Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in sales performance during the traditional peak season, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024 [1][2]. - The adjustments in sales assessment and focus on results-oriented strategies have positively impacted sales personnel motivation and market performance [2][3]. - The company has strengthened channel management and promotional efforts, leading to a better alignment with market demand and improved product structure [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.81%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, up 17.88% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 52.63%, an increase of 1.90 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 34.18%, up 0.40 percentage points [1]. - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 25.04 billion yuan, 26.90 billion yuan, and 28.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.48 billion yuan, 8.72 billion yuan, and 9.45 billion yuan [4][11]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company has increased promotional spending during the peak season, which has contributed to improved sales performance [2]. - Adjustments in the sales organization and assessment model have incentivized sales personnel, leading to better market penetration [2][3]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, enhancing market operations and product availability [2]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts continued revenue growth for the next three years, with expected growth rates of 2.2%, 7.5%, and 7.6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin and improve net profit margins in the coming years [4][11].

2024 年 11 月 11 日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 食品饮料/饮料制造 主动控量助力企业稳健发展 ——贵州茅台 2024 年三季报点评 公司点评 公司三季度营收增速 16.91%，大概率完成年初增长 15%目标： 2024 年三季度，公司实现总营收 1231.23 亿/+16.91%；归母净利润 608.28 亿 /+15.04%。其中 Q3 单季实现营收 396.71 亿/+15.56%；归母净利润 191.32 亿 /+13.23%。公司拟年中分红 300 亿元，占公司前三季度净利润的近一半。 公司前三季 Q1/Q2/Q3 单季营收增速分别为 20.38%/18.04%/16.95%，归母净 利润增速分别为 15.73%/16.10%/13.23%。今年白酒市场压力巨大，收入增速 放缓是大趋势，在行业压力加剧的条件下，行业集中化趋势愈加明显。 茅台发挥龙头企业经营优势，控量控费助力企业稳健发展： 公司三季度毛利率 91.53%，同比下降 0.18pct，毛利率保持稳健。两费方面， 销售费率 3.44%，同比上升 0.53pct；管理费率 4.80%，同比下降 0.74pct。净 利率 52. ...

2024 年 11 月 11 日 宏观经济 化债规模超预期，新增财政政策充满想象 ——2024 年 11 月人大常委会会议学习体会 宏观点评 11 月 8 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议闭幕。会议作出关于批 准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案》 的决议。会后，人大办公厅召开新闻发布会。 化债规模超预期，改善经济主体现金流。此次化债规模达到 12 万亿元， 超出我们以及市场预期。全国隐性债务余额将由 2023 年末的 14.3 万亿元降 至 2028 年末的 2.3 万亿元。具体而言，此次化债措施主要包括三方面内容： 一是新增 6 万亿专项债务限额置换隐性债务。议案建议新增 6 万亿元债务限 额，分三年安排，2024—2026 年每年 2 万亿元，支持地方用于置换各类隐性 债务。二是从 2024 年开始，连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排 8000 亿元，专门用于化债，累计可置换隐性债务 4 万亿元。三是承认 2 万亿 棚户区改造隐性债务。此次化债五年累计节约地方政府利息支出 6000 亿元 左右，还有助于地方畅通资金链条，政府可以腾出更多资金用于民生支出、 发展经济， ...

Group 1: Election Outcome and Policy Direction - The Republican Party won the presidency and the Senate in the 2024 U.S. elections, with a high probability of winning the House of Representatives as well[5] - Trump's domestic policy emphasizes a return to conservative principles, focusing on economic liberalism, reduced government intervention, and tax cuts[1] - Proposed tax cuts include lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and making certain provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent[30] Group 2: Economic Impact - Trump's policies are expected to increase U.S. economic growth, but higher tariffs and tightened immigration policies may offset some of these gains and lead to increased inflation[29] - If implemented, Trump's tax cuts could raise U.S. GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points, while inflation could rise by 1.6% to 2.8% to over 4%[34] - The proposed universal 10% tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods could increase inflation by 1% to 2%[32] Group 3: Trade and Immigration Policies - Trump's trade policies include a universal 10% tariff on nearly all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which may lead to trade tensions and retaliatory measures[22] - Tightened immigration policies could lead to labor shortages, particularly in low-skilled sectors, further exacerbating inflation pressures[34] - The estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is around 9 million, primarily in labor-intensive industries[33]

2024 年 11 月 03 日 宏观经济 市场波动较大，等待财政政策及美国大选落地 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.10.28—2024.11.03） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 A 股大势研判：美国大选临近、全国人大常委会会议召开在即，市场波 动幅度或加剧。美国大选结果 11 月 5 日公布，特朗普依然有望在大选中胜 出，市场对中美贸易摩擦加剧担忧仍在。人大常委会会议 11 月 4 日至 8 日 召开，财政政策加码程度即将落地。目前市场对增发政府债券用于化债及地 产收储已有预期，若政策应对潜在贸易摩擦更积极、落地超预期，则市场有 望企稳向上。 A 股配置策略：震荡期间关注有股票回购能力的央企高股息主线。两项 货币政策支持工具逐步落地，高股息央企股票有市值管理诉求，也有积极使 用货币工具回购股票套利能力，在市场波动阶段避险能力较强，上周五市场 回落阶段已逆势走强。结合基本面来看，高股息板块优先关注银行与中字头 建筑央企，PB 估值 0.5-0.6 倍，基本面受益于化债政策落地。其次可以关注 旺季来临、高频数据好于往年同期的动力煤板块，上周以来重点电厂煤电日 耗数据触底较早、数据高于往年同期，库存拐点也提前往年 ...

2024 年 10 月 27 日 宏观经济 财政支出加快，工业高频数据继续改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.10.21—2024.10.27） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证综指、沪深 300 与创业板指分别收涨 1.2%、0.8%与 2.0%。 债券市场整体收跌 0.4%，7 日、14 日银行间回购收益率分别上升 12.9bp 与 7.7bp，国债收益率分化，1 年期国债收益率下降 3.5bp，5 年、10 年期国债 收益率分别上升 3.5bp、2.3bp。海外，美股三大股指涨跌不一，纳斯达克指 数收涨 0.2%，道琼斯、标普 500 指数分别收跌 2.7%与 1.0%，终结连续 6 周 的涨势。 A 股配臵策略：市场表现高切低、板块继续轮动，关注大市值蓝筹股补 涨板块机会。美国大选临近、通胀数据披露在即、人大常委会会议延后，市 场整体风险偏好或有所回落，股市反弹以来成长股、中小市值股票表现靠前， 调整阶段大市值蓝筹股票有望补涨，关注三季报绩优品种。目前地产高频数 据依然强劲，家居板块门店订单量等数据持续验证，地产产业链仍保持高景 气，建筑建材、家居以及化工品种仍有望强劲。成长科技仍为机构主线，若 ...

2024 年 10 月 21 日 宏观经济 经济特征有哪些新变化 ——2024 年 9 月经济数据点评 宏观点评 9 月以来，经济特征发生了一些新变化。其一，经济的短期拐点出现。 8 月经济是短期的底部，9 月经济是短期的拐点。这一方面得益于季节性因 素，另一方面是因为存量政策发力，增量政策主要影响四季度。其二，内外 需可能反转。随着存量政策发力，以及新增政策落地，内需有所恢复，基建 投资、制造业投资、房地产销售、消费等数据同比增速不同程度回升。全球 制造业 PMI 已经连续 4 个月下滑，随着"抢出口"、圣诞季备货效应的消退， 加上高基数效应，出口压力增加。其三，服务业生产增速回升。内需恢复下， 工业生产保持稳健。与此同时，金融业、房地产业回暖，服务业 GDP 增速 回升。未来，服务业和工业生产增速的差距可能会缩小。其四，物价降幅有 望持续收窄。三季度 GDP 平减指数同比下降 0.56%，虽然仍是负增长，不 过降幅较二季度收窄。 四季度积极因素增加，全年基本可以实现经济增长目标。三季度，实际 GDP 同比增速 4.6%，符合预期。三季度名义 GDP 同比增速 4%，和二季度 差不多，GDP 平减指数同比下 ...

2024 年 10 月 18 日 宏观经济 多举措促进房地产市场止跌回稳，股市维持宽幅震荡 ——2024 年 10 月 17 日国新办新闻发布会学习体会 宏观点评 房地产市场"组合拳"概括起来是"四个取消、四个降低、两个增加"。 四个取消，就是充分赋予城市政府调控自主权，城市政府要因城施策，调整 或取消各类购房的限制性措施。四个降低，就是降低住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；降低住房贷款的首付比例，统一一套、二套房贷最低首付比 例到 15%；降低存量贷款利率；降低"卖旧买新"换购住房的税费负担。两 个增加，一是通过货币化安臵房方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造和危旧房 改造；二是年底前将"白名单"项目信贷规模增加至 4 万亿元，将所有房地 产合格项目都争取纳入"白名单"。其中，"两个增加"是本次新闻发布会 的重要亮点。 城中村改造货币化，消化存量商品房。此次城中村改造和危旧房改造有 两个重点，一是规模上新增实施 100 万套，二是方式上主要采取货币化安臵。 此次城中村改造新增 100 万套，假如每套 100 平方米，共 1 亿平方米，占 2023 年房地产新开工面积、施工面积的 10.5%、1.2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommend" rating to Chuanyi Co Ltd (603100 SH) for the first time [1] Core Views - Chuanyi Co Ltd is a leading domestic intelligent instrumentation company, representing the trend of domestic substitution and self-reliance in China's manufacturing sector [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the "deepening" phase of domestic substitution, which focuses on core components and supply chain security [1] - Chuanyi Co Ltd is a state-owned high-tech enterprise with strong fundamentals, multiple catalysts, and low valuation, making it a long-term investment opportunity [1] Company Overview - Chuanyi Co Ltd is the largest domestic industrial automation instrumentation and control device company, with the most comprehensive product portfolio and system integration capabilities [1] - The company's main revenue source is automation instrumentation, contributing 65 98 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 89 0% of total revenue [1] - The company's products include high-precision intelligent pressure transmitters, electric actuators, intelligent control valves, and intelligent flow instruments, with continuous product upgrades and expanding product lines [1] Industry Overview - The industrial automation instrumentation and control device industry is the largest sub-sector of the instrumentation industry, with a domestic market size of 41 4 billion yuan, dominated by foreign brands [1] - The industry has significant growth potential, as evidenced by the success of global giants like Emerson, Honeywell, Siemens, and E+H [1] - The domestic substitution trend, driven by government policies and market demand, is expected to accelerate the development of the industry [1] Competitive Advantages - Chuanyi Co Ltd has a comprehensive product portfolio, covering almost all major categories of automation instrumentation, enabling it to provide industry-wide solutions [1] - The company has accumulated decades of R&D experience and manufacturing expertise, with a strong focus on technological innovation and market-driven R&D mechanisms [1] - The company has a deep industry moat due to its self-sufficient supply chain and core production tools, making it difficult for competitors to replicate [1] Catalysts - State-owned enterprise reform and the company's strong backing from the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission provide a competitive edge [2] - Long-term capital expenditure growth in downstream process automation industries, such as petrochemicals, will support the company's growth [2] - The company is a key player in the domestic substitution of industrial instrumentation, with significant strategic importance for national economic security [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue of 8 039 billion yuan, 8 890 billion yuan, and 9 979 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8 48%, 10 58%, and 12 26% [3] - Net profit is expected to reach 803 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 1 052 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 7 96%, 14 39%, and 14 54% [3] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 12 0X, 10 5X, and 9 2X for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating undervaluation compared to industry peers [3]

2024 年 10 月 12 日 宏观经济 一揽子财政举措，多管齐下，助经济企稳回升 ——2024 年 10 月 12 日国新办新闻发布会学习体会 宏观点评 10 月 12 日，国新办新闻发布会上，财政部宣布了一揽子政策，多管齐 下，主要内容是：一是加力支持地方化解政府债务风险，较大规模增加债务 额度，支持地方化解隐性债务，地方可以腾出更多精力和财力空间来促发展、 保民生。二是发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本，提升 这些银行抵御风险和信贷投放能力，更好地服务实体经济发展。三是叠加运 用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市场止 跌回稳。四是加大对重点群体的支持保障力度。 财政部还表示，这四点是目前已经进入决策程序的政策，还有其他政策 工具也正在研究中。比如中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间。此 外，财政部还通过利用债务结存限额等方式，对加强"三保"做了系统安排。 整体来看，这一揽子财政政策，从规模、时间、结构上都符合或超出社 会预期。从规模上看，我们预计增发政府债券规模可能是每年 2 万亿元，持 续 3 年；预计 2025 年赤字率可能上调至 4%左右；一次性化债规 ...