新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 受情绪及消息扰动，工业硅多晶硅盘面大幅上涨 工业硅： 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13000-13200（350）元/吨。SMM报道，当日有机硅单体企业实控人会议 价格方面相关信息，据SMM了解，有机硅DMC指导价格在13000-13200元/吨，较联合挺价前（即11月12日），近一 周累计涨幅约1700-2000元/吨。其他下游产品价格同步跟涨，其中107胶价格在13700-14000元/吨、生胶价格在14000 元/吨、硅油在14700元/吨，近一周累计涨幅约1700-2200元/吨。 策略 现货价格持稳，部分价格上调，西南减产后，供需格局或好转，总库存有所降低，当天盘面大幅上涨，主要受有 机硅多晶硅上涨及情绪扰动影响。目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注后续是 否有相关产能退出政策，目前工业硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 单边：短期区间操作，枯水期合约可逢低做多 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 2025-11-19，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8985元/吨，最后收于9390元/吨，较前一日 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 消费表现一般，多晶硅工业硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-17，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9025元/吨，最后收于9080元/吨，较前一日结算变化（60） 元/吨，变化（0.67）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓251549手，2025-11-17仓单总数为44022手，较前一日变化-1323 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计11月13日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.6万吨，较上周减少0.6万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.7万吨，较 上周持平，社会交割仓库41.9万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分），较上周减少0.6万吨。（（不含内蒙、宁夏、甘 肃等地）。本周统计地区的社会库存变化，以天津及广州地区成交货物出库较为活跃，其他地区仓库库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the overall inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, there may be room for the price to rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, so the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9150 yuan/ton and closed at 9145 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 267,758 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on November 13 was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 127,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [1]. - **Consumption Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising this week, with the current quotation range up about 1100 yuan/ton from the average price last week. Shandong monomer enterprises quoted 12,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises stopped quoting [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 54,195 yuan/ton, a 3.69% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 144,026 lots (140,617 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 277,916 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.09% month - on - month increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW, a 5.14% month - on - month increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a - 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12GW, a - 2.45% month - on - month change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [6][7]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve due to the slight increase in spot prices and production cuts during the dry season in the southwest. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. With the expected increase in silicon - coal prices, there is some support for industrial silicon. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [2][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is still significant inventory pressure. The downstream production schedule may weaken, and consumer support is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On November 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,230 yuan/ton and closed at 9,290 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,503 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, a change of 75 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase), and 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, with no change. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and others increased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [2]. - In Yunnan, the dry season has arrived. Most silicon enterprises in production stopped production at the end of October, and a few stopped in early November. Currently, there are only over 20 silicon furnaces in production in the entire Yunnan region, and the remaining enterprises are of the integrated or long - order delivery types [2]. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton with no change. Yunneng Silicon Materials' Qujing Branch completed a key technological transformation project, which improved the tank utilization rate to 100% and laid a foundation for process optimization and cost control [3]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, buy on dips - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [4] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile trend, opening at 53,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,720 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 125,974 lots (125,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 218,786 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg, with no change. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of - 0.77%), and silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.45%). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,000 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.30%), and silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.55%) [5][6]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase compared to September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [6]. - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, with no change [6]. - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W, with no change [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W, with no change [7]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the southwest region is reducing production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With its low valuation, there may be upward space if there is policy support [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure. Although production has started to decline recently and may decrease further in November, downstream production schedules may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was volatile. The main contract 2601 opened at 8900 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.06%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 232,849 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,195 lots, an increase of 372 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. In November, the supply change mainly lies in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, with the combined production in these two regions expected to decline by more than 50%, and the national total supply is expected to drop below 400,000 tons (a 12% decline) [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. Affected by a sharp price increase of a Shandong monomer factory last week, some other monomer factories slightly increased their quotes by 100 - 300 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price remained at a low level [2]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. For dry - season contracts, one can go long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 53,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 125,062 lots (128,876 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 175,236 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (a 1.16% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (a 2.49% month - on - month increase). The weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons (a 4.41% month - on - month decrease), and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW (a 3.32% month - on - month decrease) [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will significantly decline [5]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve as the spot price center moves up slightly, with increased northwest开工 in the near term and southwest production cuts starting at the end of October. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range, and for the dry - season contracts, it's advisable to go long at low prices [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although the production has started to decrease recently and is expected to decline in November, the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it's suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. In the short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9145 yuan/ton and closed at 9155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 227,764 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,410 lots, an increase of 72 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton; 99 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 124,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption**: According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Under the background of gradually released supply - side pressure and insufficient demand - side support, the game between upstream and downstream markets will intensify, and the domestic silicone DMC price will still be under pressure and decline slightly [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,900 yuan/ton and closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 126,052 lots (118,430 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 223,914 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [4]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%; the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and it is expected to decline in November due to significant production cuts in the southwest region [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece); the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece; the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece [5]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W; PERC210mm components were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W; N - type 182mm components were 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W; N - type 210mm components were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are average, with the spot price remaining stable. The inventory increased significantly in October due to increased production in the Northwest and non - dry season in the Southwest. The market is expected to improve after the Southwest starts to cut production at the end of October. If there are relevant policies, the industrial silicon futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production may also weaken. Mid - to long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8960 yuan/ton and closed at 8955 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 211,670 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,044, down 141 from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton, and the domestic market transaction price was in the range of 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly moving down [1] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. For contracts during the dry season, long positions can be taken at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated, opening at 54,325 yuan/ton and closing at 54,355 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 114,932 lots, and the trading volume was 208,200 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 258,000 tons, up 1.98% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW, up 6.70% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, down 4.84% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, up 2.65% month - on - month [3] - The price of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, but the price of 210R silicon wafers showed signs of weakness [3][4] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to long - term, long positions can be laid out at low prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are average, with the futures market maintaining a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the supply - demand situation may improve. In the long - term, if there are policy incentives, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the current supply - demand fundamentals are average with high inventory pressure. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips as policies are expected to be introduced [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,950 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 201,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,185 lots, a change of -142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. The silicon price in Tianjin increased slightly, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained unchanged [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market transaction price range was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the mainstream transaction concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. The market average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the center of the transaction price moved down slightly [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable. In October, the start - up in the Northwest increased, and the Southwest has not entered the dry season and has not stopped production, resulting in a large increase in inventory. Currently, the fundamentals are average, and the futures market maintains a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the Southwest will start to reduce production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is advisable to go long on the dry - season contracts on dips. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 52,510 yuan/ton and closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a change of 3.82% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,877 lots (81,555 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 238,898 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (a change of 1.98% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a change of 6.70% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500.00 tons (a change of -4.84% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a change of 2.65% month - on - month) [4]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with high overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The sharp rise in the futures market on that day was mainly affected by downstream acceptance of warehouse receipts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. The 11 main contract fluctuates between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.36 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.04 yuan/piece). The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the output in November is expected to decline [6]. - For battery cells, the prices of high - efficiency PERC182, PERC210, TopconM10, Topcon G12, Topcon210RN, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells remained stable [6]. - For components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm, PERC210mm, N - type 182mm, and N - type 210mm remained unchanged [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are generally weak with high supply and consumption - side pressure. For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are weak but may improve with potential policy support. For polysilicon, the market is affected by policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term while being suitable for long - term low - position long - order layouts [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8515 yuan/ton and closed at 8485 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 96,554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,738, a decrease of 113 from the previous day. Spot prices were stable, but due to increased northwest production and no southwest reduction in October, short - term inventory increased significantly, putting pressure on the fundamentals [1]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: Organic silicon DMC quotes were 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply - side, domestic DMC prices were expected to rise slightly last week, but there was a possibility of weakening this week depending on new orders and downstream demand [2]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices are stable, and silicon factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The fundamentals are currently weak, but southwest production will decrease at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended for short - term range operations, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 50,700 yuan/ton and closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The main contract held 49,016 lots, and 100,492 lots were traded. Spot prices were stable. Manufacturer and silicon wafer inventories increased, with polysilicon inventory at 25.30 (a 5.33% month - on - month increase) and silicon wafer inventory at 17.31GW (a 3.16% month - on - month increase). Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (no change), and silicon wafer production was 14.35GW (an 11.85% month - on - month increase) [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained stable. Polysilicon production is expected to increase in October and decrease in November in the southwest region [6]. - **Strategy**: Consumption - side support is weak, with large inventory pressure and high supply in October. The November warehouse receipts cancellation will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term. For the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term range operations are recommended, with the November main contract oscillating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the December contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].