投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于 2 月 LPR 保持不变，短期内央行全面降息的预期回落， 结合财政政策的结构性倾斜，央行货币政策侧重于结构性宽松。叠加假期流动性回流，国债期货上行 动能有所减弱。中长期来看，宏观经济指标有所走弱说明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来降息预 期仍存，因此国债期货具有较强支 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：假期前最后一天国债期货均震荡整理。由于临近春节，现金需求上升，资金面流动性有所 趋紧，国债期货上行动能减弱。宏观方面，有效需求不足的问题仍存，短期内全面降息的可能性较低， ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The main reason for the weakening of the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is that as the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds matures and falls to around 1.8%, and the liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to take profits increases. Although the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, there are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is the low possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens due to the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and approaching Spring Festival liquidity tightness. There are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations despite the low short - term possibility. Overall, Treasury bond futures will be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in the short term and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upward space of Treasury bond futures. With the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and the approaching Spring Festival holiday leading to tightened liquidity, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, the latest macro - economic indicators are weak, and there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, so the expectation of future interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of Treasury bond futures in the short term. As the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falls to around 1.8% and liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators and insufficient effective demand keep the expectation of future interest rate cuts, providing support for Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not provided in the report [1][5] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Although they are supported by the need for a loose monetary and credit environment due to weak macro data, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, resulting in limited upward and downward space [1][5] Group 3 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday with a slight increase. Macro data such as December's consumption, investment, and new credit have weakened, and there is still a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary and credit environment is needed, which provides support for Treasury bond futures. However, due to the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and both the upward and downward space is limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to strong resilience in macro - economic indicators and recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Also, rising global geopolitical and trade protection risks increase the demand for capital hedging, which supports Treasury bond prices. Overall, the short - term upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, with a focus on oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", the view reference is "oscillation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Strong macro - economic indicators and recent central bank structural interest rate cuts reduce the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. But insufficient domestic effective demand requires a loose monetary and credit environment in the future, providing support for Treasury bond futures. Additionally, rising global uncertainties increase capital hedging demand, supporting Treasury bond prices. In the short - term, the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, with an oscillation and consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. The investment suggestion for TL2603 is to maintain a range - bound consolidation. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term outlook is range - bound, the medium - term outlook is range - bound, and the intraday outlook is weak. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] 2. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is range - bound. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a relatively large decline. After last week's rebound, the Treasury bond yield decreased, reflecting certain expectations of central bank interest rate cuts. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely maintain strong determination, and the short - term rebound driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited. Additionally, the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in Q1 2026 will bring supply - side pressure, suppressing the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds, especially medium - and long - term Treasury bonds [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] - Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rebounded. Recently, the central bank has made a net injection of liquidity in the open market to support the year - end market liquidity. In the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year tends to be loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, so the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short term, the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, and macro - demand has strong resilience, so there is no urgent need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2603 are oscillate, oscillate, and be weak respectively, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of short - term interest rate cuts is low, while medium - and long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. After continuous corrections, support for treasury bond futures began to emerge. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the internal and external uncertainty risk factors are weak, the market's risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is no need for further interest rate cuts within the year, so the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5].