021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：2月4日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a significant increase of 8.84% on February 4, with Shaanxi Black Cat leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 4.62, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 757,300 shares [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) also rose by 10.00% to 5.17, with a trading volume of 2,176,100 shares [1] - Baotailong (601011) increased by 9.97% to 3.64, with a trading volume of 1,526,000 shares [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) rose by 9.95% to 4.86, with a trading volume of 2,223,600 shares [1] - Yunnan Coal Energy (600792) increased by 9.95% to 4.64, with a trading volume of 764,400 shares [1] - Antai Group (600408) saw a rise of 6.13% to 3.98, with a trading volume of 1,178,200 shares [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) had a slight increase of 0.42% to 4.73, with a trading volume of 311,600 shares [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 943 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 581 million yuan [1] - The main funds' net inflow for Meijin Energy was 419 million yuan, accounting for 38.32% of its trading volume [2] - Baotailong had a net inflow of 150 million yuan, representing 27.93% of its trading volume [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat recorded a net inflow of 117 million yuan, making up 34.40% of its trading volume [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal had a net inflow of 108 million yuan, which is 10.23% of its trading volume [2] - Yunnan Coal Energy saw a net inflow of 107 million yuan, accounting for 30.99% of its trading volume [2] - Antai Group had a net inflow of 51 million yuan, representing 11.00% of its trading volume [2] - Yunwei Co. experienced a net outflow of 949,970 yuan, which is -6.46% of its trading volume [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The coal sector is experiencing strong gains, with several coal stocks such as Yanzhou Coal, China Coal, and Shanxi Coking Coal hitting the 10% daily limit up, driving the coal ETF up over 7% [1] - The coal ETF, with a fund size of 8.85 billion yuan, closely tracks the China Coal Index and covers the entire coal industry chain, significantly lowering investment barriers and research costs [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Due to a cold wave, energy demand has surged as residents require heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, including stabilizing coal production and increasing natural gas reserves [1] - Indonesia has suspended spot coal exports following a government plan to significantly reduce production quotas, which could lead to job losses and mine closures according to industry associations [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The investment logic for coal stocks remains unchanged, with institutional holdings at low levels and healthy chip structures, indicating a favorable environment for investment [2] - The tightening of supply-side policies is expected to reverse the oversupply situation in the coal industry, with a focus on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks as investment opportunities [3][4] - The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for price rebounds, supported by seasonal demand and supply-side production cuts [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4102.20 points, up by 0.85% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27 points, up by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 points [1] - Overall, more than 3200 stocks rose, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced significant gains, with multiple stocks including Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal hitting the daily limit [1] - The photovoltaic sector also saw substantial increases, with stocks like JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly Energy reaching the daily limit [1] - The real estate sector showed a volatile upward trend, with companies such as I Love My Home and Rong'an Real Estate hitting the daily limit [1] - Consumer stocks were active, with companies like Hangzhou Department Store and China Eastern Airlines also reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, sectors such as computing power and precious metals faced notable declines [1]

A股市场 煤炭股强势，其中， 兖矿能源、 中煤能源、 陕西黑猫、 美锦能源、 晋控煤业、 宝泰隆、 山 西焦化、 云煤能源10CM涨停， 潞安环能逼近涨停， 山西焦煤涨超8%， 昊华能源、 陕西煤业涨超 7%， 恒源煤电， 平煤股份、 新集能源、 淮北矿业、 中国神华账号草6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by expectations of price stabilization and potential supply reductions from Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The coal index rose by 6.82%, the central enterprise coal index by 6.23%, and the coal mining index by 5.93% as of the midday close on February 4 [2]. - Individual stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Meijin Energy (000723.SZ), and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reached their daily limit up [2]. Group 2: Indonesian Coal Production Cuts - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a potential reduction in coal production quotas to approximately 600 million tons by 2026, a significant decrease from the projected 790 million tons for 2025, with some miners facing cuts of 40%-70% [3][4]. - The Indonesian Mining Association warned that these cuts could lead to mine closures, exacerbating challenges in the coal industry [4]. Group 3: Global Coal Market Impact - Indonesia's coal production is projected to reach 836 million tons in 2024, with exports accounting for 55.5 million tons, representing 33%-35% of global coal trade [4]. - The anticipated production cuts are expected to reduce global coal supply, potentially driving international coal prices higher [4]. Group 4: Domestic Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding post-Chinese New Year, supported by terminal restocking demand and supply contraction [5]. - Dazhong Securities predicts a tight supply-demand balance in the thermal coal market, with upward price potential in the medium to long term [5]. - GF Securities forecasts a significant improvement in coal industry profitability by 2026, with a projected 42% decline in industry profits for 2025, but stable production and sales in Q4 [5].

煤炭板块爆发了！ 2月4日，煤炭股爆发，兖矿能源、中煤能源、陕西黑猫、美锦能源、晋控煤业、云煤能源涨停，潞安环能、 山西焦化、宝泰隆、山煤国际、新集能源、大有能源等大涨。煤炭ETF一度大涨超7%，并带领红利指数狂拉 超2%。那么，究竟发生了什么？ | ■ 煤炭(32) | | 4 | 张幅%。 | 现价 | 量状 | 涨速% | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 究矿能源 | R | 10.01 | 15.27 | 5.09 | 0.00 | 1532.72亿 | | 2 | 中煤能源 | R | 10.00 | 14.08 | 3.26 | 0.00 | 1866.82亿 | | 3 | 陕西盖猫 | R | 10.00 | 4.62 | 1.84 | 0.00 | 94.36亿 | | 4 | 美锦能源 | R | 10.00 | 5.17 | 3.73 | 0.00 | 227.66亿 | | 5 | 昌控煤业 | R | 9.99 | 15.86 | 4.41 | 0.00 | 265.45亿 | | 6 | 云 ...

最近一周，在多重短期扰动因素叠加下，国际动力煤价格已显著上行。洲际交易所（ICE）澳大利亚纽 卡斯尔港动力煤期货价格一度攀升至一年来的新高。截至2月2日，印尼4000大卡动力煤华南到岸价报 472元/吨，周环比上涨12元/吨。 印尼矿业协会则警告称，这些削减措施可能会使部分煤矿面临停产，从而使本已陷入困境的煤炭行业面 临更严峻的挑战。 然而，市场普遍认为，如此大规模的官方减产目标难以完全兑现。格林大华期货认为，参考过去几年， 印尼官方对煤炭产量预估与实际原煤产量差距较大。例如2022年至2025年，官方预估的产量分别为6.63 亿吨、6.95亿吨、7.1亿吨、7.35亿吨，均低于当年的实际产量。因此，印尼煤炭最终是否减量，还要看 实际产量。 印尼是全球最大煤炭出口国，根据印尼能源与矿产资源部数据，2024年印尼煤炭产量达8.36亿吨，出口 5.55亿吨，约占全球煤炭贸易量的33%-35%。该国产量削减将直接减少全球市场流通量，进而推动国际 煤价中枢上移。 2月4日早盘，煤炭板块集体走强，截至午间收盘，煤炭指数涨6.82%、央企煤炭指数涨6.23%、煤炭开 采指数涨5.93%。 个股方面，兖矿能源（600188 ...