1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比 例的稳定，我们预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，我们 预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。我们预计2026-2027 年优然的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母 牛存栏比例保持在52%。我们以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来测算，据此得出2025-2027 年母牛淘 汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32 万吨， 小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87 万吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东 省奶业协会，我们预计2024 年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5 元/kg，小公牛淘汰价格为22 元/kg。假设 2025/2026/2027 年淘牛价格的涨幅相较2024 年分别为10%/25%/35%，据此得出2025-2027 年优然牧业成 母牛的淘汰将分别为公司带来0.87/1.55/2.75 亿元的利润增量，小公牛淘汰分别带来0.40/0.58/1.03 亿元 的利润增量，合计带来1.27/2.13/3.78 亿元的利润增量。 盈利预测与投资建议 根据乳业时报，2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that YouRan Agriculture (09858) is expected to benefit from the continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry is effectively adjusting market supply through investments in deep processing capacity, which is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of industry capacity and support a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [1][5]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. This reduction is expected to stabilize fresh milk prices and alleviate previous supply excess pressures [1][5]. - The dairy processing industry is expanding deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, thus playing a crucial role in balancing market supply [2][5]. Group 3 - Beef prices have started to reverse, with the average wholesale price in China increasing from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the profitability from culling cows will increase further with rising beef prices, which will also facilitate the further reduction of dairy cow inventory and help achieve a balance in raw milk supply and demand [3][4]. Group 4 - The company projects that from 2025 to 2027, the culling of dairy cows will generate incremental profits of 1.27 billion, 2.13 billion, and 3.78 billion yuan, respectively, based on expected price increases for culled cows [4]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 208.05 billion, 217.22 billion, and 229.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [5].

奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上 涨，淘牛利润有望显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能 出清，共同推动2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 该行据此进行增量利润弹性测算：1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的 低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比例的稳定，该行预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其 中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，该行预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。该行预计2026-2027年优然 的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母牛存栏比例保持在52%。该行以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来 测算，据此得出2025-2027年母牛淘汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32万吨，小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87万 吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东省奶业协会，该行预计2024年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5元/kg，小公 牛淘汰价格为22元/kg。假设2025/2026/2027年淘牛价格的涨 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2024-12-27 2025/3/13 2025/5/29 2025/8/8 2025/10/21 优然牧业 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(港元） | 4.94 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 38.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 192 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 5.12 /1.47 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 71.77 | | | 市盈率 PE | 58.2 | | | 第一大股东 | PAGAC | Yogurt | | | Holding II Limited | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 优 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yuanrong Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary subsidies on specific dairy imports from the EU, imposing tariffs between 21.9% and 42.7% starting December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a shift towards domestic solid dairy processing to alleviate surplus raw milk supply [1] Group 2: Company Implications - Citigroup believes that domestic solid dairy companies, particularly Yili, will benefit from increased demand for raw milk due to these measures, which are expected to enhance the market for high-end and specialty dairy products [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the subsidy rate of nearly 30% significantly raises the cost of related EU imported products, and the immediate execution of the policy reflects the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yurun Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11, following the announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on certain dairy imports from the EU [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on specific dairy products imported from the EU, effective from December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a potential shift towards domestic solid dairy processing businesses [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The measures are expected to boost domestic raw milk demand, particularly benefiting domestic solid dairy companies like Yurun Dairy, which primarily serves clients such as Yili [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the nearly 30% subsidy rate significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products, indicating a strong commitment from authorities to stabilize the market [1]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks showed an upward trend in early trading, with Yurun Agriculture (09858) rising by 4.25% to HKD 5.15 [1][3] - Modern Dairy (01117) increased by 3.80%, reaching HKD 1.64 [1][3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong dairy stocks are rising against the market trend, with Modern Dairy (01117.HK) increasing by 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yuanrong Dairy (09858.HK) rising by 3.44% to HKD 5.11 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% and Yuanrong Dairy (09858) up 3.44% following the announcement of temporary import tariffs on specific dairy products from the EU [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on certain EU dairy imports, effective from December 23 [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, which include fresh cheese, curd, and cream [1] - The lower domestic production costs are expected to replace the EU's market share in these products, helping to alleviate the surplus of raw milk in the domestic market [1] Group 2: Company Implications - Citigroup believes that domestic solid dairy product companies, particularly Yili, which is a major client of Yuanrong Dairy, will benefit from the increased demand for raw milk due to these measures [1] - The high-end and specialty dairy products from Yuanrong Dairy are expected to better meet the upgraded consumption demands of downstream consumers [1] Group 3: Policy Execution - Huachuang Securities noted that the nearly 30% subsidy rate significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products [1] - The policy is set to take effect immediately after its announcement, demonstrating the authorities' commitment to stabilizing the market, with expected rapid transmission of effects to the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks are rising against the trend, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.8% to HKD 1.64 and Yurun Dairy (09858) up 3.44% to HKD 5.11, following the announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on certain dairy imports from the EU [1] Group 1: Government Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-subsidy measures effective from December 23, imposing tariffs between 21.9% and 42.7% on specific dairy products imported from the EU, including fresh cheese, curd, and cream [1] - Citigroup estimates that the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume for the affected products, and domestic production costs are lower than imports, suggesting a potential shift towards domestic solid dairy processing businesses [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The measures are expected to boost domestic raw milk demand, particularly benefiting domestic solid dairy companies like Yurun Dairy, which is a major client of Yili [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that the subsidy rate of nearly 30% significantly increases the cost of related EU imported products, and the immediate execution of the policy reflects the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [1]