Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's multi-year rally may be entering a bearish phase, with technical signals indicating a potential correction towards the $100 region, representing a 47% drop from the last closing price of $189 [1]. Technical Analysis - Nvidia has traded within a defined ascending channel for approximately 12 years, experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles, with recent price action mirroring prior cycle peaks [3]. - The stock recently tested a lower-highs zone near the channel's upper boundary before a sharp pullback, with the monthly RSI showing a bearish divergence, indicating a potential end to the bullish trend [4]. - The RSI has rolled over from overbought levels, and the stock has broken below its 50-week moving average, historically signaling deeper bear phases [6]. - Past corrections have typically extended to the 200-week moving average, which currently sits near $100, forming a downside target [7]. Fundamental Outlook - Nvidia's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, due on February 25, is projected to show revenue between $65.6 billion and $65.9 billion, reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase driven by AI demand [8]. - Analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $1.52 and gross margins around 75%, with a consensus price target of $255.82, implying a 36% upside from the current price of $188 [8]. - Despite bullish sentiment on hyperscaler capex and Blackwell ramps, high expectations may lead to volatility if results do not meet projections [9].

Group 1: Israel Englander's Investment Moves - Hedge fund manager Israel Englander sold 3 million shares of Nvidia, reducing his position by 17%, and bought 543,300 shares of Palantir Technologies, doubling his stake [1][2] - Englander's hedge fund, Millennium Management, outperformed the S&P 500 by 38 percentage points over the last three years [1] Group 2: Nvidia Overview - Nvidia is a leader in the AI infrastructure market, known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that accelerate AI applications [4] - The company's strength lies in vertical integration, providing a complete solution for AI with superior GPUs and data center hardware [5] - Wall Street expects Nvidia's earnings to grow at 38% annually over the next three years, making its current valuation of 47 times earnings attractive [6] - Despite trimming his position, Nvidia remains the third-largest holding in Englander's hedge fund, indicating continued confidence in the company [7] Group 3: Palantir Overview - Palantir Technologies specializes in data integration and analytics platforms, focusing on AI software that enables developers to build large language models [9] - The company has received accolades for its AI software, with recognition from Forrester Research and Morgan Stanley as a leader in AI decisioning platforms [10] - Palantir's sales growth has accelerated for 10 consecutive quarters, achieving a Rule of 40 score of 127% in the fourth quarter [10] - Despite a 35% drop from its high, Palantir is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500, trading at 72 times sales, significantly higher than its peers [10] - Englander's small position in Palantir suggests he may anticipate a rebound, although it does not rank among his top 50 holdings [11]

Core Insights - Meta Platforms and Nvidia have formed a new partnership focused on AI infrastructures [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The partnership aims to enhance AI capabilities and infrastructure, potentially impacting the AI stock market positively [1] - Nvidia's stock price showed a slight increase of 1.02% on February 18, 2026, indicating market optimism regarding the partnership [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The collaboration between Meta and Nvidia is expected to drive advancements in AI technologies, which could lead to increased competition among AI stocks [1] - The partnership may set a precedent for future collaborations in the tech industry, particularly in AI development [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia is finalizing a $30 billion equity investment in OpenAI, shifting from a complex long-term commitment to a more direct capital arrangement [1][2] - The initial $100 billion deal was stalled due to internal concerns at Nvidia regarding the terms, with Jensen Huang emphasizing that the agreement was non-binding [1][2] - OpenAI's larger funding round aims to raise over $100 billion, potentially valuing the company at $730 billion, excluding new capital [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The $30 billion investment is part of a broader financing plan for OpenAI, which is expected to reinvest most of the new capital into Nvidia hardware [1][2] - The original $100 billion agreement involved Nvidia planning to invest in ten installments of $10 billion each, contingent on OpenAI's growing demand for computing power [2] - The new arrangement will support the construction of new gigawatt-level computing resources, with potential for further transactions over time [2] Group 2: Relationship Dynamics - Despite the changes in the investment structure, both Sam Altman and Jensen Huang have publicly maintained a positive relationship between the two companies [3] - OpenAI is also in discussions with SoftBank for an additional $30 billion investment, while Amazon may invest up to $50 billion as part of a broader collaboration [3] - OpenAI executives are actively meeting with venture capitalists and other investors to secure additional interest, planning to spend approximately $600 billion on computing resources by 2030 [3]

Core Insights - Taalas, a startup founded two years ago with a team of 24, has launched a new chip, HC1, which achieves a peak inference speed of 17,000 tokens per second, significantly outperforming competitors like Cerebras at 2,000 tokens per second [1][3][5] - The HC1 chip reduces costs by 20 times and power consumption by 10 times compared to existing solutions, enabling real-time response speeds for large language models (LLMs) [1][3] - Taalas's innovative approach involves embedding the model directly onto the silicon chip, which allows for a drastic increase in performance and efficiency [3][6] Company Overview - Taalas was founded by a team of former AMD executives, including Ljubiša Bajić, who has a strong background in high-performance GPU design [11][13] - The company focuses on developing a new architecture specifically for AI inference and training, emphasizing layered design and lattice networks [11][13] Technology and Performance - The HC1 chip utilizes TSMC's N6 process technology, with a compact size of 815mm² and a typical power consumption of 250W per chip [5][6] - By adopting a structured ASIC design philosophy, HC1 can quickly produce specialized AI inference chips at a lower cost, reducing the production cycle from six months to two months [6][8] - The chip's architecture allows for the storage of models and weights directly on the chip, enhancing speed and efficiency while maintaining some flexibility for model updates [8][10] Market Position and Future Plans - Taalas has raised $200 million in funding and plans to release a second-generation variant of HC1 in the spring, which will integrate a medium-sized inference model [13] - The company aims to deploy HC2 in the winter, which will feature higher density and faster operation [13] - Despite the impressive speed of HC1, there are concerns regarding its depth of inference and potential obsolescence due to rapid model iteration cycles [15][17]

Group 1 - Nvidia's strategy of supporting CoreWeave to create a "compute-finance" loop is compelling, prompting Google and AMD to explore building their own AI chip ecosystems [1] - Google is negotiating to invest approximately $100 million in the cloud computing startup Fluidstack, valuing it at around $7.5 billion, aiming to enhance its AI chip usage among computing providers [2] - Google is also providing financing support to former cryptocurrency mining companies like Hut 8 and Cipher Mining, facilitating their transition to AI compute factories in exchange for adopting Google's TPU chips [3] Group 2 - AMD is taking a more aggressive approach by providing substantial backing for a $300 million loan to the startup Crusoe, which will be used to purchase AMD's AI chips, including a "buyback clause" if Crusoe cannot find customers [4] - Both Google and AMD are circumventing traditional cloud giants due to their lack of interest in TPU chips, as major providers like Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure are focused on developing their own AI chips [5] - Google is considering restructuring its TPU team into an independent department to attract external capital, although this has been officially denied, and faces challenges with production capacity and global shortages of essential components [7]

Group 1 - The tech sector is undergoing a transition to AI, with Nvidia positioned to benefit despite recent stock price declines [1][4] - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, believes the shift to AI will take years, indicating that the sector has not yet reached its peak [5] - Nvidia forecasts fiscal Q4 sales of $65 billion, a significant increase from the previous year's $39.3 billion, suggesting strong ongoing demand for AI [6] Group 2 - Nvidia's market cap is $4.6 trillion, with a current stock price of $189.67 and a gross margin of 70.05% [8] - The company is forming strategic partnerships, including a $5 billion investment in Intel, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities for future semiconductor chips [8] - The stock's forward earnings multiple has dropped to levels not seen since the previous administration's tariff policies, indicating an attractive valuation for potential investors [10]

Core Insights - AI disruption fears are impacting market performance, with some analysts considering these fears to be overblown [1] - Dan Ies from Wed Bush has outlined ten factors that could halt the tech sector's decline, referring to the current market conditions as the "AI ghost trade overhang" [1] Company Developments - OpenAI is expected to raise $100 billion in its next funding round, which could positively influence market sentiment [2] - Nvidia is anticipated to report strong demand in its upcoming earnings report, which is a key event for the market [3] - Oracle has successfully raised capital, alleviating concerns regarding its debt-to-equity ratio [2] - Salesforce, which has faced a decline, is expected to deliver positive earnings next week [2] Market Trends - The tech sector has seen significant capital expenditure commitments, totaling approximately $650 billion from four major hyperscalers [3] - The upcoming week will see earnings reports from about 56 companies in the S&P 500, with a focus on software firms following recent selloffs [5] - Consumer names such as Home Depot, TJX, and Lowe's are also highlighted as important for the upcoming week [5] Geopolitical Factors - Markets are closely monitoring the implications of tariffs and the legal aspects of recent announcements [6] - Tensions in the Middle East are also a point of concern for market participants [6]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian airline Azul has successfully exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, achieving key restructuring goals including improved capital structure, increased liquidity, and reduced debt levels [1]. Financial Restructuring - Azul has reduced its debt and lease obligations by approximately $2.5 billion during the restructuring process [1]. - The company raised nearly $1.4 billion through debt financing and $950 million in equity investments as part of its restructuring efforts [1]. Industry Context - Azul filed for Chapter 11 in May 2025, joining a trend of Latin American airlines seeking bankruptcy protection due to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the aviation sector [1]. - Competitors such as Aeromexico, Avianca, Gol, and LATAM Airlines have also filed for bankruptcy since early 2020, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry [1].

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock rose by 1.02%, with a trading volume of $33.421 billion. The company is reportedly close to investing $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a long-anticipated funding round, with previous reports indicating an investment of $20 billion in this round [1][10] - This investment will replace a previously planned larger agreement, which was initially reported to be up to $100 billion but was stalled due to CEO Jensen Huang's private criticisms of OpenAI [10] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla's stock increased by 0.03%, with a trading volume of $23.677 billion. A federal judge upheld a $243 million judgment against Tesla related to a fatal 2019 accident involving a Model S equipped with the Autopilot system [10][11] - Analyst Baird upgraded Tesla's stock rating to "outperform" with a target price of $548, noting that recent quarterly performances have not deterred investor focus on Tesla's future [11] Group 3: Google - Google's Class A shares rose by 4.08%, with a trading volume of $16.288 billion. The company is exploring new ways to expand its AI chip market to better compete with Nvidia [10][12] - Google's chips are gaining wider adoption for AI workloads, but the company faces challenges such as manufacturing partner capacity constraints and limited interest from cloud computing competitors [12] Group 4: Amazon - Amazon's stock increased by 2.59%, with a trading volume of $13.636 billion. Morgan Stanley maintains Amazon as a preferred stock, believing its cloud services and retail business are undervalued beneficiaries of generative AI [12] - Analysts noted that Amazon's current stock price corresponds to a 19x GAAP EPS for 2027, with an implied forward growth rate of about 20%, and a 40% discount compared to peers on a PEG basis [12][3] Group 5: Micron and SanDisk - Micron's stock rose by 2.59%, with a trading volume of $12.576 billion, as the storage sector saw a general increase [13] - SanDisk's stock increased by 4.65%, with a trading volume of $10.748 billion [14] Group 6: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms' stock rose by 1.69%, with a trading volume of $9.215 billion. The company has reduced the stock option grants for most employees by about 5%, following a previous reduction of 10% the prior year [14] - The compensation structure for Meta employees includes base salary, annual bonuses, and equity refreshers, with the company aiming to maintain competitive compensation [14] Group 7: Oracle and CoreWeave - Oracle's stock fell by 5.40%, with a trading volume of $4.378 billion, marking a cumulative decline of 7.5% for the week and over 23% year-to-date [14] - CoreWeave's stock dropped by 8.12%, with a trading volume of $4.09 billion. The CEO disclosed the sale of shares valued at approximately $7.72 million [14][15]