| ZTO 中通快递 | | 507 | | --- | --- | --- | | 21.010 + +0.360 +1.74% | | 收盘价 12/04 16:00 美东 | | 21.550 + 0.540 +2.57% | | 盘前价 12/05 04:03 美东 | | 一 7 24 4 5 8 9 同 ♥ 郎 ♥ 時 2 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 21.175 | 开盘价 21.000 - | 成交量 167.77万 | | 最低价 20.845 | 昨收价 20.650 | 成交额 3533.26万 | | 平均价 21.060 | 市盈率 TM 13.76 | 总市值 166.87亿 (…) | | 振 幅 1.60% | 市盈率(静) 13.89 | 总股本 7.94亿 | | 换手率 0.41% | 市净率 1.823 | 流通值 86.09亿 | | 52周最高 21.247 | 委 比 0.50% | 流通股 4.1亿 | | 52周最低 15.774 量 比 1.03 | | 色 手 1股 | | 历史景高 34.821 股息TTM 0.657 换股比率 1.00 | ...

机构：中泰证券 研究员：杜冲/邵美玲 "同建共享"理念下实现后来者居上。中通快递成立于2002 年，是最年轻的"通达系"公司；2005 年率先 开通跨省际网络班车；2008 年率先在行业推出有偿派费制；2010年启动"全网一体化"发展战略，在行 业率先成功完成全国网络股份制改革；2014-2015年，先后收购24 个网络合作伙伴，并建立集中管理的 全国性网络；2016 年包裹量实现弯道超车，市场份额成为行业第一，2017-2025 年前3 季度稳居加盟制 快递首位。 优化结构提升效率追求"量质并举"。件量端，2025 年Q3，公司实现包裹量约95.7亿件，同比增长 9.8%，市场份额约19.4%；其中散件业务量增长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极 贡献。收入端，2025 年Q3，公司单票收入（不含货代业务）同比提升0.02 元至1.22 元，其中增量补贴 增加0.14 元、单票重量下降影响0.02 元，而KA 客户单价提升0.18 元则抵销了前述影响，业务结构仍在 持续优化。成本端，2025 年Q3，公司单票运输成本为0.34 元，同比下降0.05 元，主要受益于更好的规 模效益及优化路由规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics route taken by a package of lamb from Lanzhou to Chengdu, which first diverted to Nanjing, highlighting inefficiencies in modern logistics despite advanced technology [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The package's journey involved a total distance of approximately 2800 kilometers instead of the direct 660 kilometers, raising questions about the efficiency of logistics operations [1][3]. - The response from EMS indicated that this routing is standard practice, as Nanjing serves as a central hub for their national air network [4][5]. - Many logistics companies, including SF Express, also utilize similar routing strategies, consolidating packages at central hubs before final delivery [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Rationale - The "hub-and-spoke" model is employed to achieve economies of scale and reduce costs, which may appear inefficient to consumers but is a calculated decision from a logistics perspective [7][8]. - The cost of shipping multiple packages together significantly reduces the average cost per item, demonstrating the financial logic behind the routing choices [9][10]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies have strategically chosen locations for their hubs based on factors like cargo flow, land costs, and transportation infrastructure, with a focus on new first-tier cities and key economic regions [11][12]. - The government's logistics hub planning aligns with the choices made by companies, creating a supportive environment for efficient logistics operations [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The integration of national logistics networks with corporate logistics systems is expected to enhance efficiency, allowing for smarter routing decisions that balance cost, speed, and reliability [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | U ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

成本效率持续提升，未来降本空间或将收窄。25Q3 单票成本为0.91元，同比+0.09 元，主要受服务直客 客户增长影响。其中，单票运输成本同比下降11.5%至0.34 元，主要得益于规模经济改善和更高效路线 规划所带来的转载率提升；分拣成本同比下降1.9%至0.25 元，主要得益于自动化设备投入带来的效益 提升。随着业务量增速放缓带来带来的规模经济收缩，我们预计Q4 单票运输和分拣成本将保持下降趋 势但降幅收窄，但成本效率依旧保持行业领先地位。 投资要点： 投资建议：我们预计，2025-2027 年中通快递归母净利润分别为95.65/106.33/119.29 亿元，对应EPS 为 11.89/13.22/14.83 元。预测港元/人民币汇率为0.91，2025 年目标P/E 15x，给予公司目标价195.99港元， 维持"增持"评级。 25Q3 件量增速回落，反内卷带动盈利改善。中通25Q3 营收118.6亿元，同增11.1%；总业务量达95.7 亿 票，同增9.8%，增速较Q2收窄且略落后于同业；单票收入1.22 元，同比+0.02 元。我们认为，件量增长 放缓是Q3 淡季叠加价格回升导致轻小件及低价件 ...

周二热门中概股收盘多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.65%。亚朵集团涨超5%，老虎证券涨超 1%，理想、京东、搜狐小幅收涨。小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺跌超3%，蔚来、万国数据、哔哩哔哩、金 山云跌超2%，阿里巴巴、网易、中通跌超1%，百度小幅收跌。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.65% on December 3rd, indicating a downward trend in popular Chinese concept stocks [1] - Notable gainers included Atour, which rose over 5%, and Tiger Securities, which increased by over 2% [1] - Significant decliners included XPeng Motors, which dropped over 7%, and iQIYI, which fell over 3%, along with NIO, Global Data, and Bilibili, each declining over 2% [1] Group 2 - Alibaba, NetEase, and ZTO Express each experienced a decline of over 1% [1]