Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for XPeng Motors [4][40]. Core Views - XPeng Motors achieved a revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The total sales volume reached 46,533 units, up 16.3% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is experiencing a positive trend in its product cycle, with the launch of new models like the P7+ contributing to sales growth. The P7+ received over 31,000 pre-orders on its launch day [1][24][29]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 15.3%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -17.9% [1][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 46.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 53%. The net profit is expected to be -5.977 billion yuan [2][40]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.22%, improving by 16.3 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The forecast for net profit shows a gradual improvement, with expectations of -6 billion yuan in 2024, -1.6 billion yuan in 2025, and a positive 2.7 billion yuan in 2026 [40]. Sales and Market Performance - XPeng's total sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 98,561 units, a 21% increase year-on-year. The company expects Q4 2024 deliveries to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, marking an annual increase of approximately 44.6% to 51.3% [20][40]. - The company has optimized its sales network, with 639 stores covering 206 cities and 1,557 self-operated charging stations as of September 30, 2024 [20]. Product Development and Innovation - The P7+ model features advanced AI driving capabilities and is equipped with the latest self-developed technologies, including the AI Tianji 5.4.0 system [29][36]. - XPeng's AI technology includes a comprehensive self-developed stack, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [24][29]. Future Outlook - The report maintains its profit forecast, expecting continued growth driven by new models like the Mona M03 and P7+, and the implementation of a pure visual solution for high-level autonomous driving [40].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Gas Holdings Limited (00384.HK) [1]. Core Views - China Gas is positioned as a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong market share and potential for profit recovery. The company has diversified its operations to include liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and value-added services, transitioning into a comprehensive energy service provider [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions, which will enhance its profitability. The gross margin is projected to recover, with a forecasted increase in net profit for FY2025 to FY2027 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in 2002 and listed in the same year, China Gas has developed a robust urban gas distribution network, accounting for approximately 5.9% of national consumption with a sales volume of 23.5 billion cubic meters in FY2023/24 [1][3]. - The company has shifted from being solely a gas supplier to a comprehensive energy service provider, integrating various energy solutions including LPG, LNG, and renewable energy services [3][4]. 2. Energy Business - The report highlights a recovery in urban gas pricing, with the company’s gross margin increasing by 0.08 CNY per cubic meter in FY2023/24. The company has signed long-term contracts for LNG at lower prices, enhancing its cost advantages [2][4]. - The company has improved its customer penetration rate to 71% among existing clients, with a total of 54.4 million urban users as of FY2023/24 [2]. 3. Value-Added Services and Comprehensive Energy Solutions - China Gas is actively expanding its value-added services, including the "Yipinhui" initiative, which aims to leverage its existing customer base for new revenue streams. The company has signed contracts with over 50 external gas clients [3]. - The company is also focusing on green energy solutions, including distributed solar energy projects and carbon management services, positioning itself as a green city operator [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts net profits of 4.017 billion HKD, 4.464 billion HKD, and 4.914 billion HKD for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 11%, and 10% [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 8.73, 7.86, and 7.14 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of **32.91 HKD**, representing a **17.54%** upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone, IoT, and automotive businesses are entering a positive growth cycle, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and strong cash reserves [2] - The company achieved **925 billion RMB** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **30.5% YoY increase**, with adjusted net profit reaching **63 billion RMB**, up **18.7% YoY** [2] - Cash reserves stood at **1516 billion RMB**, reflecting a **9.7% YoY growth** [2] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is showing initial success in the high-end market, with revenue reaching **828 billion RMB**, a **16.8% YoY increase** [2] - Shipments grew **3.1% YoY** to **431 million units**, driven by increased domestic high-end smartphone shipments and a **10.6% YoY increase in ASP** to **1102 RMB** [2] - The newly launched Xiaomi 15 series achieved strong sales, with expectations of further competitiveness in the **4000-6000 RMB price segment** [2] IoT Business - IoT revenue reached **261 billion RMB**, a **26.3% YoY increase**, with gross margin hitting a record high of **20.8%**, up **2.9 percentage points YoY** [2] - Strong performance in domestic smart home appliances and global tablet/wearable businesses is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidies and holiday promotions [2] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew **9.1% YoY** to **85 billion RMB**, with gross margin improving **3.1 percentage points YoY** to **77.5%** [2] - Global MAUs reached **686 million**, a **10.1% YoY increase**, with overseas internet services revenue growing **18.3% YoY** to **27 billion RMB** [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive business delivered **39,790 units** in Q3 2024, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at **10,000 units** [2] - The company aims to achieve **200,000 units** in annual deliveries, with gross margin improving **1.7 percentage points YoY** to **17.1%** [2] - The SU7 Ultra model, with an ASP of **239,000 RMB**, is expected to drive profitability as scale expands and promotional costs decrease [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **355.9 billion RMB** in 2024 to **518.4 billion RMB** in 2026, with net profit increasing from **19.9 billion RMB** to **31.8 billion RMB** over the same period [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from **25.1 billion RMB** in 2024 to **37.1 billion RMB** in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price of **32.91 HKD** is based on **18x PE** for core businesses and **12x PS** for the automotive segment, implying a **17.54% upside** [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health (06618.HK) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of 28.6 HKD [1]. Core Views - JD Health reported a revenue of 13.302 billion HKD for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.8% from 11.585 billion HKD [1]. - The operating profit for Q3 2024 reached 552 million HKD, a significant increase of 216.0% year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS operating profit of 862 million HKD, up 15.7% [1]. - The company is expanding its online medical insurance services, having launched online payment services in 10 cities, and has connected nearly 2,000 retail pharmacies, covering over 100 million people [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, JD Health achieved a revenue of 13.302 billion HKD, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit of 552 million HKD, which is a 216.0% increase year-on-year, resulting in an operating profit margin of 4.1%, up 2.6 percentage points [1]. Operational Developments - The company has introduced innovative service models and has launched online medical insurance payment services in 12 cities as of September 30, 2024, with a total of nearly 2,000 pharmacies connected [1]. - JD Health has also enhanced its online medical services by launching over 100 home testing services and 27 home care services across 14 cities, improving the one-stop service experience [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share as consumer health awareness rises and online medical insurance services expand [1]. - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, JD Health saw significant growth in various health product categories, with a 140% year-on-year increase in sales for products targeting the elderly [1]. - Strategic partnerships with brands aim for a 300% increase in sales over the next three years, indicating a focus on diversifying health consumption [1]. Investment Outlook - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 58.5 billion, 64.7 billion, and 71.8 billion HKD respectively, with net profit estimates of 4.6 billion, 5.0 billion, and 6.1 billion HKD [1]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's strengthening position as a self-operated pharmaceutical e-commerce platform and its leading supply chain capabilities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [3] Core Insights - The company is undergoing an AI-driven transformation, but its advertising business still requires improvement. The intelligent cloud segment shows steady growth, and the core profits of Baidu remain on an upward trend [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, Baidu reported revenues of 33.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 5.9 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year [4] - Baidu's core revenue reached 26.5 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a slight decline of 0.29% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributed to the core business was 7.54 billion yuan, an increase of 17% year-on-year [4] - Online marketing revenue was 18.8 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, impacted by a weak macro environment. Non-online marketing revenue was 7.7 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by the intelligent cloud business [4] AI and Intelligent Driving Developments - The daily API call volume for the Wenxin large model reached 1.5 billion, with the user base for Wenxin Yiyan reaching 430 million. The intelligent cloud platform has assisted clients in fine-tuning models for 33,000 instances and developing 770,000 enterprise applications [4] - The autonomous driving service "Luo Bo Kuaipao" saw a 20% year-on-year increase in order volume, reaching 988,000 orders in Q3 2024, with a market share exceeding 70% for fully autonomous driving orders [4] iQIYI Performance - iQIYI's revenue in Q3 2024 was 7.2 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 480 million yuan, a decrease of 23% year-on-year. Membership revenue fell by 9% to 4.4 billion yuan, while advertising revenue dropped by 20% to 1.3 billion yuan [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Non-GAAP net profits for Baidu of 26.6 billion yuan, 28.2 billion yuan, and 30.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a Non-GAAP PE of 8.17, 7.71, and 7.04 for the respective years [4]

小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 优于大市 单三季度毛利率同环比双升，新品周期持续向上 2024Q3 小鹏汽车实现营业收入 101 亿元，同比增长 18%。2024Q3 小鹏汽 车的销量为 46,533 辆，同比增长 16.3%，环比增长 54.0%；总收入为 101.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%，环比增长 24.5%；净利润为-18.1 亿元，去年同 期为-38.9 亿元，今年单二季度为-12.8 亿元。拆分来看，1）2024Q3 汽 车销售收入为 88.0 亿元，同比增长 12%，环比增长 29%，同环比增长主 要由于交付量增加所致。2）2024Q3 服务及其他收入为 13.1 亿元，同 比增长 90.7%，环比增长 1.1%，同比增长主要由于与大众进行平台与软 件战略以及电子电气架构技术合作有关的技术研发服务收入增加所致。 研发与经营活动降本增效，毛利率与净利率同比提升。2024Q3，小鹏汽 车的毛利率/净利率分别为 15.3%/-17.9%，分别同比+17.9/+27.7pct， 分别环比+1.3/-2.1pct；研发费用率/销售、行政及一般费用率分别为 16.2%/16.2%，分别同比-3.7/+ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$20.67, representing a 39% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [2][3] - The target price has been revised upward by 17% from the previous target of HK$17.68 [5] Core Views - JD Logistics demonstrated strong profitability in 3Q24, with non-IFRS net profit margin increasing to 5.2% from 1.3% in 3Q23, driven by efficiency improvements despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company's adjusted net profit surged 313% YoY in 3Q24, supported by robust margin expansion, particularly in gross margin [10] - Access to Tmall/Taobao merchants and overseas expansion are identified as two key long-term growth drivers [9][11] - JD Logistics plans to double its self-operated warehousing space for international business by 2025, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region [11] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, with revenue from JD Group and third-party channels increasing by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively [11] - Gross margin improved to 10.6% in 2024E, up from 7.6% in 2023A, reflecting the company's efficiency initiatives [13][20] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E has been revised upward by 36.2%/24.4%/20.4% to RMB 0.93/1.07/1.19 [5][20] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 3.3% in 2024E, up from 2.4% previously forecasted [20] Valuation - The target price of HK$20.67 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [21][22] - JD Logistics is currently trading at a 28.0% discount to the revised target price, with a 2024E P/E of 14.6x and 2025E P/E of 12.6x [21] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry remains highly competitive, but JD Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from its access to Tmall/Taobao platforms, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [11] - The company's international business, though relatively small, is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth with manageable capital expenditure [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock, corresponding to potential upside of 18% and 17% respectively [3][5][7]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to enter a significant year for new product sales, with the introduction of the second brand, ONVO, and the third brand, Firefly, which will enhance the product matrix and broaden price coverage [3][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining the high-end brand positioning of its main brand, NIO, and has reduced promotional efforts to improve profit margins. The gross margin for NIO is projected to continue increasing [3][4]. - Operating leverage is anticipated to manifest gradually, with operating and net losses expected to narrow over the coming quarters [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q3 2023, NIO's gross margin reached 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, driven by cost optimization and improved manufacturing efficiency [4][10]. - The company aims to double its vehicle sales in 2024, with production capacity for the ONVO L60 expected to ramp up to 20,000 units per month by March 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin target for the NIO brand is set to reach 15% in Q4 2023 and gradually increase to 20% in 2024, while the ONVO brand aims for a gross margin of 10% [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 66.1 billion and RMB 102.0 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 54% [6][12]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a sales multiple of 0.8x to NIO's 2025 automotive and other sales, leading to a target price of $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock [5][15]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for NIO is 0.7x, indicating an attractive valuation [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$34.00, reflecting an 18% upside potential from the current price of HK$28.80 [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit surpassing forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by strong IoT revenue and electric vehicle shipments [1][3]. - The management remains optimistic about future expansion, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, where gross margins have improved to 17.1% [1][10]. - The smartphone market outlook is positive, with projected shipment growth of 7% year-on-year in 2025, supported by the strong sales of the Xiaomi 15 series [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Xiaomi reported total revenue of RMB 92.5 billion, a 31% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit of RMB 6.25 billion, reflecting a 4% growth [3][6]. - The smartphone segment generated RMB 47.45 billion in revenue, while the IoT segment contributed RMB 26.1 billion, both showing strong growth [3][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2%-4%, primarily due to higher expected smartphone and electric vehicle shipments [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 27.64 billion, an increase of 2% from previous estimates [9][10]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for valuation, maintaining a target multiple of 28.5 times the 2025 adjusted earnings, reflecting confidence in the smartphone market recovery and Xiaomi's strong position in the electric vehicle sector [10][11]. - The target price adjustment from HK$33.00 to HK$34.00 is based on updated profit forecasts and reflects a potential upside of 18.1% from the current stock price [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 108 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40.8% from the current price of 76.7 HKD [6][14]. Core Insights - The recent surge in popularity of the Labubu IP is expected to drive accelerated revenue growth in Q4 2024, enhancing the company's long-term growth outlook and market confidence [2][3]. - The Monsters series has seen a significant increase in popularity, with a 292% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2024, contributing to 13.7% of total revenue and ranking second among all IPs [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its long-term growth forecast for overseas markets upward, reflecting a more optimistic view of future revenue streams [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from 4,617 million RMB in 2022 to 22,156 million RMB in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate peaking at 96.7% in 2024 [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 476 million RMB in 2022 to 5,547 million RMB in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 140.1% in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 204.9x in 2022 to 17.2x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [5][10].