来源：@国际金融报微博 伴随着顺丰、圆通、申通、韵达披露2025年12月经营数据，A股四大快递公司的2025年全年数据均已出炉。 1月20日，A股上市的四家主流快递企业均收涨，顺丰控股涨2.37%，圆通速递涨2.75%，申通快递和韵达股份分别收涨1.02%、1.01%。 根据最新披露的月度经营数据，2025年12月，顺丰控股总营收273.39亿元，其中，速运物流业务营收203.78亿元，同比增长3.78%；业务量14.76亿票，同 比增长9.33%；单票收入13.81元/票，同比下跌5.09%；供应链及国际业务营收达到69.61亿元，同比增长2.35%。 从2025年1—12月的全年数据来看，顺丰速运物流业务收入达到2284.52亿元，全年完成业务量166.34亿票。另外，顺丰2025年供应链及国际业务实现营收 727.46亿元。这也意味着，仅这两项业务2025年营收就已经达到3011.98亿元，这也是顺丰首次实现营收超过3000亿元。 | 月份 | 速运物流业务收 | 完成业务量(亿 | 快递服务单票收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 入(亿元) | 票) | 入(元) | ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Ezhou Huahu Airport, led by SF Express, marks a significant breakthrough in China's specialized cargo airport sector, initiating a wave of similar projects by other major express companies [1][2] - The airport, with a total investment of 30.842 billion yuan, is designed to serve as SF Express's aviation headquarters and is compared to FedEx's Memphis hub, featuring advanced facilities including two 4E-level runways and a sorting center capable of processing 280,000 packages per hour [2][3] - The successful model of Ezhou Airport demonstrates the feasibility of deep participation by express integrators, leveraging SF's logistics network to rapidly increase cargo throughput [2][3] Group 2 - The global air cargo demand is projected to grow by 11.3% in 2024, with China's international cargo transport volume expected to increase by 29.3%, prompting express giants to focus on building their own air cargo hubs [3][4] - YTO Express is set to launch its specialized cargo airport in Jiaxing, with a total investment of 15.2 billion yuan, aiming to serve high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce in the Yangtze River Delta [3][4] - China Post is investing over 10 billion yuan in a global aviation hub at Zhengzhou Airport, while ZTO Express is developing a cargo aviation base in Changsha with an investment of 11 billion yuan, indicating a trend of established companies enhancing existing infrastructure [4][5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape among express companies is shifting towards a focus on integrated logistics ecosystems rather than merely expanding fleet sizes, leading to a "survival of the fittest" mentality in the industry [4][5] - The establishment of four major cargo hubs in China aligns with the country's strategic goals, supporting initiatives like the "dual circulation" and "Belt and Road" strategies [5][6] - The differentiation among domestic hubs is evident, with each focusing on specific regional markets and cargo types, thus avoiding homogenized competition and fostering collaborative growth [6][7] Group 4 - Ezhou Airport is expected to drive a trillion-yuan industrial cluster over the next 25 years, while Zhengzhou and Jiaxing airports are also positioned to enhance regional economic development [7] - The current lack of an efficient domestic and international cargo hub system in China highlights the need for improvements in operational efficiency, global network integration, and collaborative mechanisms to elevate the country from a logistics power to a logistics stronghold [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of major express delivery companies in A-shares for the year 2025 has been disclosed, showing varied growth rates and strategic developments among the companies [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - SF Express reported total revenue of 273.39 billion yuan in December 2025, with express logistics revenue of 203.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a total business volume of 1.476 billion packages, up 9.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 64.96 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.48%, with a business volume of 28.84 billion packages, up 9.04% year-on-year [6]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 58.36 billion yuan in December 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 25.01 billion packages, up 11.09% year-on-year [6]. - Yunda Express had a revenue of 46.26 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%, with a business volume of 21.48 billion packages, down 7.37% year-on-year [6]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - SF Express announced a strategic partnership with Jitu Express, involving mutual share purchases, which will enhance resource sharing and collaboration in logistics network development [4]. - SF Express is increasing its share buyback efforts, having repurchased shares worth approximately 10.45 million yuan in mid-January 2025 [4]. - The overall market capitalization reflects the performance differences, with YTO Express leading at 602 billion yuan, followed by Shentong at 212 billion yuan and Yunda at 202 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The express delivery industry faces challenges such as rising operational costs, including labor, transportation, and facility expenses, alongside the need for differentiation in a highly competitive market [7]. - Regulatory pressures and the need for green transformation, including packaging reduction and carbon emission management, are increasing operational complexity and require ongoing investment [7].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: YTO Express (600233) announced that its major shareholder, Hangzhou Haoyue Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., has completed a share reduction plan, transferring 68,450,994 shares, accounting for 2% of the company's total share capital [1][3] - The share reduction plan was initiated on October 17, 2025, with a maximum transfer of 68,450,994 shares through block trading, reflecting the shareholder's strategic and financial planning [3] - The transfer price ranged from 15.74 CNY to 16.37 CNY, with a total transaction amount of 1.089 billion CNY [3] Group 2 - Prior to this reduction, Hangzhou Haoyue held 310,244,613 shares, representing 9.06% of the total share capital, making it the third-largest shareholder of YTO Express [3] - YTO Express's second-largest shareholder is Hangzhou Alibaba Venture Capital Co., Ltd., holding 9.08% of the shares, indicating a relationship between the two entities [3] - This is not the first reduction by Hangzhou Haoyue; a previous reduction occurred on March 12, 2025, where it transferred 68,935,068 shares for a total of 847 million CNY [4] Group 3 - YTO Express reported a revenue of 54.156 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.69%, but the net profit decreased by 1.83% to 2.877 billion CNY [4] - The gross margin was 8.87%, down 7.91% year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.25%, down 11.03% year-on-year [4] - The total sales, management, and financial expenses amounted to 1.08 billion CNY, accounting for 1.99% of revenue, a decrease of 10.89% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - In December 2025, YTO Express reported a revenue of 6.496 billion CNY from express products, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion parcels, up 9.04% [5] - However, the average revenue per parcel decreased to 2.25 CNY, down 1.43% year-on-year [5] Group 5 - As of January 20, 2026, YTO Express's stock price closed at 17.59 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 60.203 billion CNY [6][7] - The stock experienced a 2.75% increase on that day, with a trading volume of 349 million CNY [7]

Core Insights - The logistics sector experienced a rise of 1.43% on January 20, with Milkyway leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Milkyway (603713) closed at 64.44, up 5.81% with a trading volume of 45,800 shares and a transaction value of 293 million [1] - ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.33, up 3.59% with a trading volume of 81,600 shares and a transaction value of 35.29 million [1] - Jianfa Co. (600153) closed at 9.23, up 3.36% with a trading volume of 452,500 shares and a transaction value of 41.5 million [1] - SF Holding (002352) closed at 39.80, up 2.37% with a trading volume of 615,100 shares and a transaction value of 2.441 billion [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.59, up 2.75% with a trading volume of 199,700 shares and a transaction value of 349 million [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 332 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 33.62 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflow into Debon Logistics (603056) with 3.36 billion, accounting for 25.22% of the total [3] - SF Holding (002352) had a main fund inflow of 1.72 billion, representing 7.06% of the total [3] - YTO Express (600233) recorded a main fund inflow of 32.55 million, which is 9.32% of the total [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry faces multiple uncertainties regarding demand and self-discipline policies, but the trend of concentration in market share and profits among leading companies is confirmed [1] Group 1: Company Performance - YTO Express reported a December revenue of 6.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion pieces, up 9.04% year-on-year, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 1.43% to 2.25 yuan [1] - Yunda's December express service revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%, with a business volume of 2.148 billion pieces, down 7.37% year-on-year, and an average revenue per piece of 2.15 yuan, up 5.91% [1] - Shentong Express achieved a December revenue of 5.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion pieces, up 11.09% year-on-year, and an average revenue per piece of 2.33 yuan, up 15.35% [1] - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business in December was 27.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%, with express revenue reaching 20.378 billion yuan, up 3.78% year-on-year, and a business volume of 1.476 billion pieces, up 9.33% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The growth rate of express delivery business volume in December was 2.6%, significantly down due to factors such as price increases, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes [2] - The industry average price in December was 7.94 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating a continued upward trend in pricing amid industry self-discipline [2] - There is a divergence in business volume growth among companies, with Shentong (+11.1%) and SF (+9.3%) showing positive growth, while Yunda (-7.4%) experienced a decline [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][33]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a slowdown in growth in December, with significant differentiation in brand growth rates. The report highlights the need to focus on the "Gain Plan" of SF Express to optimize its structure [1]. - In December, the year-on-year growth rates for business volume were as follows: Shentong (11.1%) > SF Express (9.3%) > YTO (9.0%) > Yunda (-7.4%). For the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to December, the rates were: SF Express (25.4%) > YTO (17.2%) > Shentong (15.0%) > Yunda (7.6%) [6][8]. - Revenue growth in December showed Shentong leading with a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, followed by YTO (7.5%), SF Express (3.8%), and Yunda (-1.5%). The cumulative revenue growth for the year was: Shentong (17.6%) > YTO (12.3%) > SF Express (10.9%) > Yunda (4.7%) [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market value of the express delivery industry is approximately 314.61 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 302.76 billion yuan [3]. Company Performance - SF Express reported a single ticket revenue of 13.81 yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. In contrast, Shentong's single ticket revenue was 2.33 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8]. - The report notes that Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics has positively impacted its revenue growth, with the company expected to benefit from network synergies [6]. Strategic Developments - SF Express has entered a strategic partnership with J&T Express, enhancing its operational capabilities by combining its cross-border advantages with J&T's end capabilities. This collaboration aims to create a more efficient and resilient end-to-end fulfillment system [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued investment opportunities in SF Express, particularly through its "Gain Plan" and collaboration with J&T Express, which is expected to optimize its operational structure and improve cash flow sustainability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry faces multiple uncertainties regarding demand and self-discipline policies, but the trend of concentration in market share and profits among leading companies is confirmed. Companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are recommended, while attention is drawn to the performance elasticity of Shentong Express. Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading position in Southeast Asia and new markets, and SF Express is noted for its management structure and business line adjustments, presenting bottom-fishing opportunities [1]. Group 1: December Performance Reports - YTO Express reported a revenue of 6.496 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion tickets, up 9.04%. The average revenue per ticket decreased by 1.43% to 2.25 yuan [2]. - Yunda's December revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, down 1.49% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.148 billion tickets, down 7.37%. The average revenue per ticket increased by 5.91% to 2.15 yuan [2]. - Shentong Express achieved a revenue of 5.836 billion yuan in December, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion tickets, up 11.09%. The average revenue per ticket rose by 15.35% to 2.33 yuan [2]. - SF Express's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business reached 27.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%. The express business revenue was 20.378 billion yuan, up 3.78%, with a business volume of 1.476 billion tickets, up 9.33%, and an average revenue per ticket of 13.81 yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The growth rate of express delivery business volume in December was 2.6%, significantly down due to multiple factors such as price increases, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes. The State Post Bureau projects an 8% growth rate for express delivery business volume in 2026 [2]. - The industry average price in December was 7.94 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating ongoing price increases amid the anti-involution trend [2]. - There is a noticeable divergence in business volume growth among companies, with Shentong Express (+11.1%) and SF Express (+9.3%) showing positive growth, while Yunda (-7.4%) experienced a decline. Factors like e-commerce taxes are impacting lower-priced merchants more significantly, exacerbating industry differentiation [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the logistics industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among companies, with varying revenue growth rates and business volume changes [2]. - Factors such as price increases in express delivery, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes are impacting the growth rates of express delivery business volumes [2]. - The report anticipates that the overall volume growth in January and February will remain stable compared to the previous year, despite the challenges faced in December [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In December, major express companies reported mixed results: - YTO Express had a revenue of 6.496 billion yuan, up 7.48% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.884 billion tickets, up 9.04% [2]. - Yunda's revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, down 1.49%, with a business volume of 2.148 billion tickets, down 7.37% [2]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 5.836 billion yuan, up 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion tickets, up 11.09% [2]. - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business was 27.339 billion yuan, up 3.41% [2]. Price Trends - The average industry price in December was 7.94 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating a trend of price increases in the express delivery sector [2]. - The report notes that the price changes among companies varied, with SF seeing the highest increase of 0.34 yuan [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to continue benefiting from industry consolidation and price increases [2]. - It also suggests monitoring Shentong Express for its performance elasticity and highlights Jitu Express's growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the aviation industry as flight volumes increase, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival travel season and the performance of airline ticket pre-sales [6][29]. - SF Holding is noted for its high cash reserves and low valuation, suggesting a strong potential for valuation recovery in the near future [6][21]. - The logistics sector is seeing strong resource integration capabilities, with Shimon Logistics preparing for its upcoming IPO [46]. Summary by Sections 1. SF Holding: High Safety Margin and Low Valuation - SF Holding has substantial cash reserves, with cash accounting for 14.2%, 20.5%, and 16.2% of total market value from 2022 to 2024, providing a strong support for stock prices [9][12]. - The expected shareholder return rate for 2025E and 2026E is projected to reach 3.8%, with dividend yields of 2.57% and 2.88% respectively [12][15]. - The current PE ratio of SF Holding is at 18X, close to the market's historical low, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [24][21]. 2. Aviation Tracking: Recovery from Off-Season - Domestic flight volumes increased to 89,086 flights from January 10 to January 16, 2026, a 2.7% rise compared to the previous week, reaching 112% of the 2019 levels [29][30]. - The average daily aircraft utilization rate rose to 7.89 hours, reflecting a 2.1% increase from the previous week [30]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see 5.39 billion railway passengers, a 5% increase year-on-year, which may positively influence airline ticket sales [6][29]. 3. Comprehensive Logistics Companies: Shimon Logistics IPO - Shimon Logistics has established a strong competitive advantage in the logistics sector, providing long-term services to leading global manufacturing companies [46][48]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decline due to reduced demand from major clients [48][51]. - The logistics business is segmented into comprehensive supply chain services and trunk transportation services, with the former accounting for 76% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [48][49]. 4. Continuous Improvement in the Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector saw a slight decline in revenue in November 2025, with a total of 1,376.5 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while the volume increased by 5% [59][62]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.62 yuan, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous month [62][69]. - Companies like SF Holding, Shentong, and Yunda are recommended for their strong performance and potential for price recovery in the express delivery market [80].