from 4.2% in FY25 to 5.2% by FY28 [11][36].

28 May 2025 | 5:02PM EDT HP Inc. (HPQ): F2Q25 First Take: Miss and lower on PC demand & margins Bottom line: HPQ should trade lower on the miss and lower. The miss in the quarter was driven by PC margins, with the lowered guidance reflecting moderated demand due to macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff costs. In particular, HPQ's PC industry outlook is now for LSD% unit growth yoy (v. MSD% prior). Revenue was only in line, despite likely benefiting from some degree of demand pull-forward. On the call, we wil ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Sicoya, reflecting confidence in its growth potential driven by technology advancements in silicon photonics [2][14]. Core Insights - Sicoya's management is optimistic about revenue growth in 2025, primarily due to the increasing adoption of silicon photonics in data centers to meet high-speed transmission demands [4][7]. - The company has commenced mass production of its 200G/lane silicon photonics chips in 2025, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue [4][6]. - The transition to co-packaged optics (CPO) is anticipated to enhance the adoption rate of 800G and 1.6T products, with major tech companies already working on CPO solutions [7]. Company Profile - Sicoya is an early entrant in the silicon photonics interconnect solutions market, with manufacturing facilities in China and Europe. The company primarily serves data centers and has a smaller revenue stream from telecom communications [3]. - As a fabless company, Sicoya competes with global peers such as Intel, Cisco, and Airlab [3]. 2025 Outlook - Management's positive outlook for 2025 is based on the anticipated rise in silicon photonics adoption in data centers, driven by the need for higher transmission speeds [4][6]. - The company expects to see revenue contributions from its new products starting in 2026 [6]. CPO Impact - The shift towards CPO is expected to not only enhance silicon photonics adoption but also impact various components within the supply chain, including switch chips and cooling systems [7].

Exhibit 1: Valuations | | | Rating | Target price (¥) | | Upside/ | P/E(X) | | EV/EBITDA(X) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Ticker | | New | Old | Downside FY1E | | FY2E | FY1E | FY2E | | Nissin Foods HD | 2897.T | Neutral | 3,700 | 3,900 | 20.0% | 16.7 | 16.8 | 8.9 | 8.7 | | | | Mkt cap | EBIT YoY | | EV/NOPAT(X) | | P/B(X) ROE | | DY | | | Ticker | (¥ bn) | FY1E | FY2E | FY1E | FY2E | FY1E | FY1E | FY1E | | Nissin Foods HD | 2897.T | 933 | -0.8% | 0.2% | 17.1 | 17.1 | ...

28 May 2025 | 8:01AM AEST Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp. (FPH.AX): First Take: Hospital consumables and GM% to drive FY26 upgrades FPH delivered a strong FY25 result with total revenue and NPAT broadly in line with our estimates and ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus by ~1% and 4%. Compositionally, solid growth in FPH's new application consumables and hardware segments were the key drivers for Hospital segment revenue coming ahead of VA consensus by ~2% (-1% vs Gse). The strong recovery in Gross Margin ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Poly and CMSK [2][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights improving land investment efficiency among developers, with 86% of land bank investments concentrated in the Top 10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards better-performing markets [1][28]. - The analysis suggests that new acquisitions by six key developers are expected to yield gross profit margins (GPM) in the mid-teen% to over 20%, an improvement from below teen% levels for land acquired before 2024 [1][35]. - The average return on equity (ROE) from these new acquisitions is projected to be around 8%, aligning with historical trends and supporting a valuation recovery [1][35][43]. Summary by Sections Best Performing Cities - The Top 10 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, have shown resilient pricing trends and signs of price stabilization in both primary and secondary markets [5][6]. - Home sales volume in these cities has indicated a year-on-year recovery trend, with a 36%/2% decline compared to the peak month in 2021 and the monthly average in 2024 [10][12]. Margin & ROE Improvement - The report notes that the concentration of land investment in the Top 10 cities has increased significantly, with these cities accounting for 86% of new land investments since 2024, compared to about half from 2018-2023 [28][29]. - The expected GPM for new acquisitions is projected to reach an average of 14% for 2026E-2027E, compared to an average of 13% in 2024 [35][37]. Upward Revisions - The report revises the 2026E/27E GPM for the six developers by an average of 0.2pt/0.7pt and their target prices by 1-5%, reflecting a more positive outlook on price trends and land acquisitions [2][37]. - The earnings estimates for 2025E-27E are projected to be approximately 10% above consensus, driven by higher topline and margin expectations [40][41].