即时点评 高管团队大调整，创始人张勇先生重任 CEO 海底捞（6862.HK） 2026-01-14 星期三 ➢ 投资建议 根据我们的跟踪，公司 25 年下半年以来翻台率同比企稳，展望 26 年， 在低基数效应以及公司持续专注产品创新和门店升级的作用下，经营或 继续改善，公司股息率达 6%以上，值得积极关注。 【事件】 1 月 13 日，公司发布公告，苟轶群已辞任公司执行董事及首席执行官， 基于对公司管理层安排的整体调整及综合考察，董事会主席兼执行董事 张勇已获委任为公司首席执行官，自 2026 年 1 月 13 日起生效。 【点评观点】 ➢ 创始人兼董事长张勇时隔四年重任 CEO， 新任四位新董事 张勇先生作为海底捞创始人，于 2018 年海底捞上市时担任 CEO。2022 年 3 月，杨利娟女士接棒 CEO，并在担任海底捞 CEO 一职 2 年多后离开， 履新特海国际 CEO。2024 年 6 月，由苟轶群先生接任海底捞 CEO，在任 期间主要推动新品牌及新业务的孵化与发展，推出"红石榴计划"。本次 辞任后，他将继续留在海底捞担任关键管理职务，并专注于信息技术、人 工智能、自动化等领域。 此外，公司新任命 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月14日 海底捞（06862.HK） 创始人重新出任 CEO，2026 年经营蓄势待发 公司研究·公司快评 社会服务·酒店餐饮 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 曾光 0755-82150809 zengguang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980511040003 证券分析师： 张鲁 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120002 事项： 2026 年 1 月 13 日晚，海底捞发布公告，苟轶群已辞任公司执行董事及首席执行官，宋青和高洁辞任执行 董事。李娜娜、朱银花、焦德凤及朱轩宜获委任为执行董事，公司董事会主席及执行董事张勇获委任为首 席执行官。公告同时称，上述辞任董事将继续在集团担任重要管理职能。其中，苟轶群将在集团统筹推动 管理流程的智能化与自动化规划，推动运营模式升级和智能中台建设，提升组织管理效率与决策性能；宋 青将继续担任集团产品委员会主任一职。 国信社服观点： 1）从啄木鸟计划到红石榴计划，创始人张勇时隔 4 年重新出任 CEO。2018 年-2022 年 3 月（张勇任 C ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the successful launch of "Heart Town" international version, which topped the free charts in over 50 regions and achieved 5 million downloads shortly after its release. This game is expected to enhance user engagement and retention, contributing to revenue growth [4][5] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to boost revenue from existing games, while new game developments are expected to provide significant revenue increments. The company forecasts net profits of 1.507 billion, 2.006 billion, and 2.387 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 19, and 16 [4][6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap, with a projected revenue increase of 33% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and the launch of high-profile games [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million - 2024: 5,012 million - 2025: 6,353 million - 2026: 7,620 million - 2027: 8,441 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 47.9% in 2024, 26.7% in 2025, 20.0% in 2026, and 10.8% in 2027 [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: -554 million - 2024: 812 million - 2025: 1,507 million - 2026: 2,006 million - 2027: 2,387 million - The report indicates a significant improvement in net profit margins, with net profit margins expected to reach 23.7% in 2025 and 28.3% in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 98.00 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to see growth in 2026 driven by its "all demographics + all price points + globalization" strategy, with new product lines such as building cars and international expansion contributing significantly [2][3] - Despite a weaker performance in traditional toy segments in 2025, new business lines like the 9.9 yuan Starry Edition and adult-oriented products are anticipated to boost revenue in the second half of 2025 and continue into 2026 [2] - The company has expanded its IP matrix, increasing the number of commercialized IPs from 14 in 2024 to 24 in 2025, with a total of approximately 63 IPs available for future development [2] - The introduction of new product categories, particularly building cars, is expected to contribute additional revenue in 2026, with the global vehicle toy market projected to reach RMB 102.8 billion [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at RMB 6.50 billion, RMB 8.71 billion, and RMB 11.60 billion respectively, with adjusted EPS of RMB 2.61, RMB 3.50, and RMB 4.65 [5][11] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 2.90 billion in 2025 and RMB 3.77 billion in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.42% and 30.08% respectively [11][19] International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in its global strategy, achieving overseas revenue of RMB 1.11 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 899%, with overseas revenue accounting for 8.3% of total revenue [3] - The company has showcased its products at international toy fairs in various countries, enhancing its global presence and brand recognition [3] Product Development - The company has accelerated its product launch schedule, with over 900 new SKUs introduced in 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is expected to positively impact revenue in early 2026 [2] - The new building car products launched in November 2025 are expected to leverage high-density materials and innovative designs, enhancing user experience and driving sales growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust growth in retail sales, with both the main brand and children's clothing achieving approximately 10% year-on-year growth in 4Q25, continuing a steady growth trend despite high base effects [1][11]. - E-commerce sales recorded a high double-digit growth in 4Q25, indicating strong performance in online channels [7][11]. - The company is enhancing its brand power through innovative products and marketing strategies, including the introduction of "super stores" to upgrade channel efficiency and expand international presence [5][11]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In 4Q25, the main brand and children's clothing retail sales both achieved approximately 10% year-on-year growth, maintaining a steady growth trend [1][11]. - The e-commerce platform saw overall sales achieve high double-digit year-on-year growth, continuing a solid performance [7][11]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company launched new products in various categories, including running, basketball, and outdoor gear, which have received significant market attention [6]. - The introduction of "super stores" is expected to enhance customer acquisition and sales efficiency, with a notable increase in new customer ratios [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,074 million in 2024 to RMB 14,019 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.30% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2024 to RMB 1,655 million by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a target PE of 10.1x for 2026, with a target price of HKD 8.00, reflecting a discount compared to comparable companies due to its current brand scale and market share [9][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price range of HKD 125 to 150, while the current stock price is HKD 117.4 [2][5]. Core Insights - JD Group's total revenue is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 480 million yuan [1][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue growth for the electric category is due to the reduction of national subsidies and a high comparative base from the previous year, while daily necessities and third-party (3P) revenues are expected to maintain double-digit growth [1][5]. - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the company's growth resilience under its self-operated model and strong supply chain bargaining power, which is expected to enhance profit margins [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the projected main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: 1,084,662 (2023), 1,158,819 (2024), 1,305,167 (2025E), 1,361,675 (2026E), and 1,419,895 (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 7%, 13%, 4%, and 4% respectively [2][6]. - The Non-GAAP net profit projections are: 35,200 (2023), 47,827 (2024), 26,428 (2025E), 32,720 (2026E), and 50,951 (2027E), with significant fluctuations in growth rates [2][6]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio forecast of 8.7 (2023), 6.4 (2024), 11.6 (2025E), 9.4 (2026E), and 6.0 (2027E) [2][9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [4]. - Relative performance indicates a 6.0% outperformance over one month, 2.4% over six months, but a 9.8% underperformance over the past year [4]. Business Segment Insights - The report notes that the new business segment is expected to reduce losses in Q4, with improvements in delivery volume and user experience (UE) for the food delivery service [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the food delivery business will continue to improve in 2026, with a focus on enhancing user experience [1][5]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 3,188 million shares, with 2,865 million shares listed in Hong Kong [3]. - The major shareholder, Max Smart Limited, holds a 9.6007% stake in the company [3]. Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.3% [3][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027 are 8.34, 14.27, 5.85, 9.26, and 14.87 respectively [2][9].

研究报告 Research Report 14 Jan 2026 首次覆盖：重组胶原蛋白领军者，2026 战略转型开启品牌化新篇章 Recombinant Collagen Leader: 2026 Strategy Ushers in Brand New Era: Initiation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$35.74 目标价 HK$43.60 HTI ESG 3.1-3.9-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$38.27bn / US$4.91bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$58.76mn 发行股票数目 1,071mn 自由流通股 (%) 45% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$84.90-HK$33.28 注：现价 HK$35.74 为 2026 年 01 月 13 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7][19]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 84.23 billion RMB in FY2023 to 130.8 billion RMB by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [7][19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 9.6 billion RMB in FY2023 to 15.1 billion RMB in FY2027, with a steady growth trajectory [7][19]. - The company has successfully expanded its "super premium" store concept, with 126 stores opened by the end of 2025, exceeding expectations and contributing to its revenue growth [7][19]. - The company has maintained a stable discount rate of 7-7.1, indicating effective inventory management and pricing strategy [7][19]. - The introduction of new product lines and strategic marketing partnerships has enhanced brand visibility and sales performance, particularly in the running and basketball segments [7][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: 84.23 billion RMB, 100.7 billion RMB, 111.8 billion RMB, 121.4 billion RMB, and 130.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 21%, 20%, 11%, 9%, and 8% [7][19]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 9.6 billion RMB, 11.5 billion RMB, 12.6 billion RMB, 13.9 billion RMB, and 15.1 billion RMB, with growth rates of 29%, 20%, 10%, 10%, and 9% [7][19]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027, indicating efficient cost management [7][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum with double-digit revenue growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025, where both adult and children's apparel retail sales increased by approximately 10% year-on-year [7] - The expansion of super stores has exceeded expectations, with a total of 126 super stores opened by the end of 2025, including 21 children's clothing stores, contributing significantly to offline growth [7] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level with a stable discount rate, indicating robust operational performance [7] - Product innovation and enhanced marketing strategies are driving brand strength, with new product launches in running and basketball categories [7] - The company is also expanding its outdoor brand "One Way," which is expected to capitalize on the growing outdoor trend [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 12.6 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.1 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [6][18] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections are as follows: - FY2023: 84.23 billion RMB - FY2024: 100.7 billion RMB - FY2025E: 111.8 billion RMB - FY2026E: 121.4 billion RMB - FY2027E: 130.8 billion RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2023: 9.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 11.5 billion RMB - FY2025E: 12.6 billion RMB - FY2026E: 13.9 billion RMB - FY2027E: 15.1 billion RMB - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [2]. Core Insights - The company has entered a value realization phase with its AI pharmaceutical platform, highlighted by the clinical trial approval of its drug RTX-117 for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease, marking a significant milestone in its drug development pipeline [6]. - The innovative approach of RTX-117 targets the key mechanisms of the disease, demonstrating effective restoration of motor function in preclinical studies, thus validating the company's AI-driven drug development capabilities [6]. - The company has established a robust business model that integrates AI technology with a flexible commercial strategy, allowing for rapid drug development and a diversified revenue stream from collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies [6]. - The financial projections indicate substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 785 million in 2025 and RMB 1.485 billion in 2027, alongside a path to profitability by 2027 [2][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 266 million in 2024 to RMB 1.485 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.6% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1.517 billion in 2024 to a profit of RMB 92 million in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to transition from -0.35 RMB in 2024 to 0.02 RMB in 2027, suggesting a positive shift towards profitability [2][7].