铜周报：短线高位盘整，节前谨慎操作 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 n 宏观面 沪铜主力和LME3Month 8000.00 9000.00 10000.00 11000.00 12000.00 13000.00 14000.00 70000.00 75000.00 80000.00 85000.00 90000.00 95000.00 100000.00 105000.00 110000.00 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 2026-01-01 2026-02-01 元/吨 美元/吨 沪铜主力 伦铜3M 1月24日加工费跌到负值 2月25日，特朗普要求对美国铜进口展开 ...

消息面上，天齐锂业公布，有关重要参股公司SQM与Codelco签署合伙协议及提起诉讼，收到智利最高 法院就诉讼作出判决书，维持智利法院裁决，该裁决驳回其提交的上诉请求，该判决为诉讼终审判决。 该集团指，上诉被驳回不改变有关减值测试相关假设，因此预计该诉讼判决暂不会对当期利润产生重大 影响。该集团将保留后续一切可能的维护公司权利途径，不排除采取进一步行动。 天齐锂业（002466）(09696)盘中跌超5%，截至发稿，跌3.86%，报54.8港元，成交额2.74亿港元。 该集团指，SQM披露子公司与Codelco的子公司合并先决条件解决，使合伙协议所涉交易生效。该集团 指，合伙协议风险方面，包括SQM丧失其核心锂业务控制权、SQM锂业务收益受到影响进而影响集团 投资回报和经济利益及集团参与SQM公司治理的权益受到影响。 ...

消息面上，天齐锂业公布，有关重要参股公司SQM与Codelco签署合伙协议及提起诉讼，收到智利最高 法院就诉讼作出判决书，维持智利法院裁决，该裁决驳回其提交的上诉请求，该判决为诉讼终审判决。 该集团指，上诉被驳回不改变有关减值测试相关假设，因此预计该诉讼判决暂不会对当期利润产生重大 影响。该集团将保留后续一切可能的维护公司权利途径，不排除采取进一步行动。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)盘中跌超5%，截至发稿，跌3.86%，报54.8港元，成交额2.74亿港 元。 该集团指，SQM披露子公司与Codelco的子公司合并先决条件解决，使合伙协议所涉交易生效。该集团 指，合伙协议风险方面，包括SQM丧失其核心锂业务控制权、SQM锂业务收益受到影响进而影响集团 投资回报和经济利益及集团参与SQM公司治理的权益受到影响。 ...

Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a significant shift away from traditional cyclical patterns, with exploration and discovery of new deposits declining over decades [1][2] - Major copper discoveries are becoming rarer and smaller, with the industry relying on existing deposits rather than finding new significant sources [2][4] - The structural issues in the copper supply chain are compounded by various disruptions, leading to fragile supply conditions [5][7] Industry Trends - Exploration budgets have increased post-2020, but the results have not improved, indicating a stagnation in finding new, impactful copper deposits [2][4] - Companies are focusing on expanding existing operations rather than exploring new sites, which leads to increased costs and declining ore grades [3][4] - Codelco, the largest copper producer, exemplifies the trend of needing substantial capital expenditures just to maintain current production levels [4] Supply Chain Challenges - In 2025, approximately 550,000 tons of copper production are expected to be lost due to various disruptions, including labor disputes and geotechnical issues [5] - The copper supply chain is fragile, with little margin for error, as disruptions are not driven by demand but by operational challenges [5][7] - Regulatory hurdles are significant, with many promising deposits still not in production due to lengthy approval processes [7] Price Dynamics - The relationship between copper and silver supply is critical, as delays in copper projects can adversely affect silver production, which often comes as a byproduct [7][8] - The spot price of silver has increased by over 270% in the last year, reflecting the interconnected challenges within the metals market [8] - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.75%, indicating market interest despite underlying supply issues [9]

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining and Production - **Key Players**: Major copper mining countries include Chile (23%), Peru (12%), DRC (14%), China (8%), and the US (6%) [3][76]. The largest copper companies globally in 2025 are Codelco, BHP, and Freeport, accounting for approximately 6%, 6%, and 4% of the market respectively [3][76]. Supply Dynamics - **Global Production**: In 2025, global refined copper production was approximately 28 million tons (mt), consisting of about 23mt from mine production and 5mt from secondary supply [3]. Mine production is identified as the structural constraint to copper production rather than smelting or refining [3]. - **Fragmentation**: The copper mining sector is relatively fragmented with over 400 operational copper mines, where the top 10 miners account for around 40% of the total market [3]. - **Future Supply Growth**: Supply growth is expected to remain close to zero in 2025, driven by limited new project approvals and declining copper capital expenditures [73]. Forecasted mine supply growth for 2026 is less than 1% [73]. Demand Dynamics - **Demand Breakdown**: China is the largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 50% of total demand, followed by Europe (15%) and North America (9%) [4][41]. Key end-use sectors include electrical networks (25%), construction (25%), and automotive [4][41]. - **Growth Drivers**: Future demand growth is expected to be driven by energy transition applications, including renewable power generation and automotive electrification (EVs) [4][52]. Over the past 30 years, copper demand has grown at an average rate of 2.5% per annum [4]. Energy Transition Impact - **Role in Energy Transition**: Copper is critical for electrification and is a key material in solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage systems [52]. The demand from energy transition applications is projected to account for approximately 40% of global copper demand by 2025 [53]. - **Forecasts**: The report estimates that demand from electric vehicles (1.8mt) and renewables (2.9mt) will account for about 14% of global demand in 2025 [53]. Supply Disruptions - **Historical Disruptions**: Copper mine supply has historically struggled to meet guidance, with disruptions remaining elevated at over 5% in 2025 due to issues at major mines [90]. Disruptions have included strikes, technical challenges, and adverse weather conditions [90]. Project Pipeline and Future Outlook - **Project Development**: The number of large 'Tier 1' copper mines is decreasing, but there is a strong incentive to invest in new projects due to the increasing demand for copper [96]. The report anticipates more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and an acceleration in project development to fill the project pipeline [100]. - **Incentive Price**: The report suggests that an incentive price of $5.0/lb is necessary to generate acceptable returns on new projects, reflecting a 15-20% increase in the incentive price curve over the last two years [104]. Conclusion - The copper industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by strong demand driven by energy transition, constrained supply growth, and significant project development challenges. The interplay between these factors will shape the future dynamics of the copper market.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The LME spot of copper is strengthening and the price is firm. The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive sentiment [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Copper Fundamental Data** - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 101,680 with a night - session increase of 0.49%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk had a closing price of 12,987 with a daily increase of 1.39% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 463,663, a decrease of 169,391 from the previous day, and the open interest was 627,161, a decrease of 16,429. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 20,647, a decrease of 12,054, and the open interest was 327,000, an increase of 2,567 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 152,655, a decrease of 7,762, and the LME copper inventory was 147,425, an increase of 3,850. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 32.93%, a decrease of 1.60% [1] - **Spreads**: There were various changes in spreads such as LME copper ascension and premium, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] **3.2 Macro and Industry News** - **Macro News**: In 2025, China's high - tech manufacturing led the economy, achieving the GDP growth target of 5%. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. Trump allegedly threatened the EU and made statements about Greenland and tariffs [1] - **Industry News**: Chile's Codelco submitted a $1.3 billion plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. During the "15th Five - Year Plan", State Grid's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan". Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike [1][3]

Chilean state-run miner Codelco is expected to produce 1.344 million metric tons of copper in 2026, up about 10,000 tons from last year, Chairman Maximo Pacheco said on Monday. ...

Core Viewpoint - American Lithium Minerals Inc. (AMLM) has announced the acquisition of two significant projects in Chile, the La Grande Plata silver project and the Furano copper-gold porphyry project, marking a strategic expansion into the Chilean mining sector [1][2]. Acquisition Details - AMLM has secured exclusive options to acquire 100% ownership of both projects, leveraging Aeramentum Resources Limited's due diligence and exploration planning [2]. - The acquisition involves purchasing 100% of the projects through AMLM securities, with additional contingent payments linked to defined discovery milestones [3]. Project Highlights La Grande Plata - La Grande Plata is a high-grade silver project located in northern Chile, featuring up to 10km of identified mineralized strike and average grades of approximately 400g/t AgEq [4][5]. - The project spans 1,325 hectares and has significant alteration zones, making it a prime target for rapid resource definition [5]. Furano - Furano is a promising copper-gold porphyry project covering 9,000 hectares, with historical drilling showing significant mineralization, including 100m at 0.9% CuEq [6]. - The project is drill-ready with 39 permitted drill pads and a planned 2,000m drilling program [7]. Strategic Importance - The acquisition is seen as transformative for AMLM, adding high-impact silver and copper assets in a premier mining jurisdiction, surrounded by major companies like BHP and Codelco [6][8]. - The transaction is expected to close in Q1 2026, with drilling anticipated to commence in mid-2026, positioning the company for growth in a favorable metals market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The refined copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential U.S. tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions, leading to increased domestic prices and a surge in imports [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. copper imports reached their highest level since July, driven by the anticipation of tariffs and a premium on domestic prices [1]. - The Department of Commerce is conducting a market assessment, which may lead to formal decisions on refined metal duties, further distorting global trade flows [2]. - Copper prices have surged to record highs, exceeding $13,000 per ton in London and $6 per pound in New York, influenced by geopolitical risks and strong demand from sectors like renewable energy [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Structural tightness in the global copper market is evident, with declining inventories outside the U.S. and repeated supply disruptions contributing to expectations of persistent shortfalls [2]. - A series of operational setbacks and accidents in major producing regions have curtailed production growth, exacerbating supply constraints [9][10]. - Smelters are facing difficulties in securing sufficient concentrate, leading to record-low treatment and refining charges, indicating upstream supply constraints [11]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The International Energy Agency forecasts a potential copper supply shortfall of 30% by 2035, driven by declining ore grades and rising capital costs [12]. - Market concentration is increasing, with the top three refining nations controlling 86% of processing capacity for major energy minerals, raising concerns about the copper market's vulnerability to geopolitical shocks [13]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Traders can gain exposure to copper prices through futures contracts, which offer high liquidity and responsiveness to market changes [14]. - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a diversified approach for investors, allowing them to track copper prices without the complexities of futures trading [15]. - Direct investment in copper-producing companies offers leveraged exposure to copper prices, with major players like Glencore and BHP being core holdings in this segment [16].