Policy Insights - Recent macroeconomic policies are more intensive and coordinated compared to previous years, indicating a significant shift towards proactive measures[2] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The central bank has also reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, a decrease of 20 basis points[12] Economic Outlook - If a comprehensive and substantial easing policy is implemented, the economic potential for 2025 remains promising[2] - The nominal GDP growth target is currently 5%, while the actual growth rate is lagging behind by 5 percentage points, necessitating an increase in fiscal spending of over CNY 6 trillion to meet targets[29] Market Trends - The stock market has seen a rapid rebound, driven by liquidity and incremental capital, with sectors like real estate, building materials, and TMT benefiting from this trend[2] - Following the "9·24" policy announcement, housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 31% week-on-week, contrasting with a -10.5% decline in the same period last year[23] Risk Factors - The effectiveness of existing policies remains to be observed, and new policies may fall short of expectations, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty[2] - The external environment presents significant uncertainties, including potential inflation risks in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices[32]

2024 年 09 月 26 日 宏观经济 高度重视经济问题，政策迎来拐点时刻 ——2024 年 9 月中央政治局会议精神学习体会 宏观点评 形势判断：正视困难，增强紧迫感。9 月政治局会议研究经济问题，说 明经济形势变化很快，经济问题比较急迫，也体现了领导人对经济困难的高 度重视，政策迎来拐点时刻。会议直面问题，指出"当前经济运行出现一些 新的情况和问题。要全面客观冷静看待当前经济形势，正视困难、坚定信心， 切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感"，提出"要抓住重点、主动作为， 有效落实存量政策，加力推出增量政策，进一步提高政策措施的针对性、有 效性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务"。本次政治局会议之后，预计 还会有财政等方面的增量政策出台。目前来看，这轮政策的目的是完成全年 经济的目标、稳定市场、提振经济主体信心，是中等规模的政策拐点。是否 是决定未来几年经济形势的政策拐点，还要看后续的财政政策力度，以及各 项改革的落地情况。 宏观政策：加大逆周期调节力度。会议强调"要加大财政货币政策逆周 期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出，切实做好基层'三保'工作。要发行使 用好超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债，更好发挥政府 ...

2024 年 09 月 25 日 宏观经济 央行推出重磅政策，经济市场迎来反转时刻？ ——2024 年 9 月 24 日国新办新闻发布会学习体会 宏观点评 政策力度较大，经济及市场有望改善。发布会上，三部门领导宣布了多 项重要政策，力度超预期的主要是：一是将下调存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点； 7 天期逆回购操作利率下调 0.2 个百分点。二是引导银行降低存量房贷利率 约 0.5%个百分点，统一房贷最低首付比例至 15%。三是创设新的货币政策 工具支持股票市场稳定发展。未来经济及市场有望改善，至于经济改善的力 度及持续性，需要关注是否有大规模的财政刺激政策出台。如果有较强的财 政政策配合，则经济有望迎来趋势性拐点。否则，只是央行单方面行动，经 济修复的力度也会有限。 货币政策力度超预期，未来仍有空间。此次降准时机符合预期，但是降 准 0.5 个百分点，超出市场预期。央行领导强调，年内还将视市场流动性的 状况，可能择机进一步下调存款准备金率 0.25-0.5 个百分点。同时，央行还 宣布，将降低政策利率，即 7 天期逆回购操作利率下调 0.2 个百分点，从目 前的 1.7%调降至 1.5%。此次降息以及降息幅度 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tiantan Biological Products (600161 SH) as of September 20 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Tiantan Biological has transformed into a pure blood products company after restructuring in 2017, focusing on plasma-derived products [1] - The company has become the industry leader with 102 plasma collection stations (80 operational, 22 under construction) and 2415 tons of plasma collected in 2023 [1] - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product matrix to 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products by covering all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - The company is building three major plasma processing bases (Yong'an, Kunming, Lanzhou) with total planned capacity of 3600 tons/year to break through production bottlenecks [2][46] Business Restructuring - Tiantan Biological completed a two-step restructuring in 2017-2018 to focus on blood products [15] - Step 1: Transferred vaccine business to parent company and acquired Guizhou Zhongtai [16] - Step 2: Acquired three major blood product assets (Shanghai, Wuhan, Lanzhou) through Chengdu Rongsheng [16] - The restructuring achieved synergies in plasma station management, product complementarity, and R&D coordination [19][20] - The company exceeded its three-year performance commitment after restructuring [26] Plasma Collection Expansion - Tiantan Biological has expanded plasma collection through multiple channels [1] - Increased stake in Chengdu Rongsheng to 74 01% [27] - Obtained 43 new plasma station approvals in 2021-2022 [1] - Acquired Xi'an Huitian (63 69% stake) and Zhongyuan Ruide (100% stake) to expand in Shaanxi and Hubei [36][37] - The company's plasma collection increased from 1400 tons in 2017 to 2415 tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 9 6% [34] - New plasma stations typically take 3-4 years to reach full capacity, with 20 new stations starting operation in 2023 [1] Product Development - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product portfolio to cover all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products [2] - Added recombinant coagulation factor VIII and high-purity IVIG (10%) to its product line [44] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin reached record highs in 2023 at 50 8% and 29 1% respectively [45] - Plasma utilization rate has improved with the expansion of product lines [39] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 16 billion yuan in 2024 to 8 19 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15 2% [3][55] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 90 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 0% [3][55] - Plasma collection is forecasted to reach 2669 tons in 2024, 3079 tons in 2025, and 3418 tons in 2026 [54] Valuation - As of September 20 2024, Tiantan Biological's PE (TTM) is 32 1x, 13 4% higher than the industry average [6][7] - The company's ton-plasma market value is 20 60 million yuan, based on 2024E equity plasma volume of 1975 tons [7] - Tiantan Biological's ton-plasma output value reached 2 145 million yuan in 2023, still below the industry average of 2 408 million yuan [55]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Tian Tan Biological, as it is positioned as a leading player in the blood products industry and is in a phase of rapid plasma volume growth [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has undergone significant restructuring to focus solely on blood products, divesting its vaccine business and consolidating blood product assets under its subsidiary, Chengdu Rongsheng, which has led to enhanced operational efficiency and market positioning [1][19]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities through acquisitions and new plasma stations, achieving a total of 102 plasma collection stations, with a significant increase in plasma collection volume [2][27]. - The product matrix has been strengthened, with the company achieving a record high in gross and net profit margins in 2023, supported by the completion of its coagulation product line [2][3]. Summary by Sections Focus: Restructuring of Vaccine and Blood Product Assets - The company initiated a two-step internal restructuring to eliminate competition with its controlling shareholder, transferring its vaccine business and acquiring blood product assets [15][16]. - The integration of blood product operations has resulted in a synergistic effect, enhancing production capacity and resource utilization [19][20]. - The company has exceeded its three-year performance commitments post-restructuring, demonstrating strong operational performance [26]. Expansion: Multi-Dimensional Growth of Plasma Sources - The company has increased its stake in Chengdu Rongsheng, raising its ownership to 74.01%, thereby enhancing its equity plasma share [27]. - It has successfully obtained approvals for new plasma stations, significantly increasing its plasma collection capacity [30][32]. - The average plasma collection per station has improved, with ongoing efforts to optimize existing stations [2][30]. Strengthening: Expanding Product Matrix - The company has enriched its product offerings, achieving a total of 9 blood product varieties in 2023, with a focus on coagulation products [2][3]. - Operational efficiency has improved, leading to record gross and net profit margins in 2023 [2][3]. - New production bases are being established to alleviate capacity constraints, with significant progress in the construction of key facilities [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 61.6 billion, 71.1 billion, and 81.9 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 13.9 billion, 16.4 billion, and 19.0 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [3][7]. - The company's current market valuation is approximately 406.9 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 29.3 for 2024, indicating a favorable investment outlook [6][7].

2024 年 09 月 22 日 宏观经济 美联储降息，人民币汇率升值 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.16—2024.09.22） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证综指、沪深 300 与创业板指分别收涨 1.2%、1.3%与 0.1%。 债券市场整体持平，国债收益率表现分化，1 年、5 年期国债收益率继续回 升 8 与 0.5bp，10 年期国债收益率收跌 3.2bp。海外道琼斯、纳斯达克与标普 500 指数分别收涨 1.1%、2.0%与 1.2%。 A 股配臵策略：继续关注补贴政策下高景气的家电板块机会。家电方面， 以旧换新政策对家电拉力弹性已经凸显，Q3 家电业绩确定性较强，交易时 间有望延续至 10 月三季报阶段。基本金属在美联储降息、交易所库存下降 催化下上周表现较强，但库存绝对水平仍在近年高位，降息兑现后期货价格 需要更多宏观与行业数据来判断方向，但从三季报来看基本金属、贵金属价 格相对 2023 年同期涨幅可观，三季报确定性较高，股价表现仍有望相对偏 强。创新药方面，9 月 20 日盘后美"生物安全法案"未被纳入参议院 2025 财年国防授权法案，本周 CXO 板块有望迎来短期反弹机会 ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 宏观经济 美国就业数据喜忧参半，美联储降息将至 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.02—2024.09.08） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，A 股市场普遍收跌，上证综指、沪深 300、创业板指均收跌 2.7%， 科创 50 指数收跌 4.6%，领跌市场。债市走强，债券整体指数收涨 0.4%，1 年、5 年、10 年期国债收益率分别回落 5.8、7.3 与 3.3bp。海外市场再次收 跌，道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普 500 指数分别收跌 2.9%、5.8%与 4.2%，美债 收涨。 A 股配置策略：降低仓位，注重绝对防御。重心下移阶段绝对收益难度 增大，国债收益率持续回落阶段，依然看好红利板块防御价值。绝对收益关 注央企红利板块中估值中枢历史低位、中报业绩有支撑的保险、优质地方银 行、公路铁路标的。相对收益仍然看好政策支持的家电、汽车板块。奥维云 网数据显示白电 8 月内销销量同比增长 30%，率先实施以旧换新的省份销量 涨幅领先，补贴政策下或仍有持续性。中期仍看好电网、船舶、轨交板块， 需求相对刚性，业绩支撑性强。 宏观经济及政策动态 8 月，随着天气影响减弱，美国新增非 ...

2024 年 9 月 10 日 宏观经济 多因素共振下，中国出口与全球 PMI 背离 ——2024 年 8 月进出口数据点评 宏观点评 多因素共振下，出口增速回升。8 月份，出口同比增速 8.7%，高于 7 月 份的 7%；环比增速 2.7%，高于 7 月份的-2.3%。其一，8 月天气影响消退后， 港口集装箱吞吐量回升。其二，"抢出口"及圣诞季备货因素。中国和欧美 贸易摩擦风险较大，特别是面对美国大选的不确定性，美国进口商抓紧时间 备货。其三，海外经济处于扩张末端，消费仍存在韧性。8 月，美国 ISM 制 造业、非制造业 PMI 分别回升至 47.2%、51.5%。虽然超额储蓄不断消耗， 但美国居民良好的资产负债表状况，加上财富效应，以及薪资增速维持高位， 避免了美国消费大起大落，从而有利于平滑美国经济周期。8 月，中国家用 电器、家具出口分别累计同比增长 14.7%、9.9%，保持较高增速。其四，海 外资本开支后周期阶段，中国机电产品出口增速上升。中国机电产品、高新 技术产品出口累计同比增速均从 2024 年 4 月开始回升，8 月分别上升至 6.5%、4.9%。与此同时，全球半导体行业周期继续扩张，半导 ...

2024 年 9 月 9 日 宏观经济 蔬菜价格支撑 CPI，内需、油价拖累非食品价格 ——2024 年 8 月通胀数据点评 宏观点评 8 月，天气因素导致蔬菜价格上涨超出季节性，CPI 同比增速上升 0.1 个百分点至 0.6%。内需较弱，加之油价等大宗商品价格下滑，非食品通胀 普遍下跌，PPI 同比降幅扩大。 幅下滑，内需较弱，PPI 降幅扩大。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 蔬菜价格超季节性上涨，拉升 CPI 同比增速。8 月，食品、能源、核心 CPI 三因素对 CPI 的同比拉动率分别，增加约 0.5 个百分点，减少 0.53 个百 分点，减少约 0.07 个百分点，最终共同减少 0.1 个百分点。CPI 同比增速上 升主要是因为食品价格由上月同比持平转为上涨 2.8%，影响 CPI 同比上涨 约 0.5 个百分点。其中，受天气影响，鲜菜价格同比上涨 21.8%，涨幅比上 月扩大 18.5 个百分点。虽然 8 月份猪肉价格继续环比上升，但同比增速从 20.4%回调至 16.1%，不是 8 月 CPI 同比增速上升的主要原 ...

2024 年 09 月 16 日 宏观经济 扩内需政策效果有待进一步显现 ——2024 年 8 月经济数据点评 宏观点评 8 月，受高温多雨天气、内需较弱等方面影响，工业生产同比增速下降 至 4.5%，服务业生产指数同比增速降至 4.6%，这意味着月度 GDP 同比增速 可能在 4.5%附近，实现全年经济发展目标的压力增加。房地产市场高频数 据仍比较低迷，以旧换新对消费的拉动、政府债券发行对基建的拉动都还不 太明显，信用创造较弱，M1 增速快速下滑。加之，美国对中国商品加征新 一轮关税，中国出口存在较大不确定性，内需更加重要，扩内需政策需要加 大力度、加快落地、加快显现效果。 天气、内需拖累工业、服务业生产放缓。8 月份，工业增加值同比增长 4.5%，增速低于 7 月份的 5.1%，也低于市场预期值 4.7%。同比增速下滑， 部分原因是 2023 年 8 月工业生产环比增长 0.58%，形成高基数。不过，从 环比来看，8 月工业生产环比增速 0.32%，低于前 7 月均值 0.37%，剔除基 数效应后，工业生产扩张确实有所放缓。8 月出口交货值同比增速 6.4%，处 于较高水平，工业生产放缓除了受天气影响外， ...