Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report raises end-2025 US 2y/10y yield forecasts to 3.9%/4.5% from 3.3%/4.0% due to a larger-than-expected decline in US-China tariffs [3]. - It anticipates global real GDP growth to slow to 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs [3]. - The report expects US real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [3]. - In China, real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges from higher US tariffs and domestic issues [3][13]. - The Euro area is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, amid elevated trade policy uncertainty [3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, with US GDP growth at 1.0% and China at 4.6% [15]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue rate cuts until the policy rate reaches 1.75% in July 2025 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US policy and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-China relations and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [13]. - It notes that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy poses significant risks to both the US and global economies [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market has experienced a significant rebound, with the S&P index rising approximately 20% from April lows, and all equity markets performing well [2][3] - Oil and gas prices have decreased materially, providing a potential tailwind for the economy, assuming it does not signal a recession [2][3] - There has been a notable increase in M&A activity, with numerous deals ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion announced in the past six weeks despite tariff concerns [2][3] - Retail investors have shown significant engagement, with net buying in the U.S. reaching an annualized rate of approximately $200 billion to $300 billion [17] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards cyclical stocks over defensive ones, with a notable demand for sectors like technology, healthcare, energy, and industrials [12][24] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of tariffs, noting a de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff increases, which are now at 30% and 15% respectively, significantly lower than previous expectations [13][14] - Recession probabilities have decreased to around 35%, and GDP growth estimates for the U.S. and China have been revised upwards [13][14] - The market is currently driven by hard data such as high employment and stable GDP, rather than uncertainties surrounding tariffs [9][10] Retail Investor Influence - Retail investors have increasingly influenced market dynamics, particularly through the "buy the dip" strategy, which has been prominent during market downturns [17] - The report notes the growing relevance of retail investors, who now account for approximately 30% of daily trading volumes and 53% of equity ownership in the U.S. [17] M&A Activity - The report indicates a steady pace of mid-cap M&A activity, driven by the need for growth in a low GDP growth environment [21][24] - There is an emphasis on the challenges faced by small and mid-cap companies in a concentrated market, highlighting the importance of scale [21][24] IPO Market - The report mentions a resurgence in IPO activity, with strong investor demand and oversubscriptions for recent listings such as eToro and Aspen [19][20] - There is a backlog of companies waiting for favorable market conditions to go public, indicating a potential increase in future IPOs [19][20] Economic Indicators - The report notes a significant gap between hard data (employment and GDP) and soft data (ISM, PMI, consumer confidence), which is at one of the widest levels since the 1970s [9][10] - Concerns remain regarding inflation and the potential impact of tariff delays on the economy [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 29.8% from the current price of HK$90.15 [17][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Anta, driven by strong sales momentum in the outdoor segment and a robust multi-brand strategy that is expected to enhance market share and profit growth [3][8]. - Amer Sports reported a significant revenue growth of 23% year-over-year, outperforming consensus estimates, with a notable 43% growth in Greater China, which is seen as a positive indicator for Anta's performance [2][8]. - The report suggests that the strong results from Amer Sports could alleviate investor concerns regarding tariff impacts on Anta's profit and loss [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $299 million in 1Q25, exceeding consensus estimates of $228 million, with an adjusted gross margin expansion of approximately 330 basis points year-over-year to 58.0% [2]. - Anta is expected to benefit from Amer's contribution, with an estimated RMB 983 million associate income projected for 2025, accounting for about 7% of Anta's net income in China [7]. Market Trends - The report notes that the premium outdoor segment in China remains healthy, which is favorable for Anta's outdoor brands such as Descente and Kolon [8]. - Smaller sportswear brands are outpacing larger brands in sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences that could benefit Anta [12]. Strategic Initiatives - Amer Sports plans to optimize its retail footprint in China, focusing on store productivity rather than aggressive expansion, which is expected to lead to revenue growth in the coming years [11]. - The management of Amer Sports has reiterated its commitment to expanding its compact shop format in China, which has shown higher sales per square foot compared to industry averages [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alphabet Inc. with a 12-month price target of $220 [8][24][27]. Core Insights - Alphabet is accelerating its AI innovation, particularly through the integration of Gemini AI capabilities across its product suite, which includes Search, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, Workspace, Google Cloud, and Android/Pixel [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to adapt to the evolving landscape of AI-powered search, with innovations such as AI Overviews and AI Mode, which are expected to enhance user engagement and monetization [2][14]. - Alphabet's long-term strategic positioning is bolstered by its extensive user base, personalization capabilities, and infrastructure, which are seen as competitive advantages as the industry transitions to AI monetization [14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $295.1 billion in 2024 to $406.6 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [3][11]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from $127.7 billion in 2024 to $187.9 billion in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [3][11]. - EPS is forecasted to rise from $8.04 in 2024 to $10.59 in 2027, demonstrating robust earnings growth [3][11]. Key Developments - Notable announcements from the Google I/O keynote include the launch of Gemini 2.5, enhancements to AI Overviews in Search, and the introduction of new features in Workspace and Google Cloud [15][18][25]. - The AI Mode in Search is rolling out to users in the U.S., which includes features like Personal Context Mode and Deep Search, aimed at improving user experience and engagement [18][19]. - The introduction of new AI-driven tools such as Canvas for co-creation and Flow for film creation highlights Alphabet's commitment to expanding its AI capabilities across various applications [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month target price of US$26.0, reflecting an upside potential of 45.4% from the current price of US$17.88 [18][19]. Core Insights - Pony AI reported 1Q25 revenues of US$14 million, representing a 12% year-over-year increase but a 61% decrease quarter-over-quarter. The operating loss narrowed to US$56 million from US$173 million in 4Q24, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][12]. - The company is ramping up its robotaxi operations, with fare-charging revenues increasing by 800% year-over-year. The Gen7 robotaxi model is entering mass production, with plans to deploy a total of 1,000 robotaxis by year-end [1][12]. - Partnerships with major companies like Tencent and Uber are expected to enhance user base and service integration, further supporting revenue growth [12][18]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, gross profit was US$2 million, with a gross margin of 16.6%, down from previous quarters due to increased sales of domain controllers [12]. - The company’s net income loss narrowed to US$43 million from US$181 million in 4Q24, indicating a trend towards improved financial health [12]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2026, with a slight increase in gross margin estimates to 16.2% and 16.9% respectively, supported by larger operational scale [9][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Robotaxi revenues in 1Q25 were US$1.7 million, up 200% year-over-year, while robotruck revenues were US$7.8 million, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase [7]. - Licensing and applications revenues remained stable at US$4.5 million, with growth driven by new clients in the autonomous domain [7]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation is based on a discounted EV/EBITDA method, applying a target multiple of 13.5x for 2031E EBITDA, reflecting a higher forward year EBITDA growth of 21% in 2032E [11][15]. - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 upwards by 0% to 1%, indicating faster fleet deployment than previously expected [9][10]. Market Position - Pony AI is positioned as a leader in Level 4 autonomous mobility, operating fully driverless robotaxis in major Chinese cities and expanding its global footprint with road test qualifications in Luxembourg and South Korea [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US equities, indicating a narrower path for further gains while highlighting opportunities in emerging markets (EM) assets and carry strategies [2][11][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while trade tensions have eased, the US still faces significant growth-inflation challenges, leading to a weaker dollar and a steeper UST curve [2][19][26]. - It notes that the expected tariff shifts have reduced some tail risks, allowing equity investors to overlook certain weaknesses in economic data [7][11]. - The outlook for growth is described as "soggy," which may favor carry strategies over cyclical risks, particularly in the context of lower volatility and a more stable inflation environment [11][39]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience sluggish but non-recessionary growth, with inflation remaining sticky [11][19]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance unless significant weakness in the job market is observed [22][39]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards a more balanced return outlook globally, with a focus on diversified risky asset portfolios [26][30]. - Emerging market equities are noted for their potential upside, given their current undervaluation compared to US equities [30][32]. Risks and Opportunities - The report identifies a potential rise in unemployment as a key risk that could reignite recession fears, impacting risky assets negatively [16][39]. - It suggests that the path for a weaker dollar remains wide, driven by easing trade tensions and a favorable outlook for EM currencies [26][28]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends combining diversified equity positions with hedges, particularly in anticipation of key economic data releases [2][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in both equity and bond allocations to mitigate risks associated with potential economic downturns [39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of Rmb23.80, indicating an upside potential of 24.9% from the current price of Rmb19.06 [9]. Core Insights - The management of Foxconn Industrial Internet remains optimistic about growth in 2025, driven by generative AI, which is expected to significantly boost the company's AI servers and high-speed networking equipment [1][3]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth in cloud computing revenues, which increased by over 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with revenues from cloud service providers (CSPs) growing by over 60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is well-positioned to navigate geopolitical tensions due to its global production capabilities and strong management across various operational aspects [3]. Summary by Sections AI Servers Outlook - Management is positive about the AI servers and networking business, expecting continued growth throughout the year. The company has competitive strengths in R&D, automated production, and a comprehensive product offering [3]. - The cloud computing segment's revenue growth is attributed to both AI servers and general servers, with brand customers also showing a growth of over 30% year-on-year [3]. Global Production Sites - The company emphasizes its global production capabilities, which allow it to meet client needs amid geopolitical uncertainties. It has established production sites in the US, including Wisconsin, California, and Texas, capable of producing various AI server models [3]. - The focus on high-value products and automated production in the US enhances yield rates and production efficiency [3]. Switch Business Growth - Management is optimistic about the growth of the switch business, particularly high-speed switches, with revenue growth for 400G and 800G switches projected to be in triple digits for 2024 [4][7]. - The company's 800G switch is already in shipment, contributing to rising revenue, and it serves leading brand customers such as Cisco, Arista, and NVIDIA [4][7].

20 May 2025 | 4:44PM EDT 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Mutual Fundamentals Funds post strong performance despite low "active share" Mutual Fundamentals analyzes the quarter-end positioning of 541 large-cap active mutual funds with a combined $3.5 trillion in equity assets. 1. PERFORMANCE AND FLOWS: Mutual funds have continued their strong relative performance YTD, with 50% of large-cap funds outperforming their benchmarks versus the historical average of 37%. Inflows to large-cap mutual funds and ETFs hav ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that a 25% copper import tariff is the most likely outcome of the S232 investigation, with a market-implied probability of 47% by the end of 2025, presenting a compelling opportunity for the 'Copper Tariff Trade' of long Dec-25 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The Dec-25 COMEX-LME US-UK copper spread decreased from $1,708/t to $1,113/t between April 22 and May 20, indicating a reduced market-implied probability of a 25% US copper import tariff [4][6]. - The decline in the spread is attributed to the US making concessions on previously announced tariffs, which increases the perceived risk of concessions on potential copper tariffs [7][8]. - Rising US inventories have not materially impacted the COMEX-LME spread, as the decline is primarily due to greater uncertainty regarding future tariffs [11]. Summary by Sections Copper Tariff Investigation - There have been no official announcements from the Trump Administration regarding the copper S232 investigation since late February, leading to a lower probability of a US copper import tariff [7]. - If the US decides against imposing a copper import tariff, it is expected that the COMEX price would drop below the LME price due to high US inventories [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that US copper scrap exports have decreased year-to-date but have not ceased, and a blanket export ban is not anticipated [13][16]. - The UK securing concessions on steel and aluminum S232 tariffs is seen as a potential indicator that all tariffs, including copper, may be subject to negotiation [12]. Inventory and Pricing - The report highlights that the current high level of US copper inventories, the highest since 2012, is influencing market dynamics, particularly in relation to the COMEX-LME spread [8][11]. - The report emphasizes that tighter LME and wider COMEX timespreads account for the changes in the COMEX-LME spread, indicating that external factors are more impactful than US inventory levels [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bilibili Inc. (BILI) with a 12-month DCF-based target price of US$23.70 and HK$185.00, indicating an upside potential of 31.7% and 32.0% respectively [7][9]. Core Insights - Bilibili Inc. reported revenue of Rmb7.0 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24% and slightly beating consensus estimates [1][2]. - Non-GAAP EPADS was reported at Rmb0.85, which is a 20% increase year-over-year and a 38% beat against consensus estimates [1]. - The company experienced a 4.5% increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) and a 7.8% increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU), reaching 107 million and 368 million respectively, likely aided by the Spring Festival Gala [2]. - Mobile games revenue surged by 76% year-over-year, while advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, both aligning with expectations [2]. - The adjusted operating profit was Rmb342 million, exceeding the estimate of Rmb213 million, primarily due to disciplined sales and marketing spending [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Results - Revenue: Rmb7.0 billion (+24% YoY) [1] - Non-GAAP EPADS: Rmb0.85 (+20% YoY) [1] - DAU: 107 million (+4.5% YoY) [2] - MAU: 368 million (+7.8% YoY) [2] - Mobile Games Revenue: +76% YoY [2] - Advertising Revenue: +20% YoY [2] - Adjusted Operating Profit: Rmb342 million (+61% YoY) [2] Future Outlook - Key focus areas include advertising outlook for 2Q/FY25, game pipeline for the remainder of 2025, margin expansion potential, and shareholder return plans for 2025E [2].