上海复旦（1385） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------|-------------| | 存量市场竞争激烈， | | FPGA | 持有 \n | 产品毛利率阶段性承压 | | | 曹凌霁 | 2024 年 12 | 月 2 日 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 328.3, representing a 29.44% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with revenue of RMB 502.2 billion (+18.9% YoY) and net profit of RMB 25.2 billion (+18.1% YoY) [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by economies of scale in NEV sales [1] - November NEV sales reached 504,000 units (+67% YoY, +1% MoM), with DM5.0 models driving strong PHEV sales of 306,000 units (+133% YoY) [1] - Full-year 2024 NEV sales expected to exceed 4.1 million units, supported by strong DM5.0 model sales and government subsidies [1] - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for BEV models with new platform launches, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue & Profitability - Q3 revenue reached RMB 201.1 billion (+14.2% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 11.6 billion (+28% QoQ) [1] - Auto business revenue in Q3 was RMB 157.58 billion (+18% QoQ), with gross margin improving to 26% (+4 ppts QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast at RMB 780.1/953.3/1,130.6 billion, with net profit of RMB 37.5/45.8/55.9 billion [2][4] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 22.6% by 2026 [4] Vehicle Sales & Profitability - YTD November 2024 sales reached 3.74 million units (+40% YoY), with premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) contributing 163,000 units (+39.4% YoY) [1] - Q3 vehicle ASP increased to RMB 139,500 (+RMB 3,000 QoQ) due to higher-priced DM5.0 models [1] - Q3 vehicle profit per unit rose to RMB 9,400 (+RMB 8,000 QoQ), expected to remain stable in Q4 [1] International Expansion - November overseas sales reached 31,000 units, with YTD exports at 360,000 units (+74% YoY) [1] Valuation & Forecast - 2025 target valuation of HKD 888.1 billion based on 20x PE for auto business and 15x PE for electronics [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at RMB 12.87/15.74/19.20, with P/E ratios of 18.3x/15.0x/12.3x [2][4] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 2% by 2026 [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | |----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | BUQ780 | | 755-2151 9167 | | Email: fenghao@gyzq.com.hk | 波司登（3998.HK） 2024-12-02 星期一 | --- | |------------| | | | 目标价： | | 现 价： | | 预计升幅 : | | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | 日期 | 2024/11/29 | | 收盘价（港元） | 4.05 | | 总股本（亿股） | 111.0 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 449.4 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 132.5 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 269.1 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 5.14/ 2.87 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 1.33 | | 数据来源： Wind 、国元证券经纪（香港）整 | | 理 主要股东 | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国水务（00855.HK） FY2025 中报点评：运营性收入持续增长，盈 利结构优化，资本开支迎向下拐点 2024 年 12 月 03 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 14199 | 12859 | 11127 | 9983 | 9895 | | 同比 (%) | 9.21 | (9.44) | (13.47) | (10.28) | (0.88) | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 1857 | 1534 | 1450 | 1393 | 1438 | | 同比 (%) | (1.94) | (17.41) | (5.43) | (3.96) | 3.28 ...

公 司 研 究 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股公司信息更新报告 波司登（03998.HK） 2024 年 12 月 03 日 股价走势图 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/12/2 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 4.130 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 5.140/3.180 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 458.23 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 458.23 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 110.95 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 110.95 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 22.65 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 波司登 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 《基本面向好趋势不改，创新驱动助 力中长期行稳致远—港股公司信息更 新报告》-2024.7.4 《创新驱动及冷冬催化 FY2024 业绩 高增 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.6.28 《创新产品及 ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车 2024 年 11 月销量点评：单月销量首 破 3 万辆，连续 3 个月创历史新高 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车发布 2024 年 11 月销量。 11 月公司共交付新车 30895 台，同比增长 54.2% ，环比增 | | | 长 29.2% 。 2024 年 1-11 月，公司累计交付新车共 15.3 万台，同比增长 26.2% 。智能驾驶持续 | | | 领先，随着渠道变革和营销体系加强，叠加强势新车周期开启，公司销量有望稳步提升。 MONA | | | M03 和 P7+ 开启公司新车周期。规模提升、平台和技术降本效果将进一步体现，叠加软件盈利 | | | ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨零跑汽车（9863.HK） [Table_Title] 零跑汽车 11 月销量点评：月交付突破 4 万辆持 续创新高，提前完成全年 25 万辆交付目标 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 报告要点 | | | | [Table_Summary] 零跑汽车 11 月交付突破 4 万辆创历史新高，同比增长 117.0% ，环比增长 5.2% 。展望未来， | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 零跑汽车（9863.HK） cjzqdt11111 2024-12-03 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_BaseDat ...

股息 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 市销率20.75港元（估） 16.3 7.7 5.3 2.7 1.9 速腾聚创（2498.HK） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-----------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.92, representing a potential downside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][3] Core Views - China Gas' 1H FY25 earnings declined by 3.8% YoY to HKD 1.76 billion, missing market expectations by approximately 15% due to losses from joint ventures, higher taxes, and increased minority interests [1] - Retail gas sales volume grew by only 1.9% YoY in 1H FY25, dragged down by weak industrial gas demand, which grew by only 1% YoY [2] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved by RMB 0.02 per cubic meter to RMB 0.59, driven by residential gas price adjustments in 32 cities [2] - New residential connections declined by 14% YoY in 1H FY25 due to reduced rural coal-to-gas conversions and weak property sales [2] - The report downgrades FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 13-19%, reflecting slower industrial gas growth and reduced new residential connections [2] - Management expects the spin-off of value-added services to the US market to provide a second growth driver, but the timeline remains unclear [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 75.9 billion, followed by a gradual recovery with 2.7% and 2.9% growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 18.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 3.78 billion, with further growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - EPS is expected to decline by 4.6% YoY in FY25 to HKD 0.70, with subsequent growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to increase from 8.8x in FY24 to 9.3x in FY25, before declining to 8.7x and 8.2x in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 5.4% from FY25 to FY27, with a maintained dividend payout of HKD 0.35 per share [4] Operational Data and Forecasts - Total retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2.2% YoY in FY25 to 24.04 billion cubic meters, with growth slowing to 2.5% and 2.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] - Residential gas sales volume is forecasted to grow by 0.5% YoY in FY25 to 8.97 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas sales are expected to decline by 3.3% YoY to 14.65 billion cubic meters [8] - The gas sales gross margin is projected to remain stable at RMB 0.53 per cubic meter from FY25 to FY27 [8] - New residential connections are expected to decline by 5.2% YoY in FY25 to 1.27 million households, with further declines of 4.6% and 7.6% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - China Gas is trading at a discount to its peers, with a FY25E P/E of 9.3x compared to the sector average of 12.0x [9] - The company's FY25E P/B ratio of 0.63x is below the sector average of 1.0x [9] - Among peers, China Gas has the lowest potential upside of -8.1%, compared to 27.4% for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and 24.6% for ENN Energy (2688 HK) [13]

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 167.40 港元 226.00↓ +35.0% 互联网 2024 年 12 月 2 日 美团 (3690 HK) 3 季度业绩亮眼；维持 2025 年利润增长预期不变 2024 年 3 季度业绩：收入 936 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 22%，高于 我们/彭博一致预期 1%/2%，其中核心商业/新业务增 20%/29%。调整后净 利润同比增 124%，净利率 14%，较去年同期提升 6.2 个百分点。核心商业 调整后运营利润率21%，略好于我们预期的20%，同比提升3.5个百分点， 得益于竞争缓和下用户补贴和配送成本下降及广告变现提升；新业务运营 亏损 10 亿元，亏损率 4.2%，同环比收窄，好于我们预期的 19 亿元亏损， 因优选运营效率改善及其余新业务整体实现盈利。 业绩要点：1）外卖同比增速：利润>收入>单量，因广告变现提升、用户 补贴收敛及远距离/夜间/大件订单占比上升对配送收入的结构性改善。我 们估算 UE 1.3-1.4 元/单，同比提升但环比因季节性因素下降。2）闪购单 量同比增近 35%，用户数和交易频次双位数增长，规模效应下继续 ...