Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 82 per share, implying a 2026E P/S of 9 5x and a forward PE of less than 30x based on steady-state assumptions [2] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic intelligent driving solution provider, ranking fourth in China's ADAS and AD solution market in 2023 and first among Chinese companies [2] - The company holds a 35% market share in China's NOA high-end intelligent driving computing solutions, second only to NVIDIA's 49% [2] - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to reach RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions dominating the market [2] - Horizon Robotics benefits from its strong software-hardware integration capabilities, first-mover advantage, and domestic substitution trends [2] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics generated RMB 1 55 billion in revenue in 2023, with automotive product solutions, licensing and services, and non-automotive solutions accounting for 33%, 62%, and 5% respectively [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 5 billion by 2026 [2] - Horizon Robotics' core management team has strong technical backgrounds, with founders holding significant voting power (53 64% and 12 09%) [80][93] Industry Analysis - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to grow from RMB 61 9 billion in 2023 to over RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 49 2% [106] - In China, the market is projected to expand from RMB 24 5 billion in 2023 to RMB 407 billion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions growing at a CAGR of 58 5% [108] - Key drivers include rapid technological iteration, increasing penetration of intelligent driving, rising ASPs for high-end solutions, and supportive government policies [113] Competitive Advantages - Horizon Robotics' strengths lie in its software-defined hardware approach, strong customer stickiness due to high switching costs, and its position as a domestic player benefiting from localization trends [2] - The company has established a comprehensive product portfolio, including Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, with the latter expected to contribute to revenue from 2024 [71][76] Growth Drivers - The company's hardware business is expected to benefit from the downward penetration of intelligent driving in the automotive sector, while its software business will gain from OEMs' increasing in-house R&D efforts [2] - Horizon Robotics' partnership with Volkswagen through the joint venture Coretronic is expected to drive growth in licensing and services [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 2 24 billion in 2024E to RMB 4 97 billion in 2026E, with non-GAAP net profit turning positive in 2026E at RMB 322 million [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, ranging between 70%-80%, driven by the high-margin licensing business [99]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Ivonescimab (依沃西单抗) demonstrated significant therapeutic benefits in multiple clinical trials, particularly in the HARMONi-2 study where it outperformed pembrolizumab (帕博利珠单抗), showcasing its potential as a global blockbuster [1] - The overseas expansion of Ivonescimab is expected to enhance its revenue peak and company valuation [1] - The company's mature pipeline, including cadonilimab (卡度尼利单抗) and inusirumab (伊努西单抗), is progressing steadily towards commercialization, with new indications and market potential [4] Clinical Results - In the HARMONi-2 study, Ivonescimab showed a significant PFS advantage over pembrolizumab (11.14 vs 5.82 months, HR=0.51) and demonstrated excellent safety with low rates of TRAE-related discontinuation and mortality (1.5% and 0.5%) [2] - Ivonescimab also showed promising efficacy in NSCLC perioperative treatment, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, and TNBC in Phase II trials [2] Overseas Expansion - Ivonescimab's overseas Phase III trials, HARMONi and HARMONi-3, are progressing, with HARMONi-3 expanding its target population to include both squamous and non-squamous NSCLC [3] - The HARMONi-7 study targeting PD-L1 strong-positive NSCLC patients is set to begin in early 2025, further enhancing Ivonescimab's global potential [3] Other Pipelines - Cadonilimab has seen new indications approved and has been included in the national medical insurance, boosting its commercialization potential [4] - Inusirumab, a PCSK9 monoclonal antibody, was approved in September, and other non-oncology drugs are expected to be launched within the next three years [4] Market Differentiation - The report differs from market consensus by expressing strong confidence in the company's overseas potential, citing the robust data from the HARMONi-2 study and the likelihood of replicating domestic success in international markets [5] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 have been revised downward to 2.312/3.342/5.409 billion RMB (down 13.0/20.8/14.0% from previous estimates) due to national negotiations and the approval pace of non-oncology drugs [6] - The DCF terminal value has been increased from 36 billion to 65.2 billion RMB, leading to a target market cap of 84.5 billion RMB and a target price of 100.45 HKD [6] Industry Insights - The report highlights the potential of IO (immuno-oncology) combined with anti-angiogenesis therapies, noting that while some combinations have shown promise, others have failed due to toxicity and efficacy issues [27][28] - The LEAP series of studies, which explored the combination of pembrolizumab and lenvatinib, showed mixed results, with some studies achieving positive outcomes while others failed to meet OS endpoints [29][30][31]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中国宏桥(01378.HK) 2024 年 12 月 19 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：原材料业/一般金属及矿石 当前价格(港币)：11.58 元 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 26% 51% 77% 103% 129% 154% 中国宏桥 恒生指数 0% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------|---------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | -26% 2023-12 | 2024-04 | 2024-08 | | | 恒 生 指 数 对 比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -2.05 | -9.56 | 19.81 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -3.46 | -7.67 | 8.25 | | 资料来源：德邦研 ...

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华福证券 基本数据 日期 2024-12-18 收盘价： 9.34 港元 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 2,534.27/2,534.27 流通市值(百万港元) 23,670.08 每股净资产(港元) 15.92 资产负债率(%) 79.70 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 11.72/4.94 财务数据和估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 主营收入（百万元） 127,153 131,383 135,207 139,549 142,004 增长率 27% 3% 3% 3% 2% 归母净利润（百万 元） 2,584 3,092 2,772 3,122 3,662 增长率 -21% 20% -10% 13% 17% EPS（元/股） 1.02 1.22 1.09 1.23 1.44 市盈率（P/E） 8.5 7.1 7.9 7.0 6.0 市净率（P/B） 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 数据来源：公司公告、华福证券研究所 币种：人民币 绿城中国（03900.HK） 进击的品质龙头，聚焦核心城市群发展 投资要点： 央企基因品质标杆，经营稳健韧性十足。公司于 1995 年成立于杭州， ...

港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 买入(维持评级) 巨子生物 (02367.HK) 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 事件简评 国家药监局 12 月 17 日官网公示，巨子生物骨修复材料获批三类 医疗器械，符合此前招股书 24Q4 拿证预期。1）适应症：牙颌 骨、牙槽骨缺损填充和修复；2）优势：既能快速塑形不塌陷起 到支撑作用，又具有引导骨再生的高效修复作用；3）成分：无 机成分为羟基磷灰石颗粒，有机成分为大分子多糖。 事件点评 严肃医疗领域：基于胶原蛋白的生物医用材料市场规模由 17 年的 10 亿元增至 21 年的 32 亿元、复合增速 33.5%，预计 27 年进一步增至 199 亿元，22-27 年复合增速 35.1%（沙利文数 据）。供给端看，据药监局，除巨子生物外，奥精医疗科 技、天津市赛宁生物等旗下的胶原蛋白+羟基磷灰石复合的 骨修复材料已获批三类械。 更可期的是羟基磷灰石在医美领域的合规应用。1）优势： 羟基磷灰石在医美领域主要用于骨缺损填充和软组织注射填 充，特有粒径工艺的羟基磷灰石具备刺激胶原再生、收紧提 升的功效，且可被人体安全代谢，对比传统的胶原和玻尿酸 填充剂，效果持续周期更长。2）国内获批 ...

绿叶制药（2186 HK）| 2024 年 12 月 17 日 绿叶制药（2186 HK） 核心产品需求稳定，多款新药将逐步兑现 拥有广阔销售网络的著名药企，产品线不断扩张 公司为港股著名制药企业，在肿瘤、心血管、中枢神经领域分别拥有力朴素、血脂康、思 瑞康、利斯的明贴剂等著名产品，销售网络覆盖国内 21,000 多家医院和 80 多个国家。近 年肿瘤与中枢神经领域又推出百拓维、赞必佳、若欣林等优质产品，预计 2025 年消化代谢 领域的糖尿病重磅新药度拉糖肽与黄斑病变药物阿柏西普也有望获批，产品线不断扩张。 中枢神经业务收入稳健增长 公司中枢神经药包括精神分裂症药物思瑞康、阿尔兹海默症等的贴剂、抑郁症药物若欣林 等，预计该板块收入 2023-26ECAGR 为 13.2%，基于：1）从阿斯利康（AZN US）引进的思 瑞康质量优异，国内主要竞争对手 20 年后两次集采降价，但没参加集采的思瑞康 2023 与 24 年上半年收入均稳定，表明刚需强大，预计 2024-26E 该态势将持续。2）贴剂板块核心 产品阿尔兹海默症药利斯的明为诺华（NVS US）产品的全球首仿，质量优异在多国销售， 预计利斯的明销量的快 ...

证券研究报告 高端美妆品牌，品类延展可期 ——毛戈平（1318.HK）深度报告 股票投资评级：买入⎮ 首次覆盖 李媛媛 S1340523020001 化妆品&医美分析师 中邮证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | 中邮证券 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024年12月17日 | | | 投资要点 Ø 本土领先高端美妆品牌。公司成立于2000年，创始人毛戈平先生及配偶上市前持股比例为57.26%，股权集中， 家族+高管上市前持股比例达94.55%，财务投资者较少；公司于24年12月10日上市，发行7842万股，占比总股 份的16.4%。23年公司收入/归母净利润分别为28.9亿元、6.6亿元，3年复合增速均超过35%，维持20%左右净利 率，财务表现稳健；24H1收入/归母净利润均同增41%至19.7亿元/4.9亿元。公司主品牌MAOGEPING收入占比超 过95%，覆盖彩妆及护肤，23年护肤品占比提升至40%；公司线下专柜 ...

证券研究报告 巨子生物 (2367 HK) 港股通 首个 III 类医疗器械注册证获批，前景可期 华泰研究 动态点评 2024 年 12 月 18 日│中国香港 零售 17 日公司公众号披露获得首个 III 类医疗器械注册证，为骨修复材料。此外， 另一款 III 类医疗器械"注射用重组胶原蛋白填充剂"（用于颈纹）"列入国 家重点研发计划的医疗器械"，近日列入优先审批通道，产品上市时间有望 缩短；此外我们预计其用于眼部细纹填充的医美产品有望于 25Q1 获批，或 为公司医美领域 III 类首证。此前市场对于公司医美领域 III 类医疗器械的获 批节奏存在担忧，近期公司在该领域的积极进展彰显公司研发实力、具积极 信号意义，公司医美产品报批节奏仍有条不紊。参考锦波生物、爱美客 （24Q1-Q3 营收 9.9/23.8 亿，主要为医美收入，净利率 53%/67%），后续 公司眼部细纹、颈纹产品若能获批可能会带来较大业绩增量。维持买入评级。 公司获批骨修复材料 III 类医疗器械注册证 12 月 17 日，据公司公众号披露，巨子生物获得骨修复材料 III 类医疗器械 注册证，针对牙颌骨、牙槽骨缺损填充和修复需求，无机成 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | 滔搏（ 06110 ） | | 2024 年 12 月 18 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 期待消费刺激政策带动 | 行业 非必需性消费 | / 专业零 | | | | 售 | | 公司发布三季度运营表现 | 6 | 个月评级 增持（维持评级） | | FY25Q ...