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ClearBridge Emerging Markets Strategy Q4 2025 Commentary (Mutual Fund:MCEIX)
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-12 15:15
Market and Performance Overview - Emerging markets advanced 4.7% in Q4 2025, finishing as one of the best-performing global equity asset classes, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 33.6% for the year, outperforming the MSCI EAFE Index (+31.2%) and the U.S. S&P 500 Index (+17.9%) [2] - Performance in Q4 was led by Korea and Taiwan, with Korean equities soaring 27.3% driven by a 50% gain in the IT sector, while Taiwanese stocks climbed 10.4% due to AI-related momentum [3] Sector Performance - The IT sector gained 16.4%, bolstered by AI-related stocks, while the materials sector advanced 11.6% as gold prices rose over 10% and copper prices hit record highs [6] - Energy, financials, and industrials sectors outperformed the index, while consumer discretionary, communication services, health care, and real estate underperformed [6] Company Highlights - SK Hynix saw its shares soar over 80% in Q4 and nearly tripled for the year due to increased demand for DRAM and NAND memory, particularly for AI workloads [7] - Samsung Electronics also experienced strong performance, benefiting from memory shortages that enhanced pricing power [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor, a leading manufacturer of high-end chips for Nvidia, significantly outperformed the benchmark [7] Regional Contributions - Significant contributors included China's Sieyuan Electric and Korea's HD Hyundai Electric, supporting AI data center buildouts [10] - Capitec Bank in South Africa delivered strong financial results, while Titan, an Indian jewelry retailer, showed encouraging performance despite India's overall underperformance [10] Detractors - Alibaba and Tencent surrendered gains due to a broader rotation out of China, while Contemporary Amperex Technology also faced declines [11] - MercadoLibre remained weak amid competition concerns in Brazil, and Apollo Hospitals detracted due to its large portfolio weight in a lagging Indian market [12] Portfolio Positioning - The strategy added four new positions, including Raia Drogasil and Nu Holdings in Brazil, while exiting positions in B3 S.A. and Proya Cosmetics [13][14][17] - Upgraded exposure in Indonesia by replacing PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia with PT Bank Central Asia, which has a strong deposit franchise [15] Outlook - The emerging market recovery is viewed as being in its early stages, with appealing valuations and supportive macroeconomic drivers [18] - Anticipated increased foreign investments into EM equities, driven by lower valuations and stronger economic growth [19] - The Chinese economy shows signs of increased stability, with improved trade relations and a more optimistic outlook [20] - Emerging markets offer opportunities in world-class companies with technological innovation, particularly in sectors like industrial automation, e-commerce, and fintech [21] - India remains a focus due to its large population and status as the fastest-growing major global economy, despite challenges faced in 2025 [22] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Emerging Market Strategy outperformed its benchmark in Q4, with gains across five of the nine sectors invested [23] - Stock selection in IT and industrials sectors contributed positively, while communication services and an underweight in materials detracted from performance [24] - Leading contributors included SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Capitec Bank, while Tencent, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre were primary detractors [25]
An Interview with Ben Thompson by John Collison on the Cheeky Pint Podcast
Stratechery By Ben Thompson· 2026-02-12 13:00
Group 1: Life in Taiwan - Taiwan is characterized as a highly convenient place to live, with a mix of commercial and residential areas that enhance accessibility [7][8] - The food culture in Taiwan is highlighted, particularly the popularity of night markets and the convenience of food delivery services like Uber Eats [10][11] - Despite its rich culture and proximity to natural beauty, Taiwan is described as having an unattractive urban landscape, with many dilapidated buildings [9] Group 2: Ads and AI - The discussion emphasizes the importance of advertising as an efficient monetization strategy, contrasting it with skepticism prevalent in the tech industry [22][23] - The effectiveness of ads is noted, particularly in how they can enhance consumer experiences by introducing products that users may not have been aware of [30][31] - The conversation critiques the current ad models in AI applications, suggesting that they should focus on user profiling rather than context-based targeting to avoid user suspicion [35][36] Group 3: Meta's Platform Dynamics - Meta's struggle with its identity as a platform versus an advertising company is discussed, indicating that its focus on being a platform has hindered its advertising potential [51][58] - The conversation points out that Meta's success is largely due to its feed and targeted advertising, which has proven to be effective in engaging users [53][56] - The need for Meta to embrace its role as an entertainment company rather than solely a social media platform is emphasized, suggesting that this shift could improve its long-term viability [58][60] Group 4: TikTok and ByteDance - The complexities surrounding TikTok's ownership and the control of its algorithm by ByteDance are highlighted, indicating that the U.S. political process has failed to address this critical issue [66][68] - The discussion reflects on the implications of having a major information source controlled by a geopolitical adversary, raising concerns about national security and information integrity [67][68] - The conversation concludes that the outcome of the TikTok situation has resulted in a failure to secure control over the algorithm, which is seen as a significant oversight [68][70] Group 5: Agentic Commerce - The potential for AI to transform e-commerce through agentic commerce is explored, suggesting that AI could streamline the purchasing process and enhance user experience [90][91] - The conversation outlines a multi-level approach to improving e-commerce, starting with better user interfaces and progressing to personalized recommendations based on user preferences [92][93] - The discussion acknowledges the existing power of advertising in driving consumer behavior, suggesting that AI could further enhance this by anticipating user needs [96][97]
U.S. Futures Edge Higher as Investors Await Key Economic Data and Corporate Earnings Unfold
Stock Market News· 2026-02-12 11:07
Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains, with Dow Jones futures up approximately 0.3% to 0.4%, S&P 500 futures climbing around 0.3%, and Nasdaq Composite futures advancing by about 0.2% to 0.3% [2] - Major U.S. indexes ended largely flat or slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down less than 0.1%, Dow Jones dipping 0.1% to 50,121.40 points, and Nasdaq declining 0.2% to 23,066.47 points [3] Economic Data - A robust U.S. Labor Department report indicated that employers added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding forecasts, which tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims and existing home sales, which will provide insights into the U.S. labor market and housing sector [4] - The most anticipated economic event is Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for January, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [5] Corporate News - Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares fell approximately 7% to 8% due to weak quarterly guidance and lower gross margins, impacting the broader technology sector [6] - McDonald's (MCD) shares slipped slightly despite beating earnings estimates, indicating investor concerns about other aspects of its report [7] - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) experienced an 8.8% drop after revenue fell short of forecasts and concerns about its 2026 expense outlook [7] - Moderna (MRNA) saw its stock fall 3.5% after the FDA refused to review its application for a new flu vaccine [8] - Kraft Heinz (KHC) shares rose 0.4% after announcing a pause in plans to split the company and revealing a $600 million investment [8] - Unity (U) plunged over 25% in premarket trading despite strong fourth-quarter results due to disappointing first-quarter revenue guidance [9] - Micron Technology (MU) stock soared nearly 10%, leading a rally in semiconductor stocks globally [10] - Other notable premarket movers include Equinix (EQIX) gaining 8.64% and Sandisk (SNDK) up 6.07%, while Rollins (ROL) dropped 12.50% and Paycom Software (PAYC) fell 8.22% [11] International Market Movements - Siemens AG (SIEGY) rallied over 6% after boosting its 2026 outlook, while EssilorLuxottica SA (ESLOY) surged 10% on strong demand for AI-powered glasses [12] - Schroders Plc (SDR.L) jumped 30% on news of its acquisition by U.S. peer Nuveen [12] Sector Performance - Among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) posted modest gains, while Alphabet (GOOGL) declined 2.4% [13] - Energy sector stocks saw gains, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 2.6% and Smurfit Westrock (SMFT) surging 9.9% [13] Market Sentiment - The market remains focused on the interplay between economic data, corporate performance, and the Federal Reserve's potential path for interest rates, with trading likely influenced by ongoing assessments of these factors [14]
Asian Shares Mixed As Traders Reassess Rate Path
RTTNews· 2026-02-12 08:36
Market Overview - Asian stocks ended mixed, with a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report boosting optimism but dampening hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term [1] - Precious metals, including gold, saw a decline, with gold falling by 0.5% to trade below $5,060 an ounce due to a strengthening U.S. dollar [1] - Oil prices experienced slight increases amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran [1] Regional Indices - China's Shanghai Composite index rose marginally to 4,134.02, influenced by reports of a potential extension of the U.S.-China trade truce [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 0.86% to 27,032.54, negatively impacted by stock performance [2] - Japan's Nikkei average finished slightly lower at 57,639.84 after a volatile session, while the broader Topix index increased by 0.70% to 3,882.16 [3] - Seoul's Kospi index closed 3.13% higher at 5,522.27, driven by significant gains in technology shares, particularly Samsung Electronics, which surged by 6.4% [5] - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.32% to 9,043.50, supported by strong earnings from ANZ Group, which saw an 8.5% increase in its shares [5] - New Zealand's S&P/NZX-50 index edged up by 0.18% to 13,531.48, with Skellerup Holdings gaining 1.8% after reporting record half-year earnings [6] Company Performance - Shiseido's shares soared nearly 16% following fourth-quarter earnings and a full-year forecast that exceeded analyst expectations [4] - Honda Motor's stock fell by 3.5% after reporting a significant decline in third-quarter operating profit [4] - SoftBank Group's shares increased by 2.4% prior to announcing its financial results [4]
China's Zhipu Jolts AI Race as 'Scare Trade' Grips US | The China Show 2/12/2026
Bloomberg Television· 2026-02-12 06:51
It's 9 am in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and here in Hong Kong, you're watching the China show. I'm Annabelle Droulers with David Ingles. Good morning.We are counting down to the open of markets in greater China. Our top stories today, Asian stocks rising, treasuries sliding as traders trimming bets for a Fed rate cuts following a stronger than expected US jobs report. So the so-called scare trade spreads to this region with real estate services, biotech stocks, tracking declines among peers on Wall Street.Meanwhil ...
Is Now a Good Time to Revisit International ETFs Like SCHF?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-11 18:55
Many investors have likely considered reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks over the past year. That "ABUSA" (Anywhere But USA) trade is supported by four core arguments. First, the S&P 500 is still hovering near its record highs, looks historically expensive at 30 times earnings, and trades at a premium to most other global markets. Second, the S&P 500's gains were driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks -- including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple -- instead of a balanced mix of sectors. If those Magn ...
HP Inc. (HPQ) Balances Procurement Strategy With Security Commitments
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-11 17:20
Group 1 - HP Inc. is considering sourcing memory chips from Chinese manufacturers, marking a significant shift in procurement strategy for major PC brands that have traditionally relied on suppliers from the US, South Korea, and Taiwan [1][3] - Dell and HP have started qualifying DRAM chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies, while Acer and Asus are also requesting locally-made memory chips from their Chinese partners [2] - The move comes amid a severe memory shortage affecting electronics supply chains, with major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron focusing their manufacturing on high-bandwidth memory for AI data centers [3] Group 2 - HP has renewed its multi-year agreement with Karamba Security to license XGuard cybersecurity software for its printer products, extending a partnership that began in 2020 [4] - The agreement covers networked and cloud-connected printers, which are treated as computing devices vulnerable to cyberattacks, with XGuard technology integrated into the firmware to enhance security [5] Group 3 - HP Inc. develops and sells personal computers, printers, and related hardware, software, and services, serving both consumer and enterprise markets globally [6]
Morgan Stanley just pored over 3,600 stocks and says these are the best opportunities from the AI shakeout
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-11 14:25
Morgan Stanley sifted through opportunities after the AI shakeout. - Getty Images The jobs report may overshadow the market’s recent preoccupation on just how much artificial intelligence will damage the growth prospects for software and other industries. But the AI concerns are likely to come quickly back to the surface. Morgan Stanley strategists just published a fifth version of what they call global AI stock mapping, sifting through 3,600 names in search of trends and opportunities. One central obser ...
Futures Rise Ahead Of Today's Delayed Jobs Report
ZeroHedge· 2026-02-11 13:29
Market Overview - US equity futures are flat, with S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures both up 0.1% as the market anticipates weaker payroll data following a Retail Sales miss and weaker high-frequency data [1] - International markets show mixed trends, with Japan closed, KOSPI up 1%, and HSI up 0.3%, while European markets are mostly flat to down [1] - Commodities are moving higher, led by silver, with crude oil prices quietly rising [1] Company Performance - In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Nvidia up 0.6% and Tesla down 0.2% [3] - Astera Labs falls 11% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter results and announcing the retirement of its CFO [3] - Beta Technologies climbs 18% after Amazon disclosed a stake in the electric aircraft manufacturer [3] - Centrus Energy falls 8% as its fourth-quarter earnings per share missed analyst estimates due to higher-than-expected capex spending [3] - Cloudflare gains 14% after beating fourth-quarter expectations and providing a bullish revenue forecast [3] - Humana falls 6% after forecasting full-year profit below Wall Street expectations, raising concerns about the US health-insurance industry [3] - Kraft Heinz drops 6% after pausing its planned separation as the new CEO seeks to improve results [3] - Lyft falls 17% after issuing a disappointing forecast that missed Wall Street expectations [3] - Mattel slumps 26% after its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast missed analyst estimates, leading to a downgrade at JPMorgan [3] - Moderna falls 10% after US regulators refused to review its novel mRNA flu vaccine [3] - Rapid7 declines 22% after a disappointing outlook, with analysts citing weakness in annual recurring revenue [3] Earnings Reports - Out of 326 S&P 500 companies that have reported, 78% have beaten analyst forecasts, while 17% have missed [11] - T-Mobile, Shopify, and Kraft Heinz are among companies expected to report before the market opens [11] Economic Indicators - Analysts expect January's payrolls report to show 65,000 job additions, with a whisper number of 35,000, amid expectations of a significant downward revision of 750,000 to 900,000 jobs through March 2025 [4][25] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4% [25] - The market is currently pricing in two or three Fed rate cuts this year, with a growing probability of a cut by April [5][38]
Canada Mass School Shooting & EU Advances US Trade Deal | Daybreak Europe 2/11/2026
Bloomberg Television· 2026-02-11 08:17
>> LIVE FROM LONDON, THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE." ASIAN STOCKS TOOK HISTORIC HIGHS AFTER WEAK US RETAIL SALES. TRADERS CLOSELY WATCHING FOR PAYROLLS DUE LATER. LAWMAKERS MAY PUSH TO APPROVING THE U.S. TRADE DEAL WITH THE PAUSE ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S RING AND THREAT.WE WILL HAVE INTERVIEWS WITH THE GERMAN LENDER CEO LATER THIS HOUR. A VERY GOOD MORNING, WELCOME TO WEDNESDAY WHICH WEIRDLY IS JOBS DAY. WE ALREADY GOT THOSE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAK RETAIL SALES NUMBERS YESTERDAY.I WILL SHOW YOU THE IMPACT ON TR ...