投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 货币政策偏向结构性宽松 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。从宏观基本面的角度来看，中长期货币政策偏向 支持性，利率上升的可能性较低，国债中长期向上的逻辑较为牢靠。不过，目前宏观经济表现 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, while ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose slightly. The capital market became looser. After the cross - quarter, the capital is expected to remain loose, but it's not enough to break the current low - volatility state. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosts short - term market sentiment, and the bond market has upward potential [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The table shows the current prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes, and CTD bonds of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. For example, the T2509 contract had a current price of 109.105, a price change of 0.00%, a trading volume of 64,900, an open interest of 206,020, and a daily position change of - 499 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. The capital market became looser, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - type institutions down by over 4bp to 1.31%, and the seven - day repurchase rate down by over 3bp [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 452.1 billion yuan [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS main basis was - 0.0293, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TF main basis was 0.0001, the T main basis was 0.16671, and the TL main basis was 0.2747, all indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which were bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5] 8. Expectation Analysis - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded. In May, the financial data was reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans were significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its second - quarter regular meeting and suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The capital market remained loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is generally favorable, with most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and the ultra - long end performing slightly stronger. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.21%. The policy easing pattern remains unchanged, and the money market is expected to be optimistic, leaving room for the bond market to improve. However, it is waiting for new stimulating factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The bond market is warm, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly down. Treasury bond futures rose, and the money market changed from tight to balanced. The overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions edged up slightly, while the seven - day repurchase rate dropped 5 bp. The policy easing pattern persists, and the bond market has room to rise [2]. - **Money Supply**: On June 20, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 202.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 41.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts shows that the cash bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract shows that the cash bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trends**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with an increase in long positions. The T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - **Expectations**: In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The May financial data matches the real - economy operation, and the growth rates of social financing, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. After the impact of the tariff war suspension is quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut are implemented, the money market remains loose [4]. 3.2 Main Contract Market Elements | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 109.150 | +0.02% | 88,700 | 293,116 | 4,332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.275 | +0.02% | 79,000 | 240,303 | 2,851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.544 | +0.02% | 55,500 | 188,500 | - 1,405 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 121.32 | +0.21% | 106,200 | 152,375 | 1,480 | 200012.IB | [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a treasury bond futures morning report released by Dayue Futures on June 6, 2025, covering market review, bond analysis, and future outlook [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The 30 - year contract (TL2509) dropped 0.16%, while the 5 - year (TF2509) and 2 - year (TS2509) contracts rose 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [7] - The T2509 contract closed at 108.720, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 88,700 and an open interest of 293,116 [7] Group 3: Bond Analysis - Bank - to - bank major interest rates showed a mixed trend. Short - term bonds continued to warm up, with yields dropping over 1bp, while the 10 - year and above bonds were sluggish. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.16%, 0.02%, and 0.04% respectively, but the 10 - year contract declined 0.01% [3] - On June 5, the central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were - 0.0721, - 0.0084, and - 0.0138 respectively, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was 0.6076, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] - The available deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 13,594 billion, 14,935 billion, and 23,599 billion respectively, showing a neutral position [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line was upward, showing a bullish signal [3] - The TS main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The TF main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The T main contract had a net long position with decreasing longs [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, the issuance of government bonds helped accelerate the growth of social financing scale. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the impact of the tariff war suspension was quickly released and the reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the capital continued to be loose. With the central bank maintaining quantitative tools, the momentum for continuous adjustment in the bond market was limited. In the future, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 27日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均延续震荡走势，全天窄幅整理。中长期来看，政策面适度宽松，目前的 国债价格基本没有隐含的降息预期，国债期货底部具备较强支撑。另外由于国内政策面效果需要等待 经济指标验证，当前国内实体部门的信贷需求偏弱，而海外美联储货币政策鹰派对汇率端有所抑制， 短期内国内继续降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行空间受限。总的来说，预计短期内国债期货保持震 荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。从中长期的角度看，外部环境不确定性仍较高，这就需要 稳定的内部环境，因此未来政策面在稳定内需方面将持续发力，货币环境 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货涨跌不一，银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双升，前者大涨超24个bp，后者上行近2个bp。 官方及财新PMI数据均走弱，但央行流动性呵护态度明确，五一长假后资金面预期亦比较乐观，继续关注贸易战进展及后续政策面动向。 2、资金面：4月30日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了5308亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量5308亿元，中标量5308亿元。Wind数 据显示，当日1080亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放4228亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.320，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0400，现券贴水期货，偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting the short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.49% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%. The performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good, with most yields declining [3]. - The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 28, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank has mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. Due to the central bank's cautious policy attitude and the uncertainty of subsequent fiscal policies, the volatility of the bond market may increase [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good [3]. - **Funding situation**: On March 28, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts showed that the spot bonds were at a discount to the futures, which was bearish, while the basis of the TL main contract showed that the spot bonds were at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market trend**: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main positions**: The net positions of TS and TF main contracts were long, with an increase in long positions, while the net position of the T main contract was long, with a decrease in long positions [5]. - **Expectation**: The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method and mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond market volatility may increase due to policy and fiscal uncertainties [5]. 2. Market Review - **Contract details**: For the T2506 contract, the current price was 107.875, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 124,200 and an open interest of 296,151; for the TF2506 contract, the current price was 105.650, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 110,400 and an open interest of 257,868; for the TS2506 contract, the current price was 102.446, unchanged, with a trading volume of 56,900 and an open interest of 150,994; for the TL2506 contract, the current price was 116.00, down 0.49%, with a trading volume of 166,100 and an open interest of 164,282 [8]. 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and the maturity yields of inter - bank treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are basis data for T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 CTD bonds over a period from September 2024 to February 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [15][16][17]