美联储保尔森：正"谨慎地"对待12月的利率决定。 ...

新华财经北京11月20日电美债收益率周四（20日）小幅走高，因投资者等待迟来的就业报告，该报告料将提供对美国经济健康状况的关 键洞察。 当天盘前，除1个月和2个月期美债外，其余期限美债收益率整体小幅上行。截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率上涨1.2BP至 3.61%，10年期美债收益率上涨1.3P至4.146%，30年期美债收益率小幅上涨0.3BP至4.755%。 美国劳工统计局定于美国东部时间上午8点30分发布这份报告，这可能会影响美联储即将在12月做出的利率决定。美国劳工统计局此前 表示，因政府停摆阻碍了家庭调查数据的收集，该机构将不再公布备受关注的10月非农就业报告，而是将其与11月的报告合并。 德意志银行的分析师们周四在一份报告中表示："人们的注意力现在迅速转向推迟的美国9月份就业报告，该报告本应在近7周前公布。" 他们补充称："通常情况下，几个月前发布的数据不会产生太大影响，但12月的降息可能取决于疲弱的数据，这显然是有可能的，尤其 是在就业岗位盈亏平衡率像2025年那样低的情况下。" 此外，投资者还在消化美联储周三下午公布的10月份会议纪要。该会议纪要突显出，在就业市场放缓还是通胀对美国经济构成 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, according to President Trump [2] - The temporary funding bill signed on November 12 will fund most federal agencies at current levels until January 30, 2026, but does not resolve the Democratic demand for extended subsidies under the Affordable Care Act [3][4] - The shutdown has severely impacted the lives of American citizens, with significant disruptions in air travel and food assistance programs [6][8] Government Operations - The temporary funding bill passed with support from nearly all House Republicans and a few moderate Democrats, but it did not address the core Democratic demand for healthcare subsidies [4] - Federal employees who were furloughed during the shutdown are entitled to full back pay, but delays in processing may occur due to staffing shortages in payroll offices [6][8] Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to the closure of statistical agencies, preventing the release of key economic data such as employment and inflation figures, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [9][10][11] - The absence of October's inflation data may lead to inaccuracies in subsequent months' Consumer Price Index calculations, affecting economic assessments [11]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Daly expresses an open attitude towards the interest rate decision in December [1] Group 1 - Daly's comments indicate a flexible approach to future monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed is considering various economic indicators before making a decision [1] - The statement reflects ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential need for adjustments to interest rates based on economic conditions [1] - This openness may signal to the market that the Fed is closely monitoring inflation and employment data as it prepares for the December meeting [1]

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada closed down by 0.90%, at 30,144.78 points, after a slight opening increase before declining [1] - The Canadian 10-year benchmark government bond yield rose by 11.5 basis points to 3.158%, showing a continuous and smooth increase throughout the day [1] - The two-year Canadian bond yield increased by 8.5 basis points to 2.440%, significantly rising after the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision [1] - The five-year Canadian bond yield rose by 11.7 basis points to 2.742%, reflecting market reactions to interest rate discussions [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices reached all-time closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 78.62 points (0.17%) at 46,519.72, the Nasdaq up 88.89 points (0.39%) at 22,844.05, and the S&P 500 up 4.15 points (0.06%) at 6,715.35 [1] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a longer government shutdown, now expected to last nearly 13 days, up from the previous estimate of 9 days [1] U.S. Stocks - Notable stock movements include Intel (INTC.US) up 3.78%, AMD (AMD.US) up 3.5%, Circle (CRCL.US) up 16.05%, and Coinbase (COIN.US) up 7.48%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) fell 5.11% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.06%, with Alibaba (BABA.US) up 3.59% and NIO (NIO.US) up 3.14% [1] European Stocks - The German DAX30 index rose 287.77 points (1.19%) to 24,437.22, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell 22.98 points (0.24%) to 9,423.45 [2] - The French CAC40 index increased by 89.68 points (1.13%) to 8,056.63, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 66.24 points (1.19%) to 5,647.45 [2] Commodities - Oil prices fell to a near five-month low, with WTI down over 2% to $60.48 per barrel, the lowest closing price since early May [2] - Gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold initially dropping 0.26% to $3,855.64 per ounce, then reaching a record high of $3,896.85 before closing lower [4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin surged above $120,000, marking its highest level since August, with nearly $400 million in forced liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [3] - The largest cryptocurrency has increased over 7% since the beginning of the week, with traders closely monitoring its performance in the fourth quarter [3] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a surprising increase in quarterly vehicle deliveries to 497,099, a 7.4% year-over-year growth, driven by consumers rushing to purchase electric vehicles before federal tax credits expire [8] - Boeing (BA.US) announced a delay in the 777X aircraft's commercial operation to 2027, potentially leading to non-cash accounting losses estimated between $2.5 billion and $4 billion [9] - Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Apple (AAPL.US) to $298 from $240 [9] - Deutsche Bank increased its target price for Lithium Americas (LAC.US) from $2.5 to $6.3 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicated that the committee believes the overall risks are balanced, the economy is in good shape, and the labor market remains robust. Recent data suggests that upward pressure may be greater than previously thought in August. The decision for November will depend on the data, whether to lower interest rates or maintain the current status [1]. Group 1 - The RBA sees overall risks as balanced [1] - The economy is reported to be in good condition [1] - The labor market is described as robust [1] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that upward pressure on the economy may be larger than anticipated in August [1] - The decision regarding interest rates in November will be data-dependent [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT [1] - A surprise 50 basis point rate cut could lead to significant selling pressure on the USD, while a 25 basis point cut with a dovish outlook could weaken the dollar [3] - Market participants will closely monitor Powell's comments regarding labor market and growth outlook, as concerns may negatively impact the USD, while inflation risks could support it [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may indicate a total rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025, which is 25 basis points higher than the June forecast [3] - There may be differing opinions within the committee, with potential for three members advocating a 50 basis point cut, marking a significant divergence not seen since 1988 [3] - The short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD remains slightly bullish, with the RSI above 50 and trading above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages [4] Group 3 - EUR/USD may test resistance levels at 1.1900 and 1.2000, with the first resistance at 1.1830, while support is seen at 1.1680-1.1660 and subsequently at 1.1540 [5]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 2.9% in August, highlighting the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve ahead of a significant interest rate decision [1] - The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded July's rate of 2.7% and aligned with analyst expectations of 2.9% [1] - The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.1%, consistent with forecasts [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is grappling with a weak labor market and political pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates [1] - Traders continue to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with expectations for a slightly accelerated pace of cuts in subsequent meetings [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the possibility of a rate cut in September, suggesting that labor market weakness may mitigate the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision was unanimously agreed upon by the governing council members, indicating a strong consensus on risk assessment [1] Group 1 - The governing council members reached a consensus on the risk assessment, suggesting a unified approach to current economic conditions [1] - Trade agreements are expected to eliminate some uncertainties, potentially stabilizing the economic environment [1]