国防军工行业 2025 年半年报业绩回顾 "业绩底"筑基，上游环节和兵器板块实现增长 2025 年 09 月 04 日 ➢ 核心观点 1H25，民生军工成分（不含舰船）营业总收入同比增长 7.5%；归母净利润 同比下滑 19.8%。其中，2Q25 营业总收入同比增长 17.1%/环比增长 59.2%； 归母净利润同比下滑 9.5%/环比增长 91.2%。我们观点如下：1）2023~2024 年 行业需求不振导致业绩承压；2025 年以来需求好转，1H25 营收同比已经开始 增长。2）降价、减值等是影响利润的核心因素，因此 1H25 行业营收端和利润 端出现"非线性"变化，而这种情况将对业绩预测带来很大不确定性。3）2025 年是行业"业绩底"，收入端率先体现。4）产业链不同环节交付顺序、确收周期 等有差异，因此 1H25 上游营收同比增长，但中游营收仍同比下滑。 ➢ 趋势分析 2Q25 业绩环比改善幅度好于 2Q24 同期；盈利能力持续承压。1）收入端： 2025 年以来行业需求恢复，在 1H25 的营收端已有所体现，预计全年营收端将 保持增长。2）利润端：3Q23~2Q25，行业归母净利润连续 8 个季度同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a recovery in quartz fiber demand in the first half of 2025, with a continuous restoration of orders [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has successfully developed multiple high-performance composite material projects, which have passed relevant testing assessments [1] - One of the projects has already entered the mass production stage [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 菲利华 (300395.SZ) has reported a sales revenue of 13.1248 million yuan for quartz electronic cloth in the first half of 2025, indicating progress in its product development and market entry [1] - The quartz electronic cloth is currently in the stage of small batch testing with clients and undergoing certification by end customers, which suggests that the company is in the process of validating its product for broader market adoption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully developed the G10.5 generation photomask substrate for TFT-LCD, following the launch of the first domestic 8.5 generation photomask substrate, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and production capacity expansion in the display materials sector [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has established production capabilities for TFT-LCD photomask substrates ranging from G4.5 to G10.5 generations, showcasing a comprehensive product line [1] - The company’s Hefei Guangwei photomask substrate precision processing project has achieved batch supply capability and has commenced small batch shipments, indicating readiness for market demand [1] - The Jinan Guangwei high-end electronic special materials precision processing project has completed the production line for basic specifications and is optimizing mass production processes, which lays the groundwork for future product upgrades and process iterations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully developed G10.5 generation photomask substrates for TFT-LCD after launching the first domestic 8.5 generation photomask substrate, showcasing its advanced production capabilities across various generations [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has achieved production capabilities for TFT-LCD photomask substrates ranging from G4.5 to G10.5 generations [1] - The Hefei Guangwei photomask substrate precision processing project has reached mass supply capability and has begun small batch shipments [1] - The Jinan Guangwei high-end electronic materials precision processing project has completed the production line for basic specifications and is optimizing the mass production process [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The production process for high-end products in the Jinan project has been initiated as planned, laying the foundation for future product upgrades and process iterations [1]

Group 1: Quartz Electronic Fabric Development - In the first half of 2025, the sales revenue of quartz electronic fabric reached 13.12 million yuan, currently in small batch testing and client certification phase [1] - The company is closely monitoring market conditions to plan and build production capacity, but faces uncertainties due to client product iterations and testing [1][2] Group 2: Photomask Substrate Technology - The company is among the few in China engaged in synthetic quartz glass R&D and manufacturing, leading in large-scale production technology [3] - Successfully developed G10.5 generation photomask substrates in 2022, with production capabilities ranging from G4.5 to G10.5 [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Material Localization - The company is advancing technology R&D and process improvements for domestic substitution of quartz glass materials [4] - High-purity synthetic quartz sand project has entered the pilot test phase, with stable production capabilities for black and white quartz and high uniformity synthetic quartz products [4] Group 4: Aerospace Business Progress - The company is one of the few global manufacturers with mass production capabilities for quartz glass fibers, serving as a leading supplier in the aerospace sector [5] - Ongoing development of advanced structural and functional composite materials based on market and client needs [5][6] Group 5: Market Demand and Production Capacity - In the first half of 2025, demand for quartz fibers has rebounded, with multiple high-performance composite material projects successfully developed and one project entering mass production [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in stock price, with a 23.74% drop over the past five days, closing at 80.23 yuan per share on September 4 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of high-performance quartz glass materials and products for various sectors, including optical communications, semiconductors, solar energy, and aerospace, with 99.70% of its revenue coming from non-metallic mineral products [1] - As of the latest report, the total market capitalization of Feilihua is 41.902 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 2.235 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 5.30% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, Guotai Fund has a significant position in Feilihua, with its Guotai Internet+ Stock Fund holding 380,000 shares, representing 3.61% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 957,600 yuan over the five-day decline, with total floating losses amounting to 9.4886 million yuan during this period [2] - The Guotai Internet+ Stock Fund has shown a year-to-date return of 25.86% and a one-year return of 44.41%, ranking 1499 out of 4222 and 1964 out of 3789 respectively in its category [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of two companies in the transportation sector: Changjiu Logistics and COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, with contrasting results in their financial performance for the first half of 2025 [2][5][9][10]. Company Summaries Changjiu Logistics - In the first half of 2025, Changjiu Logistics reported revenue of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 80.66% to 10.1688 million yuan due to decreased vehicle transport prices and ship repair costs [2][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory actions aimed at improving industry standards, which may enhance its competitive position and profitability in the future [7][6]. COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers achieved a revenue of 10.775 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 44.05% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 825 million yuan, up 13.08% [9][10]. - The significant growth in revenue is attributed to a substantial increase in income from car carriers and heavy lift vessels, with the net profit excluding non-recurring items rising by 52.77% to 835 million yuan [10][11]. - The company is well-positioned for continued growth due to strong demand in specialized shipping markets and an expanding fleet [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The military industry is characterized as a high-beta sector, sensitive to market liquidity and risk appetite, leading to significant adjustments following prior gains [1][2] - The recent military parade showcased advanced domestic combat equipment, emphasizing intelligent, systematic, and unmanned technologies [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The military sector experienced volatility, with a nearly 6% drop in the Shenwan Military Index on the day of the parade, the largest decline among all primary sectors [2] - **Future Outlook**: Optimism for the military sector's growth is supported by the release of pent-up demand and the introduction of new main battle equipment [3][5] - **Technological Advancements**: The parade highlighted the rapid development of hypersonic weapons and unmanned systems, indicating a shift towards more sophisticated military capabilities [4][8][11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with core technological advantages and innovation capabilities, particularly in hypersonic weapons, intelligent systems, and unmanned technology [5][30] - Large defense enterprises with stable orders and strong growth expectations are also recommended for investment [5][30] - Smaller innovative companies benefiting from national policy support and international dynamics should be considered for potential growth [5][30] Emerging Trends - **Unmanned Technology**: The application of unmanned technology in military operations is diversifying and becoming more intelligent, with significant developments across land, sea, and air [7][21] - **Hypersonic Weapons**: The rapid development of hypersonic weapons was evident, with multiple models showcased, enhancing strategic deterrence capabilities [8][9] - **Non-Traditional Military Equipment**: Growth in non-traditional military equipment, including cyber and electronic warfare, is expected to contribute significantly to supply chain growth [10][12] Challenges and Risks - The military sector faces challenges from external factors such as the pandemic and personnel adjustments, which have hindered business processes and new order visibility [17][18] - Market risk appetite and liquidity conditions may continue to exert pressure on the military sector in the short term, although most trading risks have been adequately addressed [31] Conclusion - The military industry is poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increased defense spending globally. Investment strategies should focus on companies with competitive advantages in emerging technologies and stable growth prospects.

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the military industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][11]. Core Insights - The 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War was marked by a grand ceremony in Beijing, showcasing various new military equipment, reflecting China's military technology innovation and strategic deterrence capabilities, highlighting the high prosperity of the military industry [2][4]. - The military parade featured a comprehensive display of the military's restructured force composition, including both traditional and new combat capabilities, emphasizing the integration of advanced technologies such as unmanned systems and hypersonic weapons [4]. - The military industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to increasing defense spending driven by regional tensions and the need for modernization, particularly in the context of the 100th anniversary of the military's establishment by 2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The military parade included foot formations, equipment displays, and aerial formations, showcasing the systematic achievements of domestic military equipment across land, sea, air, and space [4]. - New models such as the Type 191 long-range box rocket launcher and various advanced missiles were prominently featured, demonstrating the military's capabilities and innovation [4]. Industry Outlook - The demand for military equipment is highly certain, with accelerated reforms expected to sustain high prosperity in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates a long-term positive trend in military equipment construction, with a focus on eliminating outdated equipment and enhancing high-tech capabilities [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, and others, all rated as "Accumulate" [5].