五粮液(000858):2024Q4、2025Q1业绩点评报告:2025年平稳开局,渠道优化助力发展
万联证券· 2025-04-28 13:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months compared to the market index [5][10][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight miss on earnings expectations, with a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, which aligns with its shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, increasing the cash dividend ratio to 70% compared to 2023 [2][10]. - The report highlights a decline in the growth rate of liquor sales, with the core product's sales volume increasing by 7.06% in 2024, while other products saw a minimal growth of 0.12%. The gross margin for the main product improved to 87.72% [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 77.06%, with sales expenses exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, leading to a sales expense ratio increase to 11.99%. The net profit margin was recorded at 37.22%, a slight decline of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4][10]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with expected net profits of 33.606 billion yuan in 2025, 35.892 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.554 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 5.50%, 6.80%, and 7.42% respectively [5][10]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 8.21 yuan in 2024 to 9.93 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 15.73 to 12.99 over the same period [5][10].
爱尔眼科(300015):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:25Q1业绩增速亮眼,尽显头部连锁经营韧性
民生证券· 2025-04-28 13:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see growth in its refractive surgery segment due to an increase in average customer spending, while the cataract segment is anticipated to recover from a high base effect starting in May 2024 [2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are projected to lead to a decrease in expenses, with a gross margin of 48.02% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the ophthalmology medical service sector, with strengthening brand power and operational resilience [3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.09 billion, 26.07 billion, and 29.22 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 10.0%, 12.9%, and 12.1% [3][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.03 billion, 4.70 billion, and 5.43 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 13.3%, 16.6%, and 15.6% respectively [3][4]. - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 30, 26, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][4].
格力电器(000651):2024年报、2025年一季报点评:业绩分红均超预期,净利率持续改善
光大证券· 2025-04-28 13:13
2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 业绩分红均超预期,净利率持续改善 ——格力电器(000651.SZ)2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 买入(维持) 当前价/目标价:45.22/54.10 元 作者 分析师:洪吉然 执业证书编号:S0930521070002 021- 52523793 hongjiran@ebscn.com 市场数据 -11% 2% 15% 27% 40% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 格力电器 沪深300 点评: 收入分析:国补效应后移至 25Q1。1)24 年消费电器收入 1486 亿元(收入占比 78%,同比-4%),其中 24H1 同比+11%,24H2 同比-18%。24Q4 国补作用后滞, 推测主要系合同负债确认收入的节奏后移所致,24Q3-25Q1 公司单季度收入增速为 -16%/-13%/+14%,产业在线数据显示格力空调 24Q3-25Q1 单季度内销量同比增 速为-20%/+7%/+2%。2)24 年其他业务收入(原材料贸易)203 亿元(收入占比 11%,同比-33%),收入回归合理水平,公司更聚焦主营业务。 盈利分析:归母净利率同比连续 ...
瑞尔特(002790):25Q1业绩承压,期待国补成效
华安证券· 2025-04-28 13:08
[Table_StockNameRptType] 瑞尔特(002790) 公司点评 25Q1 业绩承压,期待国补成效 [Table_Rank] 投资评级:买入(维持) 报告日期: 2025-4-28 [Table_BaseData] 收盘价(元) 6.64 近 12 个月最高/最低(元) 13.87/6.14 总股本(百万股) 418 流通股本(百万股) 261 流通股比例(%) 62.39 总市值(亿元) 28 流通市值(亿元) 17 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -55% -35% -14% 7% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 瑞尔特 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师:徐偲 执业证书号:S0010523120001 邮箱:xucai@hazq.com 分析师:余倩莹 执业证书号:S0010524040004 邮箱:yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.瑞尔特:深耕卫浴领域,积极布局自 主品牌 2025-03-08 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 事件:公司发布 20 ...
中钢国际(000928):2024年毛利率大幅提升,经营性现金流改善
国投证券· 2025-04-28 13:03
2025 年 04 月 28 日 中钢国际(000928.SZ) 2024 年毛利率大幅提升,经营性现金 流改善 事件: 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报,2024 年公司实现营业收入 176.47 亿元,同比-33.10%,实现归母净利润 8.35 亿元,同比+9.69%, 实现扣非归母净利润 7.46 亿元,同比+19.01%。拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.99 元(含税), 预计共分配股利 4.29 亿元,占合 并报表 2024 年归母净利润的 51.36%。2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 35.19 亿元,同比-28.21%,实现归母净利润 2.32 亿元,同比+7.78%, 实现扣非归母净利润 2.31 亿元,同比+9.25%。 高基数下营收下滑,境外新签合同额高增。 2024 年公司实现营收 176.47 亿元,yoy-33.10%,在 2023 年高基 数(yoy+40.92%)基础上,公司营业收入同比下滑,营收下滑主 要由于国内冶金行业承压,国内业务营收大幅下滑,同时海外业 务营收有所收缩,2024 年公司国内、海外营收分别 yoy-44.72%、 -13.21%, ...
安利股份(300218):2025Q1增势良好,关注下游订单情况
招商证券· 2025-04-28 13:03
证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 28 日 安利股份(300218.SZ) 资料来源:公司数据、招商证券 增持(维持) 2025Q1 增势良好,关注下游订单情况 周期/化工 事件:公司发布 2025 年一季报,报告期内公司实现收入 5.55 亿元,同比增长 2.59%,归母净利润 0.46 亿元,同比增长 12.47%,扣非归母净利润 0.44 亿元, 同比增长 17.47%。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2000 | 2403 | 2971 | 3445 | 4006 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 16% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 73 | 215 | 284 | 352 | 433 | | 同比增长 | -55% | 195% | 32% | 24% | 23% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 71 | 194 | 256 | 319 | 392 | | ...
扬农化工(600486):一季度业绩符合预期,行业周期底部凸显韧性
招商证券· 2025-04-28 13:03
证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 28 日 扬农化工(600486.SH) 一季度业绩符合预期,行业周期底部凸显韧性 周期/化工 事件:公司发布 2025 年一季报,报告期内实现营业收入 32.41 亿元,同比增长 2.04%,归母净利润 4.35 亿元,同比增长 1.35%,扣非净利润 4.30 亿元,同 比增长 0.83%。 ❑ 风险提示:产品价格下跌、原材料价格上涨、新项目投产不及预期。 | 财务数据与估值 | | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11478 | 10435 | 11732 | 13364 | 15125 | | 同比增长 | -27% | -9% | 12% | 14% | 13% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1869 | 1413 | 1585 | 1892 | 2201 | | 同比增长 | -13% | -24% | 12% | 19% | 16% | | 归母净利润(百万元) ...
古井贡酒(000596):省内需求基础扎实,25年营收目标实现稳健增长
中邮证券· 2025-04-28 13:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2025, driven by solid domestic demand and strategic market development [4][9] - The revenue targets for 2025-2027 are projected at 255.05 billion, 280.64 billion, and 321.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.17%, 10.03%, and 14.40% respectively [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60.75 billion, 68.27 billion, and 80.37 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10.11%, 12.38%, and 17.72% [9][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 167.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 883 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 5.29 billion shares, with 4.09 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 36.6%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 16.01 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 235.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [4][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 79.9%, with a net profit margin of 23.4% [4] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 31.72 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.49%, an increase of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product and Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue from different product lines is expected to be 180.86 billion from aged original liquor, 22.41 billion from Gujing liquor, and 25.38 billion from other products [6] - Online and offline channels are projected to generate revenues of 7.72 billion and 228.06 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.81% and 16.81% [6] - The number of distributors increased to 5,089, up by 448 year-on-year, indicating a strengthening distribution network [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 11.49, 12.92, and 15.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 22.4% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 21.3% by 2027 [11][14]
泸州老窖(000568):2025Q1录得正增,公司指引3年分红率稳步提升
国信证券· 2025-04-28 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]
新澳股份(603889):2024年全年收入增长9%,近两季度增长放缓
国信证券· 2025-04-28 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][31] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 9.07% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 4.841 billion yuan and a net profit of 428 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.96% [1][6] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of the cashmere yarn business and stable growth in fine wool and wool tops [1] - The company has a gross margin of 18.98%, which has improved by 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in gross margin from fine wool and wool tops [1] - The company plans to gradually release production capacity over the next two years, which is expected to enhance market share [4][31] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, and a net profit of 428 million yuan, up 5.96% [1][7] - The gross margin for the year was 18.98%, with a net profit margin of 9.34%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous year [1][7] - The cash flow from operating activities decreased by 33.03% to 370 million yuan, mainly due to increased payments for goods and services [1] Business Segments - Fine wool yarn business generated revenue of 2.543 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.78%, reflecting a 1.72 percentage point increase [3] - Cashmere yarn business revenue reached 1.548 billion yuan, growing by 26.65%, but the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 11.13% [3] - Wool tops business revenue was 666 million yuan, with a gross margin of 5.22%, up 1.63 percentage points [3] Capacity Expansion - The company has completed the production of 15,000 spindles for its high-end fine wool yarn project and is progressing with its Vietnam project, which is expected to meet overseas demand [4][31] - The company plans to launch additional production lines in Vietnam in 2025, which will further enhance its production capacity [4] Market Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable operation in 2024, with continued growth in the cashmere business and a gradual release of production capacity [31] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 444 million yuan, 493 million yuan, and 563 million yuan, respectively, indicating a growth rate of 3.6%, 11.0%, and 14.3% [6][31]