证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 逢高配置 [Table_Summary] ► 高波开局，利空情绪释放 新年第一周，债市经历了大幅的止盈或止损行情，这一现象在年初时 点，并不常见。异动背后，或多是情绪作祟，机构卖债的实际诉求可能并 非负债端出现了超预期波动，亦或是其他的短期用款需求。而是在 2025 年多轮调整行情的疤痕效应下，债市投资者对于眼前的各种不确定性或更 加敏感，普遍倾向于提前卸掉久期风险，年初轻装上阵。波动始于情绪， 也容易终于情绪，因而 8-9 日的债市初步修复，其实也并没有强利多逻辑 作为支撑。 观察机构久期变化，以代表性较强的利率债基久期中枢为参考，1 月 以来稳定版本（40 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果，从 3.58 年渐进回 落至 3.37 年，位于 2025 年以来 4.8%的较低分位数，且与低点 3.31 年相 差无几。灵敏版本（15 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果为 3.46 年，同 处于 2025年以来的地分位数 14.1%。两组数据均可反映，债市2026年开 局，便已经处于低风险状态，机构的担忧情 ...

Core Viewpoints - The latest strategies from top brokerages indicate a bullish sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like technology, traditional manufacturing, and resource pricing power [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a "rally" phase, with significant trading volume and a risk appetite resurgence, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory until the Spring Festival, driven by favorable macroeconomic indicators and increased participation from institutional investors [3][4][11][13] Group 2: Sector Focus - Brokerages recommend focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and market trends [3][7][12][14] - Traditional manufacturing and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential in pricing power enhancement, with suggestions to increase allocations in non-bank financials [2][4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, suggesting a mix of growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and price recovery in industries such as chemicals and metals [7][8][14] - The importance of monitoring market sentiment and performance metrics is stressed, particularly as the market enters a period of earnings announcements and potential volatility [12][13]

Group 1 - Major brokerages have released their latest strategic views, focusing on resource and traditional manufacturing pricing power, with a bullish outlook for the spring market [1][2] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong PMI and inflation data, as well as increased willingness of external funds to enter the market [2][3] - The market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4100 points, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a strong performance of technology and cyclical growth sectors, with a focus on themes such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [4][5] - The current market environment suggests a potential for continued upward momentum, driven by liquidity and favorable policies, with a recommendation to focus on sectors like AI applications and renewable energy [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain its heat in the short term, with policy support likely to bolster investor confidence and attract various types of capital [8][9] Group 3 - The "fifteen five" planning year is anticipated to bring focus to new productivity sectors, with technology innovation and growth sectors expected to see significant opportunities [12] - Key investment themes include industrial metals and chemicals, driven by price recovery expectations and structural improvements in supply and demand [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, supported by systemic policy deployments and increasing capital inflows [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxi Securities indicates that the bull market may continue, with a favorable spring trading window for A-shares as market turnover surpasses 3 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A-shares have broken through the upward midpoint of fluctuations, suggesting a positive trend in the market [1] - The PMI and inflation data for December 2025 are better than expected, providing fundamental support for the spring market [1] Group 2: Capital Inflows - There is a significant recovery in the willingness of external funds to enter the market, with accelerated inflows of financing and foreign capital since the beginning of the year [1] - Anticipation of further inflows from insurance funds and resident funds is expected [1] Group 3: Catalysts for Growth - Events in the technology sector around the Chinese New Year are expected to maintain market risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 China Chief Economist Forum held in Shanghai emphasized the theme "Chess in the Middle Game: Building a Strong Nation" and highlighted the formation of a policy framework aimed at regulating listings, increasing delisting efforts, encouraging dividends from listed companies, and promoting long-term capital inflow into the market [1][2]. Group 1 - The current market environment has established a framework that includes strict listing regulations, enhanced delisting measures, and encouragement for companies to distribute dividends, alongside efforts to attract long-term capital [1][2]. - The stock market has shown signs of a slow bull market, as evidenced by its performance over the past year and the beginning of the current year [1][2]. - A significant change noted by investors is the establishment of a lower limit in the stock market, which is considered crucial for market stability [1][2]. Group 2 - The future focus should be on maintaining the upward trajectory of the market while ensuring that the downward limits are secured, with expectations for the index to rise from 3800 to 4000 points [1][2]. - If the Shanghai Composite Index can achieve these lower limits, the attractiveness of the stock market is expected to increase significantly [1][2].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在金融行业里，各大券商首席的朋友圈从来不是私人空间。 浙商证券（601878.SH）大固收组长、固收首席分析师覃汉，显然是低估了这一点。 2025年11月20日，在浙商证券举办的活动上，覃汉进行2026年债市策略展望主题发言。 来源：财通社 一条朋友圈引起巨大风波 时间回到2025年12月17日，第23届新财富最佳分析师评选结果揭晓。 在固定收益研究领域，浙商证券覃汉团队排名第五。 | | | 固定收益研究 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 机构 | | FIRY | 后关 | | 1 | 华泰证券 | 研究小组(张继强、仇文竹、股超、吴 宇航、陶冶、文晨昕、吴靖、朱沁宜、 | 40340.296 | | | | 方翔宇、王晓宇) | | | 2 | 华西证券 | 研究小组(刘郁、姜丹、田乐蒙、肖金 川、黄晓曦、郑日诚、黄佳苗、董远、 | 31481.596 | | | | 曾禹童、钱青静) | | | 3 | | 研究小组(黄伟平、栾强、杨雪芳、徐 | 29564.247 | | | 申万宏源证券 ...

Group 1 - The company Weiman Sealing announced that it will accept investor research on January 9, 2026, with the company’s board secretary Liu Zhengshan participating in the reception and answering investor questions [1] Group 2 - More than 20 provinces have revealed their mechanism electricity prices, with Shanghai being 84% higher than Shandong and Zhejiang 31% higher than Liaoning [1] - Experts indicate that there is still room for reduction in corporate electricity costs [1]

华西证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者 公开发行公司债券（第一期） 信用评级报告 | 信用评级报告 | | --- | | www.lhratings.com | 联合〔2025〕10069 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司通过对华西证券股份有限公司及其 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期）的信用状况进 行综合分析和评估，确定华西证券股份有限公司主体长期信用等级 为 AAA，华西证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行 公司债券（第一期）信用等级为 AAA，评级展望为稳定。 特此公告 联合资信评估股份有限公司 评级总监： 二〇二五年十二月三十日 八、任何机构或个人使用本报告均视为已经充分阅读、理解并同意本声 明条款。 声 明 一、本报告是联合资信基于评级方法和评级程序得出的截至发表之日的 独立意见陈述，未受任何机构或个人影响。评级结论及相关分析为联合资信 基于相关信息和资料对评级对象所发表的前瞻性观点，而非对评级对象的事 实陈述或鉴证意见。联合资信有充分理由保证所出具的评级报告遵循了真 实、客观、公正的原则。鉴于信用评级工作特性及受客观条件影响，本报告 在资料信息获取、评级方 ...

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华西证券股份有限公司 （住所：中国（四川）自由贸易试验区成都市高新区天府二街 198 号） 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第一期） 募集说明书摘要 | 注册金额： | 不超过 100 亿元（含） | | --- | --- | | 发行金额： | 不超过 亿元（含） 20 | | 担保情况： | 本期债券无增信措施 | | 信用评级结果： | AAA/AAA | | 发行人： | 华西证券股份有限公司 | | 主承销商/受托管理人/簿记管理人： | 西南证券股份有限公司 | | 信用评级机构： | 联合资信评估股份有限公司 | 签署日期：2026 年 月 日 华西证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期）募集说明书摘要 声明 本募集说明书摘要的目的仅为向投资者提供有关本次发行的简要情况，并 不包括募集说明书全文的各部分内容。募集说明书全文同时刊载于深圳证券交 易所网站（http://www.szse.com.cn）。投资者在做出认购决定之前，应仔细阅读 募集说明书全文，并以其作为投资决定的依据。 除非另有说明或要求，本募集说明书摘要所用简称和相关用语与募集说明 书相 ...