2026 年银行板块投资策略：从业务与业绩角度看稳健性； 两条选股主线 20251222 摘要 银行业整体盈利预计保持小幅增长，2028 年 ROE 仍有望维持在 8%- 9%区间，年底年初是较佳投资窗口期，险资增量资金配置确定性高，明 年营收边际改善确定性较高，息差降幅收窄将支撑净利息收入。 选股逻辑聚焦高 ROE 优质城商行（如江苏银行、南京银行等）和高股息 品种（如招商银行、中信银行等），前者规模增长确定性强且营收弹性 大，后者适合阶段性防御策略。 2026 年信贷动能依赖新型工业化、科技创新、新基建及传统产业升级， 绿色信贷和科创贷款占比提升空间大，科技型中小企业贷款同比增速保 持较高水平。 地产和消费对银行业绩贡献有限，地产需超预期政策才能企稳，消费主 要依靠政策托底，内生动力仍需加强，零售相关需求偏弱。 预计 2026 年净息差将在个位数区间内波动，降幅小于今年，净利息收 入有望实现小幅正增长，优质区域城农商行可能超预期。 对于地产和消费领域，您怎么看待其对银行业绩的影响？ Q&A 2026 年银行板块的总体投资策略和选股逻辑是什么？ 总体来看，2026 年银行板块的投资策略主要关注绝对收益，预计 ...

进入12月份，银行理财行业渠道拓展动作频频。中银理财、建信理财、招银理财、民生理财等多家理财 公司先后新增代销合作机构，合作范围的变化引发行业关注。此前，理财公司的代销合作多集中于一二 线城市的城农商行，如今已经逐步覆盖三线以下城市及县域层级的城农商行，渠道下沉趋势凸显。 推进县域布局 苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言向《证券日报》记者表示，理财公司年末集体下沉布局县域市场，核心原因 是寻求新增长。近年来，一二线市场趋近饱和，而县域居民财富管理需求随着收入提升正快速释放，其 偏好稳健的特性与理财公司产品定位天然契合。同时，在监管引导下，大量无法设立理财公司的中小银 行正在压降自营理财，急需通过代销业务转型，这为理财公司提供了低成本扩张的渠道网络。此举也可 帮助理财公司减少对母行销售的依赖，实现业务分散。此外，这一趋势正推动银行理财行业格局从"母 行依赖"转向"多渠道协同"，并促使市场角色分化，头部机构凭借规模优势主导，中小银行的理财公司 则通过灵活策略深耕细分市场。 市场竞争加剧 2025年以来，下沉县域市场成为国内银行理财公司的核心布局方向。银行业理财登记托管中心发布的 《中国银行业理财市场季度报告(2025年三季 ...

12月18日午后，银行股反弹，板块内全线飘红。上海银行涨近3%，苏州银行、厦门银行、杭州银行涨 超2%，建设银行、渝农商行、南京银行、江阴银行涨幅居前。 随着2026年日益临近，银行股的业绩走向与结构分化逻辑再次成为机构研报的核心议题。 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，银行业的经营环境与投资逻辑将如何演变？对于投资者而言，机会藏于 何处？ 近期，多家券商密集发布年度展望，普遍认为在宏观政策托底、息差有望筑底以及存量风险持续缓释的 背景下，2026年上市银行整体业绩大概率将步入温和修复通道。 然而，几乎所有机构都同时强调，行业内部的结构性分化将成为未来一年的主旋律，马太效应加剧，具 备独特客户优势、负债成本管控能力或特定区域禀赋的银行，将有望领跑新一轮周期。 综合各家观点，一个明确的预期正在形成，即行业净息差有望在2026年触底并逐步趋稳。支撑这一判断 的共同逻辑在于，存款成本在监管引导与自然重定价下有改善空间，而资产端收益率的下行压力预计将 有所减缓。 机构普遍指出，这一改善过程将更利好于负债基础扎实、活期存款占比高的大型银行，以及部分存款成 本改善空间较大的中小银行。 业绩温和修复成共识，内部分化已成定局 对 ...

12月18日，A股市场银行股普涨，其中，苏州银行、厦门银行、上海银行、杭州银行、江阴银行、建设 银行、渝农商行涨超2%。张家港行、南京银行、江苏银行、齐鲁银行、长沙银行、青岛银行、重庆银 行涨近2%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002966 | 苏州银行 | | 2.97 | 372亿 | 7.50 | | 601187 | 厦门银行 | | 2.66 | 203亿 | 42.62 | | 601229 | 上海银行 | 1 | 2.65 | 1431亿 | 15.96 | | 600926 | 杭州银行 | 1 | 2.30 | 1129亿 | 11.09 | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | | 2.18 | 115亿 | 15.03 | | 601939 | 建设银行 | 1 | 2.24 | 23884 乙 | 11.04 | | 601077 | 渝农商行 | 兼 | 2.08 | 725亿 | 10.53 | | 002839 | 张家港行 | | 1.97 | 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a broad increase in bank stocks, indicating positive market sentiment towards the banking sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Suzhou Bank, Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangyin Bank, China Construction Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank all experienced gains exceeding 2% [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, Changsha Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Chongqing Bank saw increases close to 2% [1]

2023年中央金融工作会议指出，要做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文 章。科技金融作为"五篇大文章"之首，在金融强国建设和社会主义现代化进程中的地位举足轻重。党的 二十届四中全会提出，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力。在此背景下，临沂金融监管分 局紧跟上级发展部署，立足沂蒙老区产业特色，持续完善同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制机制，推 动"科技—产业—金融"良性循环。截至2025年9月末，临沂科技型企业贷款余额达927.27亿元，较年初 新增107亿元，同比增长13%；高新技术企业贷款余额787.25亿元，增速17.5%，为助力创新型城市建设 注入强劲金融动能。 政策协同 锚定科技发展"路线图" 作为工业大市，临沂市规模以上工业企业数量居山东省前列，自2024年实施"翅膀工程"以来，围绕装备 制造等13条工业标志性产业链，持续推进创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链深度融合。截至2025年10月 末，全市科技型企业总量达3213家，各层级专精特新企业1070家，数量位居全省第四，形成传统产业升 级与新兴产业突破并行的产业格局，为科技金融落地提供坚实产业基础。 临沂金融监管分局协同市 ...

2023年中央金融工作会议指出，要做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇 大文章。科技金融作为"五篇大文章"之首，在金融强国建设和社会主义现代化进程中的地位举足轻重。 党的二十届四中全会提出，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力。在此背景下，临沂金融监 管分局紧跟上级发展部署，立足沂蒙老区产业特色，持续完善同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制机制， 推动"科技—产业—金融"良性循环。截至2025年9月末，临沂科技型企业贷款余额达927.27亿元，较年 初新增107亿元，同比增长13%；高新技术企业贷款余额787.25亿元，增速17.5%，为助力创新型城市建 设注入强劲金融动能。 政策协同 锚定科技发展"路线图" 作为工业大市，临沂市规模以上工业企业数量居山东省前列，自2024年实施"翅膀工程"以来，围绕 装备制造等13条工业标志性产业链，持续推进创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链深度融合。截至2025年 10月末，全市科技型企业总量达3213家，各层级专精特新企业1070家，数量位居全省第四，形成传统产 业升级与新兴产业突破并行的产业格局，为科技金融落地提供坚实产业基础。 产品创新 打通成果转化 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the need to build an adaptive service ecosystem for technology finance, focusing on the alignment of financial services with the varying needs of technology enterprises at different development stages [1] - There is a trend towards a diversified relay-style financial service ecosystem involving various financial institutions such as PE, VC, banks, and insurance to meet the financing needs of technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle [1][2] - Banks play a crucial role not only as fund providers but also as facilitators that gather resources from different financial institutions to support technology enterprises [2] Group 2 - The recent acceleration in the issuance of AIC licenses to banks is expected to enhance their ability to provide precise and professional financing support to technology enterprises [2] - Despite favorable policies, bank-affiliated AICs face challenges such as high capital requirements for equity investments and a tendency to favor later-stage projects over early-stage startups [3] - Local banks, while not directly benefiting from AIC licenses, can leverage their local market knowledge and agility to better serve small and early-stage technology enterprises [4] Group 3 - Banks need to enhance their understanding of technology innovation and the specific needs of technology enterprises to effectively engage in technology finance [5] - The establishment of a "loan research system" akin to the investment research system in equity investment is essential for banks to improve their service capabilities in technology finance [5] - Differentiated assessment and incentive mechanisms are necessary to encourage frontline staff to engage in technology finance, given the complexities and uncertainties involved [5] Group 4 - The exit strategies in equity investment, particularly for bank-affiliated AICs, face significant challenges, necessitating improvements in the market exit mechanisms [6][7] - Policy improvements are needed to enhance the exit channels for equity investments, including optimizing merger and acquisition processes and developing secondary funds for easier exits [7] - Collaborative efforts among financial, fiscal, and technology departments are crucial to transform the social effects of innovation into economic benefits, thereby reducing costs for technology enterprises [8][9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need to build an adaptable service ecosystem for technology finance, focusing on the alignment between financial supply and the diverse needs of technology enterprises at different development stages [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Ecosystem Trends - The financing needs of technology enterprises vary across their lifecycle stages, requiring different types of financial support from various institutions such as venture capital, banks, and insurance [3][4]. - The current financing structure in China is predominantly indirect, with banks playing a crucial role in supporting technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle [4][5]. Group 2: Role of Banks and Financial Institutions - Banks are not only fund providers but also play a guiding role in aggregating resources from different financial institutions to support technology enterprises [4][5]. - The recent expansion of Asset Investment Company (AIC) licenses allows banks to provide integrated financial services, combining funding and capital support for technology innovation [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities for Local Banks - Local banks, despite not having direct access to AIC licenses, can leverage their local information advantages and agile decision-making to better serve small and early-stage technology enterprises [6][7]. - Local banks should enhance their understanding of technology innovation and develop specialized research capabilities to improve their service offerings in technology finance [8]. Group 4: Enhancing Service Capabilities - Banks need to establish a differentiated assessment and incentive mechanism to support the complexities of technology finance, ensuring that frontline staff are motivated to engage in this area [8][9]. - A specialized approval mechanism is necessary for banks to efficiently manage the unique characteristics of technology enterprises, which often involve high-tech and asset-light models [8][9]. Group 5: Exit Strategies in Equity Investment - The exit phase in equity investment is critical, with current methods such as IPOs and mergers facing significant challenges, necessitating improvements in exit channels [9][10]. - Policy and market improvements are needed to create a more favorable environment for investment exits, including enhancing the inclusivity of various market platforms [11][12]. Group 6: Collaborative Efforts from Regulatory Bodies - Regulatory bodies should facilitate collaboration among finance, technology, and fiscal departments to convert the social effects of innovation into economic benefits for technology enterprises [12][13]. - Financial institutions should be incentivized to support technology enterprises through various funding mechanisms, including risk-sharing funds and technology financial rewards [12][13].

2026 年度策略会年度策略报告巡礼之金融篇 20251217 摘要 2025 年证券板块内部出现分化，A 股广发证券表现最佳，H 股广发证券 涨幅显著，而部分股票如国联民生、财富趋势、招商证券则出现下跌， 反映市场对不同券商的业绩和发展前景存在差异化预期。 2026 年证券行业展望：各类资金持续入市，推动成交量维持高位；经 纪业务受益于客户保证金扩张和线上获客能力提升；两融余额预计提升， 增加利润贡献；资管业务通过丰富投资策略和向主动管理转型提升业绩。 保险资金入市方面，大型国有保险公司新增保费的 30%需投资股票，居 民存款搬家潜力巨大，有望推动增量资金入市。经纪业务收入与利润贡 献预计保持重要地位，线上化、AI 化趋势明显。两融余额持续增长，资 管业务需通过丰富投资策略及向主动管理转型来提升业绩。 2025 年前三季度港股日均成交额同比增长显著，南向资金占比提升， 港股 IPO 发行大幅增长，A 股上市公司赴港二次 IPO 占比超 70%。预计 港股市场发行将持续扩张，美联储降息将保持港股流动性充裕。 2025 年 A 股保险股表现平稳，港股保险股超额收益显著，受顺周期属 性和高估值性价比驱动。新华保险 ...