December 8, 2025 05:04 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Greater China Semiconductors: Global AI Supply- Chain Updates; CoWoS expansion and China AI semi development | Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com M | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | December 8, 2025 05:04 PM GMT | | | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | | | | Charlie Chan | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Greater China Semiconduct ...

Core Insights - AlphaTON Capital Corp has successfully deployed its first NVIDIA H200 GPUs on Telegram's Cocoon AI Network, marking a significant milestone in decentralized AI computing infrastructure [1][4] - The company is launching the OwnYourNode initiative in partnership with Atlantian Cybernetics Development Cluster (AC|DC), aimed at democratizing access to AI infrastructure ownership [3][5] - The initiative allows individuals and institutions to purchase fractionalized GPUs, whole GPUs, and mini clusters, enabling broader participation in the AI ecosystem [5][6] Deployment and Technology - The H200 GPUs represent advanced AI computing technology from TSMC, Intel, Nvidia, and SuperMicro, providing superior performance for complex machine learning workloads [4] - The deployment adds critical computing capacity to Telegram's decentralized AI infrastructure, supporting its mission to deliver secure AI services to over one billion users [4][9] OwnYourNode Initiative - The OwnYourNode program offers flexible ownership options, including fractionalized GPU ownership for entry-level participants, whole GPU ownership for complete control, and mini cluster solutions for institutions [5][6] - All node owners will benefit from the revenue generated by their computing resources, aligning economic incentives with network growth [6] Strategic Partnership - The partnership with AC|DC is described as a pivotal moment in redefining digital infrastructure, allowing broader participation and collective benefit in the intelligence economy [7][8] - The initiative aims to transform compute from a utility into a shared civic asset, promoting a future where AI benefits are co-created by the communities they serve [9] Company Overview - AlphaTON Capital Corp is a leading technology public company scaling the Telegram super app, with an addressable market of 1 billion monthly active users [10] - The company employs a comprehensive M&A and treasury strategy to generate sustainable returns for shareholders while maintaining governance standards and reporting transparency as a Nasdaq-listed entity [10]

Lumentum Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Lumentum is primarily an infrastructure provider focused on data centers, offering semiconductor components and systems to hyperscalers and data center operators [5][6][10] Core Business Segments - **Lasers and Transceivers**: Lumentum specializes in two main types of lasers used in data centers: Continuous Wave (CW) lasers and Externally Modulated Lasers (EMLs). The company predominantly manufactures EMLs, holding approximately 50% to 60% of the global EML market [9][10] - **Emerging Technologies**: The company is also exploring ultra-high power lasers for scale-up and scale-out applications within data centers [10] Market Dynamics - **Demand vs. Supply**: Lumentum is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, estimating to be 30% behind demand by mid-2026 despite plans to increase capacity by 40% [18][19] - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is virtualizing its indium phosphide fabs to optimize production and meet increasing demand [20][21] Product Development and Trends - **200 Gig EMLs**: The company anticipates that 200 gig EMLs will constitute 10% of volumes in Q1 2026, increasing to 25% by Q4 2026, which will positively impact revenue and margins [22][25] - **Optical Circuit Switches (OCS)**: Lumentum sees significant growth potential in the OCS market, with expectations to grow from $10 million in Q1 to $100 million by Q4 2026 [38][40] Competitive Landscape - **Vertical Integration Risks**: While competitors are exploring vertical integration, Lumentum has opted to focus on components rather than integrated modules, which may mitigate risks associated with competition [16][17] - **Co-Packaged Optics**: The company views co-packaged optics as a growth opportunity, with expectations for material revenue contributions starting in the latter half of 2026 [46][50] Future Outlook - **Growth Drivers**: Lumentum anticipates strong contributions from OCS, scale-out, and scale-up optics in 2026, which are not yet reflected in current financial projections [64][65] - **Market Position**: The company believes its core business, particularly in EMLs and emerging technologies, positions it well for future growth, with optimism about the optics market resurgence [63][66] Key Takeaways - Lumentum is strategically positioned in the data center infrastructure market, focusing on lasers and transceivers, with a strong emphasis on EMLs - The company is addressing supply chain challenges while expanding capacity to meet growing demand - Future growth is expected from new product developments and market opportunities, particularly in OCS and co-packaged optics, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the coming years [64][65]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center)** power systems, highlighting innovations in power supply and distribution, cost breakdowns, and opportunities in energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2][3] Core Insights Power Supply System Innovations - AIDC's power supply systems are evolving to accommodate increasing rack power density due to AI workloads, with projections indicating that by 2028, new cabinet architectures like NVIDIA's Kyber could reach **1MW per rack** [2] - The transition from traditional **415VAC** to **800VDC** systems is prioritized, allowing for higher current capacity, reduced losses, and lower capital expenditures (capex) [2] - Solutions for managing dynamic loads include software-based load management and integrating energy storage systems to buffer power fluctuations [2] Power Distribution System Innovations - The distribution system is shifting from legacy AC architectures to advanced **HVDC** and hybrid models, with four identified stages of evolution [3] - The adoption of **solid-state transformers (SSTs)** is deemed inevitable as they significantly enhance power density and reduce the footprint compared to traditional transformers [3] Cost Breakdown for AIDC Capex - For a **1GW GB200 AIDC**, the capex distribution is as follows: - IT: **57.4%** - Mechanical and electrical infrastructure: **31.9%** - Construction: **11.2%** - Transmission (including transformers): **9.9%** - Backup power (UPS, BBU): **4.6%** - Rack-level power delivery: **0.9%**, increasing with next-gen server platforms [4] SST's Application - SSTs are crucial for the next phase of AIDC power distribution, offering a footprint at least **50% smaller** than traditional solutions and enabling direct medium-voltage DC distribution [5] - Challenges include insulation, heat dissipation, and reliability as power densities increase [5] Backup Power Solutions - The backup power landscape is transitioning from diesel generators and centralized UPS to a mix of gas turbines, BESS, and distributed battery backup units (BBUs) [9] - The adoption of UPS is declining among leading cloud providers, with BESS and BBUs providing faster, modular backup solutions [9] Opportunities in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - ESS are becoming integral for dynamic load management and grid interaction, smoothing power fluctuations and supporting grid stability [10] - The U.S. market is moving towards mandatory storage integration, benefiting suppliers of batteries and related components, although regulatory uncertainties pose challenges for Chinese suppliers [10] Company-Specific Insights Kehua Data Co., Ltd. - Valued at a price target of **Rmb 86.07**, implying a **40x 2026E P/E** ratio [13] - Key risks include weaker-than-expected domestic AI capex and increased competition [13] Shenzhen Kstar Science and Technology - Valued at a price target of **Rmb 64.86**, also implying a **40x 2026E P/E** [14] - Similar risks as Kehua Data, including competition and expansion challenges [14] Additional Important Information - The report includes analyst certifications and disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one of many factors in investment decisions [6][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly in AI and compute, with expectations for strong growth into 2026 [4][19]. Core Insights - AI order books remain robust, with companies like Google and Anthropic reporting significant sales growth, indicating a strong demand for AI-related products [4][6]. - Companies are managing memory constraints effectively, with rising prices prompting adjustments in product specifications and pricing strategies [4][6]. - TSMC anticipates a 45% CAGR in AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029, reflecting strong demand from fabless customers and hyperscalers [19]. Summary by Sections AI and Compute - Companies reaffirmed strong AI order books, with Anthropic scaling sales from US$1 billion to US$7 billion over the past year [4]. - NVIDIA expects US$500 billion in sales through 2026, driven by AI demand and partnerships with companies like Anthropic [4][17]. - Anthropic's B2B-first strategy is yielding significant revenue growth, with a focus on enterprise applications [6][7]. Equipment and Packaging - Applied Materials sees leading-edge logic as the strongest driver for growth, with a projected increase in demand for advanced packaging [8]. - Amkor is optimistic about AI growth from a low base, with expectations for recovery in various sectors including automotive and industrial [6][8]. Hardware and Mobile - Dell reported strong demand for AI servers, with a backlog of US$18.4 billion and expectations for continued growth in 2026 [10]. - Qualcomm anticipates a slowdown in premiumization trends but remains optimistic about future upgrades with new technology [4][10]. Power and Infrastructure - Infineon is targeting US$1.5 billion in AI revenue for FY2025, up from US$700 million, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [12][13]. - Lightmatter is advancing optical interconnect solutions, which could significantly enhance compute efficiency [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to see a mid-30% CAGR in leading-edge logic and DRAM/ HBM wafers, driven by AI and data center demand [8]. - TSMC's proactive capex strategy aims to support the anticipated growth in Cloud AI, with investments projected to reach US$50 billion in 2026 [19].

Investment Ratings - NVIDIA (NVDA): Buy [45] - Applied Materials (AMAT): Buy (CBE) [45] - Microchip Technology (MCHP): Buy [45] - Lam Research (LRCX): Buy [45] - Texas Instruments (TXN): Buy [45] - SiTime (SITM): Buy [45] - Teradyne (TER): Buy [45] - GlobalFoundries (GFS): Neutral [45] - Onsemi (ON): Neutral (CBE) [45] - Qualcomm (QCOM): Neutral [45] - Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Neutral [45] - Western Digital (WDC): Neutral [45] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand, particularly in AI and data center applications, with companies like NVIDIA and Analog Devices (ADI) highlighting robust growth prospects [2][6][24] - NVIDIA's partnerships, especially with Anthropic, are expected to significantly enhance its market position, with a backlog of $500 billion projected through 2026 [2][21] - Applied Materials is gaining improved visibility on customer capacity additions, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor equipment market [3][22] - Microchip Technology reported strong bookings, reflecting broad-based demand across its product lines [4] - Analog Devices is seeing a recovery across all end markets, particularly in AI and automotive sectors, with expectations to outpace market growth [6][24] - Lam Research anticipates a $40 billion market for NAND upgrades, driven by significant bit growth [25] - Texas Instruments is optimistic about long-term growth in data centers and embedded systems, despite short-term visibility challenges [11][26] - GlobalFoundries is benefiting from a recovering consumer environment and strong data center demand, while navigating geopolitical challenges [27] - Western Digital is experiencing strong demand in both traditional and AI data centers, with a focus on improving storage capacities [28] Summary by Company NVIDIA (NVDA) - Strong demand pipeline with a backlog of $500 billion through 2026 [2] - New partnerships, particularly with Anthropic, are expected to drive significant growth [2][21] Applied Materials (AMAT) - Improved visibility on customer capacity additions, indicating a positive market outlook [3][22] - Anticipates strong growth in leading-edge technology and DRAM markets [22] Microchip Technology (MCHP) - Positive pre-announcement of bookings strength, indicating broad-based demand [4] Analog Devices (ADI) - Broad-based recovery across end markets, particularly in AI and automotive [6][24] - Expected to achieve $1 billion in annualized revenue synergies from MXIM by 2026 [6] Lam Research (LRCX) - Anticipates a $40 billion market for NAND upgrades based on significant bit growth [25] Texas Instruments (TXN) - Long-term bullish outlook driven by data center and embedded systems [11][26] GlobalFoundries (GFS) - Strong share in a recovering consumer environment and data center demand [27] Western Digital (WDC) - Strong demand in AI data centers, with a focus on improving storage capacities [28]

Core Insights - Palantir and TWG AI have announced a collaboration with Teton Ridge to integrate real-time AI and computer vision into rodeo events, enhancing the experience for athletes, fans, and partners [1] Company Developments - Teton Ridge, supported by TWG Global, owns the Cowboy Channel and is involved in western sports and media communities [1] - The partnership aims to leverage technology from NVIDIA to elevate the sport experience [1] Industry Impact - The initiative represents a significant step in modernizing rodeo through technology, potentially attracting a broader audience and increasing engagement [1] - The collaboration with PRCA-sanctioned rodeos indicates a commitment to testing and implementing innovative solutions in traditional sports [1]

Summary of China AI Semiconductor Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China AI semiconductor industry**, particularly the advancements in AI chip supply and demand dynamics leading up to 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Strong Performance**: China's AI-related stocks have shown robust performance in 2025, driven by innovations from **DeepSeek** and local AI chip advancements [1]. - **Consolidation Phase**: The market has entered a consolidation phase since October 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth in the AI sector [1]. - **Future Projections**: The supply chain upside is expected to take center stage in 2026, with significant growth anticipated in AI capital expenditures (capex) [2][12]. Financial Projections - **AI Capex Growth**: AI capex is projected to grow at a **25% CAGR** from 2025 to 2028, reaching **USD 172 billion** by 2028 [2][29]. - **Total Capex for CSPs**: Total capex for China’s Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and telecommunications is expected to grow at **13% CAGR**, reaching **USD 267 billion** by 2028 [2][27]. - **Healthy Spending**: Total capex for listed players is only **40-60%** of their free cash flow, indicating healthy spending levels [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Bottlenecks**: The primary bottleneck currently is the constrained local advanced logic production capacity, which limits AI chip output [3]. - **Capacity Expansion**: Advanced logic capacity is expected to accelerate starting in 2026/27, leading to a significant increase in local AI chip sales by 2027/28 [3][55]. - **Market Share Shift**: Local players are projected to capture over **90%** of the market share by 2028, especially as NVIDIA's sales in China are not expected to resume due to ongoing investigations [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **Cambricon**: Upgraded to **Outperform** with a price target of **CNY 2,000**, reflecting strong growth potential due to increased AI chip demand [7][10]. - **Hygon**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **CNY 280**, based on projected earnings growth [7]. - **Hua Hong**: Rated **Outperform** with price targets of **HKD 100** for H-shares and **CNY 140** for A-shares [8]. - **SMIC**: Rated **Outperform** with price targets of **HKD 100** for H-shares and **CNY 150** for A-shares, driven by advanced logic capacity expansion [9]. - **NAURA and Piotech**: Both rated **Outperform** with price targets of **CNY 600** and **CNY 375**, respectively [10]. Investment Implications - **Sector Ranking**: The investment ranking is **AI chip > Semicap > Foundry**, with a strong preference for AI chip vendors like Cambricon due to growth momentum [15]. - **Defensive Stocks**: Semicap stocks are viewed as more defensive with reasonable valuations, benefiting from the shift in memory demand towards local suppliers [4]. Risks and Challenges - **NVIDIA Resumption**: The biggest risk is if NVIDIA resumes sales in China, which could undermine local vendors [14]. - **Market Sensitivity**: Chinese AI stocks may be affected by broader market trends, including potential crashes in US AI stocks [14]. - **Supply Chain Self-Sufficiency**: The advanced logic supply chain is not fully self-sufficient, which could delay capacity expansion in extreme scenarios [14]. Conclusion - The China AI semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth, driven by local innovations and increasing demand for AI chips. However, potential risks from global competitors and market dynamics must be closely monitored.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Energy Storage System (ESS)** industry, particularly in the context of battery technology and its applications in various sectors, including AI Data Centers (AIDC) and renewable energy integration [2][3][7][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global ESS Demand**: Global ESS demand has exceeded expectations, with battery shipments nearly doubling, leading to a **5-10% price increase**. The 2025 global ESS battery shipment forecast has been raised from **380GWh to 595GWh**, a **57% increase**. The 2026 global ESS installation forecast is raised by approximately **30%**, and the battery shipment forecast is increased by **17%**, from **770GWh to 900GWh** [3][16]. - **China's ESS Market**: China's ESS installation forecasts have been raised by **14-32%** for FY25-30E due to strong policy support and a surge in project filings. The expected growth in global ESS installations for 2026 is now projected at **40-60%** compared to previous expectations of **30%** [7][21]. - **AIDC Use Cases**: The emergence of AIDC use cases for ESS is highlighted, with NVIDIA introducing a new power distribution architecture that integrates Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) directly into data center power infrastructure [7][9]. - **Material Price Concerns**: While there are concerns about material price hikes, projections indicate that even if lithium carbonate prices rise significantly, the cost of LFP batteries would remain competitive due to new battery technologies being launched [9][28]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regional Demand Drivers**: The report identifies various drivers for ESS market demand across regions, including: - **Europe**: Strong demand driven by energy integration and substantial government subsidies [30][32]. - **China**: Supported by national targets and provincial government incentives, leading to improved project economics and a surge in project filings [35]. - **US**: Growth driven by data center deployments, grid reliability needs, and renewable energy integration [34][36]. - **Middle East and India**: Rapid growth expected due to national mandates for renewable energy integration and energy storage [38]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks in the ESS value chain, including **Sungrow**, **CATL**, and **LGES**, highlighting their potential to capture market opportunities [9][28]. Conclusion - The ESS industry is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, supportive policies, and increasing demand across various sectors. The integration of ESS in AIDC and the strong momentum in global markets present substantial investment opportunities.

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies Inc. has introduced Chain Reaction, an operating system aimed at enhancing American AI infrastructure [1] - The primary challenge to AI innovation is shifting from algorithms to power and compute resources [1] - The current phase in American energy infrastructure development necessitates software that can operate on a significantly larger scale [1] - Chain Reaction is specifically designed to facilitate the acceleration of AI development in collaboration with energy producers and power distributors [1]