Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for 3QFY25 reached 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by significant contributions from Taobao, AIDC, cloud intelligence group, and other segments [1][10] - The adjusted EBITA margin was 19.6%, with a non-GAAP net profit of 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase primarily due to changes in equity investments [1][10] - The company is focusing on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core business areas while continuing to reduce costs in non-core operations [4][23] Summary by Sections Taobao Group - Taobao Group's revenue for the quarter was 136.1 billion yuan, up 5% year-over-year, with a customer management revenue (CMR) growth of 9% driven by an increase in GMV and take rate [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao reached 44.9%, a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, indicating improved monetization strategies [14] Cloud Computing - The cloud business revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [3][16] - Alibaba Cloud holds a 33% market share in the domestic cloud service market and is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditures (CAPEX) to support AI initiatives, with future CAPEX projected to exceed the total of the past ten years [3][19] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027 have been adjusted to 997.4 billion, 1,096.6 billion, and 1,205.5 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 1.1%, 1.5%, and 2.0% respectively [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 151.3 billion, 165.7 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with adjustments of 2.0%, 2.2%, and 1.1% respectively [4][23] Market Position - Alibaba's strategy emphasizes user-centric approaches and AI-driven growth, with ongoing efforts to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [23] - The company is also exploring various AI application scenarios across its ecosystem, including e-commerce, consumer interaction, and enterprise solutions [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.05 to 1.15 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 114.5% to 135%. The net profit is projected to be between 180 to 200 million RMB, indicating a growth of 100.3% to 122.5% [1]. - The company has successfully transformed its educational offerings, focusing on quality and the integration of AI technology to enhance both product and service quality [2][3]. - The introduction of various innovative educational programs has significantly increased enrollment and class hours compared to the previous year, reflecting strong market acceptance [1][3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 1.1 billion RMB, 2 billion RMB, and 2.55 billion RMB respectively, with previous estimates being lower [4]. - The net profit estimates for the same period are revised to 190 million RMB, 320 million RMB, and 430 million RMB, also higher than previous projections [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.23 RMB, 0.38 RMB, and 0.51 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 8x, and 6x [4].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 卓越教育集团（03978） 证券研究报告 业绩盈喜，教培景气延续 公司发布 2024 年度盈利预告 预计 2024 年收入 10.5~11.5 亿元，同比增长 114.5%~135%，净利润 1.8~2.0 亿元，同比增长 100.3%~122.5%。 2024 年度公司素质化转型取得卓越成效，相关产品深受家长及学生的认 可，招生人次、辅导课时较 2023 年同期有较大幅度的增长。同时，公司积 极推广人工智能技术在业务及管理层面的应用，不仅提升产品及服务质量， 经营管理效率也得到较大的提升。 全面接入 Deepseek R1 公司将持续探索 AI+教育的落地场景，充分发挥线下教育的独特优势，不 断提升教育质量和服务水平。 2025 年 2 月 14 号，卓越教育鲸准教"青椒助教"应用全面升级，接入 Deepseek R1。升级后的"青椒助教"在逻辑性、内容精准度等方面表现出 色，无论是解析综合题型还是创新教学策略，都能游刃有余。 同时，公司将进一步深化 AI 技术在教学中的应用，通过"青椒助教"等 一系列工具，为老师提供更强大的教学支持，帮助学生更好地学习和成长。 同时，用 Ai ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the full year 2024 reached HKD 31.39 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was HKD 9.06 billion, up 25.2% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 28.9%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a market share of approximately 15%, with projected revenues of HKD 33.4 billion and HKD 35.08 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.4% and 5.0% [5][7]. - The report highlights a steady growth in Q4 2024, with revenues of HKD 7.92 billion, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.13 billion, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: HKD 24.68 billion - 2024E: HKD 31.39 billion (27.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 33.4 billion (6.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 35.08 billion (5.0% YoY growth) [7] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: - 2023A: HKD 7.24 billion - 2024E: HKD 9.06 billion (25.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 9.61 billion (6.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 10.1 billion (5.0% YoY growth) [7] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: HKD 2.64 billion - 2024E: HKD 4.5 billion (70.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 5.35 billion (18.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 6.1 billion (14.1% YoY growth) [7] - **EBITDA Margin**: - 2023A: 29.3% - 2024E: 28.9% - 2025E: 28.8% - 2026E: 28.8% [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 69.4 HKD cents - 2024E: 118.5 HKD cents - 2025E: 140.8 HKD cents - 2026E: 160.6 HKD cents [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable era, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 7.734 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%. The Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 0.452 billion CNY, marking a turnaround to profitability for the first time in GAAP quarterly results. For the full year, revenue was 26.832 billion CNY, up 19% year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net loss narrowing to 0.039 billion CNY, a 99% improvement year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance - Gross margin has been on an upward trend for 10 consecutive quarters, reaching 36.1% in Q4 2024, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses (advertising and gaming) and optimized operating costs. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased to 16%, 6.5%, and 11.9% respectively [4]. - The company generated a healthy operating cash flow of 6.015 billion CNY for the year, indicating a stable positive cash flow trend [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue grew rapidly, with Q4 revenue of 2.389 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 31% of total revenue. For the full year, advertising revenue reached 8.189 billion CNY, up 28% year-on-year [4]. - Gaming revenue saw significant growth, with Q4 revenue of 1.798 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 79%, driven by the success of the SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [5]. - Value-added services and IP ecosystem revenue reached 3.083 billion CNY in Q4, an 8% year-on-year increase, with a total of 22.7 million premium members [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.684 billion CNY, 33.494 billion CNY, and 36.140 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 1.972 billion CNY, 3.143 billion CNY, and 3.975 billion CNY for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 30.50, 19.14, and 15.13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to China Cinda (01359.HK) [6] Core Views - China Cinda is a comprehensive financial group focused on non-performing asset management, with its business segments including non-performing asset operations and financial services [15][19] - The company has experienced stable asset size but declining revenue and net profit in recent years, with total assets at 1.58 trillion yuan and net profit of 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [20][19] - The non-performing asset management segment accounted for 53% of revenue in the first half of 2024, while financial services contributed 48% [19] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Cinda, established in 1999, primarily engages in non-performing asset management and has undergone a commercial transformation since 2004 [15] - The company operates through various subsidiaries, including banks, securities, and trust companies, with a workforce of approximately 14,000 [15] Non-Performing Asset Business - The non-performing asset management business has returned to its core operations, with stable acquisition and operational yields expected to benefit from economic recovery [2][29] - The company has reduced its acquisition and restructuring business scale, focusing on core operations [29][33] Financial Services Business - China Cinda has a complete range of financial service licenses through its subsidiaries, covering banking, securities, futures, public funds, trusts, and leasing [47] - The financial services segment has shown a steady increase in revenue contribution, with South Commercial Bank facing rising non-performing loan ratios [47][48] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.06, 0.11, and 0.12 yuan [3][72] - The estimated reasonable valuation ranges from 1.27 to 1.62 HKD, indicating a potential premium of 2% to 30% over the current stock price [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, excluding the impact of notable items. The forecast for 2025 includes a net interest income of approximately $42 billion from banking operations, with expected credit loss provisions ranging from 30 to 40 basis points of average loan balances. The company plans to maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio between 14% and 14.5% and a target payout ratio of 50% for 2025. Additionally, a share buyback plan of up to $2 billion is expected to be completed before the announcement of the first quarter 2025 results [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be $65.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of -0.3%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be $22.9 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-over-year. The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at $1.24, with a dividend per share of $0.87 [5][6]. - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.56% for 2024, a decrease of 10 basis points from 2023, with net interest income of $43.7 billion, down $4 billion from the previous year. The expected credit losses for 2024 are projected at $3.4 billion, equivalent to 36 basis points of average loan balances, while operating expenses are expected to increase by 3% to $33 billion [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market indices [6]. Core Insights - The company, SMIC, has shown steady growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time. The revenue for Q4 2024 is projected to be $2.207 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the previously indicated range of 18%-20%. This improvement is attributed to favorable product mix and structure [3][4]. - The company anticipates a strong demand for replenishment in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic substitution projects entering mass production and government subsidy policies [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue for 2023 is estimated at $6.322 billion, with projections of $8.030 billion in 2024, $9.678 billion in 2025, and $11.589 billion in 2026, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2024 to 2026 [3][4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline to $493 million in 2024, before recovering to $774 million in 2025 and $1.027 billion in 2026 [3][4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to be 19.26% in 2023, decreasing to 18.03% in 2024, before stabilizing at 19.26% in 2025 and increasing to 20.96% in 2026 [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company’s 8-inch wafer monthly production capacity is projected to be 948,000 wafers in Q4 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.5% [3][4]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products is expected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, although a decline in ASP is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased market supply [3][4]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 are estimated at $7.326 billion, with depreciation expenses expected to rise by approximately 20% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 15% compared to the relevant market index [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time. The revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at $2.207 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is anticipated to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the expected range of 18%-20% [3][4]. - The company is optimistic about the impact of national subsidy policies starting January 2025, which are expected to stimulate demand for consumer electronics, particularly smartphones [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue is expected to grow from $6.322 billion in 2023 to $11.589 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 27%, 21%, and 20% respectively [3][4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from $903 million in 2023 to $493 million in 2024, before recovering to $1.027 billion by 2026 [3][4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.26% in 2023, 18.03% in 2024, and improving to 20.96% by 2026 [3][4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be $0.11 in 2023, dropping to $0.06 in 2024, and then increasing to $0.13 by 2026 [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company’s 8-inch wafer monthly production is expected to reach 948,000 units in Q4 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.5% [3][4]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products is projected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, although a decline in ASP is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased market supply [3][4]. - Capital expenditures are expected to remain stable in 2025, with depreciation expenses projected to increase by approximately 20% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, excluding the impact of notable items. The forecast for net interest income from banking operations in 2025 is approximately $42 billion, with expected credit loss provisions ranging from 30 to 40 basis points of average loans [4][5] - The company plans to maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio between 14% and 14.5% and a target payout ratio of 50% for 2025. A share buyback plan of up to $2 billion is expected to be completed before the announcement of Q1 2025 results [4][5] - The company has repurchased a total of $20 billion in shares between 2023 and 2024, representing about 11% of shares outstanding as of the end of 2022 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be $65.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of -0.3%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be $22.9 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-on-year [5][6] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at $1.24, with dividends per share projected at $0.87 [5][6] - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.56% for 2024, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to 2023, with net interest income of $43.7 billion, down $4 billion year-on-year [4][5]