Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a state of caution due to the game between supply constraints and trade uncertainties. Macro risks have eased, and the supply shortage logic persists, providing long - term opportunities for bulls. Attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. [6][10] - For aluminum, it is still testing the 21,000 - yuan level. The market is worried about the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions. In the short - term, the price shows a convergent oscillation. In the long - term, there is a bullish view on the unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. [78] - Regarding alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800 yuan. The spot market is weak in the short - term, but it has entered the cost - valuation support test phase. [79] Summary by Directory Copper Industry Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and SHFE copper volatility is around 25%. [16] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed, and the near - end structure of COMEX copper has changed from B to C. [18][22] - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots. [23] - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has also decreased slightly. [29] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the bonded - area copper premium has declined. [32][34] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. [35][37] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has recovered, while that of SHFE copper is at a historically low level. [38] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has remained weak. [41] - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has narrowed, and the import loss has also decreased. [42][47] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. [51] - Refined Copper: The production and import of refined copper have increased year - on - year, and the spot import loss has narrowed. [54][55] Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises has rebounded in September, and the operating rate of wire and cable has increased marginally. [58] - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a historically low level, while that of copper tubes has recovered. [60][62] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. [63] - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. [66] Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and grid investment is an important support. The grid investment has accelerated, and the cumulative investment from January to August reached 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. [71][73] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The production of air - conditioners has resumed growth, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. [74] Aluminum and Alumina Industry Trading End - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina has strengthened, and the near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed. [82][85] - Volume and Position: The position of SHFE aluminum and alumina main contracts has increased slightly, while the trading volume has decreased slightly. [88] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum and alumina has declined. [93] Inventory End - Bauxite: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of alumina enterprises has continued to accumulate, the port shipping volume and floating inventory have decreased, and the out - port and in - port volumes have also declined. [98][103][104] - Alumina: The social inventory of alumina has increased, and the price has continued to decline. [79] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the spot premium has changed from discount to flat or premium. [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market shows a neutral performance with prices ranging from 83,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index's rapid rise indicates increased market uncertainty. The market is cautious due to the game between supply constraints and trade concerns [3]. - Macro risks have affected investor sentiment, but they have recently eased. The raw - material supply shortage persists, potentially leading to a future copper supply gap. Global copper inventories increased this week, with a significant rise in domestic inventories. The supply - shortage logic provides long - term opportunities for long - position allocation, and attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. The long - short spread trading position can continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 25% [13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end structure has changed from B to C [15][19]. - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the COMEX copper position has increased. The SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 77,500 lots on October 3rd to 76,700 lots on October 17th [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, while the bonded - area copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium rose from 20 yuan/ton on October 10th to 55 yuan/ton on October 17th, and the Yangshan Port copper premium fell from 49 dollars/ton to 37 dollars/ton [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a notable increase in domestic social inventory. The global total inventory increased from 695,700 tons on October 9th to 718,800 tons on October 16th, and the domestic social inventory increased from 166,300 tons to 177,500 tons [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, while the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The year - on - year import of copper concentrate has increased, and the processing fee remains weak. In September 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The port inventory decreased from 509,000 tons on October 10th to 468,000 tons on October 17th [38]. - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The recycled copper import in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.79%, and the domestic production was 94,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.99% [39]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. The blister copper import in August was 61,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.72% [48]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production and import have increased, and the import loss has narrowed. In September, the production was 1.121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. The refined copper import in August was 264,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.87% [52]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in September. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in September but were at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable rebounded marginally in the week of October 17th [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee has increased but is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of October 17th, the copper rod processing fee in the power industry in East China was 520 yuan/ton, higher than 490 yuan/ton on October 10th. The 10 - day moving average of the R410A special copper tube processing fee was 5,165 yuan/ton, higher than 5,112 yuan/ton on October 10th [60]. - Raw - Material Inventory: The raw - material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw - material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [61]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. The finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly high - level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic copper apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to August, the cumulative copper consumption was 10.6172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.04%. From January to July, the apparent consumption was 10.6802 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. The power grid investment from January to August was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [71]. - Other Consumption Areas: The air - conditioner production has resumed growth, and the new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level. The domestic air - conditioner production in August was 12.8801 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.43%. The new - energy vehicle production in September was 1.617 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23.72% [72].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions, such as the shutdown of Indonesian mines and domestic smelter overhauls, support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas demand for high - value - added copper products is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels support copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range. It is expected that copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations in the next one to two weeks, ranging from 79,000 to 81,000 yuan/ton [6][38] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 22, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 80,160 yuan/ton, fluctuating at a high level. The premium of premium copper decreased slightly from 115 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased from 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. However, the LME 0 - 3 month discount narrowed from - 71.09 US dollars/ton to - 64.9 US dollars/ton, and the near - month supply pressure was slightly relieved [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper inventory continued the destocking trend, dropping to 29,893 tons on September 22, a decrease of 6.11% compared to September 16. The SHFE inventory also decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons. In terms of positions, the LME copper position decreased slightly by 504 lots to 289,843 lots on September 19, and the intensity of the long - short game in the market has not significantly increased [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: There are frequent short - term disturbances. The shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg mine due to an accident intensifies the expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the overhaul of smelters in North China, the output of electrolytic copper has decreased. However, the import volume of scrap copper in Africa has increased sharply year - on - year, partially offsetting the supply gap of refined copper. Nevertheless, the year - on - year decline of anode copper imports by 18.72% reflects that there are still hidden concerns in the supply of refined copper raw materials [3] - **需求端**: There is a structural differentiation in external demand. The export of brass bars has decreased by 22.87% year - on - year, but the export of high - value - added products such as copper strips and enameled wires has performed strongly, with significant growth in markets such as South Korea and India. In North China, the recovery of copper prices has suppressed downstream restocking, and pre - holiday stocking has not started yet, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] - **库存端**: Global visible inventories continue to decline, and both LME and SHFE inventories are in the low - level range of the year. The substitution effect of recycled copper supply is enhanced, but the diversification of scrap copper import sources has alleviated the risk of raw material shortage to a certain extent [5] c. Market Summary - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas high - value - added copper product demand is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels provide support for copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range [6] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper price on September 22 was 80,310 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase compared to September 19. The premium of premium copper decreased by 8.70% to 105 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 16.67% to 25 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper decreased by 16.67% to - 35 yuan/ton. The SHFE copper price increased by 0.34% to 80,160 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 6.11% to 29,893 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons [8] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][13][15]

Production & Export - Freeport Indonesia expects to utilize 90% of its copper concentrate export quota before it expires next month [1] - This requires a significant increase in shipments [1]