Economic Overview - The economic characteristics have shown new changes since September 2024, indicating a short-term turning point after August's economic bottom[1] - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.6%, aligning with expectations, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased by 0.56% year-on-year in Q3, marking six consecutive quarters of negative growth[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Internal demand is recovering, with infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate sales showing varying degrees of year-on-year growth[1] - The cumulative year-on-year contribution of net exports to GDP reached 1.14 percentage points in the first three quarters, indicating reliance on external demand[1] Sector Performance - The service sector's GDP growth rate rebounded, with financial and real estate sectors showing improvement, while industrial production remained stable[1] - In September, industrial production growth increased from 4.5% in August to 5.4%, while service production growth rose from 4.6% to 5.1%[19] Policy Impact - Following the "9·24" policy, there has been an increase in real estate and financial market activity, with transaction volumes rising[1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to advance a 100 billion yuan central budget investment plan for 2025, which could directly boost Q4 nominal GDP growth by 0.6%[14] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 2.3%[30] - The household appliance sector saw a significant increase in sales, with a 4.4% year-on-year growth attributed to the "trade-in" policy[30]

Policy Measures - The real estate market is being stabilized through a "combination punch" consisting of "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" [1] - Four cancellations include granting cities the autonomy to adjust or eliminate various home purchase restrictions [1] - Four reductions involve lowering housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to 15%, and reducing existing loan rates and tax burdens for home exchanges [1] Housing Improvement Initiatives - The government plans to implement 1 million new urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which could account for 10.5% of new construction area in 2023 if each unit is 100 square meters [1][10] - The "white list" for credit projects in real estate will be expanded to 4 trillion yuan, aiming to include all qualified real estate projects [1][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to enter a balanced phase, with future trends dependent on the pace and strength of incremental policies [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to stabilize around the gap created on September 27, with potential support from significant new capital inflows [2][25] - The market's ability to break previous highs is limited due to the predominance of retail investors, with institutional funds expected to adopt a more cautious trading style [2][25] Economic Indicators - As of mid-October, the average daily new home sales in 30 major cities showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -32.4% in September to -4.5% [15] - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter was reported at 4.60%, slightly above market expectations, indicating a gradual recovery in the real economy [25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommend" rating to Chuanyi Co Ltd (603100 SH) for the first time [1] Core Views - Chuanyi Co Ltd is a leading domestic intelligent instrumentation company, representing the trend of domestic substitution and self-reliance in China's manufacturing sector [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the "deepening" phase of domestic substitution, which focuses on core components and supply chain security [1] - Chuanyi Co Ltd is a state-owned high-tech enterprise with strong fundamentals, multiple catalysts, and low valuation, making it a long-term investment opportunity [1] Company Overview - Chuanyi Co Ltd is the largest domestic industrial automation instrumentation and control device company, with the most comprehensive product portfolio and system integration capabilities [1] - The company's main revenue source is automation instrumentation, contributing 65 98 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 89 0% of total revenue [1] - The company's products include high-precision intelligent pressure transmitters, electric actuators, intelligent control valves, and intelligent flow instruments, with continuous product upgrades and expanding product lines [1] Industry Overview - The industrial automation instrumentation and control device industry is the largest sub-sector of the instrumentation industry, with a domestic market size of 41 4 billion yuan, dominated by foreign brands [1] - The industry has significant growth potential, as evidenced by the success of global giants like Emerson, Honeywell, Siemens, and E+H [1] - The domestic substitution trend, driven by government policies and market demand, is expected to accelerate the development of the industry [1] Competitive Advantages - Chuanyi Co Ltd has a comprehensive product portfolio, covering almost all major categories of automation instrumentation, enabling it to provide industry-wide solutions [1] - The company has accumulated decades of R&D experience and manufacturing expertise, with a strong focus on technological innovation and market-driven R&D mechanisms [1] - The company has a deep industry moat due to its self-sufficient supply chain and core production tools, making it difficult for competitors to replicate [1] Catalysts - State-owned enterprise reform and the company's strong backing from the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission provide a competitive edge [2] - Long-term capital expenditure growth in downstream process automation industries, such as petrochemicals, will support the company's growth [2] - The company is a key player in the domestic substitution of industrial instrumentation, with significant strategic importance for national economic security [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue of 8 039 billion yuan, 8 890 billion yuan, and 9 979 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8 48%, 10 58%, and 12 26% [3] - Net profit is expected to reach 803 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 1 052 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 7 96%, 14 39%, and 14 54% [3] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 12 0X, 10 5X, and 9 2X for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating undervaluation compared to industry peers [3]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The government plans to increase the annual issuance of government bonds by approximately CNY 2 trillion for three consecutive years[1] - A one-time debt relief scale is expected to exceed CNY 5 trillion, aimed at alleviating local government debt pressures[1] - The deficit rate for 2025 may be raised to around 4%[1] Group 2: Economic Support and Stability - The fiscal measures include issuing special government bonds to support state-owned banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, enhancing their risk resistance and lending capacity[1] - The government will utilize local government special bonds and tax policies to stabilize the real estate market[1] - There will be increased support for key groups to ensure basic living standards[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - Public fiscal revenue fell by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, indicating a potential shortfall of CNY 130 billion against budget targets[1] - Government fund revenue dropped by 21.1% year-on-year in the same period, suggesting a shortfall of approximately CNY 150 billion[1] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio of major banks was reported at 10.74%, with some banks like Postal Savings Bank being close to regulatory limits[1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The policy environment is expected to support the stock market, with a focus on cyclical sectors and core technology growth stocks[1] - The upcoming economic data releases and quarterly reports are anticipated to influence market sentiment and risk appetite[1]

Policy Insights - Recent macroeconomic policies are more intensive and coordinated compared to previous years, indicating a significant shift towards proactive measures[2] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The central bank has also reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, a decrease of 20 basis points[12] Economic Outlook - If a comprehensive and substantial easing policy is implemented, the economic potential for 2025 remains promising[2] - The nominal GDP growth target is currently 5%, while the actual growth rate is lagging behind by 5 percentage points, necessitating an increase in fiscal spending of over CNY 6 trillion to meet targets[29] Market Trends - The stock market has seen a rapid rebound, driven by liquidity and incremental capital, with sectors like real estate, building materials, and TMT benefiting from this trend[2] - Following the "9·24" policy announcement, housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 31% week-on-week, contrasting with a -10.5% decline in the same period last year[23] Risk Factors - The effectiveness of existing policies remains to be observed, and new policies may fall short of expectations, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty[2] - The external environment presents significant uncertainties, including potential inflation risks in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices[32]

Economic Outlook - The September Politburo meeting indicates a rapid change in economic conditions, highlighting urgent economic issues and the need for timely policy responses[1] - The meeting acknowledged the economic performance in 2024 but noted a decline in growth momentum, with GDP growth in Q3 expected to be around 4.6%[1][6] - Industrial production growth fell to 4.5% year-on-year in August, while retail sales growth dropped to 2.1%, reflecting weak domestic demand[6] Macro Policy - The meeting emphasized increasing counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy measures, including necessary fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds[10] - Public fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while government fund revenue fell by 21.1%[10] - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate, indicating a strong monetary easing stance[10][16] Real Estate Market - The Politburo meeting explicitly called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides[19] - Supply-side measures include controlling new housing construction and increasing funding for "white list" projects to prevent unfinished buildings[19] - Demand-side measures involve adjusting housing purchase restrictions and lowering existing mortgage rates, with a 50 basis point reduction already announced[22] Capital Market - The meeting stressed the need to boost the capital market, with specific measures to attract long-term funds and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies[25] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio below the 10-year median, indicating a need for market stabilization[25][28] - Policies to protect small investors and promote public fund reforms are also being considered to enhance market confidence[25] Economic Entities - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting enterprises, particularly private ones, to navigate challenges and improve the business environment[30] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in the first eight months of 2024, marking the first negative growth this year[30] - Employment remains a critical focus, with the urban unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in August, necessitating targeted support for vulnerable groups[30][33]

Policy Measures - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%[1] - Existing mortgage rates will be lowered by about 0.5 percentage points, saving households approximately 150 billion yuan annually[1] Real Estate Policies - The minimum down payment for first and second homes will be unified to 15%[1] - The central bank's support for affordable housing refinancing will increase from 60% to 100%[1] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will be extended until the end of 2026[1] Monetary Policy Tools - Two new monetary policy tools will be created to support stock market stability, including a 500 billion yuan swap facility for financial institutions[1] - A special re-loan program for stock buybacks will be initiated with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan[1] Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to see gains similar to the average spring rally since 2016, contingent on fiscal policy support[1] - If fiscal policies are robust, the market may experience a long-term reversal opportunity; otherwise, gains may be limited[1] Risk Factors - The effectiveness of policies may be weaker than expected, and market confidence may take time to recover[1] - The real estate market remains sluggish, which could hinder overall economic recovery[1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tiantan Biological Products (600161 SH) as of September 20 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Tiantan Biological has transformed into a pure blood products company after restructuring in 2017, focusing on plasma-derived products [1] - The company has become the industry leader with 102 plasma collection stations (80 operational, 22 under construction) and 2415 tons of plasma collected in 2023 [1] - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product matrix to 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products by covering all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - The company is building three major plasma processing bases (Yong'an, Kunming, Lanzhou) with total planned capacity of 3600 tons/year to break through production bottlenecks [2][46] Business Restructuring - Tiantan Biological completed a two-step restructuring in 2017-2018 to focus on blood products [15] - Step 1: Transferred vaccine business to parent company and acquired Guizhou Zhongtai [16] - Step 2: Acquired three major blood product assets (Shanghai, Wuhan, Lanzhou) through Chengdu Rongsheng [16] - The restructuring achieved synergies in plasma station management, product complementarity, and R&D coordination [19][20] - The company exceeded its three-year performance commitment after restructuring [26] Plasma Collection Expansion - Tiantan Biological has expanded plasma collection through multiple channels [1] - Increased stake in Chengdu Rongsheng to 74 01% [27] - Obtained 43 new plasma station approvals in 2021-2022 [1] - Acquired Xi'an Huitian (63 69% stake) and Zhongyuan Ruide (100% stake) to expand in Shaanxi and Hubei [36][37] - The company's plasma collection increased from 1400 tons in 2017 to 2415 tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 9 6% [34] - New plasma stations typically take 3-4 years to reach full capacity, with 20 new stations starting operation in 2023 [1] Product Development - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product portfolio to cover all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products [2] - Added recombinant coagulation factor VIII and high-purity IVIG (10%) to its product line [44] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin reached record highs in 2023 at 50 8% and 29 1% respectively [45] - Plasma utilization rate has improved with the expansion of product lines [39] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 16 billion yuan in 2024 to 8 19 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15 2% [3][55] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 90 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 0% [3][55] - Plasma collection is forecasted to reach 2669 tons in 2024, 3079 tons in 2025, and 3418 tons in 2026 [54] Valuation - As of September 20 2024, Tiantan Biological's PE (TTM) is 32 1x, 13 4% higher than the industry average [6][7] - The company's ton-plasma market value is 20 60 million yuan, based on 2024E equity plasma volume of 1975 tons [7] - Tiantan Biological's ton-plasma output value reached 2 145 million yuan in 2023, still below the industry average of 2 408 million yuan [55]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Tian Tan Biological, as it is positioned as a leading player in the blood products industry and is in a phase of rapid plasma volume growth [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has undergone significant restructuring to focus solely on blood products, divesting its vaccine business and consolidating blood product assets under its subsidiary, Chengdu Rongsheng, which has led to enhanced operational efficiency and market positioning [1][19]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities through acquisitions and new plasma stations, achieving a total of 102 plasma collection stations, with a significant increase in plasma collection volume [2][27]. - The product matrix has been strengthened, with the company achieving a record high in gross and net profit margins in 2023, supported by the completion of its coagulation product line [2][3]. Summary by Sections Focus: Restructuring of Vaccine and Blood Product Assets - The company initiated a two-step internal restructuring to eliminate competition with its controlling shareholder, transferring its vaccine business and acquiring blood product assets [15][16]. - The integration of blood product operations has resulted in a synergistic effect, enhancing production capacity and resource utilization [19][20]. - The company has exceeded its three-year performance commitments post-restructuring, demonstrating strong operational performance [26]. Expansion: Multi-Dimensional Growth of Plasma Sources - The company has increased its stake in Chengdu Rongsheng, raising its ownership to 74.01%, thereby enhancing its equity plasma share [27]. - It has successfully obtained approvals for new plasma stations, significantly increasing its plasma collection capacity [30][32]. - The average plasma collection per station has improved, with ongoing efforts to optimize existing stations [2][30]. Strengthening: Expanding Product Matrix - The company has enriched its product offerings, achieving a total of 9 blood product varieties in 2023, with a focus on coagulation products [2][3]. - Operational efficiency has improved, leading to record gross and net profit margins in 2023 [2][3]. - New production bases are being established to alleviate capacity constraints, with significant progress in the construction of key facilities [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 61.6 billion, 71.1 billion, and 81.9 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 13.9 billion, 16.4 billion, and 19.0 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [3][7]. - The company's current market valuation is approximately 406.9 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 29.3 for 2024, indicating a favorable investment outlook [6][7].

2024 年 09 月 22 日 宏观经济 美联储降息，人民币汇率升值 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.16—2024.09.22） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证综指、沪深 300 与创业板指分别收涨 1.2%、1.3%与 0.1%。 债券市场整体持平，国债收益率表现分化，1 年、5 年期国债收益率继续回 升 8 与 0.5bp，10 年期国债收益率收跌 3.2bp。海外道琼斯、纳斯达克与标普 500 指数分别收涨 1.1%、2.0%与 1.2%。 A 股配臵策略：继续关注补贴政策下高景气的家电板块机会。家电方面， 以旧换新政策对家电拉力弹性已经凸显，Q3 家电业绩确定性较强，交易时 间有望延续至 10 月三季报阶段。基本金属在美联储降息、交易所库存下降 催化下上周表现较强，但库存绝对水平仍在近年高位，降息兑现后期货价格 需要更多宏观与行业数据来判断方向，但从三季报来看基本金属、贵金属价 格相对 2023 年同期涨幅可观，三季报确定性较高，股价表现仍有望相对偏 强。创新药方面，9 月 20 日盘后美"生物安全法案"未被纳入参议院 2025 财年国防授权法案，本周 CXO 板块有望迎来短期反弹机会 ...