Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that ZTO Express (02057) experienced a year-on-year growth of 16.5% in express delivery volume in the second quarter, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The report suggests that there may be surprises in the average unit price over the next 6 to 12 months, which could act as a catalyst for the stock price [1] - The earnings forecast for ZTO Express for the years 2025 to 2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards by 1% to 2%, and the target price has been raised from HKD 174 to HKD 187, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

东兴证券发布研报称，7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城 件业务量同比增长8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。价格方面，7月行业单票价格环比6月略降，同比降幅缩窄 至5.3%。申通、韵达与圆通7月单票收入同比降幅分别为1.5%、3.5%和7.1%。7月以来国家邮政局加强 了反内卷的力度并强调行业自律，或有助于后续价格竞争的缓和，预计后续各地还会继续跟进反内卷的 相关政策，建议重点关注服务品质领先的行业龙头中通快递-W(02057)和圆通速递（600233） (600233.SH)。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 件量增速继续放缓，各企业增速分化 7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城件业务量同比增长 8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。行业件量增速3月以来缓慢下行，与去年同期基数较高有一定关系，也与以 价换量模式边际效益递减有关。与6月类似，7月上市快递公司件量增速分化依旧明显。其中顺丰增速显 著领先行业均值，4月以来维持了30%以上的高增长。通达系快递中，圆通增速高于行业均值，申通及 韵达则低于行业均值。 圆通单票收入继续下压，申通韵达 ...

招银国际发布研报称，次季中通快递-W(02057)的快递量同比增长16.5%，招银国际仍认为未来6至12个 月平均单价或有惊喜，可能成为股价催化剂。该行将中通2025至2027年年盈利预测微调1%至2%，目标 价从174港元上调至187港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，民生证券发布研报称，快递板块当前仍处于低估区间，电商市场规模持续增长，叠 加下沉市场及电商逆向件等新需求落地，看好行业需求增长韧性，叠加物流无人车打开快递降本空间。 另外随着顺周期预期改善，中高端快递市场具备需求回暖机会价值。建议关注顺丰控股(06936)、中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)、申通快递(002468.SZ)、极兔速递-W(01519)。 需求增长韧性强劲，价格竞争影响单票收入 民生证券主要观点如下： 快递行业保持高位运行，顺丰控股持续领跑 国家邮政局公布2025年7月快递行业运行情况，7月份快递业务收入与业务量分别完成1206.4亿元和164.0 亿件，分别同比增长8.9%和15.1%，2025年1-7月，快递业务收入累计完成8394.2亿元，同比增长9.9%， 快递业务量累计完成1120.5亿件，同比增长18.7%。 2025年7月，顺丰快递业务营收和件量增速领跑行业，快递业务收入186.57亿元，业务量13.77亿件。 2025年1-7月，顺丰市场份额同比+0.5pct，快递收入为1278.12亿元，业务量91.90亿件，单票收入13.91 元 ...

行 业 研 究 快递 7 月数据点评：反内卷力度超预期， 助力价格战逐步缓和 2025 年 8 月 21 日 看好/维持 交通运输 行业报告 事件：7 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 164.0 亿件，同比增长 15.0%。 行业件量增速缓慢下降。 点评： 件量增速继续放缓，各企业增速分化：7 月全国快递服务企业业务完成 量 164.0 亿件，同比增长 15.0%。分类型看，同城件业务量同比增长 8.8%，异地件增长 16.1%。行业件量增速 3 月以来缓慢下行，与去年 同期基数较高有一定关系，也与以价换量模式边际效益递减有关。 与 6 月类似，7 月上市快递公司件量增速分化依旧明显。其中顺丰增速 显著领先行业均值，4 月以来维持了 30%以上的高增长。通达系快递 中，圆通增速高于行业均值，申通及韵达则低于行业均值。 圆通单票收入继续下压，申通韵达底部波动：价格方面，7 月行业单票 价格环比 6 月略降，同比降幅缩窄至 5.3%。 申通、韵达与圆通 7 月单票收入同比降幅分别为 1.5%、3.5%和 7.1%。 韵达单票收入同比降幅收窄，主要是价格已经处于底部，继续下探空 间有限；圆通同比降幅则还在扩大，说明圆 ...

大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信在推行反内卷政策 后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢大市"上调至"买 入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信 在推行反内卷政策后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢 大市"上调至"买入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The increase in revenue was driven by a 16.5% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 9.85 billion packages, despite a 4.7% decline in average revenue per package due to increased subsidies and lighter package weights [2] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth target to 14%-18% from the previous 20%-24% due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan, a 10.3% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit fell by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 was attributed to a 16.5% increase in business volume, totaling 9.85 billion packages, although the average revenue per package decreased by 4.7% [2] - The company’s market share was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The core cost per package decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan due to improved economies of scale and lower oil prices [3] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points year-on-year to 24.9%, and the adjusted net profit margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that ZTO Express's stock price has significantly lagged behind its A-share listed peers since July, primarily due to investor expectations regarding its lower sensitivity to profit from rising average express delivery prices [1] - Management remains optimistic about the continued price increases in the express delivery sector, believing that the industry's prices can gradually recover following the government's anti-involution policies [1] - In response to the slight negative impact of rising express delivery prices on package volume, the company has revised its full-year package volume growth forecast from a range of 20% to 24% down to a range of 14% to 18% [1] Group 2 - Consequently, the forecast for ZTO's earnings per share for 2025 to 2026 has been adjusted downward by 0.4% to 10% to reflect the anticipated decrease in package volume [1] - The report suggests that improvements in industry pricing trends could drive a revaluation of the company, with the rating upgraded from "outperform" to "buy" and the target price increased from 155 HKD to 180 HKD [1]