都说民航是"看天吃饭"的行业，航司能不能赚钱，就和天气一样难预测。 行业的整体盈利有多薄？国际航协 （IATA）有个令人咋舌的比喻：苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳，都 比航空公司运一名客人赚得多——后者平均利润只有7.9美元。 薄利是全球航空业的共同现实，而对于刚走出多年亏损阴影的中国航司巨头来说，挑战显得尤其严峻。 2020年至2024年，国航、东航和南航累计亏损高达2064亿元。直到今年三季度末，三大航才终于"咸鱼 翻身"，前三季度合计盈利62.8亿元。 但全年下来能否盈利？仍然存在变数。 环球旅讯特约评论员高思伟指出，今年前三季度的整体盈利，很大程度上依赖第三季度的强劲表现，其 实是"用Q3旺势，填平Q1和Q2的亏损"。 2025年暑运期间，全国民航平均客座率达到约84.8%的高位，反映出旺季国内出行需求强劲。 在这一背 景下，国内航线的市场定价能力有所修复，高峰时段主要干线的票价也呈现一定支撑。 也正因为如此，三季度的盈利更像一次"结构性修复"，而非单点运气。 其中，国内市场的作用并不在于创造高利润率，而在于通过高客座率和规模化运行，在旺季阶段形成了 可留存的现金流与利润基础。 真正的考验，集中在第 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of enhancing aviation safety management through a dual approach of "regulation + support" to strengthen the safety responsibility of enterprises [1][2] - The Shanghai Civil Aviation Administration conducted a comprehensive inspection and targeted support for Spring Airlines, focusing on the investigation quality of typical unsafe events, the construction of a dual prevention mechanism, and the development of a safety culture [2] - The safety office adopted a problem-oriented and effectiveness-first principle, engaging in thorough checks of key positions in flight operations and safety management, including reviewing incident investigation reports and safety management records [2] Group 2 - Spring Airlines' management expressed commitment to using this initiative as an opportunity to comprehensively review safety management details and refine closure measures to continuously enhance safety assurance capabilities [2] - The Shanghai Civil Aviation Administration plans to deepen the "regulation + support" work mechanism and regularly conduct frontline work to synchronize regulatory effectiveness with the internal safety motivation of enterprises, aiming to create a safer travel environment for passengers [2]

国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显 向远程航线倾斜有关。 2025.12.25 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经陈姗姗 中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺 丁不旺财"。 国际航线开拓的提速，也令国内航司的市场份额碾压外航。据航班管家数据，国内航司的市场份额已从2019年的58.9%攀升至2025年的69.5%，而国外航 司的份额则萎缩至30.5%。在航班恢复上的差异更为悬殊，2025年国内航司的国际航班量已恢复至2019年的103.6%，国外航司仅为65.3%。这标志着后疫 情时代的国际航线市场，已形成由国内航司主导恢复，而国外航司参与度降低的新格局。 全球航空数据、估值与咨询机构IBA航空集团在近日举办的行业峰会上就提到，中国 ...

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运 输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740 元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺丁不旺财"。 国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客 同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显向远程航线倾斜有关。 2025.12. 25 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约4分钟 如何摆脱增收不增利 尽管如此，中国航司截至今年第三季度的息税前利润率（EBIT）维持在3–4%区间，仍低于亚太及 全球平均水平。对此，IBA认为源于国内市场受竞争激烈及历史高运力水平影响，盈利修复相对缓 慢。 国际航协最近发布的预测也显示，相比其他区域，亚太航司运送每位旅客的收益只有3.2美元（约合 23元人民币），是所有地区中赚得最少的。这与亚太地区的运力过剩不无关系。比如在中国，国内 市场的"内卷"给航司收益带来了持续的压力，即使是有低票价优势的春秋 ...

中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺丁 不旺财"。 国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显向 远程航线倾斜有关。 全球航空数据、估值与咨询机构IBA航空集团在近日举办的行业峰会上就提到，中国民航2025年的可用座公里（ASK）预计同比增长5.8%，其中国际ASK预 计增长11.9%，反映出关键国际市场逐步重启、长途航线网络持续修复。相比之下，国内市场的运力增长有所放缓，ASK预计增长3.2%，低于去年的8.0%。 这与国内民航市场的"内卷"不无关系。早在2023年，国内旅客运输量就已超疫情前的2019年水平，客座率也不断走高，2025年再创年度新高，但这背后是国 内航司普遍采取的"以价换量"策略：2024年经济舱平均票价同比下滑12.7%，2025年依旧延续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.17% on December 25, with significant contributions from airlines like Juneyao Airlines, while the overall market indices also showed positive movements [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% [1]. - Juneyao Airlines led the aviation sector with a closing price of 14.08, reflecting a rise of 1.51% [1]. - Other notable performers included CITIC Offshore Helicopter and Spring Airlines, both showing increases of 1.51% and 1.46% respectively [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Juneyao Airlines was 201,600 shares, with a transaction value of 285 million yuan [1]. - China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines remained stable, with no change in their stock prices, while Shanghai Airport and Air China saw minor increases of 0.39% and 0.46% respectively [1]. - The overall trading volume in the aviation sector indicated a mixed performance, with some stocks experiencing declines [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The aviation sector saw a net outflow of 336 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 388 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicated that Shanghai Airport had a net inflow of 27.85 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail and speculative investors [3]. - Conversely, Air China experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors amounting to 60.80 million yuan, while retail investors showed a net inflow of 65.73 million yuan [3].

Core Insights - The successful launch of the Southern Second Runway at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport marks the airport's transition into the "three-runway" era, enhancing regional air transport capacity and supporting local economic development [1][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The Xi'an Xianyang International Airport Phase III expansion project is a key national construction project under the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is supported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China as a national aviation benchmark demonstration project [3]. - The Southern Second Runway, measuring 3,000 meters in length and 45 meters in width, is built to 4F standards and, along with the Northern Second Runway and the existing Southern First Runway, creates a "three-runway linkage" that increases the airport's annual passenger capacity to 83 million and cargo throughput to 1 million tons [3][8]. - The airport has evolved from a regional airport with one runway to an international hub with three runways and four terminals over the past 30 years [3]. Group 2: Operational Coordination - To ensure smooth operations, the Xi'an Airport Company established a specialized leadership group and a three-tier command system, coordinating efforts with various stakeholders, including the Northwest Air Traffic Management Bureau and the Airport Construction Command [5]. - Multiple rounds of joint trial operations and comprehensive simulations were conducted to enhance coordination in critical areas such as runway switching, flight scheduling, and passenger guidance [5]. Group 3: Airline Transition and Resource Optimization - Concurrent with the Southern Second Runway's launch, seven airlines successfully transitioned their domestic flights from Terminal 3 to Terminal 5, optimizing resource efficiency and adjusting flight routes [7]. - The airport strategically divided the functions of the east and west terminals and allocated resources to alleviate the long-standing pressure on Terminal 3, thereby improving passenger flow efficiency and service experience [7][8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The successful operation of the Southern Second Runway and the optimization of airline layouts inject core momentum into the hub upgrade of Xi'an Xianyang International Airport, positioning it to enhance its hub capabilities and service levels, contributing to the high-quality development of civil aviation in Northwest China [8].

Core Viewpoint - The case highlights the challenges faced by passengers in seeking compensation from airlines, particularly when airlines initially offer inadequate compensation and only comply when faced with legal action [5]. Group 1: Incident Overview - A passenger filed a lawsuit against Spring Airlines after their flight was canceled within 24 hours due to the airline's reasons, initially receiving a compensation offer of a 300 yuan voucher, which was later increased to 1000 yuan in cash [1][5]. - The passenger attempted to resolve the issue through administrative channels, including the 12345 hotline and the Civil Aviation Administration, but found these avenues ineffective [2][5]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings and Outcomes - The passenger successfully navigated the self-litigation process without hiring a lawyer, ultimately achieving a settlement during the pre-trial mediation phase, where Spring Airlines agreed to compensate for all losses incurred due to the flight cancellation and associated legal costs [3][5]. - The case demonstrates that passengers can win disputes without legal representation if they have sufficient evidence, challenging the notion that pursuing rights is futile [5][6]. Group 3: Recommendations for Passengers - Passengers are advised to retain key evidence such as electronic tickets, cancellation notices, customer service communication records, and related expense receipts to support their claims [6]. - A tiered approach to low-cost dispute resolution is recommended, starting with negotiations with the airline for cash compensation, and if unsuccessful, proceeding to small claims court, which has lower fees and simpler procedures [6]. - It is suggested that passengers focus on direct losses like ticket price differences and non-refundable expenses to enhance the efficiency of their claims, avoiding claims for emotional damages that are less likely to be supported [6].

记者 李宝花 此外，亲子研学线路兼顾趣味与知识，上海迪士尼、海昌海洋公园、乐高拼搭、天文寻根等主题研 学线路，真正实现玩中学、学中乐。银发康养则主打舒心与安心，普陀推出的银发尊享三日游，贴心设 置电梯限流、加宽游船座位、清淡分餐等细节；闵行的养云安缦康养线路，让长者在千年樟林间慢享康 养时光。 一城展千面，岁岁有新意。2026年元旦，赴上海之约，在不同的风景与体验中迎接崭新的一年。 本次元旦潮玩线路的核心亮点，在于六大特色主题的精准打造，从人文体验到自然漫游，从亲子研 学到银发康养，全方位覆盖不同人群的出游偏好，让新年的仪式感在多元体验中拉满。 建筑可阅读板块迎来全新升级，愚园路、武夷路、武康路等"永不拓宽的马路"相关线路集合了名人 故居打卡、非遗手作体验、特色下午茶、专属跟拍整合为标准游玩模块，游客可如同集邮般，一日打卡 十余处历史建筑，沉浸式触摸上海的城市肌理。 非遗体验成为标配亮点，多条线路中植入非遗手作环节，豫园烧蓝、笔墨宫坊书法、松江布挂饰、 嘉定竹刻等本土非遗技艺悉数登场，游客亲手制作香囊、年画、皮影，把新年美好心愿与非遗文创一同 带回家。 滨江漫游打造"水陆空"三维赏景体验，宝山滨江、徐汇西岸、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [13]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand mismatch, with demand trends showing a determined upward trajectory while actual supply is projected to decline. This situation is anticipated to lead to a price reversal starting in 2026, with profitability gradually improving until 2030 [3][10]. - The demand structure is diverse, comprising domestic business travel, personal travel, inbound foreign tourists, and outbound Chinese tourists. The industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028, with international demand growth outpacing domestic [8][45]. - Supply constraints are primarily driven by prolonged engine maintenance cycles and geopolitical tensions affecting aircraft manufacturing, leading to a forecasted decline in actual supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [9][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The aviation industry operates under a multi-factor model influenced by demand, supply, oil prices, and exchange rates. The supply is predominantly controlled by overseas manufacturers, making it a seller's market with long aircraft introduction cycles [7][25]. Demand - The demand is categorized into four segments: domestic business (42%), domestic personal travel (35%), inbound foreign tourists (17%), and outbound Chinese tourists (6%). The demand is expected to show resilience against economic fluctuations, with a projected CAGR of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028 [8][45]. Supply - The supply side is constrained by extended engine maintenance cycles, which are expected to triple starting in 2025, leading to a decrease in available aircraft. The net introduction of new aircraft is anticipated to remain low, with a compound growth rate of approximately 2.6% over the next three years [9][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in major airlines such as China National Aviation (H+A), Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as the industry prepares for a cyclical recovery driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and potential cost reductions in oil and exchange rates [3][10].