投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货的跌幅较大。随着上周国债期货的震荡 反弹，国债到期收益率走低，体现出一定的央行降息预期，但是央 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡反弹。近期央行公开市场净投放流动性，呵护年末市场流动性。中 长期来看，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，明年货币政策环境偏向宽松，降息降准政策 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡反弹。国债期货经过连续回调，支撑力量开始显现。从宏观基本面来 看，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，明年货币政策环境偏向宽松，降息 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行公开市场净投放流动性，对国债期货价格起到一 定支撑作用 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。由于短期内宏观经济数据仍具韧性，全面降息的紧迫性不 强，央行货币政策框架由总量扩张转为效率优化和结构 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年11月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国内债市整体走暖，利率债收益率多数下行；国债期货主力合约齐升，30年期主力合约涨0.09%。央行开展1955亿元逆回购操作，净投放 1300亿元，银行间市场资金面均衡中改善，存款类机构隔夜回购利率降9bp至1.41%附近。 2、资金面：11月12日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了了1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1955亿元，中标量1955亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日655亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1300亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差-0.0174，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0357，现券贴水期货，偏空。T主力基差0.08 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。从宏观基本面来看，由于内需有效需求不足的问题仍存， 中长期来看 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillation and consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data, the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward space of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is generally loose, and Treasury bond futures have strong support. Overall, Treasury bond futures will maintain an oscillatory and consolidatory state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range yesterday. As market interest rates declined, the upward space of Treasury bond futures was limited. In the short term, the strong resilience of macro - economic data reduced the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts. In the long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy is generally loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will resume trading of treasury bonds in the open market. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the decline intensifying in the evening. Treasury bond futures rose collectively, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32%. The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan. The inter - bank market liquidity tightened significantly, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions jumped more than 13bp to 1.45% [2]. - The central bank has increased the amount of MLF renewals for the eighth consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line. The CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the fifth consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, the first cut this year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's actions led to changes in bond yields and futures prices. The 30 - year "25 Extra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" yield declined by 5.75bp, and the 10 - year "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 16" yield declined by 5bp. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32% [2]. - **Funding situation**: On October 27, the central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 148.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The TS main contract basis was - 0.0023 (spot discount to futures, bearish). The TF main contract basis was 0.0850 (spot premium to futures, somewhat bullish). The T main contract basis was 0.1987 (spot premium to futures, bullish), and the TL main contract basis was 0.3712 (spot premium to futures, bullish) [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, a neutral situation [3]. - **Market trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were upward, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Main positions**: The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, with long positions increasing. The T main contract had a net long position, but long positions decreased [4]. - **Contract data**: | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.175 | 0.15% | 75942 | 229240 | 2285 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.745 | 0.12% | 58124 | 134170 | 4746 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.388 | 0.05% | 29975 | 67050 | - 122 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 115.40 | 0.32% | 113706 | 141776 | 2710 | 220008.IB | [7] 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis - No specific text - based analysis of spot bonds is provided, but there are charts related to DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads [8][11][12]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - There are charts showing the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CFFEX treasury bond futures [14][17][18]