上 市 公 司 交通运输 ——东南亚及新市场业务量高增，上调盈利预测 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 11.20 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9244.24 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.34/4.53 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,005.49 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 8,897.93 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9014 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -20% 30% 80% 130% HSCEI 极兔速递-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 《极兔速递-W（01519）点评：东南亚维持 高 景 气 ， 新 市 场 打 开 新 增 长 曲 线 》 2025/10/15 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 07 日 极兔速递-W (01519) 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.63 [1][10]. Core Views - The company has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 128%. This growth is primarily driven by increased sales of electric two-wheelers and product structure optimization [6][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the two-wheeler industry, leveraging its systematic advantages in product strength and distribution channels to consolidate its market position. It aims to expand into the mid-to-high-end market and overseas markets to unlock long-term growth potential [6][10]. - The company anticipates achieving high-quality growth in its two-wheeler business in 2025, with expected sales exceeding 16.2 million units, including over 7.4 million units in the second half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 11% [7]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with brands like "Crown" and "Modern," building differentiated competitive barriers. It is also increasing its self-supply ratio in battery production, which will enhance profitability [8]. - The company is benefiting from policy-driven replacement demand in Southeast Asian markets, with local production and policy alignment expected to boost its market share as electric motorcycles replace fuel-powered ones [9]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 37.19 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.71%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.94 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131.26% [5][10]. - The report forecasts an EPS of RMB 0.99 for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 10.35 times [5][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 34.77% in 2025, increasing to 39.36% in 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for BaTeLab, assigning a target price of HKD 118.13 based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - BaTeLab is positioned as a leading provider of industrial-grade simulation IC pattern wafers in China, benefiting from the trend of import substitution in the semiconductor industry [1][4]. - The global simulation IC industry is expected to continue its recovery into the first half of 2025, driven by the ongoing electrification and intelligent development of manufacturing, alongside emerging applications that increase demand for high-performance analog chips [1]. - The company focuses on high-end industrial-grade simulation IC pattern wafers, leveraging its technological strengths and a comprehensive design platform that integrates EDA and IP [4][8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for BaTeLab from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 188 million, RMB 223 million, and RMB 265 million, respectively, with corresponding revenue forecasts of RMB 590 million, RMB 708 million, and RMB 835 million [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 is approximately RMB 291.7 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 0.4%, with a gross margin of approximately 51.8% [4]. Market Position and Strategy - BaTeLab is recognized as one of the largest providers of simulation IC pattern wafers in China, holding a market share of 1.7% in a fragmented market where the top five providers collectively account for only 5% [7]. - The company has developed China's only full-stack design platform for simulation ICs, enabling efficient product development and delivery of standardized high-performance pattern wafers [13][54]. - The Chinese simulation IC market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach RMB 5,165 billion by 2027, driven by strong demand and favorable industry policies [25][33]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that BaTeLab's competitive advantage lies in its automated IC design capabilities and extensive application coverage, distinguishing it from other players in the market [53]. - The company’s focus on the industrial-grade segment is expected to yield higher growth rates compared to other categories, with a projected CAGR of 14.4% for the simulation IC pattern wafer market from 2022 to 2027 [29][33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Insights - The brand IF coconut water continues to perform well, with expected rapid growth in 2025, outpacing the industry average. The company is also enhancing brand building and operational improvements [4] - The coconut water industry is projected to grow at an overall rate of 27.18% in 2025, significantly higher than the growth rates of other beverage categories [4] - The company has signed a partnership with COFCO in September 2025, indicating ongoing channel expansion efforts [5] - A share buyback plan has been announced, aiming to enhance shareholder value as the current stock price does not reflect its intrinsic value [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to reach $183.86 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 16.63%, and projected to grow to $322.21 million by 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $31.84 million in 2025, with a decline of 4.43%, but is expected to rebound with a growth of 61.13% in 2026 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $0.12 in 2025, increasing to $0.25 by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 11, and 8 for the respective years [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of 6.69 HKD over the next six months [4][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading dairy farm in China, benefiting from the anticipated rebound in raw milk prices and beef prices, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity [3][9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 1.2%, 9.6%, and 12.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 0.1 billion, 15.7 billion, and 27.1 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Raw Milk Cycle - By December 2025, raw milk prices have decreased by 31% from their peak in August 2021, marking nearly four and a half years of decline. A rebound is expected in 2026 due to factors such as the aging of the cow herd and the expiration of large powder stocks, which will drive demand for fresh raw milk [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in raw milk prices, which will enhance its gross profit margins from raw milk sales [1][3]. Beef Cycle - The price of live cattle has also entered a new upward cycle after a decline of 31% from its peak in January 2023 to a low in February 2025. The report anticipates that live cattle prices will continue to rise in 2026, benefiting the company's income from the sale of culled cattle [2][3]. - The company is projected to earn approximately 700 million CNY from the sale of culled cattle in 2024, which will be positively impacted by the rising prices of live cattle [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 20.33 billion CNY in 2025, 22.28 billion CNY in 2026, and 25.11 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.1 billion, 1.57 billion, and 2.71 billion CNY [8][9]. - The gross margin for raw milk sales is projected to improve from 33.7% in 2025 to 38.1% in 2027, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and favorable market conditions [10][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 120 HKD [5] Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant asset operations and expansion, with a focus on long-term capacity expansion and supply chain localization. The acquisition of 97.4988% of Huali Micro by the company is expected to enhance its performance and liquidity [1][2] - The integration of Huali Micro is projected to increase the company's net profit by 151%, raising the earnings per share (EPS) by 127% [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of "specialized processes + logic processes," alongside the expansion of 12-inch capacity and technological synergies [1][4] Financial Impact on Balance Sheet - Without considering the financing, the total assets are expected to increase by 7.6% to 933.6 billion RMB, and the net assets will rise by 4.2% to 462.8 billion RMB [2][10] - If the financing is successful, total assets and net assets could increase by 16% and 21%, respectively, potentially pushing total assets beyond 1 trillion RMB [2][10] Financial Impact on Profit and Loss Statement - The acquisition is expected to contribute an additional 5.7 billion RMB to net profit, resulting in a total net profit of 9.6 billion RMB, a 151% increase compared to pre-acquisition figures [3][11] - The EPS is projected to rise from 0.22 RMB to 0.50 RMB, reflecting a significant enhancement in shareholder returns [3][11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to grow by 20.9%, 28.8%, and 17.6%, reaching 24.2 billion, 31.2 billion, and 36.7 billion USD, respectively [4][20] - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 4.2 times for 2026, reflecting its leading position in specialized processes within the semiconductor industry [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company announced a share buyback of up to HKD 400 million over five months, reflecting confidence in long-term development [5] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost revenue for the core product "Heart Town," with the international version set to launch on January 8, 2026, and has already garnered over one million global pre-registrations [5] - The company is optimistic about growth driven by festive events, regional expansion, and new game launches, with several high-profile mobile and PC games expected to launch in 2026 [5] - The performance of the game "Iser" in the domestic market has led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: HKD 3,389 million - 2024: HKD 5,012 million - 2025: HKD 6,353 million - 2026: HKD 7,620 million - 2027: HKD 8,441 million - Year-over-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2024: 47.9% - 2025: 26.7% - 2026: 20.0% - 2027: 10.8% [8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: -HKD 554 million - 2024: HKD 812 million - 2025: HKD 1,507 million - 2026: HKD 2,006 million - 2027: HKD 2,387 million - Year-over-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024: 1077.3% - 2025: 85.7% - 2026: 33.2% - 2027: 19.0% [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as follows: - 2025: 20.8 - 2026: 15.6 - 2027: 13.1 [8]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨吉利汽车（00175.HK） [Table_Title] 吉利汽车 2025 年 12 月销量点评：超额完成全 年目标，极氪 9X 月交付过万 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 吉利汽车发布 2025 年 12 月销量。公司 12 月销量 23.7 万辆，同比+12.7%，环比-23.7%。2025 年全年累计销量 302.5 万辆，同比+39.0%。新平台赋能，吉利汽车有望开启产品新时代。GEA 架构支撑新车周期，极氪、领克、银河全面向好。各品牌新能源转型顺利推进，规模效应逐步 凸显将带来盈利向上弹性。公司燃油车基盘稳固，联营企业创新出海模式持续打开海外新空间。 智能化战略即将开启，加速提升智驾能力。整车强势新周期下盈利具备较大弹性。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 吉利汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an IPO-specific rating of 5.9 out of 10 for the company, based on operational performance, industry outlook, offering valuation, and market sentiment [7]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 2005, operates under a fabless model focusing on integrated circuit design, with core products including specialized memory chips, MCUs, analog chips, and sensor chips, serving various sectors such as consumer electronics, automotive, and IoT [1]. - The semiconductor industry is characterized by significant cyclicality, with a recovery expected starting in 2024 after a downturn in 2023, driven by uneven market recovery and AI applications [3]. - The company holds leading positions in several market segments, including NOR Flash and SLC NAND Flash, with a strong emphasis on R&D and strategic acquisitions to enhance its product offerings and market presence [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2022 to 2025 show a decline from 81.30 billion CNY in 2022 to 57.61 billion CNY in 2023, followed by a recovery to 73.56 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits expected to follow a similar trend [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to gradually recover to 36.9% by mid-2025, with net asset value increasing to 174.35 billion CNY [2]. Industry Status and Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn in 2023 due to normalized demand post-pandemic, but signs of recovery are expected in 2024, particularly in AI-driven applications [3]. - The competitive landscape in the NOR Flash, SLC NAND Flash, and niche DRAM markets is concentrated, with the top three players holding significant market shares [3]. Strengths and Opportunities - The company benefits from a strong market position, diverse product matrix, and a robust R&D team, with over 15% of revenue allocated to R&D in 2023-2024 [4]. - The rise of edge AI is expected to create additional demand for the company's products, with strategic acquisitions enhancing its capabilities in the analog chip sector [4]. Weaknesses and Risks - The company faces intense market competition and reliance on third-party manufacturing, which may impact pricing and profitability [5][6]. - High supplier concentration poses risks, as the company depends heavily on a limited number of core partners for production [9].

拟收购河北康达，加码北方家居护理市场 朝云集团(6601) 朝云集团公司跟踪点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 朝云集团收购河北康达，加码北方家居护理市场，双品牌协同赋能增长。 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 2.24 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(港元) | 1.76-3.09 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 1,333 | | 当前市值(百万港元) | 2,987 | [Table_PicQuote] 52周 ...