Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on AstraZeneca (AZN) and a Sell rating on Roche (ROG) [8] Core Insights - The SERD (Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader) class of breast cancer therapies is expected to be a significant focus for investors, with a potential market value exceeding $15 billion by 2035 due to a global patient population of over 500,000 [1] - AstraZeneca's camizestrant is projected to achieve peak sales of $5.5 billion, while Roche's giredestrant is forecasted to reach $4.8 billion [2] - The SERENA-6 trial for camizestrant is anticipated to present pivotal data at ASCO in June 2025, which could serve as a catalyst for market recognition of its unique positioning [2][3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that camizestrant is well-positioned to become the leading second-generation oral SERD, particularly due to its trial design and early patient treatment strategy [2][7] - The potential for camizestrant to capture a 30% market penetration in the US is based on its clinical strategy of treating patients before disease progression, contrasting with competitors targeting post-progression patients [22] Clinical Trial Insights - The SERENA-6 trial is expected to demonstrate a progression-free survival (PFS) of at least 12 months, with a bull case scenario projecting 17 months [3][19] - Camizestrant's design differentiates it from competitors by enrolling patients who have developed ESR1 mutations without disease progression, which may lead to better clinical outcomes [11][17] - Safety concerns regarding camizestrant, particularly cardiac and ocular adverse events, are noted but are not seen as significant issues due to low discontinuation rates in earlier trials [13][17] Sales Forecasts - The report estimates that camizestrant could generate approximately $1 billion in global peak sales from the SERENA-6 trial, with an increase from previous estimates due to its earlier treatment strategy [22][23] - The consensus estimate for camizestrant's unrisked peak sales is around $5.2 billion, with the report's estimate slightly higher at $5.5 billion [23] Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive positioning of camizestrant against other SERDs, emphasizing its superior bioavailability and lack of significant drug-drug interactions, which may enhance its use in combination therapies [14][15] - The potential for camizestrant to be preferred over other SERDs in clinical practice is supported by its trial design and efficacy data [16][17] Future Considerations - The report anticipates that the outcomes of the SERENA-6 trial will influence the sequencing of SERD therapies in clinical practice, particularly regarding the timing of treatment initiation based on ESR1 mutation detection [20][32] - The upcoming data releases from related trials, including ROG's persevERA, are expected to provide further insights into the competitive dynamics of the SERD market [27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Info Edge India Ltd. (INED.BO) with a revised 12-month target price of Rs1,720, indicating an upside potential of 18.2% from the current price of Rs1,454.65 [1][2]. Core Insights - Info Edge's management maintains a positive outlook for growth despite expected reinvestments in the business. The company reported a 5% year-over-year EBITDA growth in 4QFY25, which was below expectations, while revenue growth was robust at 13% year-over-year [1]. - Recruitment billings grew by 18% year-over-year in 4QFY25, with expectations to maintain similar growth in FY26. However, a more conservative forecast of 14% year-over-year growth for the recruitment segment in FY26 is anticipated due to a bearish outlook on IT sector growth [1][12]. - The matrimony segment showed continued share gains and improving margins, although it represents only 1-2% of the company's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [1]. - Real estate profitability is expected to improve over the long term, despite current growth tracking slightly lower than expectations [1]. - The potential for increased dividend payouts was highlighted as a possible catalyst for the stock [1]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue growth for Info Edge is forecasted to accelerate to 15% year-over-year in FY26, up from 11% in FY25, driven by an improving billings trajectory [2][14]. - EBITDA estimates have been adjusted downwards by 4-7% due to near-term investments, but overall EBITDA growth is expected to be over 20% [2][14]. - The report indicates a decrease in revenue estimates for the recruitment vertical by about 1% for FY26/27E, while outer year forecasts remain higher due to stronger growth in non-IT and adjacent verticals [12][14]. Segment Performance - Recruitment, which constitutes 47% of the company's SOTP, saw billings growth of 18% year-over-year in 4QFY25, with various sub-segments performing well [12]. - The real estate segment experienced a 22% year-over-year growth in billings, attributed to an increase in both billed customers and average billing per customer, although EBIT margins worsened due to increased marketing spends [12]. - The matrimony segment reported a strong 24% year-over-year growth in billings, with expectations for continued growth and improved margins [12][13]. Financial Metrics - The company had a cash balance of Rs48 billion as of March 2025 and announced a final dividend of Rs3.6, resulting in a full-year dividend of Rs6 per share, reflecting a 40% payout ratio [15]. - Margins contracted in 4QFY25 due to increased personnel and advertising costs, but EBITDA growth is expected to rebound to 24% year-over-year in FY26 [15].

Entel SA (ENTEL.SN) Trimming Estimates Post-1Q25 27 May 2025 | 5:20PM BRT | ENTEL.SN | | --- | | 12m Price Target: Ch$3,450 | | Price: Ch$2,791 | | Upside: 23.6% | We incorporate 1Q25 earnings as well as updated macro/FX assumptions, lowering estimates particularly in Chile, given i) somewhat more-conservative ARPU assumptions amid continued competitive pressure from AMX and WOM in mobile, though we already assumed some increased competition this year; ii) weaker-than-expected fiber trends, with management ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Okta, indicating confidence in the company's potential for growth stabilization and execution on its go-to-market strategy [3][17]. Core Insights - Okta's 1QFY revenue was 1% above expectations, with a cRPO (current Remaining Performance Obligations) 2% above and EBIT margin approximately 200 basis points above [1]. - The company is experiencing a sequential decline in subscription revenue growth and cRPO, which has raised concerns about future performance [1][15]. - Despite these challenges, Okta is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of AI technologies among its customers, with initiatives like Auth for GenAI expected to enhance its offerings [3][15]. Financial Performance - For FY26, revenue guidance remains unchanged at $2,859 million, with EBIT margin guidance also maintained [1][17]. - The company reported a net revenue retention (NRR) rate of 106%, slightly down from 107% in the previous quarter, and is expected to remain within the 106-108% range for the remainder of FY26 [1][15]. - cRPO bookings grew 9% year-over-year, but this represents a 23% quarter-over-quarter decline, indicating volatility in forward subscription revenue [15]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted 12-month price target for Okta is set at $137, based on a valuation of 25 times EV/uFCF [17]. - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth rates of 15.3% for FY25, 9.5% for FY26, and 10.5% for FY27 [9]. - The report highlights a free cash flow yield of 4.9% for FY25, decreasing to 3.4% by FY26 [9]. Market Context - Okta's market capitalization is approximately $22.9 billion, with an enterprise value of $20.5 billion [4]. - The company is positioned within the Americas Emerging Software sector, ranking 3rd in M&A activity [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (SRPT) is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $100, indicating a potential upside of 160.8% from the current price of $38.35 [8][9]. Core Insights - The commentary from the newly-appointed FDA CBER Director, Dr. Vinay Prasad, suggests that the full approval of Elevidys for ambulatory patients is likely to remain intact, barring any serious safety events [1][6]. - There is a risk to Elevidys' accelerated approval in non-ambulatory patients, which constitutes approximately half of the market, depending on confirmatory data expected in 2027 [1][6]. - The company has projected $13 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2030 and is focusing on pipeline diversification, including early Phase 1 data in other muscular dystrophies [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for SRPT are estimated to grow from $1.9 billion in 2024 to $4.3 billion by 2027 [9]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of $102.6 million in 2025 to a profit of $2.1 billion by 2027 [9]. - The forecasted Free Cash Flow yield is projected to increase from -2.8% in 2024 to 64.0% by 2027 [9]. Regulatory Environment - The new CBER Director emphasized the importance of regulatory flexibility in rare diseases and gene therapy, indicating a supportive stance towards maintaining previous approvals unless new safety concerns arise [2][6]. - The Director's approach suggests that accelerated approval pathways will continue to be utilized, particularly in the context of rare diseases and oncology [6]. Market Context - The market capitalization of SRPT is currently $3.7 billion, with an enterprise value of $3.3 billion [9]. - The company is facing competitive risks as other firms are also developing treatments for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), including RNA-based therapies and gene therapies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) since December 10, 2021, with a 12-month price target of $39.00, indicating an upside potential of 22.6% from the current price of $31.81 [6][25]. Core Insights - Management expressed confidence that the renewal with Shopify will not lead to a decoupling but will enhance the economics of the third-party (3P) solution, potentially accelerating Managed Markets volumes [1]. - The company is experiencing a growing pipeline, with some projects moving faster than expected due to tariff impacts, which could positively influence momentum into 2026 [1]. - The implementation backlog for the second half of the year is less concentrated than in 2024, reducing implementation risks [1]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, same-store sales (SSS) trends are tracking in line with expectations, with management reiterating guidance for 2025 [14][16]. - The renegotiation with Shopify is viewed positively, with management indicating that it will be net beneficial for GLBE, despite some changes in exclusivity and unit economics [14][17][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $752.8 million in 2024 to $1,393.4 million by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from $140.8 million to $339.4 million over the same period [2][11]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from $0.64 in 2024 to $1.63 in 2027 [2][11]. - The forecasted free cash flow yield is expected to rise from 2.7% in 2024 to 6.1% by 2027 [2][11]. Market Position and Valuation - GLBE's market capitalization is approximately $5.6 billion, with an enterprise value of $5.0 billion [2]. - The company is positioned favorably with limited U.S. exposure (12% of inbound volume) and limited U.S. de-minimis exposure, which should help navigate current trade dynamics [1]. - The report suggests that the renegotiation with Shopify could lead to a mid-single-digit benefit to EBITDA in 2026, with potential for a 10% upside by 2027 if Managed Markets adoption accelerates [21][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meiji Holdings is Neutral, with a 12-month target price revised to ¥3,400 from ¥3,500, reflecting a slight decrease in operating profit estimates [1][18][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that operating profits for FY3/25 are expected to miss guidance, primarily due to anticipated shortfalls in sales across domestic milk, the dairy overseas business, and the vaccines/animal health business [1][17]. - The company has a significant market share in Japan for dairy products, chocolate, and protein products, but its growth prospects are considered to be adequately reflected in the current share price [22]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring input costs, price hikes, and sales recovery in the food segment, as well as growth in the pharmaceuticals segment, particularly in vaccines and overseas business expansion [19][22]. Financial Estimates - FY3/26 operating profit estimates have been adjusted by -0.1% for the overall company, with specific adjustments of +¥0.7 billion for the food segment and +¥0.2 billion for the pharmaceuticals segment, while adjustments account for a decrease of -¥1.0 billion [1][17]. - Sales estimates for FY3/26 are projected at ¥1,192.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][20]. - The net profit for FY3/26 is estimated at ¥53.9 billion, with an EPS of ¥202.1 [3][20]. Segment Performance - The food segment's operating profit is expected to be ¥70.7 billion for FY3/26, while the pharmaceuticals segment is projected at ¥25.7 billion [20]. - Key areas of focus for the food segment include dairy, chocolate, and nutrition, with specific sales estimates for dairy at ¥273.5 billion and chocolate at ¥177.2 billion for FY3/26 [20]. - The pharmaceuticals segment is anticipated to see growth driven by vaccines and the expansion of the overseas CMO/CDMO business, despite challenges from drug price revisions [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) from Buy to Neutral, with a 6-month price target of $19.00, indicating a downside of 15.4% from the current price of $22.47 [1][2]. Core Insights - The recent share outperformance of PARR, which returned +52% since being added to the Buy list, has led to a reassessment of its valuation, now seen as more balanced compared to peers [1][14]. - The refining sector outlook remains constructive, supported by increased OPEC+ production and tightening supply/demand dynamics, but the report emphasizes a selective approach to stock preferences [1][19]. - PARR's earnings contributions from Retail and Logistics are highlighted as attractive, with potential for growth in these segments [1][29]. Summary by Sections Valuation and Performance - PARR shares have outperformed the S&P Energy sector, with a total return of +52% compared to the S&P Energy's 11% and the S&P's 2% [1]. - The report notes that PARR's valuation now reflects the improving refining margin environment in Hawaii and Washington, with less relative upside compared to Buy-rated stocks like VLO, MPC, and DINO [1][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for PARR are estimated at $7,974.5 million for 2024, decreasing to $6,251.9 million in 2025, and then slightly recovering to $6,139.1 million by 2027 [3][12]. - EBITDA is projected to decline from $250.6 million in 2024 to $227.9 million in 2025, before increasing to $302.6 million by 2027 [3][12]. Segment Contributions - Non-refining segments, particularly Retail and Logistics, are expected to contribute over 50% of the company's earnings, with Retail projected to account for 22% and Logistics for 35% of EBITDA in 2024 [29][33]. - The report applies an 8.0x multiple to Retail and a 7.0x multiple to Logistics on normalized EBITDA, indicating significant value in these segments [29][31]. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Management's commitment to capital allocation includes a focus on share repurchases and deleveraging, with an estimated return of ~$100 million to shareholders in 2026, representing a ~9% capital returns yield [29][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining balance sheet strength, particularly with a gross leverage target of 3-4x [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Salesforce Inc. with a price target of $340.00, representing an upside of 22.7% from the current price of $277.19 [1][3][19]. Core Insights - Salesforce's acquisition of Informatica for $8 billion at a 30% premium is expected to enhance its capabilities in data management and governance, supporting a unified architecture for AI applications [1][2][15]. - The acquisition is projected to be the largest by revenue in Salesforce's history, with Informatica's revenue guidance for FY25 at $1.7 billion [2][3]. - Salesforce is positioned to capitalize on the digital transformation trend, with a total addressable market (TAM) of $284 billion for its product portfolio [15][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from $37.9 billion in FY25 to $50.3 billion in FY28, with EBITDA increasing from $15.98 billion to $19.93 billion over the same period [3][12]. - The report anticipates continued operating margin expansion, projecting a 35%+ operating margin and free cash flow per share of $17-18 in FY27 [14][15]. Market Positioning - Salesforce is viewed as a strategic player in the $1 trillion+ cloud industry, with a robust product portfolio that spans various aspects of digital transformation [15][16]. - The company is expected to improve its unit economics and expand its share of wallet within existing customer accounts, leveraging its large installed base [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that Salesforce trades at 17x EV/CY26 free cash flow, compared to an average of ~28x for its peers, indicating a compelling risk/reward profile [14][19]. - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 28.2 in FY25 to 18.4 in FY28, and an EV/EBITDA ratio decreasing from 16.8 to 11.5 over the same period [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for VNET Group, with a 12-month price target of US$13, indicating a potential upside of 115.2% from the current price of US$6.04 [13][15]. Core Insights - VNET Group reported strong 1Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year to Rmb2,246 million, and adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year to Rmb682 million, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][3]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional retail IDC operator to a rapidly growing wholesale IDC operator, with expectations of significant revenue and EBITDA growth driven by increased AI investments [13]. - Wholesale IDC revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52% from 2024 to 2027, while EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% during the same period [13]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, wholesale IDC revenue surged by 86% year-over-year, accounting for 30% of total revenue, while retail IDC revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, marking its first positive growth since 4Q23 [1][3]. - The average monthly service revenue (MSR) increased by 7% year-over-year but decreased by 19% quarter-over-quarter to Rmb568k per MW per month [7]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, with a capex plan of Rmb10-12 billion [1]. Capacity and Orders - VNET secured 119MW of wholesale orders in 1Q25, including significant contracts with leading cloud computing customers [2]. - As of 1Q25, VNET had 573MW of wholesale capacity in service, with a commitment rate nearing 100% [11][4]. - The total capacity under construction decreased to 377MW, while the total capacity held for future development is 670MW [11]. Market Position and Outlook - VNET is positioned as a leading carrier-neutral data center operator in China, with approximately 74% of its 2024 revenue derived from IDCs [13]. - The report suggests that rising contributions from wholesale IDC revenue and EBITDA may lead to continued upward re-rating of multiples and valuation compounding for VNET [13].