加拿大油菜籽反倾销裁定
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大越期货菜粕早报-20251126
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:18
CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 1 每日提示 2025-11-26 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601:2400至2460区间震荡 1.基本面:菜粕震荡收涨,豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理,市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去,但库存维持低位支撑盘面, 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数,盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差:现货2530,基差99,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:菜粕库存1.75万吨,上周1.8万吨,周环比减少2.78%,去年同期2.2万吨,同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓:主力 ...
大越期货菜粕早报-20251031
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend lacks clear guidance and remains volatile [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main risks are the decline in domestic aquaculture demand after the long holiday and the potential increase in imported rapeseed arrivals [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal futures rebound after hitting the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce the expected supply in China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has a relatively offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12] - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From October 22nd to 30th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 to 3026, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2440 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 496 and 523 [13] - **Price Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2321 to 2401, and the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2300 to 2338. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2530 [15] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 7702 to 3915, with several decreases during the period [17] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9]
大越期货菜粕早报-20251028
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 05:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. - The market is mainly focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the price. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with reduced production in Ukraine and increased production in Russia offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is 145, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trends**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Trading Data**: From October 17th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2959 - 3003, and the trading volume between 6.51 - 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2480, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 494 - 523 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The main players have shifted from short to long positions, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been decreasing. For example, on October 27th, there were 4050 receipts, a decrease of 210 from the previous day [16].
大越期货菜粕早报-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 and 2400. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions increase with capital inflow, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, it returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, with decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are that domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 9th to 17th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are presented. Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot is relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices rise slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [13][15][16] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content
大越期货菜粕早报-20250924
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2400 and 2460. The market sentiment is neutral. The basis is 93, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is also bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing and the funds are flowing in, which is bearish. The market will return to a volatile pattern in the short term due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 15th to 23rd, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2540 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was mostly 0. The average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2974 - 3038 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume fluctuated between 5.77 - 25.9 tons. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 410 - 458 yuan/ton [13]. - From September 15th to 23rd, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract fluctuated between 2447 - 2528 yuan/ton, the far - month 2605 contract fluctuated between 2328 - 2397 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2540 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - From September 11th to 23rd, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10383 to 9245 [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data other than the fact that the main short positions are decreasing and the funds are flowing in. Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [18]. - The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [23]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [25]. - The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [27]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [35].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250923
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:43
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-23 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601:2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面:菜粕冲高回落,中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性震荡整理,市场回归震荡等待加 拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季,库存维持低位 支撑盘面,但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数,盘面短期受消息面 影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差:现货2620,基差92,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:菜粕库存1.75万吨,上周1.8万吨,周环比减少2.78%,去年同期2.2万吨,同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线下方 ...
大越期货菜粕早报-20250919
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].
菜粕早报-20250918
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2440 - 2500. It has returned to a volatile pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. The market is waiting for further developments [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade consultations are still uncertain, causing the market to decline due to news [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the 2440 - 2500 range. The fundamental situation is neutral, the basis is positive, inventory is positive, the disk is negative, the main position is negative, and the future is expected to be volatile [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains good expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result between China and Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [13]. - From September 9th to 17th, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From September 5th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first increased and then decreased [17]. - The import volume of rapeseed in September remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory remained low, rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided
大越期货菜粕早报-20250904
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:43
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-04 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 近期要闻: 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601:2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面:菜粕震荡回升,豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理,市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季,库存维持低位支撑盘面, 但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数,盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影 响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差:现货2580,基差59,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:菜粕库存2.1万吨,上周2.55万吨,周环比减少17.65%,去年同期2.8万吨,同比减 少25%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日 ...
大越期货菜粕早报-20250819
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the supply - demand situation in the domestic market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal shows a volatile upward trend. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling and shows a relatively strong volatile pattern [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. - The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Multiple and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to Fall**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the possibility of a small - probability settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week from 27,000 tons last week and up 14.29% year - on - year from 28,000 tons in the same period last year. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [8][23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].