Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - Infrastructure investment showed weakness in September, but the fourth quarter may benefit from increased funding and policy catalysts. The report highlights the importance of infrastructure as a stabilizing measure for the economy, with a focus on undervalued, high-dividend construction stocks [1][2] - The real estate sector saw a decline in sales area by 5.5% year-on-year from January to September, with a significant drop of 21.3% in September alone. However, the completion rate for real estate projects turned positive for the first time since 2024, indicating a potential recovery [2] - Cement demand is gradually weakening, with a production drop of 5.2% year-on-year from January to September. The report suggests that cement companies may seek to optimize supply and increase prices to recover profitability [3] - The flat glass market showed signs of improvement in September, with a slight increase in demand. However, overall production still declined by 5.2% year-on-year, and inventory levels have risen significantly [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment from January to September showed a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but September alone saw a decline of 4.7%. The report anticipates a recovery in the fourth quarter due to early fiscal funding and new policy financial tools [1][2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to September, with a notable drop of 11.9% in September. New construction area fell by 18.9% year-on-year, while completion area saw a slight increase in September, marking the first positive growth since 2024 [2] Cement Industry - Cement production from January to September was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The average shipment rate was 41.3%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The report indicates that cement companies are likely to push for price increases to enhance profitability [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production from January to September was 72.881 million weight cases, down 5.2% year-on-year. The report notes a slight improvement in demand in September, but overall inventory levels have increased significantly, indicating potential challenges ahead [4]

Core Insights - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged at 3.00% for 1-year and 3.50% for over 5 years, indicating a cautious approach in monetary policy [3] - The real estate market is experiencing significant price disparities, with some areas seeing price differences exceeding 6 times [8][11] - Recent sales data shows a strong performance in the Xiamen real estate market, particularly in the Tong'an district, where the average price is significantly lower compared to other districts [5][11] Market Overview - The A-share market has surpassed 3800 points, while gold prices have surged past $4000 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of rising asset prices globally [2] - In Japan, average housing prices in core areas have increased by 17%, with Tokyo's 23 wards averaging over 70,000 RMB per square meter [2] - Vietnam's housing market is also experiencing rapid price increases, with high demand evident in sales offices [2] Xiamen Real Estate Dynamics - The Xiamen real estate market is characterized by a "dual city" phenomenon, with stark contrasts in pricing and sales performance between different districts [5] - The top-selling project, Zhonghai Huanyunqi, achieved 121 units sold at an average price of 23,571 RMB per square meter, showcasing a remarkable sales velocity [5][8] - The price structure is being redefined, with the highest tier in Siming District reaching 86,058 RMB per square meter, while the lowest tier in Tong'an District is around 13,697 RMB per square meter [8][11] Buyer Behavior and Market Segmentation - The purchasing logic in the market has shifted, with buyers now more selectively choosing properties based on price and location [12] - Improvement buyers are showing cautious preferences between island and non-island properties, with notable sales in the mid-range price segments [13] - For first-time buyers, properties in Tong'an and Xiamen districts are becoming more accessible, with prices as low as 13,697 RMB per square meter [14]

Core Insights - The Guoqi Gongying ETF (159719) has shown a 0.19% increase as of October 23, 2025, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.61 yuan [1] - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a 1.84% increase, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's liquidity is reflected in a turnover rate of 2.91% and a transaction volume of 1.8341 million yuan [1] - The current scale of the ETF has reached 62.8155 million yuan, a new high for the past month [1] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 54.27% over the past three years, ranking 319 out of 1897 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 16.82% [1] - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 14.61% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 7 months, with an average monthly return of 4.14% [1] - The ETF has a historical holding period profit probability of 100% over three years [1] - The ETF's annualized excess return over the benchmark in the last six months is 7.37% [1] - The maximum drawdown in the last six months is 5.61%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.20% [1] Fee Structure and Tracking Precision - The management fee for the Guoqi Gongying ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [2] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.037%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] - The ETF closely tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [2] Top Holdings - The top holdings of the ETF include: - China Petroleum (601857) with a weight of 15.94% and a price increase of 1.12% [4] - China Petrochemical (600028) with a weight of 11.93% and a price increase of 0.36% [4] - China State Construction (601668) with a weight of 9.59% and no price change [4] - China Mobile (600941) with a weight of 6.87% and a price increase of 0.12% [4] - China Railway (601390) with a weight of 4.53% and a price decrease of 0.70% [4]

Major Events - Sinopharm (01801) has reached a global strategic cooperation with Takeda Pharmaceutical and plans to issue shares under general authorization [1] - China Unicom (00762) intends to spin off Zhinet Technology for listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext [1] - Laopuhuangjin (06181) plans to place approximately 3.7118 million new H-shares at a discount of about 4.50%, raising approximately HKD 2.707 billion [1] - Xinyi International (00732) intends to acquire approximately 11.43% equity in Xinyi Renshou through public bidding [1] - Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology-B (02575) will present clinical phase III research data for Pyrocilin as a first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer at ESMO 2025 [1] - Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B (02595) has completed the first patient dosing in the Ib/II phase study of KRAS G12D inhibitor GFH375 in combination with cetuximab or chemotherapy for advanced solid tumors [1] - Weihua Holdings (00622) plans to sell Shengjing H-shares for HKD 503 million [1] - Huajian Medical (01931) intends to change its English name to "ETHK Labs Inc." [1] - Nohui Health (06606) will have its listing status canceled starting October 27 [1] - Akun Real Estate (06900) will have its listing status canceled starting October 27 [1] - Jianzhong Construction (00589) will have its listing status canceled starting October 27 [1] Operating Performance - China Unicom (00762) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 20 billion for the first three quarters, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year [2] - China Railway (00390) signed new contracts worth RMB 1,584.92 billion in the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2] - China Communications Construction (01800) reported new contracts of RMB 1,339.97 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of 4.65% [2] - Cathay Pacific (00293) saw a 21% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in September [2] - Tabo (06110) reported a profit attributable to equity holders of approximately RMB 789 million for the interim period, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year [2] - Shanghai Petrochemical (00338) reported a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 432 million for the first three quarters [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Railway (601390.SH) reported a new contract signing amount of 476.23 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a cumulative new contract signing amount of 1,584.92 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] Group 1 - The new contract signing amount for the third quarter reached 476.23 billion yuan [1] - The cumulative new contract signing amount for the first three quarters was 1,584.92 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for new contract signing in the first three quarters was 3.7% [1]

Group 1: Key Insights on China's Global Expansion - The core assumption risks include uncertainties in overseas policies and compliance, market perception biases leading to operational risks, exchange rate fluctuations causing currency losses, and supply chain risks in overseas operations[3] - The shift in overseas demand for Chinese manufacturing has moved from cost and capacity advantages to a focus on technology with higher added value, allowing companies to leverage core technological advantages to expand internationally[4] - China's manufacturing value added is projected to increase from 8.6% of the global total in 2004 to 31.6% by 2024, indicating a significant enhancement in global industrial value chain construction capabilities[16] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Going Global - The "going out" strategy is crucial for utilizing technological comparative advantages to expand into global markets and build a community with a shared future for mankind[5] - China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has rapidly increased, with significant growth in investment flows and stock since 2006, reflecting a transition from "bringing in" to "going out"[8] - The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a national strategy since 2013, facilitating infrastructure connectivity and economic cooperation with participating countries[41] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Uncertainties in overseas policies, such as geopolitical risks and trade protectionism, may hinder the pace of companies' international expansion[93] - Market perception differences can lead to operational risks if companies misjudge target markets, potentially resulting in economic losses[93] - Exchange rate volatility poses risks of currency losses, impacting corporate profitability during overseas operations[93]

Market Overview - On October 22, the infrastructure sector rose by 0.68% compared to the previous trading day, with Beixin Road and Bridge leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Key Stocks Performance - Beixin Road and Bridge (002307) closed at 5.57, up 10.08% with a trading volume of 517,700 shares and a transaction value of 288 million yuan [1] - Wenke Co., Ltd. (002775) closed at 4.89, up 5.16% with a trading volume of 703,600 shares [1] - ST Yipin (603843) closed at 5.59, up 5.08% with a trading volume of 87,300 shares [1] - ST Lingnan (002717) closed at 1.71, up 4.91% with a trading volume of 1,675,400 shares [1] - Yuanlin Co., Ltd. (605303) closed at 69.61, up 4.79% with a trading volume of 186,200 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The infrastructure sector experienced a net outflow of 492 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 594 million yuan [2][3] - The main stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors included Beixin Road and Bridge, Wenke Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Road and Bridge [3] - Beixin Road and Bridge had a net inflow of 109 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 37.96% of its trading volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guoqi Gongying ETF (159719) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.44%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, and a weekly gain of 1.08% as of October 21, 2025 [1] Performance Summary - As of October 21, 2025, the Guoqi Gongying ETF has achieved a net value increase of 53.53% over the past three years, ranking 337 out of 1897 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 17.76% [1] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 14.61% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 7 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 24.70% [1] - The average return in the months of increase is 4.14%, with a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% and a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [1] - Over the past six months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 7.35% [1] Liquidity and Scale - The ETF's latest scale reached 62.51 million yuan, marking a recent one-month high [1] - The trading volume showed a turnover of 4.25% during the session, with a total transaction value of 2.6597 million yuan [1] - The average daily transaction value over the past year was 13.2974 million yuan [1] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Guoqi Gongying ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [2] Tracking Precision - As of October 21, 2025, the ETF has a tracking error of 0.036% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3] - The ETF closely tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [3] Top Holdings - The top holdings in the ETF include: - China Petroleum (601857) with a weight of 15.94% and a gain of 1.03% - China Petrochemical (600028) with a weight of 11.93% and a gain of 0.92% - China State Construction (601668) with a weight of 9.59% and a gain of 0.53% [5]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index (恒指) rose by 168 points or 0.7%, closing at 26,027 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index (滬指) increased by 52 points or 1.4%, closing at 3,916 points[1] - Total market turnover in Hong Kong was 264.657 billion HKD[1] Currency and Monetary Policy - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 43 points to 7.0930, reaching a one-year high[1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,595 billion RMB reverse repo operation with a rate of 1.4%, maintaining the previous level[1] A-Share Market Highlights - Shenzhen Component Index (深證成指) rose by 264 points or 2.1%, closing at 13,077 points with a turnover of 1.04 trillion RMB[1] - ChiNext Index (創業板指) increased by 90 points or 3%, closing at 3,083 points with a turnover of 475.6 billion RMB[1] Corporate Earnings - China Railway (中國中鐵) reported new contracts worth 476.23 billion RMB in Q3, with a cumulative total of 1.58 trillion RMB for the first three quarters, up 3.7% year-on-year[2] - China Telecom (中國電信) reported Q3 revenue of 394.3 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with net profit growing by 5% to 30.773 billion RMB[3] Growth in Specific Sectors - Pop Mart (泡泡瑪特) reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3, with overseas revenue increasing by 365%-370%[3]

Core Insights - China Railway Group (601390) announced a new contract value of 476.23 billion yuan for the period of July to September 2025 [1] - The total new contract value for the year reached 1,584.92 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] Company Summary - The new contracts signed in the third quarter of 2025 amounted to 476.23 billion yuan [1] - The cumulative new contracts for the current year have increased to 1,584.92 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1]