证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 电力设备 产业盈利复苏，技术持续升级——2026 年新能源车年度策略 新能源车：国内新能源车景气延续，全球电动化长期趋势不变。 1）中国：财政部将对 2026 年报废更新和置换更新新能源车分别补贴车价 的 12%和 8%。2025 年 1-11 月新能源重卡销量同增 178%。运营成本优 势日益凸显下，后续需求有望稳定提升。 2）欧洲：2025 年 1-10 月销量同增 30%，碳排放标准预计将促进中低端 电动车需求。看好后续电车需求持续放量。 3）美国：2025 年 1-11 月新能源车销量及渗透率同比下降 2%和 0.4pct。 换届后新能源车补贴存在一定不确定性。当前电动化率不足 10%，长期仍 有巨大发展空间。 根据乘联会数据，2025 年 1-11 月我国新能源车出口同比增长达 63%，我 国新能源汽车出口主要是欧洲、亚洲两大市场，而美洲市场也在逐步崛起。 预计 2026 年全球/中国/欧洲/美国新能源车销量为 2475/1515/466/162 万 辆，同比+18%/15%/20%/5%，对应全球动力电池需求量 ...

先导智能 20260106 摘要 先导智能目前的发展状况及未来预期如何？ 锂电设备行业受益于产能利用率提升和市场份额扩大，预计 2025 年迎 来显著增长，2026 年需求持续上行，储能市场爆发和固态电池技术发 展是关键驱动力，2026 年的扩产高点或将超过 2022 年。 固态电池技术发展类似于 2023 年的机器人产业，预计 2025-2026 年 间将频繁出现工艺迭代和技术催化，海外大厂和国内头部公司加速推进 新技术，对估值及未来持续性影响更具信心。 先导智能在固态电池新增订单方面表现突出，上半年新增订单约 5 亿元， 预计全年超过 10 亿元，远超同行，在液态到固态转型过程中表现出强 者恒强的趋势，业绩有望持续向好。 先导智能订单景气度逐步改善，盈利拐点显现，预计 2025 年订单恢复 至 250 亿左右，同比增长 40%-50%，明年预计达到 300-350 亿，超 过上一轮高位，去年完成 17-18 亿利润目标，今年业绩大概率非常好。 先导智能在液态锂电设备领域占据核心设备 60%以上市占率，在固态领 域作为整线商具备明显优势，市场份额有望进一步扩大，预计能维持 20%以上收入增长，对应动态市盈率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration has rapidly increased in the past few years, exceeding 50% in 2025. In 2025, the domestic market shifted to "anti - involution", and exports gradually became a new growth point [3][122]. - Considering the overseas market trade environment, trade protectionism in Europe and the United States is severe, while countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East have good development prospects. Regarding the development of the overseas new energy vehicle market itself, the development space of new energy vehicles in non - US regions is generally optimistic [3][122]. - In terms of the competition pattern, the market share of self - owned brands continues to expand. Enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and high supply stability will be the core beneficiaries [3][122]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The report shows the one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies, including the closing prices and one - week price change percentages of many vehicle manufacturers and power battery and material companies [12][15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Information on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports is presented through relevant charts [16][18][20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts show the monthly new additions of new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory [25][26]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: The monthly delivery volumes of many new energy vehicle companies such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented [29][30][35]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Charts show global new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV [40][41][43]. - **European Market**: Information on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France is presented [45][46][51]. - **North American Market**: Charts show North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV [59][60][62]. - **Other Regions**: Information on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand is presented [63][64][67]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Information on power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and costs of cell materials is presented. It also includes data on the operating rates and prices of various battery materials such as ternary materials, phosphoric acid iron lithium, and negative electrode materials [79][81][84]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - The daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented [100][101][102]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 Industry Dynamics: China - In 2026, the implementation details of the car trade - in subsidy were introduced. The subsidy method changed from fixed - amount subsidy to subsidy based on the proportion of the new car's selling price, with the subsidy cap remaining unchanged [107]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Automobile Industry", proposing two - stage development goals and six key tasks [109]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1 - 28, the new energy retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since this year increased by 18% year - on - year [110]. 3.3.2 Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's sales in December 2025 were 420,398 vehicles. In 2025, its annual sales of pure - electric vehicles exceeded Tesla's for the first time, ranking first globally [112]. - Geely Auto's sales in December 2025 were 236,817 vehicles. It announced a sales target of 3.45 million vehicles in 2026 [113][115]. - Chery Group's sales in December 2025 were 244,928 vehicles. In 2026, it aims to have a sales growth rate 10 - 20 percentage points higher than the industry average [116][118]. - Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume in December 2025 exceeded 50,000 vehicles, and its delivery target in 2026 is 550,000 vehicles. It also plans to launch four new models in 2026 [119]. 3.4 Industry Views - From December 1 - 28, 2025, the retail growth rate of the domestic passenger car market was - 17%, and the new energy growth rate was + 5%. As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative annual growth rates were 4% and 18% respectively. Self - owned brands such as BYD and Geely remained strong, and exports became a new growth point [120]. - The US new energy vehicle market declined in November 2025, while the European and other regions showed growth. Overall, the development space of new energy vehicles in non - US regions is optimistic [121]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has rapidly increased, and exports have become a new growth point. Non - US regions have good development prospects, and self - owned brands with certain advantages will be the core beneficiaries [122].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that electrification and intelligence in commercial vehicles are progressing simultaneously and at a faster pace than in the past, with the penetration rate expected to reach levels similar to passenger vehicles within five years [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The penetration rate of electric vehicles in passenger cars has reached 50% this year, while commercial vehicles are currently around 10%, with rapid growth anticipated [1] - The commercial vehicle sector is experiencing a significant transformation, particularly in the heavy-duty truck segment, which is expected to see explosive growth starting from 2023 [5][10] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards smart technologies such as intelligent driving, automatic charging, and battery swapping, which have already been implemented in passenger vehicles [1][8] Group 2: Company Positioning - The company, 京能新能源, positions itself as a "heavy-duty truck charging expert," focusing on the construction of charging infrastructure for new energy commercial vehicles [2][3] - 京能新能源 has been involved in the new energy sector since 2012 and has developed a comprehensive value chain from production to operation services [3][4] - The company has successfully implemented several projects, including a 2MW charging station in Henan Anyang and providing charging support for extreme cold testing in Inner Mongolia [5][6] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The future strategy of 京能新能源 centers on the heavy-duty truck sector, aiming to create products and solutions that leverage technological and model innovations [9] - The company is also exploring opportunities in international markets, assisting domestic enterprises in expanding overseas by addressing charging infrastructure needs [6][7] - The development of a supercharging network is seen as a significant opportunity, with potential compatibility for passenger vehicles, enhancing the overall charging infrastructure [9]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of charging stations in Europe is lagging behind the rapid growth of electric vehicles, leading to a potential "charging station crisis" by 2030 if current trends continue [3][4]. Group 1: Current Status of Charging Infrastructure - Norway leads Europe with over 27,000 public charging stations, equating to nearly 500 stations per 100,000 people, while the UK has only 89 stations per 100,000 people despite having a population 12 times larger [2]. - The overall car-to-charging station ratio in Europe is over 15:1, while China's ratio is approximately 3:1 [2]. - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) warns that by 2030, the EU will need about 8.8 million charging stations, but only 1.6 million are expected to be built at the current pace [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges in Charging Station Development - The slow progress in charging station construction is attributed to complex policies, outdated electrical grid infrastructure, and uneven investment distribution [5][6][7]. - Different countries and regions have their own regulations and approval processes, leading to lengthy delays in project implementation [5]. - Many areas face outdated electrical grids that cannot support the demand for charging stations, necessitating costly and time-consuming upgrades [6]. Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure Disparities - Investment in charging infrastructure is currently fragmented, lacking sufficient funding for large-scale development [7]. - Approximately 70% of public charging stations in the EU are concentrated in a few countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and France, leaving other regions underserved [7]. Group 4: Efforts to Address the Challenges - European governments are increasing policy support and funding for charging station construction, with initiatives like the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) [8]. - Germany plans to increase its number of charging stations fourteenfold within three years, while the UK aims to expand its network tenfold by 2030 [8]. - Technological advancements in fast charging and the exploration of wireless charging are being pursued to enhance user experience and reduce charging times [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing policy support and innovative business models are expected to attract more private investment, potentially accelerating the construction of charging stations [10]. - Industry experts believe that despite current challenges, the future of charging station development in Europe remains promising as various strategies are implemented [10].

Core Insights - The Shanghai International Auto Show has seen an average of over 100,000 visitors daily since its opening on April 23, highlighting the event's significance in the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Electric Vehicle Innovations - The rapid iteration and upgrade of power batteries are focused on achieving greater range and enhanced safety [3] - A new battery design features a dual-core structure, dividing the battery into two independent energy zones, which helps alleviate range anxiety [5][7] - Another company's battery has reduced length by half while increasing energy density, maintaining safety under extreme conditions such as gunfire and fire [7] - The introduction of the world's first "2400A" all-liquid-cooled megawatt supercharger has significantly reduced charging time from 1-2 hours to just 15 minutes, improving efficiency for electric heavy trucks [10] Group 2: Smart Technology Advancements - The automotive industry is witnessing significant advancements in smart technology, with the introduction of a domestically developed 5nm automotive-grade smart chip, enhancing vehicle intelligence [14] - The integration of AI models allows vehicles to function more like large mobile smart devices, capable of recognizing various dialects and accents, thus improving user interaction [17] - New concept cars are incorporating electronic rearview mirrors that offer low latency and a wider field of view, enhancing driving safety [19] Group 3: Safety and Practicality - The focus on safety remains paramount in the automotive industry, with companies shifting from promoting fully autonomous driving to emphasizing driver assistance systems [22]