Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The treasury bond futures are expected to be in low - level volatile consolidation in the short term [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock and weakening", and the overall view is "shock". The core logic is that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "shock and weakening", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has subsided, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is weak. In the medium and long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the Fed's interest rate cut has greatly reduced the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, so future monetary policy is likely to be loose [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility. The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, while the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures were all volatile and declined. According to the macro - economic data in August, credit data was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and inflation data was weak, increasing the expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The external monetary environment turning loose weakens the constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the fourth quarter still exists. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. As treasury bond futures have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied expectation of interest rate cuts has been reflected, and the short - term rebound space is limited [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于短期内全面降息的必要性不足，短期内市场利率下行空间 有限，国债期货继续上行的动能有所不足，8 月底至 9 月初的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they are likely to be in an oscillatory consolidation phase with limited upside and downside potential. In the medium - term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, there is a relatively high possibility of an upward trend [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded oscillatoryly yesterday. Recently, the stock market has entered a short - term adjustment, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. Market interest rates are restricted by policy rates, limiting their upward space and causing treasury bond futures to bottom out. However, due to the lack of necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the focus on structural easing, the short - term rebound space of treasury bond futures is limited. In the future, the monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has weakened, leaving room for interest rate cuts and increasing the long - term upward possibility of treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short - term. The short - term view for TL2509 is shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening, and the mid - term view is shock. For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - weakening, the mid - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the variety TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the mid - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weakening, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all Treasury bond futures rebounded with shocks. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of market interest rates is limited, providing support for Treasury bond futures. The latest PMI data shows that the macro - economy has some resilience but still needs policy support, and the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. In the short term, there is no need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the focus is on structural easing to support technology and boost consumption. Recently, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has been rising, greatly reducing the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate, and there is still room for an interest rate cut in the future. However, from the perspective of the capital side, the risk appetite in the stock market is strong, which has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing the demand for bond purchases. Therefore, the rebound space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on treasury bond futures is that they will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upside and downside potential. For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with the core logic being a structurally loose monetary policy [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The long - term upward logic of treasury bonds is relatively solid due to supportive long - term monetary policies and low probability of interest rate hikes. However, in the short - term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed by factors such as strong macro - economic resilience, eased external risks, loan subsidy policies for consumption, and rising risk appetite in the stock market. Still, treasury bond futures have strong support due to the rapid recovery of market interest rates and the anchoring effect of policy rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is a structurally loose monetary policy [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined. Long - term monetary policies are supportive, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bonds solid. But in the short - term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Treasury bond futures still have strong support, and they will mainly fluctuate in the short - term with limited upside and downside [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, while ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose slightly. The capital market became looser. After the cross - quarter, the capital is expected to remain loose, but it's not enough to break the current low - volatility state. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosts short - term market sentiment, and the bond market has upward potential [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The table shows the current prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes, and CTD bonds of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. For example, the T2509 contract had a current price of 109.105, a price change of 0.00%, a trading volume of 64,900, an open interest of 206,020, and a daily position change of - 499 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. The capital market became looser, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - type institutions down by over 4bp to 1.31%, and the seven - day repurchase rate down by over 3bp [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 452.1 billion yuan [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS main basis was - 0.0293, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TF main basis was 0.0001, the T main basis was 0.16671, and the TL main basis was 0.2747, all indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which were bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5] 8. Expectation Analysis - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded. In May, the financial data was reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans were significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its second - quarter regular meeting and suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The capital market remained loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is generally favorable, with most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and the ultra - long end performing slightly stronger. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.21%. The policy easing pattern remains unchanged, and the money market is expected to be optimistic, leaving room for the bond market to improve. However, it is waiting for new stimulating factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The bond market is warm, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly down. Treasury bond futures rose, and the money market changed from tight to balanced. The overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions edged up slightly, while the seven - day repurchase rate dropped 5 bp. The policy easing pattern persists, and the bond market has room to rise [2]. - **Money Supply**: On June 20, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 202.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 41.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts shows that the cash bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract shows that the cash bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trends**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with an increase in long positions. The T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - **Expectations**: In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The May financial data matches the real - economy operation, and the growth rates of social financing, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. After the impact of the tariff war suspension is quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut are implemented, the money market remains loose [4]. 3.2 Main Contract Market Elements | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 109.150 | +0.02% | 88,700 | 293,116 | 4,332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.275 | +0.02% | 79,000 | 240,303 | 2,851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.544 | +0.02% | 55,500 | 188,500 | - 1,405 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 121.32 | +0.21% | 106,200 | 152,375 | 1,480 | 200012.IB | [7]