订单饱满扩充库存空间，瓶颈缓解提升生 产效率 ——华峰铝业动态跟踪 华峰铝业 601702.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持 2025-27 年 EPS 预测分别为 1.39、1.78、2.19 元。根据可比公司 2025 年 市盈率估值情况，给予公司 2025 年 17 倍市盈率，对应目标价 23.63 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 重庆工厂产能释放不及预期风险、铝板带箔加工费不及预期风险、行业产能释放过快的 风险、宏观经济增速放缓、新应用领域拓展不及预期的风险。 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 营业收入(百万元) 9,291 10,878 12,896 14,621 16,473 同比增长 (%) 8.7% 17.1% 18.5% 13.4% 12.7% 营业利润(百万元) 1,013 1,383 1,517 1,941 2,387 同比增长 (%) 40.0% 36.5% 9.7% 28.0% 22.9% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 899 1,218 1,388 1,776 2,183 同比增长 (%) 35.1% 35.4% 14 ...

| 投资者关 | 特定对象调研 ☑ | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 系活动类 | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 别 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | | 参与单位 | 民生证券 | | | 名称 | | | | 时间 | 11 月 19 日 | | | 地点 | 线上沟通 | | | 上市公司 | 证券事务代表 宋伟女士 | | | 接待人员 | | | | 姓名 | | | | | 1、公司业绩增长的主要驱动因素？ | | | | 公司前三季度业绩增长主要源于三方面：一是核心膜业务收入的稳健 | | | | 提升；二是国内与国际市场的双轮驱动，收入同步增长；三是产品结 | | | | 构持续优化，高附加值产品销量攀升，成为提升盈利能力的核心动能。 | | | 投资者关 | 2、在海外市场拓展中，公司采取了哪些具体措施来保障海外业务的 | | | 系活动主 | 持续健康发展？ | | | 要内容 | 公司通过构建均衡的全球市场布局，以多元化的渠道与本地化运营降 | | | | 低对单一市场的依赖；同时，凭借持续的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue A-shares to specific investors to raise a total of no more than 1.897 billion yuan for various projects including capacity expansion and technological upgrades [1] Group 1: Fundraising Details - The total amount to be raised is capped at 1.897 billion yuan [1] - The funds will be allocated to projects such as the expansion of high-performance aluminum profiles and components for automotive lightweighting in East and South China, the establishment of a research and innovation center, and the intelligent technology transformation of the South China production base [1] - The issuance will target no more than 35 specific investors, including qualified securities investment fund management companies and securities firms as per the regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] Group 2: Issuance Conditions - The issuance price will not be lower than 80% of the average stock price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing benchmark [1] - There will be a lock-up period of six months starting from the end of the issuance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the third quarter, driven by increased wafer sales and a favorable product mix, indicating a strong industry demand and operational efficiency [5][4][11]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 17.162 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.517 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.1% year-on-year growth [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 25.5%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. Capacity and Utilization - The monthly production capacity has expanded to over 1,022,750 8-inch equivalent wafers, up from 991,250 in the previous quarter [9][2]. - The capacity utilization rate reached a record high of 95.8%, increasing from 92.5% in the second quarter [4][11]. Sales and Market Segmentation - The company sold 2,499,465 wafers in the third quarter, marking a 4.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 17.8% increase year-on-year [11]. - The revenue from industrial and automotive sectors increased to 11.9% of total sales, while consumer electronics accounted for 43.4% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable to slightly increasing revenue for the fourth quarter, with a projected gross margin between 18% and 20% [11]. - The total revenue for the year is expected to exceed 9 billion USD [8].

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 314 million yuan, up 19.58% year-on-year; in Q3 2025, net profit was 92 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 252.87% [2] Strategies for Profitability Improvement - Focus on high-value customers and orders, optimizing sales structure by managing loss-making orders and increasing high-value orders [3] - Strengthen the sales team by expanding and optimizing the overseas sales force, implementing performance evaluation mechanisms [3] - Enhance cost management through standardized cost management practices to reduce unit product costs [4] - Improve order delivery and customer service by enhancing internal communication and optimizing production scheduling [4] Raw Material Cost Management - The company is facing rising raw material costs, particularly for copper and other key materials, which have seen significant price increases since June 2024 [5] - Measures to mitigate cost pressures include dynamic monitoring of costs, improving material utilization, and implementing price adjustment strategies [6] Capacity Utilization and Expansion Plans - Current overall capacity utilization is approximately 85% [7] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in various plants to meet market demand, including the construction of a new HDI factory [7] Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary, San De Guan, has turned profitable in Q3 2025, despite challenges in the flexible printed circuit board (FPC) sector [8] Future Growth Drivers - Anticipated growth in 2026 will be driven by increased demand in mobile, server, and communication sectors, with a focus on high-layer boards and IC substrates [9][10] - The company plans to enhance its competitive advantages in product quality, cost control, and pricing strategies while developing new key customers [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 715 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 71.2% to 167 million yuan, primarily due to asset disposal gains [1][2] - The gross margin improved to 31.8% in Q3 2025, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts [2] - The company plans to establish a new project in Vietnam with an investment of 180 million yuan, expected to start construction by March 31, 2026, which will enhance production capacity and meet long-term order demands [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.886 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 17.3% to 309 million yuan [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025 was 102 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [1] Margin and Cost Analysis - The company’s non-recurring net profit margin was 14.3% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising due to employee salary adjustments [2] Future Outlook - The company expects stable growth in cotton sock orders and sufficient production capacity, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 2.613 billion, 2.898 billion, and 3.197 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 384 million, 368 million, and 414 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 10.9, and 9.7 [4]

Core Insights - Geely Galaxy brand has achieved significant sales growth, reaching 127,476 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 101% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, marking a historical high [2] - The brand has sold a cumulative total of 1,002,000 units in the first ten months of the year, achieving its annual sales target ahead of schedule and becoming the fastest electric vehicle brand to reach this milestone [2] - Geely is repurposing the former SAIC-GM North Factory in Shenyang to increase production capacity for the Galaxy models, with an investment of approximately 890 million yuan [1][6] Production Capacity and Strategy - The production capacity for Galaxy models is currently under pressure due to rapid sales growth, with existing facilities in various locations having a combined annual capacity of nearly 1 million units [6] - Geely has decided not to build new factories or expand existing ones, focusing instead on optimizing existing production capacity and forming strategic partnerships [7] - The company is actively recruiting for various departments at the Shenyang facility to support the production ramp-up [1] Product Development - The Galaxy product lineup is continuously expanding, with the recent global launch of the new generation Galaxy Xingyao 6, available in seven variants priced between 68,800 to 99,800 yuan [3] - Several models under the Galaxy brand, such as the Galaxy E5 and Galaxy M9, have become bestsellers, contributing to the brand's strong market presence [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto is actively exploring various capacity expansion solutions due to the surge in sales of the Galaxy model, indicating a need for increased production capacity [1] Group 1: Production Capacity - Geely Auto is not planning to build new factories or expand existing ones, but is instead focusing on utilizing remaining capacities across different locations [1] - There are reports that the former SAIC-GM Beisheng factory in Shenyang is undergoing renovation to supplement the production capacity for the Galaxy model [1] - A source close to Geely mentioned that communication regarding capacity issues has been ongoing, highlighting the current tight production capacity for the Galaxy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to increase its investment in Jiangsu Aike Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai Minai Semiconductor Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 90 million yuan, enhancing its control over the integrated circuit testing business [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The company will invest 90 million yuan to subscribe for an additional registered capital of 37.1526 million yuan in Aike Integrated, with the remaining amount recorded as capital reserve [1] - After the capital increase, Aike Integrated's registered capital will rise from 10 million yuan to 47.1526 million yuan, with Shanghai Minai holding 78.79% of the shares [1] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - Aike Integrated is primarily engaged in integrated circuit testing, aligning with the main business of Shanghai Minai [1] - Aike Integrated is the only operating entity for integrated circuit testing under Jiangsu Aike, which is transitioning its main business focus to asset management and other non-testing operations [1] - The capital increase and control over Aike Integrated will allow the company to further concentrate on its testing business and create synergies [1]

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 5.593 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 314 million, up 19.58% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 92 million, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 252.87% [3] Profitability Improvement Measures - The company is focusing on high-value customers and orders, optimizing the sales structure by eliminating loss-making orders and reducing low-margin orders [4] - Strengthening the sales team by expanding the overseas sales force and implementing a performance evaluation system that includes high-value customer development [5] - Enhancing cost management through standardized cost management practices to lower unit product costs [5] - Improving order delivery and customer service levels by optimizing internal communication and production scheduling [5] - Innovating product offerings to meet high-value customer demands, particularly in high-frequency and high-reliability PCB products [5] - Accelerating capacity expansion to meet future market demands, including upgrades at existing plants and new factory constructions [5] Raw Material Cost Management - The company is facing rising raw material costs, particularly for copper and other key materials, which are closely linked to commodity prices [6][7] - Measures to mitigate cost pressures include dynamic monitoring of costs, improving material utilization, and implementing price adjustments based on market conditions [7] Capacity Utilization and Expansion - The current overall capacity utilization rate is approximately 85% [8] - The company is actively optimizing and expanding its capacity, particularly in its Zhuhai plants and new facilities in Thailand [8] Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary, San De Guan, has turned profitable in Q3 2025, despite ongoing challenges in the flexible printed circuit board (FPC) sector [9][10] - The FPC industry is expected to see a moderate growth of 3.6% in 2025, driven by improving market demand [9] Future Growth Drivers - The company anticipates growth in 2026 driven by increased demand in mobile, server, and communication sectors, with a focus on high-layer PCBs and IC substrates [10] - Plans to enhance product quality, cost control, and pricing strategies while developing new key customers in high-value sectors [10]