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腾讯控股:3Q收入符合预期,4Q游戏有望加速
HTSC· 2024-11-14 09:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 505.43 [3][6]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 revenue grew by 8.1% year-on-year to RMB 167.2 billion, aligning with consensus expectations. The adjusted net profit increased by 33.2% year-on-year to RMB 59.8 billion, exceeding expectations by 11.4% due to improved investment income and tax rate [2][4]. - The company anticipates accelerated growth in gaming revenue for Q4, with the upcoming launch of the mobile game "DnF" during the Spring Festival in 2025 expected to act as a catalyst [2][4]. - Despite short-term macroeconomic factors potentially impacting Q4 advertising revenue, the growth of the video account feature is expected to help expand Tencent's market share [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 value-added services revenue increased by 9.2% year-on-year to RMB 82.7 billion, surpassing market expectations. Online advertising revenue grew by 16.6% year-on-year, while fintech revenue saw a modest increase of 2.0% [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for value-added services, online advertising, and fintech improved by 1.9, 0.7, and 6.8 percentage points respectively [2][4]. Advertising Business - The advertising business is expected to face pressure in Q4 due to weak consumer spending, but the video account feature is anticipated to mitigate some of the negative impacts [5]. - Q3 advertising revenue grew by 16.6% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations, with a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards by 0.4%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors affecting advertising and payment revenue growth [6][22]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are revised to RMB 221.8 billion, RMB 250.8 billion, and RMB 285.9 billion, reflecting improvements in tax rates and strong performance in investment business [6][22]. Gaming Performance - Q3 gaming revenue continued to accelerate, with strong performances in both domestic and overseas markets. Upcoming game launches are expected to act as catalysts for future growth [4][14]. - The mobile game "Pokémon Unite" launched in November is anticipated to leverage Tencent's long-term operational capabilities in mobile gaming [17][18].
中芯国际:12英寸业务稳增长,季度收入首超20亿美元
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-14 08:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and market position [3][4] Core Views - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of $2.171 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 34% YoY increase and a 14.2% QoQ growth, surpassing the $2 billion mark for the first time [1] - Gross margin improved to 20.5% in Q3 2024, up 0.7 pct YoY and 6.6 pcts QoQ, within the guidance range of 18%-20% [1] - Net income attributable to shareholders reached $149 million in Q3 2024, a 58.3% YoY increase but a 9.6% QoQ decline, below the FactSet consensus estimate of $255 million [1] - The company provided Q4 2024 revenue guidance of $2.171-$2.214 billion, slightly above the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.137 billion [1] Financial Performance - The company's wafer production reached 884,000 wafers per month in Q3 2024, an 11% YoY and 6% QoQ increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.4% [2] - 12-inch wafer revenue grew significantly to $1.609 billion in Q3 2024, up 47.3% YoY and 23.8% QoQ, driving overall average price improvements [2] - The company aims to achieve a monthly production capacity of 900,000 8-inch equivalent wafers by the end of 2024 [2] Market and Industry Outlook - The non-AI foundry market is expected to grow by 4%-9% in 2025, with wafer shipments projected to increase by double digits [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of AI applications into edge devices such as smartphones and IoT, leveraging its BCD and NPU products [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to $8.015 billion in 2024, $9.348 billion in 2025, and $10.202 billion in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.8%, 16.6%, and 9.1% respectively [4] - Net income attributable to shareholders is expected to be $584 million in 2024, $820 million in 2025, and $1.123 billion in 2026, with significant YoY growth in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 16.7% in 2024 to 22.3% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency and product mix optimization [4]
睿智投资|巨子生物 (2367 HK) - 双十一收官,双品牌强势增长
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-11-14 08:08
点击蓝字 关注我们 招商银行全资附属机构 2024年双十一收官,公司两大核心品牌可复美与可丽金线上增速靓丽。双十一期间(10月8日至11月11 日),可复美与可丽金的线上全渠道GMV分别同比增长超80%和超150%,较今年"618"均有提速。可复美和 可丽金在抖音平台爆发式增长,双十一期间分别同比增长超100%和超500%。根据《天下网商》联合天猫发 布的品牌成交排行榜(10月21日至11月11日),可复美在天猫快消品牌销售榜名列第14,护肤品牌销售榜名 列第12,在国货品牌排名第三。可复美在抖音电商双十一大促护肤品牌总榜中名列第四,国货品牌第三。 双十一大促于10月拉开序幕,可复美和可丽金增长强劲。2024年各大平台双十一大促较往年均有所提前,普 遍从10月中上旬开启,较2023年提前约10天。叠加双十一大促开启以及错期影响,据魔镜数据库统计, 10M24可复美线上GMV同比强劲增长90%,其中天猫淘宝和抖音平台GMV分别同比增长83%和120%。可复 美在抖音平台进行成功的营销投入,如搭建抖音自播间矩阵,因此驱动可复美在抖音平台快速增长。 可复美胶原棒延续高增长,新品表现亮眼。经典产品可复美重组胶原蛋白敷 ...
普拉达:Miu Miu24Q3成长再提速
Tianfeng Securities· 2024-11-14 06:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth, with Miu Miu's revenue increasing by 105% year-on-year in FY24Q3, while Prada's revenue grew by 2% [1]. - Retail revenue by region indicates a 12% increase in the Asia-Pacific region, an 18% increase in Europe, and a 10% increase in the Americas [1]. - The report highlights the successful initiatives of Miu Miu, including special projects and collaborations that have enhanced brand visibility and cultural discussions [1]. - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 expected to be €5.5 billion, €6.3 billion, and €7.3 billion respectively, compared to previous estimates of €5.11 billion, €5.53 billion, and €6.0 billion [1]. - Net profits are projected to be €820 million, €950 million, and €1.09 billion for the same period, up from previous estimates of €750 million, €850 million, and €930 million [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be €0.32, €0.37, and €0.42, revised from €0.29, €0.33, and €0.36 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 21, 18, and 16 times for the respective years [1]. Financial Data Summary - The total share capital of the company is 2,558.82 million shares [4]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 148.92 billion HKD [4]. - The net asset value per share is 12.86 HKD [4]. - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 49.13% [4]. - The stock has traded between a high of 66.80 HKD and a low of 40.00 HKD over the past year [4].
新秀丽2024Q3业绩点评:Q3经营短期波动,Q4有望边际改善
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company experienced short-term fluctuations in Q3 due to weak global consumer demand, but sales are expected to improve marginally in Q4 as the high base effect diminishes [2] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to $389 million, $436 million, and $490 million respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [3] - Q3 sales were weak, with revenue of $880 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% and a fixed exchange rate decline of 6.8% [3] - The gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was $66 million, down 39.1% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q3 revenue breakdown by brand shows a decline: Samsonite at $480 million (-3.9%), TUMI at $190 million (-9.5%), and American Tourister at $140 million (-17.0%) [3] - By channel, wholesale revenue was $530 million (-11.5%) and DTC revenue was $350 million (-3.1%) [3] - By region, Q3 revenue was $330 million in Asia (-12%), $300 million in North America (-8%), $210 million in Europe (-2%), and $50 million in Latin America (-8%) [3] Future Outlook - Sales have shown marginal improvement since October, with a nearly double-digit year-on-year increase during the Singles' Day sales in China [3] - The revenue guidance for 2024 is expected to remain flat year-on-year (at fixed exchange rates), with a positive outlook for 2025 as the company focuses on higher-margin brands, channels, and regions [3]
特海国际:首次覆盖报告:海外中餐前景广,火锅龙头新征程
Minsheng Securities· 2024-11-14 06:23
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [6][8]. Core Insights - Tehai International, spun off from Haidilao's overseas operations, has established a significant presence in the global market with 122 stores across 13 countries as of June 30, 2024, primarily in Southeast Asia [3][16]. - The company reported a revenue of $371 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.5%, with a notable increase in customer traffic [4][24]. - The international Chinese cuisine market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2022 to 2027, presenting substantial opportunities for the hot pot segment, where Tehai International holds a competitive advantage [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tehai International operates outside Greater China, focusing on markets in North America, Europe, and Oceania, with a strong foothold in Southeast Asia [3][16]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding a significant stake [19]. Financial Performance - The company achieved its first profitability in 2023, with a net profit of $26 million, and is expected to continue growing with projected revenues of $800 million, $933 million, and $1.072 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][24]. - The average daily revenue per restaurant has shown an upward trend, increasing from $15,400 in 2022 to $17,200 in 2024 [4][30]. Market Analysis - The global Chinese cuisine market was valued at $306.1 billion in 2022, with hot pot accounting for 11.2% of this market, indicating a strong growth potential for Tehai International [4][5]. - The company has a robust brand presence, ranking 14th among global restaurant brands and first among Chinese brands in 2024 [5]. Operational Highlights - Tehai International's management team is experienced, with the new CEO having over 27 years in the industry, contributing to effective operational strategies [21][23]. - The company has implemented a localized approach to enhance customer experience, achieving a 50% share of non-Chinese customers in 2023 [5][24]. Regional Performance - Southeast Asia remains the largest market for the company, contributing 55% of total revenue, while North America shows significant growth potential with an increase in store openings [34][36]. - The average table turnover rate has improved from 2.1 times per day in 2021 to 3.8 times in 2024, reflecting operational efficiency [27][31].
特海国际:海外中餐前景广,火锅龙头新征程
Minsheng Securities· 2024-11-14 06:14
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tehai International (9658 HK) with a "Recommend" rating [6] Core Views - Tehai International, spun off from Haidilao's overseas operations, is a leading player in the international Chinese hotpot market with significant growth potential [3] - The company has demonstrated strong operational performance with revenue growth of 14 5% YoY in 24H1 and improving profitability metrics [4] - With 122 stores across 13 countries as of 2024H1, Tehai has established a solid foundation for international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America [3][4] - The global Chinese food market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7 8% from 2022 to 2027, presenting significant opportunities for Tehai's expansion [4] Business Overview - Tehai International operates 122 stores globally as of 2024H1, with Southeast Asia accounting for 60 7% of total stores [3] - The company achieved revenue of $371 million in 24H1, with Southeast Asia contributing 54 9% of total revenue [4] - Key operational metrics show consistent improvement, with table turnover rate increasing from 3 3 times/day in 2022 to 3 8 times/day in 24H1 [4] - Store-level operating profit margin improved significantly from 4 1% in 2022 to 8 7% in 24H1 [4] Industry Analysis - The global Chinese food market reached $306 1 billion in 2022, with a projected CAGR of 7 8% through 2027 [4] - The international hotpot market was valued at $34 3 billion in 2022, accounting for 11 2% of the global Chinese food market [4] - The US represents the largest market for Chinese food internationally, accounting for 17 97% of the global market [46] - The hotpot market is expected to grow to $50 5 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 8 0% [58] Competitive Advantages - Tehai benefits from Haidilao's strong brand recognition, ranking 14th in the 2024 Global Restaurant Brands Top 25 [5][61] - The company has established a robust management system with a three-tier structure and performance evaluation mechanisms [5] - Tehai maintains strong supply chain capabilities, leveraging Haidilao's existing infrastructure and partnerships [5] - Localization efforts have been successful, with non-Chinese customers accounting for approximately 50% of total customers in 2023 [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $800 million in 2024 to $1 072 billion in 2026, representing a CAGR of 15 7% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from $21 million in 2024 to $73 million in 2026 [6] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 52x in 2024 to 15x in 2026 as profitability improves [6] Growth Drivers - Southeast Asia remains the core growth market, contributing 54 9% of revenue in 24H1 [4] - North America shows strong potential, with revenue contribution increasing to 20 7% in 24H1 [4] - The company's UE model shows consistent improvement, with daily revenue per store increasing from $15,400 in 2022 to $17,200 in 24H1 [4] - Same-store sales growth remains healthy at 8 2% in 24H1, with East Asia showing the strongest growth at 22 7% [41]
腾讯控股:业务展现韧性,游戏增长亮眼
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2024-11-14 03:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [2] Core Views - The company's business shows resilience with impressive growth in gaming and advertising sectors [2] - The WeChat ecosystem is thriving, with significant advancements in AI deployment and commercial capabilities [2] - The gaming segment continues to grow healthily, with both domestic and international revenues showing positive trends [2] - Advertising revenue, particularly from video accounts, is experiencing high growth rates [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services are stable, with potential for recovery in the future [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, Tencent reported revenue of 167.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a NON-IFRS net profit of 59.8 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [2] Business Analysis - WeChat's mini-program transaction volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 10% year-on-year [2] - The gaming revenue reached 51.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking a 13% increase year-on-year, with domestic game revenue at 37.3 billion yuan, up 14% [2] - Advertising revenue was 30 billion yuan, growing 17% year-on-year, with video account ads increasing by over 60% [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 53.1 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Projected NON-IFRS net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 222.5 billion yuan, 252.6 billion yuan, and 275.2 billion yuan respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.57 for 2024, 13.71 for 2025, and 12.58 for 2026 [2]
巨子生物:双十一收官,双品牌强势增长
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-11-14 03:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 66.15, representing a potential upside of 29.2% from the current price of HKD 51.20 [4][21]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong online sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with its two main brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, achieving GMV growth rates of over 80% and over 150% respectively compared to the previous year [2]. - The report highlights the successful marketing strategies on platforms like Douyin, which have significantly boosted sales, particularly for Kefu Mei, which saw a GMV increase of 120% on Douyin [2]. - The introduction of new products has also contributed to growth, with Kefu Mei's collagen stick and Keli Jin's new cream series driving substantial sales increases [2]. Financial Performance - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5,099 million in FY24E to RMB 9,187 million in FY26E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33.6% [3][22]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,971 million in FY24E to RMB 3,130 million in FY26E, indicating a strong profitability trajectory [3][22]. - The company maintains a healthy net debt ratio, with a forecasted net debt ratio of -75.3% by FY26E, indicating a strong balance sheet [3]. Sales Growth and Market Position - Kefu Mei ranked 12th in the Tmall fast-moving consumer goods sales ranking and 4th in the skincare brand ranking during the Double Eleven event, showcasing its competitive position in the market [2][8]. - Keli Jin's new product launches have resulted in a GMV increase of 109% year-on-year, with significant contributions from its new cream and eye cream products [2]. - The report notes that the overall skincare category in e-commerce is experiencing robust growth, with Kefu Mei and Keli Jin leading the charge [12][13]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for FY24-26 have been slightly adjusted upwards, with revenue and profit estimates reflecting the strong sales momentum and successful product launches [16][20]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin will remain stable, with a projected gross margin of 82.20% in FY24E [16][20]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HKD 66.15 corresponds to a 25x adjusted P/E ratio for FY25E and a 20x adjusted P/E ratio for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][18]. - The DCF analysis suggests a strong intrinsic value for the company, with a calculated equity value of HKD 68.02 million [18].
百济神州:海外泽布替尼收入再创新高
浦银国际证券· 2024-11-14 03:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the US and Hong Kong stocks of BeiGene, with target prices adjusted to $255 and HK$153 respectively. The A-share rating is downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of RMB 181 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that BeiGene's total revenue for Q3 2024 reached $1.002 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 28.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%. Product revenue was $993 million, up 66.9% year-over-year and 7.8% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below expectations due to lower-than-expected sales of Zanubrutinib in the US [1][3][4]. - The global sales of Zanubrutinib in Q3 2024 amounted to $690 million, a 93.0% increase year-over-year and an 8.3% increase quarter-over-quarter. US sales were $504 million, up 86.5% year-over-year, while European sales surged by 217.2% year-over-year to $97.3 million [1][3][4]. - The report notes a temporary decline in gross margin due to accelerated depreciation from new production lines, with an overall product gross margin of 82.8% in Q3 2024 [1][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the adjusted non-GAAP operating profit was $65.63 million, an improvement from $48.46 million in Q2 2023. The net loss for the quarter was $121 million, which aligns with expectations but is lower than previous forecasts due to slightly lower revenue gross margins and higher R&D expenses [1][3][4]. - The report projects a slight reduction in revenue forecasts for 2024, with net losses adjusted to $740 million for 2024 and $350 million for 2025, while estimating a near breakeven point by 2026 [3][4]. R&D Pipeline Progress - The report indicates that BeiGene's R&D pipeline is progressing well, with key focus areas including BCL2, BTK CDAC, and CDK4 inhibitors. The BCL2 project has enrolled over 1,300 patients, with several trials expected to complete enrollment by early 2025 [2][3][4]. - The company anticipates that by the end of 2024, a total of 12 solid tumor products will enter clinical trials, with 8 already initiated this year [2].