Accessible version Global Memory Tech Weekly theme: memory industry model update, softening DRAM spot, LGE upside Price Objective Change Global DRAM/NAND sales forecasts raised by 25% We updated our global memory+HBM industry model following Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's 4Q25 earnings results. Key changes to our 2026 estimates vs earlier include: 1) 20%+ higher ASPs (for both DRAM and NAND); 2) slightly higher bit growth; 3) capex increase, largely driven by HBM and infrastructure investments (shell f ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the increasing demand for AI is driving a significant rise in the need for advanced memory solutions [1][2] Group 1: AI Demand and Memory Needs - The future of artificial intelligence will be influenced by memory requirements as much as by computing power, with modern AI models necessitating high-speed processing and increased memory capacity [2] - Nvidia is collaborating with all major high-bandwidth memory suppliers, including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, to meet the soaring demand for memory this year [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Manufacturing and Partnerships - Huang refuted claims that 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing capacity has been transferred to the U.S., asserting that global chip production is expanding with new capacities being added in various regions while Taiwan remains a crucial manufacturing hub [4] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is regarded as Nvidia's irreplaceable foundry partner, with Huang highlighting its technology leadership and the need for TSMC to scale capacity significantly over the next decade [5] Group 3: Regulatory and Geopolitical Context - Huang dismissed rumors regarding the approval of Nvidia's H200 AI chips in China, stating that no orders have been placed and final clearance is still pending [6] - The H200 chip has become a focal point in U.S.-China tech tensions, with Washington approving shipments while Beijing has yet to fully clear imports [8]

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) turned in a blockbuster quarter on Thursday, featuring record-breaking iPhone sales in the key holiday quarter. The company topped estimates on the top and bottom lines in the quarter, as revenue jumped 16% to $143.8 billion with iPhone sales up 23% to $85.3 billion. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » Profits also grew by a similar percentage, showing ...

Core Viewpoint - International equities are experiencing a resurgence after a decade of underperformance against the U.S. stock market, with experts suggesting that this opportunity may persist for the foreseeable future [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Market Dynamics - International equities began to outperform U.S. equities in November 2024, achieving approximately 15% better returns since then, marking a significant inflection point despite a decade of lagging performance [4]. - Over the past ten years, global equities outside the U.S. underperformed domestic markets by about 60%, leading to a capital flow into U.S. equities, particularly in mega-cap technology stocks [3]. - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has $26.55 billion in assets and returned 42% over the past year, while the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF is up 20%, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 5% [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Portfolio Allocation - U.S. investor exposure to international markets is estimated to be only 12-15%, significantly lower than the 30-40% representation of international equities in global market capitalization [3]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios, with a suggested allocation of 70% to developed markets and 30% to emerging markets [5]. - The renewed interest in international markets is partly driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, which has improved returns for dollar-based investors holding foreign assets [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Insights and Sector Performance - Japan is highlighted as a key example of improving fundamentals, with corporate governance reforms boosting returns [7]. - Europe is benefiting from lower interest rates, fiscal spending, and regulatory changes, with sectors like banking, utilities, and industrials gaining momentum [8]. - Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, is performing strongly due to rising commodity demand, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) up nearly 49% and the iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (EPU) up almost 118% over the past year [10][11]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The dynamics of global trade are shifting, with international policies from the Trump administration expected to serve as long-term tailwinds for international-themed trades [13]. - The technology sector is also being reassessed, with South Korea's market heavily weighted towards memory chip leaders, which have seen significant gains [14]. - The overall trend reflects a broader reallocation towards international equities after years of neglect, driven by valuation gaps and earnings growth [15].

Core Insights - Kioxia is strategically focusing on the high-density storage demand driven by AI data centers, differentiating itself from competitors heavily invested in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) market [1][2] - The company's stock has surged over 13 times since its IPO in late 2024, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential in the AI storage sector [1] - Kioxia's partnership with SanDisk has been extended, with SanDisk committing to pay Kioxia $1.165 billion over four years, further solidifying Kioxia's market position [4] Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is currently polarized, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix focused on HBM, leading to reduced investment in traditional NAND products [2] - This shift has created opportunities for Kioxia, as the demand for high-performance NAND storage solutions is increasing, allowing for better pricing power [2] - Analysts predict that NAND prices will continue to rise due to a lack of substantial capacity increases in the next 1-2 years, driven by strong AI inference demand [2] Capacity Expansion and Management Changes - Kioxia plans to expand its production capacity at a rate slightly above the overall market growth, with an expected bit growth rate of around 20% this year [3] - A leadership change is underway, with Hiroo Oota taking over as CEO from Nobuo Hayasaka, who successfully led the company through a challenging period [3] - Supply bottlenecks may persist due to cautious capacity expansion by chip manufacturers, with expectations that flash memory factory numbers will not meet market demand until 2027 [3] Financial and Partnership Developments - Kioxia's partnership with SanDisk, which has lasted over 25 years, has been extended until the end of 2034, marking a significant financial commitment from SanDisk [4] - Following the announcement of the partnership extension and positive forecasts from SanDisk, Kioxia's stock rose over 11% [4] - The company has overcome significant challenges, including heavy debt and leadership changes, to achieve its current success [4]

>> THIS IS THE ASIA TRADE. I AM SHERY AHN IN TOKYO. >> THIS IS THE ASIAN TRADE.>> I AM AVRIL HONG IN SINGAPORE. I'M SHERY AHN IN TOKYO. THE TOP STORIES THIS HOUR.>> I'M AVRIL HONG IN TOKYO. >> THERE WAS BROAD SUPPORT ON THE COMMITTEE FOR HOLDING TODAY. APPLE SHARES GAINING AFTER THE BELL'S HOLIDAY SEASON BEATS BROAD, I WOULD SAY, INCLUDING -- VOTERS.HER COURSE, SOME PEOPLE DID NOT WERE EXPECTATIONS -- MEETS EXPECTATIONS. A CAUTIOUS OPEN AHEAD FOR ASIA WANT TO CUT AND DISSENTED BUT THE COMMITTEE PRETTY BROAD ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's recent earnings report initially boosted its stock, making it Europe's most valuable company, but concerns about its ability to fulfill record orders led to a decline in share price, indicating high investor expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML's shares increased by 34% in January and are currently trading at 42 times the 2026 earnings estimates, significantly higher than Nvidia's 25 times [2]. - The company's order backlog is at 38.8 billion euros, but the production of its advanced chip-making machines can take up to a year [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, crucial for producing advanced chip circuitry, which positions it favorably in the market [4]. - Major customers like TSMC are planning significant capacity expansions in 2026, with additional growth expected in 2027 and 2028, which could drive demand for ASML's products [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts are debating ASML's growth potential given its current high valuation of 467 billion euros (approximately $559 billion) [3]. - Some investors express concerns that much of the positive outlook is already reflected in the stock price, leading to discussions about the risk-reward balance of its high multiples [3][7].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 edged up by less than 0.1% and is near its all-time high set earlier this week [4][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 162 points, or 0.3% [4][6] - The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.6%, impacted by losses in large technology stocks [4][6] Company Performance - Microsoft shares fell 10.4% despite reporting stronger-than-expected profit and revenue, as investors were concerned about rising capital expenditure and growth in its Azure cloud business [4][6] - Meta Platforms' stock jumped 8.6% after beating profit expectations, indicating continued heavy investment in AI [4][6] - Tesla traded lower by 0.7% after initially positive results, with CEO Elon Musk urging investors to focus on long-term projects [4][6] - IBM rose 7.1% after exceeding profit and revenue forecasts [5][6] - Southwest Airlines surged 9.7% despite missing profit estimates, driven by a strong outlook for 2026 due to operational changes [5][6] - ServiceNow slid 9.2% even after delivering better-than-expected quarterly profits, as investors trimmed positions following a strong run earlier in the year [5][6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased by 4.5% to $5,579 an ounce, marking a gain of over 25% this year and roughly doubling over the past 12 months [5][6] - The US dollar weakened slightly against major currencies, continuing a broader downtrend [5][6] - Treasury yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield holding at 4.26% [5][6] Economic Context - Markets are digesting the Federal Reserve's decision to pause further interest-rate cuts after three reductions late last year, as inflation remains above the 2% target [5][6] - Stock markets rose across much of Europe and Asia, with South Korea's Kospi gaining 1% to another record, aided by strong advances in chipmaker SK Hynix [5][6]

Core Insights - Emerging markets ETF AVXC has shown strong performance at the start of 2026, driven by key investments in East Asian tech stocks [1] - The fund employs a systematic active investment strategy focusing on high profitability and value metrics, specifically excluding China [1] - AVXC has achieved a return of 11.26% over the last month, indicating a robust start to the year [1] Investment Strategy - AVXC charges a fee of 33 basis points for its investment approach [1] - The fund's strategy includes assessing opportunities based on book value versus operations cash ratios [1] - Investments are weighted by market capitalization and return potential, enhancing the fund's performance [1] Key Holdings - Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. has been a significant contributor, with a stock increase of 35.9% over the last month [1] - SK Hynix has also performed well, returning 31.4% in the same period [1] - MediaTek, a Taiwan-based semiconductor firm, has seen a return of 25.35% recently [1]

Company Earnings - Meta Platforms (META) reported better than expected fourth quarter results and forecast first quarter revenues above analyst estimates, leading to a 9.2% spike in pre-market trading [2] - IBM Corp. (IBM) also exceeded expectations on both top and bottom lines in its fourth quarter results, resulting in a sharp increase in pre-market trading [2] - Tesla (TSLA) reported better than expected fourth quarter results, which may contribute to an upward movement in its stock [2] Market Reactions - Microsoft (MSFT) shares dropped by 6.3% in pre-market trading after reporting slowing cloud computing growth and disappointing third quarter operating margin guidance [3] - Major U.S. stock indexes ended the previous session mixed, with the S&P 500 down 0.57 points, the Dow up 12.19 points, and the Nasdaq up 40.35 points [4] - Gold stocks surged by 2.7% to a new record closing high amid rising gold prices, while computer hardware stocks also saw a 2.6% increase [8][9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly to $56.8 billion in November from a revised $29.2 billion in October, driven by a 5.0% spike in imports and a 3.6% drop in exports [26][27] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 209,000, down 1,000 from the previous week's revised level, while the four-week moving average increased to 206,250 [25][26]