Investment Rating - The investment rating for OBIC is Neutral, maintained due to a lack of valuation appeal despite stable growth prospects in ERP demand [1][9][30]. Core Insights - OBIC's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 have been raised to ¥87.0 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large ERP projects [1][2][19]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth, with the system support (SS) business projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [1][23]. - The target price has been increased to ¥5,230 from ¥4,770, based on a DCF model that reflects the company's high earnings stability [1][32]. Financial Estimates - Revenue forecasts for FY3/26 are set at ¥132.5 billion, with operating profits expected to reach ¥87.0 billion, slightly above the company's guidance of ¥86.2 billion [2][4]. - The operating margin is anticipated to improve, driven by growth in the high-margin SS business and greater efficiency in SG&A expenses [13][31]. - The company has a market capitalization of ¥2.3 trillion and an enterprise value of ¥2.1 trillion [4]. Business Segments - The system integration (SI) business is expected to see stable growth, with sales and operating profits rising by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [19][22]. - The SS business, which includes ERP maintenance, is projected to drive overall earnings, with sales and operating profits increasing by 13% and 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [23][24]. - The shift to cloud services is significant, with the proportion of customers using cloud services expected to rise to 91% by the end of FY3/26 [23][25]. Market Position - OBIC is focusing on large corporate clients, competing with major players like Oracle and SAP, and is gradually increasing its market share [22][31]. - The company has nearly 10 large projects underway, each with development costs exceeding ¥500 million, indicating high utilization rates [22][31]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 30% of OBIC's sales, with strong demand for ERP upgrades due to a high proportion of legacy systems [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a target price raised to HK$65 from HK$62, indicating a 26% upside potential [1][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with revenue growing by 47% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb111 billion, and adjusted net profit increasing by 65% yoy to Rmb10.7 billion [1]. - Key growth drivers included AIoT and electric vehicles (EV), with AIoT revenue growing by 59% yoy, significantly outperforming the market [2][34]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for AIoT reached a record high of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points yoy, making it the largest gross profit contributor for Xiaomi [3][58]. Financial Performance - Revenue from smart EVs showed a gross profit margin expansion to 23.2%, attributed to strong pricing power and lower bill of materials (BOM) costs [4]. - Smartphone revenue grew by 9% yoy to Rmb50.6 billion, with a market share increase in China to 19%, marking Xiaomi's first position in the market after 10 years [28]. - Internet services revenue increased by 13% yoy to Rmb9.1 billion, driven by a 20% growth in advertising revenue [67]. Segment Analysis - AIoT and lifestyle products contributed significantly to revenue, with smart large home appliances seeing a revenue growth of 114% yoy [42]. - Tablet shipments grew by 56% yoy, with Xiaomi achieving the No.3 market share globally and in China [47]. - Wearables revenue increased by 56.5% yoy, with Xiaomi maintaining a leading position in the global market [58]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in AIoT, projecting a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for overseas revenue from 2024 to 2027 [61]. - Upcoming events to watch include the 6.18 shopping festival and a new product release event, which are expected to drive further consumer interest and sales [19].

Investment Ratings - Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $148 [27] - Fox Corp. (FOXA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $61 [29] - Comcast Corp. (CMCSA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $40 [30] - Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD): Neutral-rated with a 12-month price target of $10.50 [32] - Paramount Global (PARA): Not Rated [34] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in traditional TV viewership, with prime time commercial ratings for broadcast (excluding sports) down 16% year-over-year in 2Q25-to-date [2] - Streaming viewership has reached an all-time high of 44.3%, with YouTube achieving a record share of 12.4% [6][10] - Cable viewership has also seen a slight increase, driven by sports and news programming, with cable share rising to 24.5% [8][9] Summary by Sections TV Viewership Trends - Streaming's share of total TV viewership increased by 0.5 percentage points month-over-month to 44.3% in April 2025 [6][10] - Broadcast share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.8%, driven by events like the Men's NCAA Basketball Championship [7][9] - Cable share rose by 0.5 percentage points to 24.5%, supported by strong sports viewership [8][9] Company Performance - In 2Q25-to-date, total day ratings for major networks declined significantly: DIS (-28%), PARA (-30%), WBD (-27%), CMCSA (-32%), while FOX saw an increase of 28% [3][4] - FOX's growth was primarily driven by a 46% increase in viewership at Fox News Channel [3][25] - The report indicates that linear TV has lost approximately 6 percentage points to streaming and other platforms year-over-year as of April 2025 [14] Valuation and Price Targets - The valuation methodologies for the companies include various EBITDA multiples, with DIS at 11X for Parks and Experiences, and FOX at 7.0X for NTM+1Y EBITDA [27][29][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-channel and multi-platform distribution strategies for media companies to sustain growth in streaming engagement [6]

Raise TP on steady growth centered on Japan and defensive earnings, but limited valuation appeal; stay Neutral | 4307.T | | --- | | 12m Price Target: ¥5,800 | | Price: ¥5,891 | | Downside: 1.5% | We update our earnings estimates based on Nomura Research Institute's (NRI) FY3/25 and 4Q (January-March) results (see our report on 4Q results). We lower our FY3/26 and FY3/27 operating profit estimates by 1% each, mainly on industrial IT solutions, reflecting the impact of a possible deterioration in business sen ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on US companies, particularly those exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers, suggesting a moderate negative impact from tariffs [2][3][51]. Core Insights - The White House has implemented significant tariff increases, raising the US effective tariff rate by 9 percentage points, which is six times larger than during the 2018-2019 trade war [5][6]. - Equity returns for US companies exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers initially underperformed by 4 percentage points around tariff escalation announcements, with a net effect of -1.3 percentage points after some recovery during de-escalation announcements [2][17]. - Companies with exposure to other international suppliers and customers showed only modest underperformance compared to domestically focused companies across all tariff announcement days [3][21]. - Companies expected to benefit from tariffs did not show significant outperformance during tariff escalations or de-escalations, indicating skepticism about the competitive advantages provided by tariffs [3][26]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on US Companies - The report analyzes how the equity market has priced the impact of tariffs on US companies, focusing on exposures to China and other international markets [11][12]. - Companies exposed to Chinese suppliers or customers had already underperformed by 3.7 percentage points before the first tariff announcement, suggesting some impact was priced in advance [20][23]. Industry-Level Analysis - Industries in the top quartile of exposure to tariff-driven input cost increases underperformed those in the bottom quartile by 8 percentage points on tariff escalation announcement days [36]. - The overall net underperformance for these industries was -3 percentage points, indicating a moderate negative impact from trade tensions [36]. Market Reactions - The equity market has not sold off significantly in aggregate, reflecting investor optimism that the worst tariff shocks are behind [8][50]. - The report suggests that while the market has priced in some negative effects of tariffs, the anticipated benefits for companies protected by tariffs remain limited and statistically insignificant [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a 12-month price target of $78.00, indicating an upside potential of 25.1% from the current price of $62.33 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights Trip.com Group's strategic path to becoming the leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) in Asia within the next 3-5 years, emphasizing a full-funnel marketing strategy to enhance value for both suppliers and customers [1][19]. - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue contribution to approximately 50% in the long run, up from 35% currently, indicating significant growth potential outside of China [1][18]. - Management has established a $100 million Tourism Innovation Fund to support the development of the tourism industry, showcasing a commitment to innovation and growth [1][20]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,294 million in 2024 to RMB 77,228.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.7% [6][16]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 17,070 million in 2024 to RMB 23,500 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 30% [6][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 26.20 in 2024 to RMB 33.53 in 2027, indicating a strong profitability outlook [6][16]. Market Strategy - Trip.com Group is focusing on a full-funnel marketing strategy to improve sales conversion rates and enhance partner sales, with significant marketing campaigns planned throughout the year [1][19]. - The company is investing in technology and customer service, aiming to differentiate itself through high service quality and innovative solutions, such as AI-enhanced travel assistants [1][20]. - Management is prioritizing global expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, through active marketing investments and localized product development [1][19]. Competitive Position - The report notes that Trip.com has achieved positive net profit in markets like Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore, capturing a significant market share in these regions [1][19]. - The competitive landscape is described as benign, allowing Trip.com to attract customers with competitive pricing strategies [1][19]. - The company aims to achieve comparable profit levels to global peers like Booking.com through economies of scale and improved operational efficiency [1][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Salesforce Inc. is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $340, indicating an upside potential of 22.7% from the current price of $277.19 [8][6]. Core Insights - Salesforce reported a Subscription Revenue growth of 8.3% YoY, exceeding the FactSet Consensus of 7.4%. The Operating Margin (OpM) was 32.3%, slightly below the consensus of 32.5% [1]. - The company raised its FY26 Total Revenue guidance to 8.6% YoY in USD and 8% in constant currency (CC), compared to previous guidance of 7.4% and 7.8% [1]. - Key growth drivers include a strong performance in the Data Cloud and AI segment, which reached $1 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), growing 120% YoY [1]. - The company closed 8,000 Agentforce deals, including 4,000 paid deals, indicating robust demand [1]. - The Platform and Other segment, which includes Data Cloud and Slack, showed accelerating momentum with a 14% YoY growth [1]. - Current Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) grew by 12.1% YoY, with the highest net new dollars added since F1Q23 [1]. - EMEA region showed stabilization with a 9% YoY growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Subscription Revenue for F1Q26 was $9,255 million, with a YoY growth of 8.3% [9]. - Non-GAAP Operating Income was reported at $3,179 million, with an Operating Margin of 32.6% [9]. - Free Cash Flow Margin reached 64.0%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [9]. Guidance and Expectations - For F2Q26, Salesforce expects Revenue growth of 8.7% in USD and 7.5% in CC, above the consensus of 7.4% [1]. - The company anticipates a Subscription Revenue growth of 9.5% in both USD and CC for FY26, up from previous estimates [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of understanding the Create-and-Close business performance, which reflects the health of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [2]. - The report also emphasizes the need to assess the broader spending environment and demand backdrop, particularly in relation to Data Cloud and Agentforce deals [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The growth signal from US soft data has improved, indicating a better trade policy outlook [2][4] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for the US shows a value of +1.6% for May, reflecting a positive trend in economic activity [14][50] - The global CAI has ticked up to +2.3% in May, suggesting a recovery in economic conditions [14][50] - Emerging markets, particularly India, show strong growth signals with a CAI of +7.6% in April [14][50] Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The report highlights improvements in soft data indicators, particularly in the US, which are expected to positively influence economic growth [2][4] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased, primarily due to short-term interest rates, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][28] Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The CAI for various regions shows positive growth signals, with the US at +1.6% and global CAI at +2.3% for May [14][50] - Developed markets show a CAI of +1.0%, while emerging markets are significantly higher at +4.1% [14][50] GDP Forecasts - The report indicates a change in GDP forecasts for 2025, with notable increases for India and the US, reflecting stronger economic performance [12][97] - The global GDP forecast has been adjusted, with a focus on emerging markets showing resilience and growth potential [12][97] Inflation and Wage Trends - Wage trackers indicate underlying wage growth across G10 economies, which may influence inflation dynamics [22][69] - The report discusses trimmed core inflation measures, which provide insights into underlying price pressures in the economy [62][94]

Investment Rating - The report recommends positive optimal allocations to both gold and enhanced oil futures in long-run portfolios as strategic hedges, as they have historically helped to reduce portfolio risk [4][60]. Core Insights - The report concludes that positive long-run allocations to gold and enhanced oil futures are optimal for investors seeking to minimize risk or tail losses for a given return [2][10]. - Gold serves as a hedge against losses in central bank and fiscal credibility, while oil protects against negative supply shocks [2][10]. - The report suggests a higher-than-usual allocation to gold and a lower-than-usual allocation to oil in long-term portfolios [2][10]. Summary by Sections Strategic Case for Gold and Oil - Investors are seeking protection for equity-bond portfolios due to recent failures of US bonds to protect against equity downside and rising US borrowing costs [2][7]. - Historical data indicates that during any 12-month period when real returns for both stocks and bonds were negative, either oil or gold has provided positive real returns [9][14]. Recommendations for Long-Term Portfolios - The report recommends overweighting gold due to high risks to US institutional credibility and sustained central bank demand [44][54]. - It advises underweighting oil because of high spare capacity and reduced risk of shortages in 2025-2026, while still maintaining a positive allocation to oil for potential tail risks [54][59]. Tactical vs. Strategic Positioning - For tactical positioning over shorter horizons (0-2 years), the report recommends going long on gold and using oil puts or put spreads to hedge against recession risks [59][60]. - For strategic hedging over long horizons (5+ years), it emphasizes the importance of gold to protect against shocks to US institutional credibility and suggests a balanced approach to oil [59][60].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$172, indicating an upside potential of 30.9% from the current price of HK$131.40 [13]. Core Insights - Meituan is focused on defending its leadership in the food delivery market while expanding its Instashopping and Keeta initiatives internationally. The company anticipates a stabilization in the competitive landscape as subsidy levels rationalize over time [7][11]. - The report forecasts a 9% growth in order volume for Q2 2025 and an 8% growth for FY 2025, driven by industry-wide subsidies, although it expects a significant decline in food delivery EBIT due to increased user subsidies [7]. - Instashopping is projected to achieve a 27% growth in order volume for Q2 2025, with a long-term outlook of becoming a key driver for on-demand growth and local commerce profits [7]. - Keeta's expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Brazil contingent on infrastructure development. The report anticipates losses for Keeta but improving unit economics [7][11]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Market - Meituan aims to maintain its GTV market share leadership by focusing on core user retention and diverse meal offerings. The company expects a 33% decline in food delivery EBIT for 2025 due to increased subsidies [7]. - The average daily order volume for food delivery is projected to grow from 70 million in 2024 to 77 million in 2025, with a slight decline in average order value [10]. Instashopping Growth - Instashopping is expected to see strong growth, with a projected GTV of Rmb 344 billion by 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase. The average daily order volume is anticipated to rise to 12.1 million [10]. - The report highlights that Instashopping's profitability is improving, with a small operating loss expected in Q2 2025 due to investments in marketing for shopping festivals [7]. Keeta Expansion - Keeta is experiencing strong growth in Saudi Arabia, with future expansion into Brazil dependent on infrastructure readiness. The report forecasts a loss of Rmb 10.4 billion for FY 2025 primarily due to Keeta's increased losses [7][11]. Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 337.6 billion in 2024 to Rmb 382.5 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin expected to stabilize around 38.4% [10]. - The report estimates adjusted EBIT for 2025 to be Rmb 30.5 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year due to increased investments and subsidies [10].