Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次覆盖) [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's strategic shift towards high-end products and its business model evolution are key drivers for future growth [3] - The company's organizational and management changes support its high-end strategy [3] - Xiaomi's 3C business is entering a positive cycle, with smartphone shipments reaching 146 million units in 2023, ranking third globally [4] - The integration of MIUI into Hyper OS and the development of Xiaomi SU7 are significant milestones in Xiaomi's ecosystem strategy [4] - Xiaomi's high-end strategy is expected to enhance its financial metrics, including growth rate, profit margin, R&D, and valuation multiples [3] Business Segments Smartphones - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in 2023 were 146 million units, ranking third globally [4] - The high-end smartphone segment accounted for 22.1% of total shipments in Q2 2024 [12] - Xiaomi's smartphone ASP in China increased by over 19% in 2023, reaching a historical high [101] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's home appliance business revenue grew by 40% in 2023, with shipments of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines reaching record highs [4] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is expected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] Internet Services - Xiaomi's internet services revenue is projected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The high-end smartphone segment contributes significantly to internet services, with LTV being twice that of non-premium smartphones [146] Smart Electric Vehicles - Xiaomi SU7, the company's first electric vehicle, achieved sales of over 10,000 units for five consecutive months in 2024 [4] - Xiaomi plans to deliver 120,000 units of SU7 in 2024, with a production capacity of 190,000 units in the first phase [124][130] - The company has invested heavily in R&D for its electric vehicle business, with a team of 3,400 engineers and over RMB 10 billion in R&D expenses [141] Financial Projections - Xiaomi's total revenue is expected to grow by 28% in 2024, reaching RMB 347.4 billion [5] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 26% in 2024, reaching RMB 24.3 billion [5] - The company's smartphone business revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2024, reaching RMB 187.3 billion [10] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is projected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] - Internet services revenue is expected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The smart electric vehicle business is projected to generate RMB 30.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a delivery target of 129,600 units [11] Valuation - Xiaomi's "Smartphone x AIoT" segment is valued at RMB 7,165 billion based on a 22x PE multiple for 2025E adjusted net profit of RMB 332 billion [5] - The smart electric vehicle and innovation business segment is valued at RMB 674 billion based on a 0.9x PS multiple for 2025E revenue of RMB 728 billion [5] - The target market capitalization for 2025E is RMB 7,839 billion (HK$ 847.5 billion), with a target price of HK$ 33.9 per share, representing a 21% upside [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - In Q3 2024, Tencent Music reported revenue of 7.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.0%. The gross margin improved to 42.6%, up 7.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues, as well as an increase in original content [1][2] - The online music service revenue reached 5.48 billion RMB in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0%. The growth was attributed to high-quality content, attractive membership benefits, optimized user operations, and effective promotional measures. The report anticipates continued revenue growth in Q4, projecting it to reach 5.7 billion RMB [2] - The social entertainment service revenue was 1.54 billion RMB in Q3 2024, showing a decline of 23.9% year-on-year and 11.6% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to adjustments in live interaction features and increased competition from other platforms [2] Financial Summary - The report forecasts the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 6.4 billion RMB, 7.9 billion RMB, and 9.5 billion RMB respectively. The previous estimates were 6.7 billion RMB, 8.2 billion RMB, and 10.2 billion RMB, adjusted due to lower gross margin and interest income [3] - The report sets a target price of 56.37 HKD (52.17 RMB) for Tencent Music, based on a P/E ratio of 28 times for 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Pentamaster (01665.HK) [3] Target Price - The target price is set at HK$ 0.75, down from a previous target of HK$ 0.95 [4][20] Current Price and Market Capitalization - The current price is HK$ 0.61, with a market capitalization of HK$ 1.5 billion [5][7] Revenue and Profitability - Pentamaster recorded a revenue of MYR 150.1 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 16.9% year-over-year decline, leading to a 5.9% decrease in revenue for the first nine months of 2024 [18] - The gross profit for 2023 is reported at MYR 209.6 million, with projections of MYR 187.3 million for 2024 and MYR 212.8 million for 2025 [10][26] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 28.8% in Q3 2024 to 31.0% by 2026 [11][20] Segment Performance - The medical segment achieved stable revenue of MYR 79.0 million, expected to grow due to increased automation and contributions from single-use medical devices [19] - The automotive segment generated MYR 32.6 million in Q3 2024, but faced challenges due to cautious customer spending and macroeconomic uncertainties [19] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are MYR 651.2 million for 2024, MYR 735.0 million for 2025, and MYR 806.2 million for 2026, indicating a recovery trend [9][26] - Profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be MYR 117.7 million in 2024, with an expected increase to MYR 161.8 million by 2026 [12][26] Performance Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 18.0% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2024, before gradually improving to 14.2% by 2026 [13][26] - The company has experienced a significant decline in stock performance, with a 30.3% drop over the past year [15] Market Context - The report highlights macroeconomic uncertainties as a primary obstacle affecting the company's performance and outlook [20] - The automotive segment's recovery remains weak, influenced by political issues in the US and policy uncertainties [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 financial results that exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching $3.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, marking the highest quarterly revenue in history [2] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns to $4.5 billion over the next three years, up from $3 billion, reflecting confidence in future performance [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 total revenue was $3.07 billion, with operating profit at $371 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] - Core operating profit rose 18% year-on-year to $369 million [2] - The total number of stores reached 15,861, with net additions of 438 stores in Q3 2024 [2] - System sales increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by a 7% contribution from net new stores [2] Same-Store Sales and Profitability - Same-store sales continued to decline, with Q3 2024 showing a decrease of 3% for the overall company, 2% for KFC, and 6% for Pizza Hut [2] - Restaurant profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.0%, stable compared to the previous year, with a comparable basis showing a 0.5 percentage point increase [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company optimized its delivery strategy, resulting in an 18% year-on-year increase in delivery sales, which now account for 40% of restaurant revenue [2] - Membership numbers exceeded 510 million, with member sales contributing to 64% of system sales [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its franchise model, with expectations that the proportion of franchise stores will increase to 40%-50% for KFC and 20%-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are $11.19 billion, $12.18 billion, and $13.14 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of $876 million, $947 million, and $1.072 billion [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 21x, 19x, and 17x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful results of the global Phase III clinical trial for Pimicotinib, a small molecule inhibitor for treating tenosynovial giant cell tumors (TGCT), which is expected to lead to a market application submission [1][2]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting total revenue to increase from 46 million in 2023 to 562 million in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 134% [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of 2 million, and further increasing to 28 million by 2025 [2][5]. Financial Projections - Total Revenue (in million): - 2023A: 46 - 2024E: 562 - 2025E: 639 - 2026E: 689 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate: - 2023A: -31% - 2024E: 134% - 2025E: 428% - 2026E: 8% [2][5]. - Net Profit (in million): - 2023A: -496 - 2024E: -432 - 2025E: 2 - 2026E: 28 [2][5]. - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: -0.73 - 2024E: -0.64 - 2025E: 0.00 - 2026E: 0.04 [2][5]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: -5.6 - 2024E: -6.4 - 2025E: 1359.5 - 2026E: 99.4 [2][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report indicates that Pimicotinib has shown significant efficacy and safety in clinical trials, with a notable overall response rate (ORR) of 54.0% compared to the placebo group [1][2]. - The company has established a licensing agreement with Merck for Pimicotinib, which is expected to enhance cash flow and open up overseas markets [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the competitive edge of Pimicotinib over similar products in the market, particularly in terms of safety and efficacy [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [11][13]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue reached 167.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8%, aligning with consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit was 59.8 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, exceeding consensus by 10% [11]. - The report highlights that domestic game revenue grew by 14% year-on-year, while overseas game revenue increased by 9% [8]. - Advertising revenue saw a 17% year-on-year growth, driven by the performance of video accounts and AI enhancements [9]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, with payment income declining but expected to recover partially in Q4 [12]. - The report emphasizes Tencent's strong fundamentals, competitive landscape, and growth drivers from gaming and AI, with a target market capitalization adjustment from 47,190 billion RMB to 48,013 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 560 HKD [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2022: 554.6 billion RMB - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024E: 657.9 billion RMB - 2025E: 723.4 billion RMB - 2026E: 780.3 billion RMB [7][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: 224.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 245.1 billion RMB - 2026E: 280.3 billion RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates a significant increase in deferred revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 93% for non-current liabilities [8].

主要财务指标 公 司 跟 踪 报 告 海 外 研 究 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | ＃市场数据 marketData ＃ | | | 日期 | 20241113 | | 收盘价（港元） | 16.56 | | 总股本（亿股） | 16 | | 流通股本（亿股） | 16 | | 净资产（亿美元） | 43 | | 总资产（亿美元） | 72 | | 每股净资产（美元） | 2.64 | | 数据来源： Wind | ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 裕元集团_供不应求持续，上调 全年指引_20240813 裕元集团_满单率和毛利率超预 期_20240427 裕元集团_需求拐点将至，制造 端 利 润 率 继 续 环 比 提 升 _20231123 裕元集团_跟踪报告_降本增效 抵御压力，经营利润率环比改善 _20230815 裕元集团_跟踪报告_二季度压 力仍大_20230515 裕元集团_跟踪报告_订单能见 度尚不清晰_202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][8]. Core Views - Geely's strategic focus on integrating its brands, particularly through increasing its stake in Zeekr and controlling Lynk & Co, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and resource utilization [5][8]. - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 60.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, driven by significant sales growth and product optimization [4][5]. - Geely's net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 92.1% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Geely Holdings announced a restructuring of its equity in Zeekr and Lynk & Co, increasing its stake in Zeekr to approximately 62.8% and establishing Zeekr as the controlling shareholder of Lynk & Co [4][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 60.38 billion yuan, up 20.5% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with total sales of 534,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 2.45 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 92.1% [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The restructuring aims to eliminate redundancies and improve decision-making efficiency within the group, aligning with Geely's strategic transformation goals [5][8]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the new energy vehicle segment, with sales of 226,000 units in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.7% [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 224.78 billion yuan, 277.69 billion yuan, and 308.83 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 16.04 billion yuan, 12.58 billion yuan, and 16.32 billion yuan [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - The company demonstrated stable performance in Q3 2024, with a focus on upcoming new games such as "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" [2][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 78.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.9 billion yuan, down 8.33% year-on-year [7]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 26.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.89% year-on-year but an increase of 2.84% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 6.5 billion yuan, down 16.57% year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the revenue breakdown includes: - Game and related value-added services revenue: 20.9 billion yuan (down 4.2% year-on-year) - Youdao revenue: 1.6 billion yuan (up 2.2% year-on-year) - Cloud music revenue: 2.0 billion yuan (up 1.3% year-on-year) - Innovation and other business revenue: 1.8 billion yuan (down 10.3% year-on-year) [7]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a foreign exchange loss of 1.056 billion yuan, while revenue and profit showed stable performance quarter-on-quarter [7]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 29.3 billion, 34.2 billion, and 39.0 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 9.1, 10.7, and 12.1 yuan [7]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.7, 11.7, and 10.3 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating potential for growth driven by new game product cycles [7]. - The return of Blizzard games has shown strong performance, with "World of Warcraft" and "Hearthstone" experiencing significant increases in daily active users [8]. - Upcoming new games such as "Marvel Showdown" and "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" are expected to drive further growth in the company's gaming business [8]. Business Segment Performance - Cloud music continues to enhance its ecosystem, achieving a gross margin of 32.8% in Q3 2024, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 5.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. - Youdao has turned profitable for the first time in Q3, achieving record operating profit, indicating a positive trend in profitability for both Cloud Music and Youdao [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Tencent Holdings (0700) [1]. Core Insights - The third-quarter business performance is generally in line with expectations, with a recovery in gaming, smooth commercialization of video accounts, and short-term pressure on enterprise services. The company is expected to maintain high profit growth for the full year [3]. - The report anticipates that the integration of video accounts and WeChat stores will further enhance the WeChat ecosystem, driving advertising business growth. Deferred revenue from games is expected to gradually materialize, and enterprise services are likely to benefit from ecosystem openness [5]. Financial Summary - For FY24Q3, Tencent achieved operating revenue of 167.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%, which is in line with consensus expectations (167.9 billion RMB). Adjusted net profit reached 59.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, significantly exceeding market expectations (54.4 billion RMB) [5]. - The gross profit margin for FY24Q3 was 53.1%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of +3.64% and -0.18%, respectively. The slight decline in the quarter was mainly due to a 2.65 percentage point decrease in advertising gross margin [5]. - The company expects to repurchase over 100 billion HKD worth of shares for the full year [5]. Segment Performance - Value-added services (VAS) revenue for FY24Q3 was 82.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with gaming revenue at 51.8 billion RMB, up 12.6%. Domestic and international gaming revenues were 37.3 billion RMB and 14.5 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - Social network revenue reached 30.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, meeting expectations [5]. - Advertising revenue for FY24Q3 was 30 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, with video account advertising revenue growing over 60% year-on-year [5]. - Enterprise services revenue for FY24Q3 was 53.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2%, showing slower growth mainly due to overall macroeconomic impacts [5]. Operational Data - The WeChat ecosystem remains robust, with VAS paid user growth showing positive momentum. The number of WeChat and WeChat MAUs increased by 3% year-on-year [31]. - The number of paid accounts for value-added services increased by 9% year-on-year [31].