Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Leapmotor (9863 HK) [8] Core Views - Leapmotor's Q3 2024 results exceeded expectations, with gross margin improvement and record high per-vehicle profitability driven by product mix optimization and economies of scale [1][3][4] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 9 86 billion in Q3 2024, up 74 3% YoY, with net loss narrowing to RMB -6 9 billion [3] - Q3 2024 sales reached 86,000 units, approaching H1 2024 cumulative sales, with monthly sales hitting new highs [3] - Gross margin improved to 8 1% in Q3 2024, up 6 9pct YoY and 5 3pct QoQ, with per-vehicle gross profit reaching RMB 0 9 million, a historical high [4] - The company is entering a strong new product cycle globally, with plans to launch 2-3 new models annually over the next three years [5] Business Performance - Q3 2024 sales increased 94 4% YoY and 61 7% QoQ to 86,000 units, with July-September sales of 22,000, 30,000, and 34,000 units respectively [3] - Revenue per vehicle was RMB 114,000 in Q3 2024, down RMB 13,000 YoY but up RMB 14,000 QoQ due to increased C-series contribution (78 3% of sales) [3] - October 2024 orders exceeded 40,000 units, indicating strong momentum for Q4 2024 [3] - Sales and administrative expense ratio decreased to 9 0% in Q3 2024, down 2 5pct YoY and 5 4pct QoQ [4] - R&D expense ratio was 7 9% in Q3 2024, down 0 5pct YoY and 5 2pct QoQ [4] Product and Market Strategy - Leapmotor covers the RMB 50,000-200,000 price segment and has expanded internationally with T03 and C10 models [5] - The company plans to launch 3 B-series models in 2025, priced between RMB 100,000-150,000, including the compact SUV B10 in Q1 2025 [5] - Domestic sales network includes 493 sales outlets and 362 service centers across 204 cities as of September 2024 [5] - International presence includes 339 European outlets as of October 2024, with plans to exceed 500 global outlets by 2025 [5] - The company is accelerating autonomous driving development, planning to expand its team to 500 by end-2024 and introduce advanced ADAS features on the LEAP 3 5 platform in H1 2025 [5] Growth Outlook - Domestic growth driven by strong new product cycle and competitive pricing, with scale effects and product mix optimization expected to boost profitability [6] - International expansion through partnership with Stellantis enables asset-light overseas growth with low initial investment and rapid deployment [6] - Sales forecasts: 300,000 units in 2024, 500,000 units in 2025, and 750,000 units in 2026 [6]

零跑汽车（09863.HK） 乘用车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 14 日 国内基本盘毛利率大幅改善，出海进程加速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

公司点评报告 ·传媒互联网行业 单季首次实现扭亏,社区商业化不断推进 2024年三季报业绩点评 2024 年 11月 14日 核心观点 ● 事件 公司发布 2024 年度三季报：2024 年第三季度公司实现营业收入 73.06 哔哩哔哩-W (9626.HK) 亿元,同比增长 26%;归母净利润为-0.80 亿元,同比收窄94%;经调整后净 利润为 2.36亿元,公司首次实现非公认会计准则下的扭亏为盈。公司 2024年 第三季度单季度毛利率 34.9%,同比增长接近 5pct,单季毛利率实现连续九 分析师 个季度环比增长。 推荐 维持评级 盤：010-8092-7630 國：yuezheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030006 ☎: 010-8092-7603 网: qitianrui_yj @chinastock.com.cn 岳铮 《三谋》稳健运营,贡献长期增量业绩 公司年内新游《三国:谋定天下》 表现良好,上线后在 App Store 游戏畅销榜排行前列,9月末开启 S3赛季后, 最高排名游戏畅销榜第二名。在 S4赛季开启更多玩法、剧情后,产品流水有 ...

华福证券 包 研 旅游综合 2024 年 11 月 14 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 下沉市场 OTA 龙头，深耕产业强化自有供应链 投资要点： 同程旅行是由同程和艺龙合并整合形成的一站式在线旅行平台，规模 位居国内前三，深耕下沉市场，强化自有供应链建设提升竞争优势。 在线旅行渗透率持续提升，开拓下沉市场和年轻用户增量： 旅游预订线上化进程持续加速推动在线旅游市场增长高于旅游大 盘，根据嘉世咨询数据，预计 2024 年我国在线旅游市场规模将达 2.2 万亿元/恢复至 2019 年同期的 120%；在线旅行用户线上渗透率 45.2%， 低于网约车（45.7%）、外卖（50.3%）、网络音乐（66.3%）等，对比来 看在线旅行线上渗透率仍有提升空间；由于上游资源整合&下游流量门 槛高，OTA 一超多强格局稳定，2021 年携程+去哪儿市场份额约 5 成、 领先 其他 OTA 平台 ，美 团、同 程旅 行、飞 猪市 场份额 分别 为 20.6%/14.8%/7.3%。 同程旅行深耕下沉市场错位竞争，大股东赋能流量&库存的基础上强 化自有流量渠道&供应链建设： 同程旅行重视下沉市场用户开拓，截止 2024Q2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 513, representing a potential upside of 27.0% from the current price of HKD 403.80 [1][3]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2024 performance showed robust revenue growth of RMB 167.2 billion, up 8% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with market expectations. Key revenue drivers included gaming, social networks, and advertising, with respective growth rates of 13%, 4%, and 17% [1][2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 59.8 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year, benefiting from high-margin businesses such as domestic gaming and video services [1][3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in Q4 2024, projecting an 8.2% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by domestic gaming and advertising [3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Tencent is projected to grow from RMB 609.0 billion in 2023 to RMB 766.8 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.6% [4]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 28.35 in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margin, which increased to 53% in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization in cloud services and high-margin business growth [1][3][10]. Segment Performance - The gaming segment saw a 13% year-on-year revenue increase, with domestic games growing by 14% due to the successful launch of new titles and the recovery of existing games [2][6]. - Advertising revenue surged by 17%, fueled by strong demand for video ads and increased spending from the gaming and e-commerce sectors [2][3][15]. - Financial technology and enterprise services remained stable, with slight growth in enterprise service revenue, while payment services faced challenges due to consumer spending impacts [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.3 times for 2025, which is considered low compared to historical averages [3][4]. - The report suggests that Tencent's strong performance and shareholder returns exceeding RMB 100 billion annually justify the target price of HKD 513, based on a 20 times P/E ratio for 2025 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 159.00, indicating a potential upside of 38.0% from the current closing price of HKD 115.20 [7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong sales growth in Q3 2024, with total revenue increasing by 28.2% year-on-year to USD 1.002 billion, driven primarily by a 66.9% increase in product revenue to USD 993 million [1]. - The sales of the drug Zebutinib reached USD 690 million globally, marking a 93.0% year-on-year increase, with a notable performance in the U.S. market [1][2]. - The adjusted non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2024 was USD 65.63 million, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive operating profit [1]. - The company is expected to continue facing accelerated depreciation costs in Q4 2024, but profitability is anticipated to improve as product volumes increase in the following year [1]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been increased by 6-7%, with peak sales for Zebutinib revised up by 4% to USD 5.4 billion [2]. - The new revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are USD 3.712 billion, USD 4.630 billion, and USD 5.566 billion, respectively, reflecting a 7% increase for 2024 [3]. - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at USD 3.108 billion, with a gross margin of 83.6% [3]. Key Developments - The report highlights several upcoming catalysts, including potential approvals for additional indications of the drug Tarelizumab in key markets and the initiation of Phase III studies for the Bcl-2 inhibitor sonrotoclax in early 2025 [2]. - The company is also advancing multiple candidates for solid tumors into clinical stages, with eight candidates already in clinical trials this year [2]. Financial Data Overview - The company reported a net loss of USD 698 million for 2024, with expectations of narrowing losses in subsequent years [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents are projected to decrease to USD 2.551 billion in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price increase from HK$14.00 to HK$19.00, representing a 36.7% upside from the current price of HK$13.90 [2][5]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's 3Q24 NEV sales and profitability are strong, with expectations for continued momentum into FY25, leading to significant core profit growth [2]. - 3Q24 operating profit of RMB3.0 billion exceeded estimates by 13%, despite a slight revenue miss of 2% compared to prior forecasts [2]. - The company has raised its FY25E sales volume forecast by 18% to 2.38 million units, driven by positive reception of new NEV models [2]. Financial Performance Summary - 3Q24 revenue was RMB60.4 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 15.6%, slightly improved from 15.5% in FY24E [2][10]. - The net profit forecast for FY25E has been revised up by 43% to RMB12.4 billion, reflecting strong NEV performance and cost control measures [2][7]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB2.45 billion in 3Q24, which was largely in line with previous forecasts, excluding an impairment loss of RMB2.76 billion from Lynk & Co [2][10]. Sales and Production Outlook - NEV sales volume is projected to surge by 51% year-on-year to 1.32 million units in FY25E, constituting 55% of total sales volume [2]. - The sales volume for Geely increased by 15.8% year-on-year in 3Q24, with a total of 533,960 units sold [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - Zeekr is valued at 0.7x the revised FY25 core revenue, implying a valuation of US$8.3 billion [2]. - Geely's other businesses are valued at 12x FY25E P/E, supporting the overall target price increase [2][9]. Earnings Revision - Revenue estimates for FY25E have been raised to RMB276.93 billion, reflecting a 5.8% increase from previous estimates [7][8]. - The gross profit for FY25E is projected at RMB43.08 billion, with a gross margin of 15.6% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings Limited (00700.HK) [1][10]. Core Insights - Tencent's net profit showed strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 167.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8%, aligning with Factset consensus expectations. Gross margin improved from 49% to 53%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and enhanced profitability in cloud services [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 59.8 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, exceeding Factset consensus by 12%, primarily due to a 19% decrease in income tax expenses compared to the previous year [1]. - Domestic gaming business growth accelerated, with value-added services revenue at 82.7 billion RMB (up 9% year-on-year), and domestic game revenue reaching 37.3 billion RMB (up 14% year-on-year), supported by strong performances from established games and new releases [1]. - AI-driven advertising continues to empower growth, with marketing services revenue at 30 billion RMB (up 17% year-on-year), and search revenue more than doubling, benefiting from improved ad targeting through AI models [1]. - The mini-program ecosystem is expanding, with transaction volume reaching 2 trillion RMB in Q3 2024, and the recent upgrade of WeChat mini-stores is expected to enhance e-commerce capabilities [1]. - The company repurchased approximately 35.9 billion HKD worth of shares in Q3 2024, with plans to exceed 100 billion HKD in buybacks for the year [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 653.2 billion RMB, 721.4 billion RMB, and 791.8 billion RMB, respectively. Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same years are 221.3 billion RMB, 240.7 billion RMB, and 264.9 billion RMB [2][5]. - Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 53% for 2024, with a projected increase to 54.7% in 2025 and 54.9% in 2026. Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to be 33.9% in 2024, slightly decreasing in subsequent years [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 308.4 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 376.0 billion RMB by 2026 [6].

[Table_AuthorInfo] | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| | 股票数据 | | | 1 [ 1 T 月 ab 1 l 3 e 日 _S 收 t 盘 o 价 ck （ In H f K o D ] ） | 7.06 | | 52 周股价波动（HKD） | 4.01-7.55 | | 总股本（亿股） | 43.19 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元 HKD ） | 312/312 | | 相关研究 | | | [ 《 T 统 a 一 bl 企 e_ 业 R 中 e 国 p （ o 0 r 2 t 2 In 0） fo 半 ] 续维持良好成长性，盈利能力大幅修复》 2024.08.11 | 年报点评：饮料继 | | 《2023 年年报点评：盈利能力&分红提升，期 待 24 年收入增速复苏》 2024.03.08 | | | 《单三季度 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales volume and higher average selling prices (ASP) [2][3] - The company is making progress in its globalization strategy and accelerating its smart driving technology development [4] - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 results, reflecting a strong position in the mainstream new energy vehicle market [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 9.86 billion, with year-on-year growth of 74.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 83.9% [2] - The net loss attributable to equity holders for Q3 was RMB 690 million, an improvement from RMB 990 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.2 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net loss for Q3 was RMB 540 million, compared to RMB 790 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.08 billion in Q2 2024 [2] Sales and Margins - The company sold 84,000 vehicles in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.4% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 was 8.1%, with improvements driven by economies of scale and a higher proportion of high-margin models [3] - The company reported a reduction in per-vehicle loss to RMB 8,000 in Q3, down from RMB 22,000 in both Q3 2023 and Q2 2024 [3] Globalization and Technology Development - As of October 2024, the company has opened 339 dealerships in Europe, all offering sales and after-sales services [4] - The company plans to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and South America markets, aiming for over 500 channels by 2025 [4] - The company is investing in advanced smart driving technology, with plans to implement high-level driving functions based on a large model by mid-2025 [4] Financial Projections - The revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB -3.33 billion, RMB 1.0 billion, and RMB 2.41 billion, respectively [5] - The company is positioned well in the new energy vehicle market, with clear advantages in R&D, channel management, and supply chain [5]