Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 186.3 HKD (171.8 CNY) based on a projected adjusted PS of 2.4x for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" Season 6 has exceeded expectations, which is expected to continue driving high growth in gaming revenue. Additionally, improvements in advertising supply-side traffic and user demographics are anticipated to enhance monetization capabilities [3][6]. - The total revenue for Q4 2024 reached 77.3 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.87%. The growth was primarily driven by advertising and gaming businesses [6][7]. - The company expects revenues for 2024 to be 26.83 billion CNY, with projections of 30.23 billion CNY and 32.44 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 21,899 million CNY in 2022, with a projected increase to 22,528 million CNY in 2023 and further growth to 26,832 million CNY in 2024 [4][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 32.70% in 2024 to 40.06% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 848 million CNY, with an EPS of 2.01 CNY [4][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 23.9 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and increased advertising efficiency [6][7]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 reached 18.0 billion CNY, a significant increase of 79% year-over-year, largely due to the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][7]. - Live streaming and value-added services (VAS) generated 30.8 billion CNY in Q4 2024, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 186.3 HKD (171.8 CNY) based on a projected adjusted PS of 2.4x for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" Season 6 has exceeded expectations, which is expected to continue driving high growth in gaming revenue. Additionally, improvements in advertising supply-side traffic and user demographics are anticipated to enhance monetization capabilities [3][6]. - The company's total revenue for Q4 2024 reached 77.3 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.87%. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 36%, up 9.9 percentage points year-over-year [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 26.832 billion CNY in 2024, 30.230 billion CNY in 2025, and 32.444 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 19.10%, 12.67%, and 7.33% [4][11]. - The company expects a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.53 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a significant recovery from a net loss of 5.6 billion CNY in the same period last year [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 23.9 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and increased advertising efficiency. The daily active users (DAU) reached 103 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio of 30.29% [6][7]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 18.0 billion CNY, a 79% increase year-over-year, primarily due to the contribution from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][7]. Cost and Profitability - The company's operating expenses for Q4 2024 included sales expenses of 12.37 billion CNY, management expenses of 5.06 billion CNY, and R&D expenses of 9.19 billion CNY, with R&D expenses decreasing by 30.74% year-over-year [6][7]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is expected to be 785 million CNY, with a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss of 1.344 billion CNY [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [8]. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the report anticipates that a series of connectivity policies will enhance the basic conditions for recovery in the capital market, leading to increased liquidity and overall market activity and valuation for the Hong Kong stock market [2][6]. - The company achieved revenue and other income of HKD 223.74 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 130.50 billion, up 10.0% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, Hong Kong Exchanges reported a revenue of HKD 223.74 billion, a 9.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 130.50 billion, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year growth. In Q4 2024, the net profit increased by 45.55% and 20.19% on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, respectively [6][10]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows that trading and trading system usage fees, listing fees, settlement and clearing fees, and other income have varied growth rates, with trading fees increasing by 18.22% and settlement fees by 21.42% [6][10]. Market Activity - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity across various markets, with the average daily turnover in the stock market rising by 28.8% year-on-year and the average daily turnover in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect increasing by 38.6% [6][10]. - The report notes that the number of new listings increased, with 71 new companies listed in 2024, raising a total of HKD 23.2 billion, despite a slight decline in listing fees [6][10]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will achieve revenue and other income of HKD 252.28 billion, HKD 275.24 billion, and HKD 296.54 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 149.92 billion, HKD 164.50 billion, and HKD 177.93 billion for the same years [2][10]. - Corresponding PE ratios are forecasted to be 30.87, 28.13, and 26.01 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 20.60, indicating a potential upside of 37.3% from the current price of HKD 15.00 [1][6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 31.56 billion for FY25H1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a net profit of HKD 6.04 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year. The gross profit margin stood at 65.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [4][8]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.45 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 36% [4][8]. - The company has seen an increase in inventory by 32.1%, but inventory turnover remains healthy, with a cash cycle of 55.6 days [4][12]. - The total number of stores has increased to 2,126, with a net addition of 101 stores during the period [5][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25H1, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 31.56 billion, a gross profit of HKD 20.56 billion, and a net profit of HKD 6.04 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.0% and 5.5% [4][8][9]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mature brand JNBY grew by 3.6%, while emerging brands surged by 147.3% due to the acquisition of the BLOCK brand [4][9]. Inventory and Store Operations - Inventory levels increased by 32.1%, with finished goods up by 27.0%. The inventory turnover days were recorded at 144.5 days, which is manageable [12][13]. - The company opened 101 new stores, bringing the total to 2,126, with a focus on expanding in second to fourth-tier cities [12][13]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The company has over 9.5 million followers across social media platforms, with active members totaling 545,000. Members who spent over HKD 5,000 annually account for over 60% of offline retail sales [12][13]. - The company continues to maintain a robust membership system, which is crucial for sustaining cash flow amid retail fluctuations [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company is one of the top global automotive parts suppliers, with a strong traditional business that supports performance growth. It has expanded into battery boxes, smart exteriors, and chassis components, accelerating its transition to electric and intelligent vehicles [4][9]. - Emerging businesses such as robotics, low-altitude flight, and automotive wireless charging are market hotspots, with new products expected to contribute to revenue by 2025 or 2026 [4]. - The company is expected to resume dividend payments after a hiatus in 2023 due to high capital expenditures and debt levels. It is transitioning from an expansion phase to a harvesting phase, which will improve cash flow and allow for stock buybacks [4]. - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.2 billion, 2.51 billion, and 3.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.3x, 9.9x, and 7.9x, indicating a currently low valuation [4]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, with a global presence and a workforce of over 20,000 employees across 77 factories and offices in 14 countries [9][10]. - It is the largest supplier of battery boxes and body structure components globally and a leading supplier of automotive exterior parts [9]. Financial Performance - The company has shown resilient revenue growth since its listing in 2005, with a 13.8% year-on-year increase in revenue to 11.09 billion in the first half of 2024, and a 20.4% increase in net profit to 1.07 billion [18][22]. - The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved slightly in the first half of 2024, with figures of 28.5% and 9.7%, respectively [22]. Revenue Structure - In the first half of 2024, domestic revenue was 4.53 billion, accounting for 40.8% of total revenue, while overseas revenue was 6.57 billion, making up 59.2% [26]. - The customer base is well-balanced, with European customers accounting for 42%, American customers 19%, Chinese customers 15%, and Japanese customers 21% [26]. Traditional Business Development - Traditional businesses, including metal trims, plastic parts, and aluminum components, accounted for 67% of revenue in the first half of 2024, providing a solid foundation for ongoing development [29]. - The company has engaged in forward-looking R&D and product layout, enhancing the value of its offerings [29]. Emerging Business Opportunities - The company has a significant order backlog of 236 billion, with over 125 billion in battery box orders, representing more than 53% of total orders [31]. - The company is actively developing products in the robotics sector, including structural components and joint assemblies, and is also exploring low-altitude flight technologies [33][35]. Valuation - The report compares the company to similar businesses in the automotive parts and battery box sectors, suggesting a low current valuation with projected P/E ratios indicating potential for growth [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations and the impact of AI technology on cost reduction and efficiency [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,012 million - 2024E: RMB 7,695 million - 2025E: RMB 7,882 million - 2026E: RMB 8,220 million - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1,139 million, with a projected increase to RMB 1,445 million in 2025 and RMB 1,568 million in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report notes a decrease in the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the 2025 adjusted net profit expectation to RMB 14 billion, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, leading to a target price of HKD 28 [5][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.14 for 2024, increasing to RMB 1.41 in 2025 and RMB 1.54 in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 for 2024, decreasing to 16.5 in 2025 and 15.2 in 2026 [3][8][13].

上 市 公 司 -35% 15% 65% 03/04 04/04 05/04 06/04 07/04 08/04 09/04 10/04 11/04 12/04 01/04 02/04 HSCEI 上美股份 资料来源：Bloomberg 美容护理 2025 年 03 月 04 日 上美股份 (02145) —— 业绩符合预期，看好多渠道拓展及多品牌增长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 03 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 37.45 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8419.69 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 56.95/29.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 149.06 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 206.27 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0840 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王盼 (8621) ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) with a target price of 176.66 HKD, compared to the current price of 130.40 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of Alibaba Cloud in the context of a new phase of AI growth in China, highlighting its leading position in the public cloud market and its strategic advantages [5][10]. - The report discusses the shift in enterprise demand towards integrated IaaS+PaaS solutions driven by the AI wave, suggesting that this trend will enhance the overall cloud market growth [9][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Cloud Market Landscape - The public cloud market in China is experiencing a second growth cycle driven by IaaS+PaaS integration, with public cloud revenue accounting for 74% of the total cloud market in 2023, growing by 40% year-on-year [5][19]. - IaaS remains the largest segment, while PaaS is the fastest-growing, indicating a shift in enterprise preferences towards more comprehensive cloud solutions [19][20]. Alibaba Cloud's Competitive Position - Alibaba Cloud is the leading public cloud service provider in China, with significant market shares in both IaaS and PaaS, and ranks second globally in terms of product and strategic capabilities [10][38]. - The company has built a deep competitive moat through its self-developed technology stack and long-term strategic investments, making it a key player in the "AI + Cloud" development landscape [10][49]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts Alibaba's total revenue to reach 941.17 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%, and adjusted net profit expected to grow by 11.4% to 157.48 billion CNY [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud is showing a quarterly improvement, indicating a positive trend in profitability as AI-related revenues accelerate [5][11]. Investment Logic - The report suggests that the core of Alibaba's valuation recovery is centered around the re-evaluation of its cloud business, with future sustainability dependent on the performance of its core e-commerce business and the growth of AI-related cloud services [11][12]. - The SOTP valuation method indicates a target market value of 30,558 billion CNY for FY26, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14/12 times for FY26-27 adjusted net profit [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of 18.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 3.4% from the closing price of 17.90 HKD as of March 3, 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's AI Smart Technology Conference marked the beginning of the "AI+Car" era, transitioning from "Car+AI" to "AI+Car," emphasizing AI as the core of automotive transformation [2]. - The company introduced the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which includes five versions (H1 to H9) that cover functionalities from basic assistance to full-scenario L3 autonomous driving, with plans for mass production in the current year [2]. - Geely aims to democratize high-level intelligent driving capabilities across all price segments, promoting the concept of "safety equality" [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Technology Strategy - The report highlights three technological trends presented by Qianli Technology's chairman: superhuman-machine interaction, integration of autonomous driving and execution, and the elevation of connected vehicle models [2]. - Geely's collaboration with partners like Jiyue Xingchen aims to enhance AI applications and reduce barriers for developers through an open-source strategy [2]. Product Launches - The 2025 Geely Galaxy E8 was officially launched with a promotional price range of 149,800 to 198,800 RMB, which is 16,000 RMB lower than the previous model [2]. - The new model features advanced technology, including a 45-inch 8K display and a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, along with an upgraded intelligent driving perception system [2]. Competitive Positioning - Geely's recent announcements are seen as a response to competitors like BYD and Changan, emphasizing its systematic capabilities and platform advantages while minimizing reliance on external suppliers [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Geely is advancing its smart driving capabilities through partnerships, launching the "Qianli Haohang" intelligent driving system, which will be integrated into new and updated models, enhancing product sales and valuation [1][2]. - The introduction of the new E8 electric sedan and the Starry 8 hybrid sedan is expected to drive demand, with promotional pricing strategies in place [2]. - The upgrade of the Galaxy series into the Geely Galaxy brand aims to streamline operations and improve overall efficiency within the group [2]. Financial Forecasts - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 16.42 billion, 14.10 billion, and 17.45 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.63, 1.40, and 1.73 RMB [3][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 179.20 billion RMB in 2023 to 338.83 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.9% [3][6]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 209.3% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 14.1% in 2025, and a rebound of 23.7% in 2026 [3][6]. Product Development - The "Qianli Haohang" intelligent driving system will feature multiple levels of capabilities, including advanced parking and full-scene driving support, with a focus on affordability for high-end solutions [1]. - The new models, including the E8 and Starry 8, are equipped with the latest technology and are priced competitively to stimulate market interest [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The integration of the LEVC Geely Yizhen brand into the Galaxy series is part of a broader strategy to enhance brand focus and operational synergy [2]. - The company is positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, aligning with industry trends towards sustainability and innovation [2].