双登股份 20260108 摘要 国内 AIDC 投资建设边际回暖，备电赛道供需紧平衡，铅酸电池产能受 限，IDC 招标回暖有望加速备电市场进入上行通道，需重视国产链投资 机会。 双登股份主营通信基站和数据中心备用电源，占比对半开。数据中心备 电全球仍以铅酸为主，占比超 80%，但海外市场锂电池渗透加速，高端 算力芯片对放电倍率要求高，锂电池优势明显。 双登股份数据中心铅酸备电 2026 年出货量预计 3.5-4GWh，同比增长， 2027 年预计保持 30%-50%增长，中期有望占据 50%市场份额，贡献 约 4 亿利润。 海外锂电池备电市场由日韩厂商主导，采用三元锂电池方案，安全性较 差。中国铁锂方案在安全性和成本上具备优势，有望替代日韩三元电池， 拓展海外市场。 双登股份与阿里、字节跳动、万国等客户合作紧密，开发定制化锂电备 电产品，并与维谛、施耐德、伊顿等厂商建立合作，计划在马来西亚建 设 2GWh 高倍率产能。 在当前环境下，应如何看待备电赛道的发展前景？ 备电赛道在当前环境下需要重视，因为它属于潜在有通胀逻辑的品种。自 2025 年以来，该领域一直处于供需紧平衡状态，下游需求发生大的边际变化 时可 ...

先导智能 20260106 摘要 先导智能目前的发展状况及未来预期如何？ 锂电设备行业受益于产能利用率提升和市场份额扩大，预计 2025 年迎 来显著增长，2026 年需求持续上行，储能市场爆发和固态电池技术发 展是关键驱动力，2026 年的扩产高点或将超过 2022 年。 固态电池技术发展类似于 2023 年的机器人产业，预计 2025-2026 年 间将频繁出现工艺迭代和技术催化，海外大厂和国内头部公司加速推进 新技术，对估值及未来持续性影响更具信心。 先导智能在固态电池新增订单方面表现突出，上半年新增订单约 5 亿元， 预计全年超过 10 亿元，远超同行，在液态到固态转型过程中表现出强 者恒强的趋势，业绩有望持续向好。 先导智能订单景气度逐步改善，盈利拐点显现，预计 2025 年订单恢复 至 250 亿左右，同比增长 40%-50%，明年预计达到 300-350 亿，超 过上一轮高位，去年完成 17-18 亿利润目标，今年业绩大概率非常好。 先导智能在液态锂电设备领域占据核心设备 60%以上市占率，在固态领 域作为整线商具备明显优势，市场份额有望进一步扩大，预计能维持 20%以上收入增长，对应动态市盈率 ...

一、全球储能电池出货量分析与预测 近期，起点研究院SPIR发布了《2026全球储能行业白皮书》报告。该报告数据显示， 2024年全球储能电池出货量为358Gwh，2025年预计 储能电池出货量637GWh，同比增长77.93%。到2030年储能电池出货量将达到2380Gwh，储能需求增长的主要原因是： ①发电侧：全球能源结构转型，光伏、风电等绿色新能源电力装机量占比上升，带动储能电池需求增长确定性高。 ②电网侧：电网侧储能的需求也将快速增长，主要源于电力系统对稳定性和灵活性的日益增长的要求，特别是在高比例风电和光伏等可再生能 源大规模接入的背景下。电网侧储能能有效平衡电力供需波动，通过快速充放电参与电网调频、调峰，提升系统稳定性。 资料来源：起点研究院 SPIR 二、2025年全球储能电池竞争格局 起点研究院SPIR数据显示，2025年，储能电芯行业集中度CR6达50%左右，呈现高度集中的"一超多强 +黑马突围"双轨竞争格局。其中，宁 德时代占据第一梯队，依然绝对领先；楚能新能源，4年时间强势进入前五；亿纬锂能、海辰储能、中创新航、瑞浦兰钧继续位居行业前六。 图表 2 ： 2025年 全球储能电芯出货排名 资 ...

"十五五"开局之年，储能行业的发展将出现哪些新的趋势和变化？ 为此，《中国经营报》记者对中国 化学与物理电源行业协会储能应用分会（CESA）副秘书长冯思遥进行了专访。 收益模式多元化、市场化 转自：中国经营报 专访中国化学与物理电源行业协会储能应用分会（CESA）副秘书长冯思遥 文/张英英吴可仲 2025年，随着"136号文"——《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》的 落地实施，储能行业开启了以市场化价值创造为核心的全新发展阶段。新型储能装机规模持续攀升，应 用场景不断拓宽，AIDC（人工智能数据中心）储能异军突起，成为新增长引擎，收益模式也愈加清 晰，走向多元化、市场化。 在政策引导、技术创新与市场需求的驱动下，储能作为新能源消纳核心支撑、电力系统调节枢纽的价值 愈发凸显。但与此同时，储能行业发展也面临贸易壁垒、"内卷式"竞争、市场机制待完善等挑战和问 题。 《中国经营报》：过去一年，国内储能行业发展态势如何？ 出现了哪些重要变化？ 冯思遥：过去一年，国内新型储能总体呈现"规模继续增长、应用加速分化、价格深度调整、竞争从拼 规模转向拼交付与安全"的态势。 一是，规模维持高位增长，区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant scrutiny regarding its IPO application, particularly concerning its performance volatility, customer stability, and the necessity and feasibility of its fundraising projects [3][18]. Group 1: Performance Volatility - The company's revenue from battery power control systems showed a V-shaped curve from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with figures of 389 million, 472 million, 401 million, and 372 million respectively, indicating a dramatic fluctuation [4][19]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue surged by 123.78% year-on-year, following a decline of 15.13% the previous year, attributed to shifts in downstream market demand [4][19]. - The company's performance diverged from industry peers, achieving a 6.73% growth in 2024 while competitors faced an average decline of 17.46% [4][19]. Group 2: Customer Base Composition - Approximately 90% of the company's customers are small to medium-sized, with those generating less than 1 million in sales consistently making up this percentage [5][20]. - In the first half of 2025, 520 small customers contributed only 15.93% of total revenue, contrasting with larger competitors whose top five customers account for over 25% of their revenue [5][20]. - The proportion of revenue from the top five customers decreased from 43.86% in 2022 to 30.69% in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about customer relationship stability [5][20]. Group 3: Quality Issues and Customer Retention - The company faced a return issue with BYD due to quality problems with IGBT products, resulting in a refund of 6.82 million [6][21]. - Following this incident, BYD's procurement from the company decreased significantly, dropping from 90.30 million in 2022 (10.62% of total revenue) to 38.07 million in 2024 (5.19%) [6][21]. Group 4: Fundraising and Production Capacity - The company plans to raise 500 million, with 294 million allocated for enhancing battery and power control system capacity, 144 million for a research center, and 62 million for working capital [13][28]. - The transition to a fully self-produced model raises questions about the feasibility of this shift, as the average processing costs of outsourced production are comparable to in-house production [13][28]. - Concerns about capacity utilization arise, as projected sales for 2024 are only 964,400 units, while the expected capacity by 2030 is 5,752,800 units, indicating potential overcapacity [13][28]. Group 5: Research and Development Challenges - The company aims to hire 110 new R&D personnel, which would increase the workforce by 55.56%, to support 14 research projects in advanced fields [14][29]. - The current R&D efficiency is questioned, as there are 198 personnel working on 18 projects, averaging 11 people per project, while the new projects plan to allocate only 8 people each [14][30].

专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 责任编辑：李思阳 针对"电力回归商品属性"与"行政定价主导"的矛盾问题，刘敦楠澄清了电力商品的特殊性，指出其无法 等同于一般商品，核心源于两大属性：一是物理属性，电力需实时平衡，受电力系统物理约束，安全稳 定是首要前提；二是社会责任属性，我国发电与电网资源归国家所有，而非私人资本掌控，安全保供、 民生保障是第一原则，这与国外电力市场"私有化、重盈利、轻责任"的模式有本质区别。 他强调，所谓"行政定价"更应理解为对社会责任的保障，由政府或公共机构按成本核定价格，确保基础 供电。在满足安全保供的前提下，针对供大于求的时段，可通过市场机制优化效率，形成"社会责任为 先、市场效率为辅"的辨证关系。 刘敦楠赞同储能行业的发展潜力，同时指出当前我国储能主要依赖现货市场价差获取收入，而欧美市场 中灵活性资源的收入来源更为多元。利好的是，国家正制定将储能与煤电、抽蓄一视同仁的容量价格机 制，将为储能发展提供基础保障。 "136号文出来之后，新能源全面入市，电能量市场的价格将会回归到一个更加合理的价格或者大家普遍 预期电容量是的价格会有所走低。"腾出的电价空间可用于 ...

变化一：各省电力现货峰谷价差走势 电力现货市场峰谷价差是比招标数据更为前瞻的景气度跟踪指标，2026年应重点关注。根据394号文要 求，截至2025年底，全国绝大部分省份电力现货市场已进入长周期/连续结算试运行。各省现货峰谷价 差直接反映当地新能源消纳情况与系统调节需求，未来电力现货市场将成为指挥棒，短期应优先建设储 能还是光伏，将由市场供需与价格机制决定。 智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，展望2026年，储能行业短期景气度有望延续，长期成长空间 依然广阔，建议重点关注以下五大变化：各省电力现货峰谷价差的走势、各省储能容量补偿机制的推进 情况、美国AIDC配储项目的落地进展、欧洲大储机制创新与项目落地以及上游价格与储能需求的反身 性影响。当前影响行业发展的积极因素多于潜在风险，对2026年全球储能行业的增长保持乐观。 五矿证券主要观点如下： 变化四：欧洲大储机制创新和项目落地 欧洲储能政策工具与市场机制创新，有望推动欧洲超越美国成为海外储能第一大增量市场，2026年应重 点关注。意大利通过MACSE容量采购机制为独立储能电站引入长期容量合同保障，英国通过保底收益 机制给予长时储能投资激励。 变化五：上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the global energy storage industry in 2026, expecting a significant growth in installed capacity and battery shipments [49]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry is projected to see a new installed capacity of 388 GWh in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 45%. Battery shipments are expected to reach 825 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 39% [49][51][52]. - The report identifies five key changes to monitor in the energy storage sector for 2026, which include the dynamics of electricity spot market price differences, the progress of capacity compensation mechanisms, developments in AIDC projects in the U.S., innovations in large storage mechanisms in Europe, and the reciprocal impact of upstream prices on storage demand [26][30][38][42][46]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Electricity Spot Market Price Differences - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the price differences in electricity spot markets across provinces, as these will reflect local renewable energy consumption and system adjustment needs. The market will dictate whether to prioritize energy storage or photovoltaic construction based on supply and demand dynamics [26][28][30]. Section 2: Capacity Compensation Mechanisms - Capacity compensation is expected to become a significant revenue source for independent energy storage stations, second only to spot market income. While national policies are still in development, some provinces have begun pilot programs, and broader implementation is anticipated in the next two years [30][33][37]. Section 3: AIDC Projects in the U.S. - The report highlights the potential for AIDC projects to drive unexpected growth in the U.S. energy storage market. The demand for storage is expected to increase significantly due to the new power supply architecture that incorporates storage as a standard feature [38][39]. Section 4: Innovations in European Storage Mechanisms - Europe is poised to become the largest incremental market for energy storage outside of China, driven by innovative policies and market mechanisms. Countries like Italy and the UK are implementing measures to support long-term contracts and investment incentives for energy storage [42][44]. Section 5: Upstream Prices and Storage Demand - The report discusses the interdependence between lithium carbonate prices and the economic viability of energy storage. It notes that while the industry has crossed an economic threshold, many independent storage projects still have fragile revenue models [46][47].

Group 1 - The A-share energy storage sector index has recently experienced a decline, but industry experts remain optimistic about the sector's unexpected growth due to increased demand and large-scale project implementations [1] - The demand for energy storage is shifting from the power generation side to the grid side, driven by the ongoing expansion of renewable energy installations and the construction of new power systems in China [1] - The rapid growth of artificial intelligence data centers and the advancement of independent renewable energy power systems for green hydrogen and ammonia projects are expected to further expand domestic and international energy storage applications [1] Group 2 - The energy storage sector has seen a surge in orders, particularly for grid-side storage, as companies like Haibo Technology and CATL announce significant procurement agreements and production expansions [2] - The price increases of raw materials like lithium carbonate and supply chain disruptions due to equipment failures have heightened market attention on the energy storage industry [2] - The introduction of policy documents such as the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of Renewable Energy Grid Pricing" has decoupled energy storage from renewable energy construction, allowing it to become an independent market investment entity [3] Group 3 - The rapid expansion of overseas markets, particularly in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, is driving new demand for energy storage solutions [4] - Strategic partnerships, such as that between Envision Group and Statera Energy for a major storage project in the UK, highlight the growing international collaboration in the energy storage sector [4] - New applications, including high-power charging and data center energy management, are expected to significantly increase energy storage demand [4] Group 4 - Analysts predict a 40% year-on-year growth in global energy storage demand by 2026, driven by the increasing need for renewable energy integration in the U.S. [5] - The domestic energy storage market is approaching an economic inflection point, with expectations of 300 GWh of new installations next year, supported by market-driven pricing and capacity incentives [5] - The current market dynamics indicate that energy storage does not face theoretical oversupply; rather, the challenge lies in affordability and accessibility for users [6] Group 5 - Government initiatives to expand public energy storage infrastructure and enhance market competition are crucial for achieving large-scale development in the energy storage sector [6] - Recent policy announcements from national authorities have set higher renewable energy installation targets, reinforcing the role of energy storage as a key component for energy consumption [6] - The energy storage industry is positioned to meet global supply demands, with competitive advantages in providing low-cost green electricity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The industry remains optimistic about the unexpected growth of the energy storage sector despite recent declines in the A-share storage index, driven by increasing demand and large-scale project implementations [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The energy storage industry is expected to benefit from China's continued expansion of renewable energy installations and the construction of new power systems during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The shift in storage demand from the power generation side to the grid side is becoming more pronounced, indicating a trend towards larger projects [1][3] - The introduction of the "136 Document" has decoupled energy storage from renewable energy construction, allowing it to become an independent market investment entity [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Companies like Haibo Technology and CATL are experiencing a surge in orders, with Haibo Technology planning to purchase at least 200 GWh of battery cells from CATL between 2026 and 2028 [2] - CATL has announced significant expansions across multiple bases, with the Jining base alone expected to add over 100 GWh of storage capacity by 2026 [2] - The recent equipment failure at Shandong Genyuan New Materials has created a supply variable, amplifying market attention on the energy storage supply chain [2] Group 3: Market Demand and New Applications - The rapid expansion of overseas markets, particularly in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, is driving up demand for energy storage solutions [4] - New applications such as data centers and high-energy-consuming factories are increasingly seeking direct connections to renewable energy sources, further supporting energy storage demand [5] - Analysts predict a 40% year-on-year growth in global energy storage demand by 2026, driven by the needs of artificial intelligence data centers and renewable energy integration [5] Group 4: Policy and Economic Factors - Recent government policies are setting higher renewable energy installation targets, with energy storage identified as a critical component for consumption [6] - The energy storage sector is expected to support significant investment demand in the economy, following the real estate sector [6] - The industry is poised for growth, with the potential for large-scale development contingent on government initiatives to enhance public storage infrastructure [5][6]