小鹏汽车（9868.HK）系列点评九 2025Q3 盈利能力改善 具身智能开启新时代 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100523110002 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：cuiyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaomu@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025Q3 财报：2025Q3 实现单季营收 203.8 亿元，同比/ 环比分别为+101.8%/+11.5%。2025Q3 汽车业务毛利率为+13.1%，同比/环比 分别为+4.5pts/-1.2pts。2025Q3 non-GAAP 归母净利润为-1.5 亿元，同环比 减亏 90.1%/60.6%。 ➢ 毛利率超预期 经营质量持续优化 营 收 端 ： 2025Q3 实 现 单 季 营 收 入 203.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +101.8%/+11.5%。其中 2025Q3 汽车业务收入为 180.5 亿元，同比/环比分别 为+105.3%/+6.9%，主要是由于新推出车型的交付量增加。其他业务方面， 2025Q3 营收由 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for XPeng Motors, with a current price of HK$96.00 and a target price of HK$96.23 [2][3]. Core Insights - XPeng Motors is experiencing a recovery in earnings, with technology services emerging as a new growth driver. The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of Rmb20.38 billion, slightly below market expectations, but up 102% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter. The net loss narrowed to Rmb380 million, improving 79% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin rose to 20.1%, with service and other margins significantly contributing to gross-margin expansion, particularly from technical R&D services to OEMs like Volkswagen [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for XPeng are Rmb40.87 billion for 2024, Rmb78.46 billion for 2025, and Rmb112.03 billion for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 33%, 92%, and 43% respectively. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2026, with a projected net profit of Rmb1.12 billion and a diluted EPS of Rmb0.59 [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.3% in 2024 to 19.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to launch its Robotaxi fleet next year, leveraging in-house technology development to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. Initial commercialization will focus on system robustness and regulatory compliance, with plans to expand to more cities [4][11]. - XPeng is also advancing its humanoid robot production, targeting mass production of its eighth-generation model and aiming for annual deliveries of 1 million units by 2030. The cost structure is expected to improve significantly, with software accounting for over 50% of total costs [12][13]. Market Expansion - Overseas markets are projected to be a significant growth driver in 2026, with a strategy that includes passenger vehicles, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots. The company plans to launch multiple BEV/EREV models, with at least three planned for export [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.82 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] - The company achieved total sales of 761,000 units in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan (previously 15 billion yuan) due to strong sales performance in the first three quarters and the successful launch of new models [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.11%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 240.194 billion yuan, growing by 34.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 16.632 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 213.32% [1] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 0.52 yuan per share, with a forecast of 1.64 yuan for 2024 and 1.79 yuan for 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 29.84 for 2023, decreasing to 9.52 for 2024 and further to 8.76 for 2025 [1] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 325.928 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.04% [9] - The cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is expected to be 29.426 billion yuan, indicating a healthy cash generation capability [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 31.00 to HKD 36.50 per share [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading Hong Kong jewelry brand that has shown operational efficiency and positive same-store sales growth despite facing challenges from rising gold prices and changing consumer environments. The company achieved a revenue of HKD 133.41 billion in FY2025, with 39.5% from mainland China and 60.5% from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets [1][3]. - The jewelry consumption logic has shifted towards a dual value proposition of "fashion + value preservation," driven by innovative design and craftsmanship, which has enhanced the appeal of gold jewelry. This trend is expected to support margin recovery and drive stock price appreciation [1][3]. - The company is actively developing differentiated products that meet market demands, with a focus on optimizing sales capabilities in domestic stores and expanding overseas [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 133.41 billion for FY2025, a decrease of 12.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 1.1 billion, down 37.77% year-on-year. Adjusting for gold hedging losses and one-time gains from acquisitions, the decline in profit was narrowed to 6.3% [13][31]. - The forecast for net profit for FY2026 to FY2028 is projected at HKD 15.01 billion, HKD 17.87 billion, and HKD 20.28 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 36.48%, 19.08%, and 13.44% respectively [3][4]. Market Trends - The jewelry market is experiencing a shift towards gold products, which are expected to account for 80% of sales by 2024. The demand for gold jewelry is being driven by its perceived value preservation attributes amid rising gold prices [48][53]. - The company plans to open 50 new overseas stores in the coming years, capitalizing on the growing demand from overseas Chinese consumers and the global trend of seeking value-preserving investments [66][68]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel optimization, with a significant portion of revenue coming from self-operated and e-commerce retail, which accounted for 82.7% of total revenue in FY2025 [20][23]. - The introduction of high-margin fixed-price gold products has contributed to margin recovery, with the gross margin for gold and platinum products increasing to 26.35% in FY2025 [31][60]. Competitive Landscape - The jewelry industry is characterized by intense competition, with major players like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang dominating the market. The company holds a market share of 0.7%, ranking tenth among competitors [73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tencent Music [2][5] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 32.6% to 2.41 billion RMB [1][5] - Online music revenue continues to grow steadily, with a 27.2% year-on-year increase to 6.97 billion RMB, driven by subscription and advertising services [5][6] - The company is actively expanding into the fan economy and concert business, enhancing its competitive advantages through collaborations and content diversification [5][6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth are supported by effective cost control, with gross margin improving from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025 [5][6] - The online music subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU from 10.8 RMB to 11.9 RMB [5][6] - The company expects revenues to reach 32.66 billion RMB, 36.98 billion RMB, and 41.30 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 9.60 billion RMB, 10.85 billion RMB, and 12.18 billion RMB [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - Tencent Music holds a strong position in content copyright, with a focus on enhancing user willingness to pay and optimizing membership benefits [5][6] - The company is expanding its concert business, having successfully hosted multiple performances in various cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The introduction of interactive fan communities and exclusive artist-related benefits is expected to drive further growth in subscription rates and user engagement [5][6]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 规模效应持续释放，零跑盈利质量进入改善通道 Scale Benefits Materialize; Leapmotor Enters a Clear Margin-Improvement Cycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$54.80 目标价 HK$73.51 HTI ESG 3.5-3.3-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$61.98bn / US$7.97bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$60.60mn 发行股票数目 1,131mn 自由流通股 (%) 60% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$73.50-HK$27.70 注：现价 HK$54.80 为 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7][12] Core Views - The company is expected to see sustained performance growth driven by its AI projects and cloud transformation, with a focus on enhancing its competitive edge through strategic funding and resource integration [6][7] - The planned share placement aims to introduce diverse shareholders and relocate the company's registered office to Hong Kong, which is anticipated to improve communication with mainland investors and reduce tax burdens [5][7] - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 22% respectively, indicating strong financial health and potential for valuation expansion [7][8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 8,294 million in 2023, with a projected increase to 10,558 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [8] - Net profit is expected to rise from 202 million in 2023 to 892 million by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory [8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.9, 12.0, and 9.8 respectively, indicating an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Health, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - JD Health's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 17.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, with growth accelerating from 23.7% in Q2 [1][2]. - The company's operating profit surged by 125.3% year-on-year to 1.243 billion RMB, while the Non-IFRS net profit grew by 42.4% to 1.902 billion RMB, reflecting strong profit growth momentum [1][2]. - Strategic partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Bayer have reinforced JD Health's position as a leading platform for new specialty drugs [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth is expected to continue, with projections of 71.01 billion RMB in 2025, 82.90 billion RMB in 2026, and 95.48 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 22.1%, 16.7%, and 15.2% respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 6.256 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 30% [4]. Strategic Developments - JD Health is enhancing its digital healthcare services through collaborations with hospitals to develop AI-driven patient service platforms, aiming to improve patient experience and resource utilization [3]. - The company is expanding its online medical insurance payment services, which now cover nearly 200 million people, significantly increasing from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including an expected EPS of 1.95 RMB for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 32 [4]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 10.1% in the first half of 2025 to 11.1% in Q3 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is transforming into a "digital ecosystem operator" by leveraging its resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on residential and urban renewal projects [1][2]. - A significant acquisition of Wisdom Knight Holdings Limited for HKD 977 million positions the company strategically in the AI and green energy computing sectors [2]. - The traditional business model is now a growth driver, with a successful debt-to-equity conversion plan reducing the interest-bearing debt ratio from 45% to 7% [2]. - The integration of AI computing services and energy management is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 718 million, CNY 579 million, and CNY 789 million, respectively, with growth rates of +139.13%, -19.41%, and +36.41% [3][4]. - Revenue projections show a significant increase from CNY 801.54 million in 2025 to CNY 6,432.54 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 470.13% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -CNY 3.32 in 2024 to CNY 0.70 in 2027 [4]. Strategic Development - The company’s "urban ecosystem" strategy aims to convert idle factories and land into high-performance computing centers, aligning with its capabilities in urban development [3]. - The acquisition of high-value B-end resources from major cloud service providers and leading AI companies is anticipated to open new growth avenues [3]. - The dual business model of AI computing services and lifecycle management is validated commercially, enhancing the company's resilience and profitability [3].