Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 8800 - 9400, and polysilicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with the range of 51000 - 56000 [6]. - Next week, the demand side of industrial silicon remains weak, although some sub - sectors have stable demand, it's difficult to change the overall pattern and restrains price increase. The supply contraction of polysilicon will continue next week, providing some bottom support for prices, but the demand side is also weak and hard to drive price increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: As of November 20, industrial silicon rose 0.61% this week, and polysilicon fell 2.95%. The industrial silicon futures market first rose and then fell. Polysilicon first rose slightly and then declined [6]. - **Market Outlook for Industrial Silicon**: Supply may further decrease due to the dry season. Organic silicon's actual procurement demand for industrial silicon has decreased, and polysilicon enterprises mainly purchase industrial silicon for rigid needs. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry is growing steadily but cannot make up for the weakness in other fields [6]. - **Market Outlook for Polysilicon**: The supply contraction will continue. The demand from the photovoltaic industry shows a differentiated pattern of "weak terminal, stable middle". The overall demand is weak [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was 9075 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price was 52450 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot price increased, and the basis increased. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis was 475 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 150 yuan/kg [19][26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 78,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.06% [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: During November 13 - 20, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest region increased, while that in the northwest remained stable. The cost of industrial silicon increased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 43,297 lots, a decrease of 2369 lots from the previous period [39]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly production of organic silicon was 47,500 tons (0% increase), and the weekly operating rate was 72.18% (0% increase). The cost, spot price, and profit of organic silicon increased, and the production is expected to remain unchanged [46][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 20, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the inventory was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3100 tons from the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken [60]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: As of November 20, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.44 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece from the previous week, and the battery cell price was 0.29 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.00 yuan/watt from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be negative [64]. - **Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: As of November 20, the polysilicon profit was 11,880 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40,888 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 265,700 tons [71].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the current supply - demand situation of new energy metals is favorable. Lithium carbonate leads the rise in new energy metals due to accelerated inventory reduction, and short - long opportunities in lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long run, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2]. - The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts. The price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes after the PV Association refutes the rumors. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are stable at 9,500 yuan/ton and 9,750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 461,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. Among them, the market inventory is 185,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the factory inventory is 277,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [7]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production is 3.469 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% [7]. - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [7]. - The newly installed PV capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest leads to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most silicon plants will enter the shutdown and maintenance stage. The supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly without obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in November. The organic silicon DMC market operates weakly and stably, and the terminal demand is still weak. The demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. The clearance of warehouse receipts of industrial silicon supports the price [7]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate due to the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season and the continuous clearance of warehouse receipts, as well as the continuous fluctuation of coal prices in the short term [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: After the PV Association refutes the false rumors, the price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average成交 price is 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,850 lots, unchanged from the previous value [8]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume of polysilicon is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [8]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic PV capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [8]. - In November, the production schedule of domestic component enterprises varies. The production schedule of leading enterprises increases slightly, while most other enterprises reduce production to clear inventory. The overall production schedule in November is expected to be less than 44.5GW [8]. - **Main Logic**: The PV Association refutes the rumors and promotes industry self - discipline. The supply of polysilicon will shrink in November due to the dry season, and the production is expected to drop below 120,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November, and the downstream demand is starting to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of polysilicon is still under pressure, but the production will decrease during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the price of polysilicon, but the current inventory pressure is still large, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.05% to 86,580 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 11,610 lots to 1,004,426 lots [11]. - On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 81,100 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 984 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 lots to 28,287 lots [11]. - Australian lithium miner Liontown announced a cooperation with Metalshub to sell the spot of Kathleen Valley spodumene concentrate to global customers through its digital platform. The first auction will be held on November 19, 2025, with the target of 10,000 tons of spodumene concentrate, and a series of auction activities are planned to be launched in 2026 and later [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand are both strong, and inventory reduction is expected to continue from November to December. However, the supply expectation is uncertain, which may cause large price fluctuations. On the supply side, the monthly production of lithium carbonate continues to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts the supply of lithium salt. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand and the performance in the off - season of the first quarter of next year. The optimistic expectation of energy storage consumption will generate speculative demand when the price falls, raising the price center. The social inventory continues to be reduced, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized recently, but further decline should be vigilant. In the short - to - medium term, the resumption of production of Xianxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long run, with the optimistic demand, a bullish approach is recommended, and long positions can be appropriately bought after a pull - back [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) of CITIC Futures all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 0.89% on the day, 3.80% in the past 5 days, 9.13% in the past month, and 4.22% since the beginning of the year [53][54].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve due to the slight increase in spot prices and production cuts during the dry season in the southwest. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. With the expected increase in silicon - coal prices, there is some support for industrial silicon. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [2][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is still significant inventory pressure. The downstream production schedule may weaken, and consumer support is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On November 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,230 yuan/ton and closed at 9,290 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,503 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, a change of 75 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase), and 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, with no change. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and others increased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [2]. - In Yunnan, the dry season has arrived. Most silicon enterprises in production stopped production at the end of October, and a few stopped in early November. Currently, there are only over 20 silicon furnaces in production in the entire Yunnan region, and the remaining enterprises are of the integrated or long - order delivery types [2]. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton with no change. Yunneng Silicon Materials' Qujing Branch completed a key technological transformation project, which improved the tank utilization rate to 100% and laid a foundation for process optimization and cost control [3]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, buy on dips - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [4] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile trend, opening at 53,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,720 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 125,974 lots (125,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 218,786 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg, with no change. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of - 0.77%), and silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.45%). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,000 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.30%), and silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.55%) [5][6]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase compared to September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [6]. - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, with no change [6]. - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W, with no change [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W, with no change [7]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today, industrial silicon has risen, mainly due to the news of production cuts in the dry season. It is recommended to strategically place long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,705 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the position of the main contract is 76,195 lots, down 20,359 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -38,491 lots, down 1,652 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 48,371 lots, down 367 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon is -370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon is -370 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 645 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.85 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.1 US dollars; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.36%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the Silicon Industry Branch, there are 11 polysilicon enterprises in production this week. Based on the production plans of polysilicon enterprises in the fourth quarter, some production capacities in the southwest region are expected to gradually undergo maintenance and production cuts after entering the dry season in November. It is expected that October will be the peak production month of the year, and production will gradually decline from November to December. It is estimated that the annual domestic polysilicon production in 2025 will be about 1.34 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon in the market has mainly declined this week. Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, with rising production costs for manufacturers and accelerated implementation of production cut plans. Some enterprises that have exhausted their raw materials have chosen to stop production. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material reserves and are observing the market, ready to start production at any time. Currently, some factories in Xinjiang are actively engaged in production, and some are conducting transactions with futures - cash merchants, locking in profits in advance through forward contracts. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors. For organic silicon, the inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit of organic silicon has slightly rebounded but is still in the loss range. The comprehensive operating rate has decreased month - on - month and is lower than the historical average, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, the inventory is as high as 275,000 tons, higher than the historical average. Silicon wafers and solar cells are in a loss state, and only components are profitable. For aluminum alloy, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, the price has remained flat, the operating situation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand is average, and the pull on industrial silicon is limited. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still negative. The industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure [2]