Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in September, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and core PCE inflation rates [1] Group 2 - In September, personal income in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and matching the previous month's value [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in September showed no change (0%) month-on-month, falling short of the expected increase of 0.1% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] - The core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations and the previous month's figure [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index stood at 2.83%, slightly above the expected 2.8% and down from the previous 2.9% [1] - The overall PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations and remaining consistent with the previous month's increase [1] - Year-on-year, the PCE price index was reported at 2.8%, matching expectations and showing an increase from the previous 2.7% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce will release data on personal income, spending, and the PCE index on November 26 at 10 AM (Beijing time: 11 PM) [1] Group 1 - The upcoming release will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic health in the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to release data on personal income, spending, and the PCE index on November 26 at 10 AM EST [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - The upcoming report will provide insights into personal income and spending trends, which are critical for assessing consumer behavior and economic health [1] - The PCE index is a key measure of inflation, and its release will be closely monitored by analysts and investors [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer demonstrated resilience in August, with increases in both earnings and savings rates [1][2] Economic Indicators - Personal income rose by $95.7 billion, or 0.4% from the previous month, aligning with analyst expectations [2] - Disposable personal income also increased by 0.4%, indicating stable consumer financial health [2] - Personal saving reached $1.06 trillion in August, with a personal saving rate of 4.6%, up from 4.4% in the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, indicating that personal income and spending have declined, suggesting a potential technical recession [1] Economic Indicators - Personal income was expected to grow by approximately 0.3%, but instead, it has shown negative growth [1] - Personal spending figures are also disappointing, reflecting a negative growth trend [1] Economic Outlook - The decline in personal income and spending raises the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the second quarter, potentially leading to negative economic activity [1] - Aside from the core PCE data being slightly above expectations, there were no other surprises in inflation, indicating a broader economic weakness [1] - Overall signs point to a weakening economy, with the possibility that it has already entered a technical recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in personal income and disposable personal income in May, primarily due to a significant drop in social security payments, while private sector wages and salary income showed a modest increase [1] Group 1: Personal Income Trends - Personal income decreased by 0.4% in May [1] - Disposable personal income fell by 0.5% during the same period [1] - The decline in personal income is mainly attributed to a sharp drop in social security payments [1] Group 2: Private Sector Wages - Wages and salary income for private sector workers increased by 0.4% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that personal consumption expenditures in the US decreased by 0.1% in May, which was below the forecast of a 0.1% increase [1] - Additionally, personal income in the US fell by 0.4% in May, compared to the expected decline of 0.3% [1]

Group 1 - The core PCE price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with expectations for a month-over-month increase of 0.1% for both core and overall PCE indices, maintaining the same level as April [1] - Year-over-year, the core PCE price index is expected to rise to 2.6% in May, up from 2.5% in April, while the overall PCE index is projected to increase to 2.3%, compared to 2.1% in April [1] - The upcoming data will also provide insights into consumer spending and income growth, with personal spending expected to grow by 0.2% month-over-month and personal income by 0.3%, a slowdown from April's 0.8% [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts predict that used car prices will remain volatile in the coming months, with the Manheim used car price index rising by 1.7% in early June after a 1.4% decline in May [2] - The Manheim index, reflecting wholesale prices, may indicate an overall upward trend in car prices, as rising new car prices could drive consumers to the used car market [2] - Evercore ISI analysts noted that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.15% in May, with tariffs expected to impact prices in the future but not currently affecting them [2]

Core Insights - In April 2025, personal income in the U.S. increased by $210.1 billion, representing a month-over-month growth of 0.8% [1][4] - Disposable personal income (DPI) also rose by $189.4 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) saw a smaller increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2% [1][4] - The total personal expenditures, which include PCE, personal interest payments, and current transfer payments, increased by $48.6 billion in April [1] Personal Savings and Rates - Personal savings in April amounted to $1.12 trillion, with a personal savings rate of 4.9%, indicating the percentage of DPI that is saved [3] - The increase in personal income was primarily driven by government social welfare and wage increases [3][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Service expenditures rose by $55.8 billion, partially offsetting a $8 billion decrease in goods spending [3] - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% in April, with the core PCE price index also rising by 0.1% [7] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.5% [7] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that aggressive trade policies by the U.S. government may significantly hinder economic growth and elevate inflation [7] - Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower the target interest rate for short-term borrowing in September, with another potential cut in December [7]