1. 2月4日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%，标普500指数期货涨0.19%，纳 指期货跌0.11%。 全球软件股恐慌性抛售蔓延!黄仁勋驳斥AI取代软件论，称其"不合逻辑"。在全球软件股于周二遭遇剧烈抛售之后，英 伟达(NVDA.US)CEO黄仁勋驳斥了人工智能将取代软件及相关工具的担忧，称这种想法"不合逻辑"。此次抛售部分源于 AI 开发商 Anthropic 上周发布的聊天机器人更新，这加剧了市场对 AI 驱动的数据和专业服务行业颠覆的恐惧。抛售潮 在周三进一步扩大，波及了印度、日本和中国的软件股。黄仁勋在旧金山由思科系统主办的人工智能会议上发表讲话时 表示，担心 AI 会降低软件公司重要性的想法是误导性的。他认为，AI 将继续依赖现有的软件，而不是从头开始重建基 础工具。 | ■ US 30 | 49,362.20 | 49,456.50 | 49,248.30 | +121.10 | +0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 를 US 500 | 6,930.70 | 6.941.80 | 6,908. ...

Core Message - Equinor is implementing measures to strengthen free cash flow, including a cautious capital spending plan for 2026 and 2027, while maintaining a focus on shareholder returns and oil and gas production growth [6]. Cost Management - The company aims for a 10% reduction in operating expenses (OpEx) and selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) by 2026, with a reported decline influenced by structural changes such as the divestment of Peregrino and the establishment of Adura [1] - Equinor reduced renewables OpEx and SG&A by 27% in 2025, primarily by lowering early-phase costs [1]. Capital Expenditure - Equinor guided to organic capital expenditure (CapEx) of approximately $13 billion in 2026 and $9 billion in 2027, with expected monetization of Empire Wind investment tax credits (ITCs) [2]. - The company reduced its capital spending outlook for 2026 and 2027 by about $4 billion, mainly within power and low carbon sectors, while maintaining oil and gas investments at around $10 billion annually [3]. Production and Financial Performance - Equinor reported a return on average capital employed of 14.5% for 2025, with cash flow from operations after tax of $18 billion and earnings per share of $0.81 [4]. - Total liquids and gas production for 2025 was 2,137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year increase [4]. Project Updates - Empire Wind project is over 60% complete, with total CapEx expected to be around $7.5 billion, of which about $3 billion remains [9]. - The cash effect of tax credits is expected to be around $2.5 billion, with planning assumptions of around $2 billion ITC impact in 2027 [10]. Production Outlook - Equinor anticipates oil and gas production growth of around 3% in 2026, building from record levels in 2025 [12]. - The company made 14 commercial discoveries in 2025 and plans to drill around 30 exploration wells in 2026 [13]. Shareholder Returns - Equinor announced a share buyback program of $1.5 billion for 2026, with an initial tranche of $375 million set to begin shortly after the earnings call [16]. - The quarterly cash dividend has been increased to $0.39 per share, representing more than a 5% increase [15]. Financial Guidance - For 2026, Equinor guided to about $16 billion in cash flow from operations after tax, rising to around $18 billion in 2027 under flat price assumptions [17].

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures up 0.19%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.11% [1][2] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 1.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.24% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil rose 0.44% to $63.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.31% to $67.54 per barrel [3] Software Sector - A panic over AI replacing software is causing a significant sell-off in global software stocks, with Morgan Stanley stating the industry is in a state of "presumed guilty" [4] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that AI will replace software, calling such ideas "illogical" and emphasizing that AI will rely on existing software [5] Geopolitical and Economic Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that geopolitical turmoil may persist for the next decade, prompting clients to diversify investments away from US assets [6] - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned about the risks of basis trading, which could trigger a crisis in the bond market due to leveraged financing [7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $111.45 billion, a 15.53% year-over-year increase, with a focus on Google Cloud's order backlog [8] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) forecasts a 27% increase in sales by 2026, reaching $80-83 billion, driven by strong performance in weight loss and diabetes medications [9] - Uber (UBER.US) reported a 22% increase in Q4 bookings but issued a weak earnings outlook, leading to a 6% drop in stock price [10] - AMD (AMD.US) reported a 34% increase in Q4 sales but expressed concerns over Q1 forecasts, which fell short of market expectations [11] - Lumentum (LITE.US) exceeded expectations with Q2 revenue of $665 million, a 65% increase, and provided strong guidance for Q3 [12] - Electronic Arts (EA.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue below expectations but strong pre-order numbers driven by the release of "Battlefield 6" [13] - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance [14] - Novartis (NVS.US) warned of profit declines in 2026 due to increased competition from generics [15] - UBS (UBS.US) reported a 56% increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a $3 billion stock buyback plan [16] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US ADP employment change, durable goods orders, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI [20][21][22][23]

Core Insights - Equinor reported lower earnings in Q4 2025 compared to the previous year, impacted by weaker liquids prices and impairment charges, despite achieving record annual production and outlining measures to enhance cash flow and competitiveness [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income for Q4 reached $6.2 billion, a decrease from the same period in 2024, while adjusted net income was $2.04 billion, translating to adjusted earnings per share of $0.81; reported net income stood at $1.31 billion, supported by higher production and stronger U.S. gas prices, which partially offset lower oil prices and impairments [2] - For the full year, Equinor generated $18.0 billion in cash flow from operations after tax, with organic capital expenditure totaling $13.1 billion in 2025; the company plans to reduce its organic capex outlook for 2026 and 2027 by $4 billion, mainly in power and low-carbon activities, while maintaining annual oil and gas investments around $10 billion [7] Production and Operations - Equinor achieved record equity production of 2.14 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for the full year, a 3.4% increase from 2024; Q4 production rose 6% year-on-year to 2.20 million boepd, driven by strong performance on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) and higher output from U.S. onshore gas assets [3] - On the NCS, quarterly production increased 5% year-on-year, supported by new fields such as Johan Castberg, Halten East, and Verdande, which offset unplanned maintenance at Johan Castberg; full-year NCS production rose 2% compared to 2024 [4] - International production was influenced by portfolio changes, with higher output from the U.S. and new wells in Argentina and Angola, partially offset by exits from Nigeria and Azerbaijan in 2024 and the sale of a 40% operated interest in Brazil's Peregrino field late in 2025; the start-up of the Bacalhau field offshore Brazil contributed new volumes and long-term cash flow potential [5] Renewables and Future Outlook - In power and renewables, Equinor generated 5.65 TWh in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in offshore wind output as Dogger Bank A ramped up; the company also advanced battery storage in the U.S. and hybrid wind-solar projects in Brazil, although impairment charges in renewables reflected revised assumptions for future offshore wind developments in the U.S. [6]

智通财经APP获悉，受油气价格下跌影响，挪威国家石油公司(EQNR.US)四季度利润不及分析师预期， 公司因此也缩减了股票回购计划。 财报显示，该公司Q4经调整后的税后营业利润降至15.5亿美元，低于分析师平均预期的15.9亿美元。净 利润从上年同期的20亿美元下降至13.1亿美元。 这家挪威能源巨头周三同时宣布，今年的股份回购规模将缩减至15亿美元，低于2025年50亿美元的水 平。 自2022年俄乌冲突推高能源价格、为行业带来巨额利润后，挪威国家石油公司曾是众多向股东输送过剩 现金的油气生产商之一。如今，随着市场供应充足、价格走弱，部分企业正开始寻求缩减回报规模。 挪威国家石油公司表示，2025年石油与天然气产量增长3.4%，日均产量达到214万桶油当量，创历史新 高，第四季度产量同比增长6%。其中，旗下新投产的Johan Castberg油田与巴西Bacalhau油气开发项目 均为产量增长贡献显著，公司预计，2026年产量将实现约3%的增幅。 得益于第三方业务量提升，公司营销、中游及加工板块(MMP)经调整后的营业利润达6.78亿美元。值得 一提的是，该公司去年10月曾下调该板块季度业绩指引，称后续目标 ...

Core Viewpoint - Equinor has proposed a cash dividend of 0.39 USD per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, pending approval at the annual general meeting on 12 May 2026 [1]. Group 1: Dividend Details - Cash dividend amount is set at 0.39 USD per share [1]. - The last day to include rights for the dividend is 12 May 2026 [1]. - The ex-date for Oslo Børs is 13 May 2026, and for the New York Stock Exchange, it is 15 May 2026 [1]. - The record date for the dividend is 15 May 2026 [1]. - The payment date for the dividend is scheduled for 27 May 2026 [1]. - The proposed cash dividend is subject to approval by the annual general meeting of Equinor ASA on 12 May 2026 [1]. Group 2: Additional Information - The cash dividend per share in NOK will be communicated on 21 May 2026 [2]. - This information is published in accordance with the requirements of the Continuing Obligations and is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 in the Norwegian Securities Trading Act [2].

Core Insights - The decline in oil prices over the past year has negatively impacted the earnings of major oil companies, with prices around $60 per barrel compared to $100 in 2022 and $80 in 2023 and 2024, indicating that shareholder returns may not be sustainable going forward [1] Group 1: Impact on European Oil Majors - European oil firms may announce cuts to their share buybacks in response to lower oil prices [2] - Analysts predict that European majors could reduce buybacks by 10% to 25% due to sustained low oil prices [6] - Companies like BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Eni are expected to report lower earnings for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, influenced by low liquids prices and reduced chemicals margins [7] Group 2: Comparison with U.S. Peers - U.S. supermajors, such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, have maintained their share repurchase programs and reiterated buyback plans through 2026 under reasonable market conditions [3] - Unlike European firms, U.S. companies have not shifted their focus away from oil production, maintaining high-margin assets [4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - European majors are currently adjusting their strategies to focus back on oil and gas while reducing investments in renewables [4] - TotalEnergies has indicated plans to lower buybacks for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026, aligning with hydrocarbon prices and refining margins [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements and challenges in offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in Europe, highlighting the importance of integrated systems and collaborative efforts among various stakeholders in the industry [6][18]. Group 1: Project Developments - Petrofac has been awarded a 12-month front-end engineering design (FEED) contract for the Aramis project, which involves developing a CO₂ transport and offshore storage system [3]. - The Aramis project includes a 200km offshore CO₂ pipeline with a design capacity of 22 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), linking the Port of Rotterdam to depleted gas reservoirs in the Dutch North Sea [2]. - The Northern Lights project in Norway serves as a global reference for open-access offshore CCS, demonstrating a scalable, ship-based model for CO₂ transport and storage [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Offshore CCS is transitioning from pilot initiatives to full-scale infrastructure development, with a focus on integrated transport and storage systems capable of handling millions of tonnes of CO₂ annually [6]. - The APOLLOCO₂ project aims to establish large-scale CCS infrastructure in southern Europe, securing €169.3 million ($201.9 million) in funding from the EU Innovation Fund [14][17]. - The upcoming DECARBON 2026 congress will address the integration challenges of offshore CCS and the need for flexible approaches to accommodate various industrial clusters and regulatory environments [18][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The second-phase expansion of the Northern Lights project will increase its transport and storage capacity to at least 5 mtpa of CO₂, positioning it as a central element in Europe's offshore CCS network [11]. - The integration of CCS with broader oil and gas decarbonisation strategies is becoming increasingly important, influencing investment decisions across the sector [19]. - Discussions at DECARBON 2026 will focus on accelerating deployment and moving towards commercially sustainable CCS systems [20].

Core Viewpoint - Oil markets are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties driven by U.S. President Trump's comments on Iran and mixed signals regarding India's stance on Russian crude imports [1][5][10] Oil and Natural Gas Prices - As of February 3, 2026, WTI is priced at $62.67 per barrel, Brent at $66.70, Murban at $67.57, and Natural Gas at $3.330 per MMBtu [2] U.S. Rig Count - The total U.S. rig count as of January 30, 2026, is 546, down from 582 a year ago, with a gas rig count of 411 and a net change of +2 from the previous week [3] Rigs per Basin - The Permian basin has 242 rigs, with a net decrease of 2, while the Haynesville and Cana Woodford basins saw increases of 1 and 5 rigs, respectively [4] Market Dynamics - January 2026 oil prices were consistent with the previous year's levels, with ICE Brent averaging $64.7 per barrel and closing at $70.7, despite predictions of oversupply [5] - Open interest in ICE Brent futures reached a record high of 2.65 million contracts on January 26, 2026, although it has since decreased by over 200,000 contracts [6] Company Movements - Equinor has agreed to sell its onshore business in Argentina's Vaca Muerta for $1.1 billion, while Shell's Nigerian subsidiary will suspend production at the Bonga field for maintenance [7] - Excelerate Energy is set to develop a 1.5 mtpa LNG import terminal in India, marking a significant step in the country's LNG infrastructure [8] Geopolitical Influences - Trump's comments regarding Iran and the U.S.-India trade deal are creating uncertainty in the oil markets, particularly concerning Russian oil exports [9] - OPEC+ has decided to maintain production quotas in March 2026, citing lower global oil demand in the first quarter [10]

Core Viewpoint - Equinor has agreed to sell its onshore assets in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin to Vista Energy for approximately $1.1 billion, which includes a cash payment and contingent payments based on production and oil prices over five years [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The sale includes a 30% non-operated stake in the Bandurria Sur licence and a 50% non-operated stake in the Bajo del Toro asset [1]. - Equinor will receive an upfront cash payment of $550 million and shares in Vista upon closing [1]. - The transaction is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2025, and does not impact Equinor's offshore holdings in Argentina [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale is part of Equinor's strategy to enhance financial flexibility and focus on core international markets, with expectations of production and cash flow growth by 2030 [2][3]. - Equinor's production from Bandurria Sur averaged 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, while Bajo del Toro contributed 2,100 boepd in Q3 2025 [3]. - The company retains optionality through its offshore positions in Argentina, which include exploration licences acquired in 2019 [4]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Equinor's international portfolio is expected to expand, particularly through operations in Brazil, the US, and the UK [2]. - The offshore exploration licences in Argentina are currently undergoing subsurface evaluation to identify commercially viable opportunities [4]. - Recent discoveries in the Norwegian North Sea indicate ongoing exploration success, with initial estimates of recoverable oil equivalent at the Lofn prospect ranging from 3.5 to 10 million standard cubic metres [5].