2025 年 03 月 05 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——2 月销量"淡季不淡"，强势新车周期来袭 上 市 公 司 汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 78.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8367.47 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 90.00/25.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,499.46 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,551.74 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0841 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -30% 70% 170% 03/04 04/04 05/04 06/04 07/04 08/04 09/04 10/04 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 4.33 based on a valuation of 15 times FY2025 earnings [4]. Core Views - The company has established itself as the largest retail partner for Adidas globally and the second largest for Nike, benefiting from strong operational capabilities and a focus on member services [1][2]. - The recovery of Nike and Adidas is expected to positively impact the company's performance, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these brands [2][3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend yield, averaging 104% over the past three years, making it an attractive option for dividend-seeking investors [3]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has rapidly developed since establishing partnerships with Nike and Adidas, focusing on building a robust membership system that has grown to 81 million members by FY25H1, a fourfold increase since FY2020 [1][22]. - The company has improved inventory management and store efficiency, reducing the number of stores from 8,302 at the end of FY2018 to 6,144 by the end of FY2024, while enhancing store productivity [1][28]. Investment Logic - The company's performance is closely tied to the recovery of Nike and Adidas, with Adidas showing positive growth since the appointment of a new CEO in January 2023, indicating a successful local market strategy [2][36]. - Nike's new CEO, appointed in October 2024, is expected to implement strategies similar to those of Adidas, potentially leading to a recovery in performance [3][43]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.22, 0.27, and 0.32 CNY for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [4]. - The report suggests that the current operational challenges are reflected in the stock price, and the anticipated recovery of Nike and Adidas could lead to significant stock price appreciation [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to realize benefits from its transformation and upgrade, highlighting its high dividend value [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in shareholder profit for 2024, estimated between HKD 2.8 billion to HKD 3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 53% to 63% [7] - The profit growth is primarily driven by the confirmation of land exchange tax benefits from the South China logistics park transformation project, successful inclusion of two logistics port projects into public REITs, and a reduction in foreign exchange losses due to optimized borrowing currency structure [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: HKD 15,529.3 million - 2023: HKD 20,523.8 million (32.2% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 14,842.7 million (-27.7% YoY decline) - 2025E: HKD 15,908.7 million (7.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 17,030.8 million (7.1% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2022: HKD 1,253.9 million - 2023: HKD 1,901.6 million (51.7% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 2,945.5 million (54.9% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 4,003.9 million (35.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 4,021.8 million (0.4% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from approximately 40% (2013-2016) to around 50% (2017-2023), totaling HKD 12.4 billion in dividends during that period [7] Market Performance - The company is expected to return to a value range due to its high dividend yield, projected at approximately 8.2%, 11.2%, and 11.3% for 2024-2026 [7] - The transformation project of the South China logistics park is entering a realization phase, with land preparation providing profit increments [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was below expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA margin declining by 3.6 percentage points. The net revenue for Q4 2024 was $1.19 billion, aligning with market expectations, and the overall recovery to 76.5% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The company anticipates a gradual decrease in average daily operating expenses to $3 million in 1H25, following a peak of $3.2 million in Q4 2024 due to increased promotional activities and employee compensation [6] - The company expects to maintain its market share and has seen a 17% year-on-year increase in property foot traffic during the Chinese New Year period [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of HKD 36.62 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24%. Adjusted property EBITDA is projected at HKD 9.47 billion, reflecting a 26.2% increase [1][7] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiples of 7.2, 6.0, and 5.5 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7] - The target price is set at HKD 6.6, with net income forecasts of HKD 36.62 billion, HKD 40.24 billion, and HKD 42.52 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - AMER reported a revenue of $5.18 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with an adjusted net profit of $240 million, recovering from a loss of $340 million the previous year [2][4]. - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of $1.64 billion, up 23.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of $90 million, recovering from a loss of $120 million [2][4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 13% to 15% for 2025, with an adjusted operating profit margin projected between 11.5% and 12% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - By product category, revenue for Technical Apparel, Outdoor Performance, and Ball & Racquet increased by 36%, 10%, and 4% respectively, reaching $2.19 billion, $1.84 billion, and $1.15 billion [7]. - By region, revenue growth was strongest in Greater China (+54%) and Asia Pacific (+46%), while the Americas saw a decline of 13% [7]. - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue grew by 43% to $2.27 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by 4% to $2.92 billion [7]. Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 margin at 13.6%, up 3.3 percentage points [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 12 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 15%, and 11% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for New World Development (00017.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue, with fair value changes eroding profits. The financial condition remains stable, and land reserves are sufficient. The profit forecast for FY2025-2027 is maintained, with expected net profits of HKD 370 million, HKD 600 million, and HKD 860 million, respectively, corresponding to EPS of HKD 0.15, HKD 0.24, and HKD 0.34. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 36.3, 22.6, and 15.6 times [5][6]. Revenue Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 16.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Core operating profit was HKD 4.42 billion, down 18% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of HKD 66.33 billion, primarily due to fair value changes in property projects eroding profits by HKD 49.5 billion [6][7]. Property Development - The property development revenue increased to HKD 8.38 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.27%. Revenue from property development in Hong Kong was HKD 1.73 billion, up 39.2%, while revenue from mainland property development was HKD 6.64 billion, up 20.9%. The unrecognized contract sales amount in Hong Kong was HKD 12.32 billion, and in mainland China, it was HKD 8.3 billion, expected to be recognized in the second half of FY2025 and FY2026 [7][8]. Property Investment - The property investment revenue slightly decreased to HKD 2.56 billion, down 4.31% year-on-year. The revenue from Hong Kong was HKD 1.62 billion, and from mainland China was HKD 0.94 billion. The K11 division's performance increased by 5% year-on-year. Upcoming projects K11 ECOAST and Guangzhou Hanxi K11 Select are set to open in 2025 [8]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company had total assets of HKD 445.187 billion for FY2025E, with a net debt ratio of 57.5%. The cash and bank deposits amounted to HKD 22 billion, with available bank loans of HKD 12 billion. The short-term debt decreased by HKD 9.4 billion year-on-year [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][4]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile is advancing its smart driving capabilities through partnerships, launching the "Qianli Haohang" intelligent driving system, which will be integrated into new and updated models [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its electric vehicle lineup, with the new E8 model priced between 149,800 and 198,800 RMB, expected to drive demand [2]. - The integration of the LEVC Geely Yizhen brand into the Geely Galaxy brand aims to streamline operations and improve efficiency [2]. Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 16.42 billion, 14.10 billion, and 17.45 billion RMB respectively, with EPS of 1.63, 1.40, and 1.73 RMB [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 224.78 billion, 289.69 billion, and 338.83 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.4%, 28.9%, and 17.0% [3][6]. - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a projected growth rate of 209.3% [3]. Product Development - The "Qianli Haohang" system will feature various levels of intelligent driving capabilities, with the H1 model supporting highway NOA and automatic parking, while the H9 model will offer advanced L3 architecture [1]. - The new Galaxy series models will be equipped with the H1 system, with future models expected to adopt the H9 system [2]. Market Positioning - The report suggests that Geely's focus on smart technology and electric vehicles will enhance its market position and drive sales growth [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile (175 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of 18.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 3.4% from the closing price of 17.90 HKD as of March 3, 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - Geely's AI Smart Technology Conference marked 2025 as the "Year of AI+Car," signifying a shift from "Car+AI" to "AI+Car," focusing on AI as the core of automotive transformation [2]. - The launch of the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which includes five versions (H1 to H9) with capabilities ranging from basic assistance to full L3 autonomous driving, aims for mass production in the year [2]. - Geely's strategy emphasizes "safety equity," aiming to democratize high-level intelligent driving across all vehicle price segments, contrasting with competitors like BYD and Changan [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Intelligent Driving - Geely's new intelligent driving system, "Qianli Haohan," will be integrated into models like the Galaxy and China Star, with the H9 version being the first L3 autonomous driving solution ready for mass production [2]. - The system boasts a minimum of 100 TOPS computing power for the H1 version, with the H3 version set to feature urban driving capabilities [2]. Technological Trends - The conference highlighted three key technological trends: superhuman-machine interaction, integration of autonomous driving with execution, and the elevation of connected vehicle models [2]. - Collaborations with partners like Jieli Technology aim to enhance data generation for extreme driving scenarios and improve voice interaction experiences [2]. New Model Launches - The 2025 Galaxy E8 was launched with a promotional price range of 149,800 to 198,800 RMB, which is 16,000 RMB lower than the previous model [2]. - The new model features advanced technology, including a 45-inch 8K display and a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, enhancing the user experience [2]. Competitive Positioning - Geely's strategic focus on in-house capabilities aims to reduce reliance on external suppliers, enhancing its competitive edge in the intelligent vehicle market [2]. - The company plans to leverage its Agent OS cockpit operating system for cross-domain collaboration and personalized experiences [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) with a target price of HK$44.00, representing a potential upside of 28% from the current price of HK$34.30 [2][9]. Core Insights - The new president, Dr. Bai Peng, has a solid background in IDM and foundry sectors, and he aims to enhance performance and efficiency by migrating some products to more advanced processes [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the "China for China" strategy, competitive pricing compared to overseas peers, and the gradual ramp-up of its new 12-inch production line in Wuxi [7]. - The integration of Huahong's subsidiary, Huali Microelectronics, is anticipated to bring significant operational improvements and potential profit increases [7]. - Despite a slight increase in average selling prices (ASP), strong demand driven by consumer electronics is expected to continue into the first half of 2025 [8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 5% and 6% respectively due to pricing pressures, but the overall growth strategy remains intact [8][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Adjustments - The target price has been raised from HK$30.40 to HK$44.00, reflecting a revised P/B multiple of 1.5x for 2025 [9][13]. - The 2025E EPS has been adjusted down from US$0.12 to US$0.09, a decrease of 22% [3][11]. - Revenue estimates for 2025E and 2026E have been reduced to US$2,339 million and US$2,770 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17% and 18% [11]. Valuation - The report emphasizes a P/B valuation approach, with the target P/B multiple increased to 1.5x, indicating a more optimistic outlook for Huahong's industry positioning and technology portfolio [13][14]. - The estimated book value per share for 2025 is projected at US$3.72, leading to a target price of HK$44.00 [14]. Market Comparison - Huahong's current P/B ratio of 1.2x is at a discount compared to its peers, such as UMC at 1.7x and SMIC at 2.5x, highlighting its valuation attractiveness [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$208.22, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$166.70 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach US$3.81 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.96%. The GAAP net loss is expected to narrow to US$568 million, a 53% improvement compared to the previous year [1]. - Global sales of the drug Zepzelca are anticipated to drive strong growth, with sales reaching US$2.6 billion in 2024, a 104.9% increase year-on-year. The U.S. market sales are expected to grow by 106.3% to US$2 billion, while European sales are projected to increase by 194% to US$359 million [2]. - The company is optimistic about 2025, forecasting revenue between US$4.9 billion and US$5.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 29% to 39%, and aims to achieve operational breakeven [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial data for the years 2022 to 2026 shows a significant increase in revenue, with projections of US$4.9 billion in 2025 and US$5.8 billion in 2026. The gross profit is expected to rise to US$3.86 billion in 2025 [4]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an expected net income of US$137 million, compared to a loss of US$554 million in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of US$0.40 in 2024 to a profit of US$0.10 in 2025 [4].