聚乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：伊以冲突进一步激化，带动国际油价上涨。受此影响，本周聚乙烯期货拉涨明显。截至2025年6 月20日收盘，L2509合约报收于7415元/吨，较上周收盘上涨2.16%。 基本面：供应端，本周万华、浙石化、中天合创、鄂能化装置停车，榆林、恒力装置重启，产量环比- 0.60%至61.29万吨，产能利用率环比-0.48%至78.69%，较上周变化不大。需求端，本周下游制品平均 开工率环比-0.06%，持续季节性下降。库存方面，生产企业库存环比-1.83%至49.94万吨，社会库存环 比-4.56%至55.93万吨，总库存压力不大。成本利润方面，本周油制LLDPE成本上涨至7756元/吨，油 制工艺亏损加深；煤制LLDPE利润维稳在5848元/吨，煤制利润小幅走阔 ...

聚烯烃：短期或反弹，但趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 LLDPE观点：短期震荡为主 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 5 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 PP：短期或反弹 但趋势仍有压力 ◆ 首先、贸易战因素变换频繁，正因如此当下市场当方面持续下跌在宏观端概率不大，反而在谈判临近尾 声需要警惕。在供应端，6月检修仍偏高，但目前检修量不足以改变供需格局，新增产能大大抵消了供应 端的努力。成本端仍有压力因此短期市场或以震荡市为主，但趋势仍有压力； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to show a weak trend this week. The port market may face a turning point in inventory due to concentrated imports in the second half of the month, and the inland market may decline due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high methanol operating rates [5]. - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 oscillating between 2180 - 2230 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals are neutral. The port market may be suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the inland market may decline due to supply - demand contradictions. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 393,800 tons, with a slight increase of 3,700 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing. The expected price range for this week is 2180 - 2230 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran, low port inventory, the operation of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen on May 16, a planned 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong to be put into production this month, and methanol procurement by CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operating rates, certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production with active sales, and inventory accumulation in some production areas due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The spot price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 699 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 254 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 2264 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 328 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price in Jiangsu is 2242 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong is 2398 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Hebei is 2040 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price in Fujian is 2295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The futures closing price is 2206 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The registered warrants are 1600, with an increase of 1600. The effective forecast is 0, unchanged [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis is 36 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4 yuan/ton. The import spread is 58 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 156 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Hebei is 202 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia is 342 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 74 US dollars/ton, unchanged [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in East China is 80.65%, unchanged. The operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, with a decrease of 2.39%. The operating rate in Southwest China is 44.06%, with a decrease of 1.22%. The operating rate in Northwest China is 81.54%, with a decrease of 3.55%. The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports is 231,100 tons, with an increase of 13,100 tons. The inventory in South China ports is 162,700 tons, with a decrease of 9,400 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Enterprises**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced production, including enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses [58]. - **Foreign Methanol Enterprises**: Some foreign methanol enterprises, especially those in Iran, are in the process of resuming production, while others in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have different operating conditions [59]. - **Olefin Enterprises**: Some olefin enterprises are operating stably, while others are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or have uncertain resumption times. Some new projects are also planned to be put into production [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to show a weak trend this week. The port market may face a turning point in inventory due to concentrated imports in the second half of the month, which will suppress the market. The inland market may decline due to sluggish sales in the traditional off - season and high inventory [5]. - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2180 - 2230 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, but the 20 - day line is downward with the price below the moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which are bearish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants have stopped production, the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into production, and CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, the MTBE start - up rate has dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to sluggish sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has changed, with some prices decreasing. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 3.45% week - on - week. The futures closing price also decreased, and the basis decreased by 16 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - **Inventory data**: As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 39.38 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 0.52 million tons to 24.98 million tons [5]. - **Start - up rate data**: The weighted average national start - up rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - **Profit data**: The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 130 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged [20]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. The maintenance reasons include planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and equipment failures [57]. - **Overseas plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are in different operating states, such as normal operation, start - up after restart, and maintenance [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants using methanol as raw materials are in operation, maintenance, or have plans for future maintenance. For example, some plants in the Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions [59].

Core Insights - Uxunqi has rapidly improved its ranking among China's western counties, moving from 23rd in 2022 to 18th in 2023, and is projected to enter the top 10 in 2024 [3][4] - The region is transitioning from an agricultural base to an industrial powerhouse, focusing on energy projects to enhance its economic structure and drive high-quality development [4][6] Economic Development - Uxunqi aims to leverage six major projects from companies like China Coal, Sinopec, and PetroChina to extend its energy industry chain and elevate its value chain [4][9] - The region's GDP is expected to reach 60.25 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant growth trajectory with multiple large-scale projects underway [6][12] Industrial Projects - The Baofeng project is a key player in Uxunqi's industrial landscape, being the largest coal-to-olefins plant globally, producing over 4,000 tons of olefins daily for various markets [5][6] - The project has achieved full domestic production of its equipment, addressing critical technology challenges and setting multiple industry records [5][6] Technological Innovation - Uxunqi is focusing on modern coal chemical technology innovations, aiming for a nearly 20% reduction in energy consumption while promoting green hydrogen and coal chemical integration [6][11] - The region is also working on enhancing its industrial structure by transitioning from fuel-based to raw material-based coal resources [8][12] Project Pipeline - Uxunqi plans to initiate 33 major projects with a total investment of 151.25 billion yuan, targeting significant advancements in industrial chain development and urban integration [12][14] - The ongoing projects include a 100,000 tons/year liquid sunlight project and a 500,000 tons green ammonia demonstration project, which are part of the broader strategy to cultivate new strategic emerging industries [12][14] Chain Effect - The region is experiencing a "chain effect" where individual projects contribute to a larger industrial ecosystem, enhancing overall economic growth [13][14] - Uxunqi's approach emphasizes the importance of project clustering to create new growth points and strengthen the local economy [7][13]